Lord Frieza
Member
Quist is a Democrat
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Montana US House Special Election Thread [GOP Hold]
- Thread starter Mr. RPG
- Start date
Quist is a Democrat
RPGCrazied
Member
Oh okay. Even better. Its too bad I don't live in Montana, so I can't vote.
Tallshortman
Member
But that's where Gianforte lives.
Sometimes I wish this were Britain and not just because I'm an occasional Anglophile. Because the real story here is swing, or defection level. If local Republican seats where Democrats don't usually win are collapsing because formerly-discouraged blue voters are basically going for broke, that's a serious story. If Montana at-large, a seat far beyond the left's grasp in the past, goes down to the wire at great expense, that's a serious story for the GOP.
Republicans doing badly in their own seats is a serious story for the next election, if the opposition can keep the momentum going (see also local electoral cycles in the U.K. from 1992 to 1997, with Conservative voters showing exhaustion and discouragement and Labour taking the map by storm at the end of that term). The map becomes a lot harder for the Republicans to defend if safe seats are actually not safe, or are seeing 20 point shifts in one cycle.
Republicans doing badly in their own seats is a serious story for the next election, if the opposition can keep the momentum going (see also local electoral cycles in the U.K. from 1992 to 1997, with Conservative voters showing exhaustion and discouragement and Labour taking the map by storm at the end of that term). The map becomes a lot harder for the Republicans to defend if safe seats are actually not safe, or are seeing 20 point shifts in one cycle.
True. We've all been in hiding since yesterday. I hear he's roaming around looking for people to bodyslam.
BrokenFiction
Member
And we're two weeks out from the Georgia 6th special election. If Ossoff takes that, the GOP starts panicking.
Lys Skygge
Member
Go Quist! Love the state of Montana. My plan is to move to Missoula within the next couple of years
I'm probably a little biased because I grew up near Bozeman (Belgrade), but Gaz is right.
Though Missoula is still pretty great.
Why Bozeman over Missoula? Both are great little college towns but Missoula is a bit larger with more going on, imho.
Lys Skygge
Member
Like I said, I'm a bit biased because I grew up there
. But if you're into skiing, Bozeman is close to Bridger Bowl and Big Sky. I also prefer the hiking that's around Bozeman (I'm an avid outdoorsman). But if you're more of a city person you can't go wrong with Missoula. And it does have some pretty great hiking as well.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Did you hide the tables?
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
I hear it has a 30% chance for paralysis, too.
Generally, yes, but that's not the point I'm trying to make. I'm mostly commenting on how much the voting can be swung by the late breaking news. Substantial early voting mitigates the effect of late-breaking swings.
The Majority Report, funny, daily and informative.
Hooligan69
Member
This. He's the perfect combo of what the current GOP loves and masturbates to daily.
Rich. Assaults filthy liberal media. Supports creationism causes. Russian ties that are just "fake news".
He's got it all, and will still win because the right wing is so poisoned, nothing short of a civil war will break that devotion to that mindset.
I hate to be defeatist, but it's our reality, and I don't see it changing anytime soon. How can it change, truly?
I'd say they beat that seat into submission, and broke the Democrats chance of winning.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Transistor
Banned
Good luck Montana! Please show America that there is still sanity left in this country
SocksAndShoes
Banned
We can always trust ole Paul with saying the blatantly obvious thing possible, and saying it hours late.
Laevateinn
Member
How about Ryan apologize for all the oxygen he has wasted.
BrokenFiction
Member
So brave. Profile in courage.
You can't, actually, since Congress has no provisions for proxy voting. Getting jailed for a crime pretty much means expulsion from the body because otherwise your district/state is going without representation while you sit in jail.
According to toadies in the GOP caucus, though, Gianforte is welcome to sit with them if he doesn't go to jail.
RPGCrazied
Member
This was like 15 hours ago? Little late Paul. I hope his loses. Maybe you will pull your head out of your ass and not be a partisan hack.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
Be nice. It takes him that long to read the news and formulate a response.
tearsintherain
Member
So will everyone just say the election wasn't really that important when the republican wins anyways,after doing a WWE move on a reporter less than 24 hours before the election?
Says the man willing to do more than body slam children with his healthcare law.
People following this election never expected a Democrat win. Quist wasn't a good candidate and had his own baggage. The takeaway was Republicans winning the seat by 1 - 5 points as opposed fo R+20.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This election is important no matter the outcome, and it has nothing to do with actually getting a body in a seat in Congress.
These special elections before a midterm serve to show us a picture of where the electorate is going towards in 2018.
Nobody except complete political novices were expecting a Democratic win here. The reason for the interest in the race is that people can potentially use swing from Trump+20 to R+?? to start estimating what the overall swing in the country's lean, and what house seats could potentially be in play for 2018.
It's the Georgia election people believe is an actual tossup, there's never been any polling that had the Democrats winning this one, the notable thing was it going from +20 to only +5 or so. If Quist wins it will be a big surprise, even with this assault from the Republican.
MisterR
Member
This is a state that went for Trump by +20 points, it would be a shock if the Repubs lost. The fact that they've had to spend millions of dollars defending a seat this red is already a win.
And the fact they have to now defend a member who assaulted a pressmember which is another thing that adds on to show about the party is a plus.
chekhonte
Member
Wow, really like The Daily. Really good reporting. Especially for a podcast.
I read a little bit about Quist and he hits a lot of the right notes on being an appealing Democratic candidate in general and sounds nothing like a blue dog. I still would like to hear more about this guy if he wins but it would be a very big deal if this guy won in a traditionally red district, regardless of what minor deviations he could have with mainstream Democratic ideology.
Fine Ham Abounds
Member
Not to be a negative Nancy, but the current environment makes me suspect people will come out of the woodwork to vote for someone strong and bold enough to bodyslam filthy lying fake news media types, even if it was Fox. This is the strength we need in Congress to start throwing libs in camps.
I might be at the theater watching the new Pirates film when the race is finally called.
The key county to look out for is Yellowstone. As long as Quist makes it close, he'll likely win the election. Lake county is another swing county that almost always votes for the winner of the race.
The key county to look out for is Yellowstone. As long as Quist makes it close, he'll likely win the election. Lake county is another swing county that almost always votes for the winner of the race.
super-heated plasma
Member
Any idea when we will be getting info on how its going?
Maiden Voyage
Gold™ Member
Polls close at 8pm MST. About 2.75 hours from now.
Pod Save America is fantastic.
Tranqueris
Banned
Not gonna lie, I'm somewhat shocked that Paul Ryan did even the bare minimum here.
Maybe even because of the assault.
RPGCrazied
Member
Its a close race, when it shouldn't be close. He knows the danger of losing this.
Unknown One
Member
The cynical side of me says even with the body slam, he'll win.
2/3rds of the votes have already been cast, if it was close leading into that it could sway things one way or the other (what's sad is there is an equal chance him attacking a reporter could drive out support from previously tepid individuals as there are from people turned off from the behavior) but the larger population it might be too late for it to even matter. Quist likely will lose, but I will be jumping with joy if he does win and will settle with this getting into the single digits in difference.
If he made 100+ k USD by beating up reporter it also got him few votes.
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