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[RC0101]

Even if he wins his popularity is shot. A vocal minority may be celebrating what he did but the election office here has been getting inundated with calls from voters wanting to change their vote.
If the Democrats are smart they will gear up for 18 and put more of an effort in spending wise than what they did for Quist.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Even if he wins his popularity is shot. A vocal minority may be celebrating what he did but the election office here has been getting inundated with calls from voters wanting to change their vote. If the Democrats are smart they will great up for 18 and put more of an effort in spending wise than what they did for Quist.

Really? Well, that's good. Shame there's no process for changing votes mail-in there.

 

[Surfinn]

Even if he wins his popularity is shot. A vocal minority may be celebrating what he did but the election office here has been getting inundated with calls from voters wanting to change their vote.

After hearing about the 100k bullshit, this gives me hope

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

This is a state that went for Trump by +20 points, it would be a shock if the Repubs lost. The fact that they've had to spend millions of dollars defending a seat this red is already a win.

Gianforte lost by 7 in that exact same election. Montana is pretty bi-partisan in state races. If I recall, they have a democrat senator and governor.

edit- that said, I'm not sure how much the assault will affect things. Part of me hopes that those who are happy he assaulted a reporter are die-hard conservatives whose votes were already guaranteed. I'd like to think a lot of level headed people either changed their vote or abstained from voting entirely, and that some Quist supporters were motivated to cast a vote even if they felt it wouldn't change the outcome or whatever other reason people use to stay home.

 

[madstarr12]

I guess Greg being calm isn't his forte.

 

[Laevateinn]

If he made 100+ k USD by beating up reporter it also got him few votes.

The kind of monster who would donate to him because of this already voted for him.

 

[RC0101]

Really? Well, that's good. Shame there's no process for changing votes mail-in there.

Yeah Linda McCulloch who is the Secretary of State was on CNN saying they have been getting calls from voters wanting to switch their votes.

Polls close in under 2 hours here, fingers crossed.

Edit - here is an article as well.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/25/politics/montana-special-election-turnout/

 

[Mr. RPG]

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

 

[RPGCrazied]

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

Beaverhead
–  
–  
–  
0%
23.6%
69.2%
Big Horn
–  
–  
–  
0%
49.4%
43.7%
Blaine
–  
–  
–  
0%
44.8%
47.2%
Broadwater
–  
–  
–  
0%
18.3%
74.9%
Carbon
–  
–  
–  
0%
30.5%
62.6%


Jesus, this really is Trump country.

 

[RootCause]

Yeah Linda McCulloch who is the Secretary of State was on CNN saying they have been getting calls from voters wanting to switch their votes.

Polls close in under 2 hours here, fingers crossed.

Edit - here is an article as well.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/25/politics/montana-special-election-turnout/

is that even allowed? lol

 

[Aaronrules380]

is that even allowed? lol

It's not

 

[whyamihere]

@ElectProject
#MTAL returned mail ballots: 272,218. With ballots dropped off at polling places until 8pm could pass 2012's 289,920 for 2nd all-time volume

367,963 voted for MT-AL in 2014. If this is ~2/3 of the total vote, would probably end up being around 435k~ for the final vote. Lower than 2012 (479,740) and 2016 (507,831), but impressive for a special.

 

[Marvie_3]

Really hoping the Dems can flip this

 

[RPGCrazied]

Really hoping the Dems can flip this

After seeing the interviews today from voters still voting for the R, and the fact Trump won here by 20 points, doesn't give me a ton of faith.

 

[whyamihere]

After seeing the interviews today from voters still voting for the R, and the fact Trump won here by 20 points, doesn't give me a ton of faith.

I mean, you're talking about a self-selected group of people who still chose to go to the polls. I wouldn't read much into what Someone Tells A Reporter!! because the people who were inclined to vote for Gianforte and then saw this probably aren't going to vote! Or talk about it.

Trump winning by 20 is a better barometer.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

After seeing the interviews today from voters still voting for the R, and the fact Trump won here by 20 points, doesn't give me a ton of faith.

I think it is still close, but either way if the R does win it won't be by a lot.

 

[RC0101]

I think it is still close, but either way if the R does win it won't be by a lot.

Yeah I think it will be within 5% or less.

 

[DarthWoo]

Not too familiar with Montana laws, but how easy would it be to gather support for a recall election?

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Yeah I think it will be within 5% or less.

Which is pretty good if we don't win here considering how much Trump won.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Wild guess creationist cunt wins by 3.5%

 

[Escape Goat]

If the nut job wins Paul Ryan has to say he condones assault or refuse and Montana has a special election.

 

[Quixzlizx]

If the nut job wins Paul Ryan has to say he condones assault or refuse and Montana has a special election.

He's already said he plans to respect the wishes of Montana's voters.

 

[NihonTiger90]

Keep in mind: whoever wins this essentially has to turn around and run another election for their seat in 2018. And if it's likely Gianforte, he's going to have to deal with this issue again. And from PoliGAF, people have been calling the Montana Secretary of State all day trying to change their votes.

 

[Tallshortman]

If the nut job wins Paul Ryan has to say he condones assault or refuse and Montana has a special election.

Ryan couldn't block him even if he wanted to, the house would have to remove him after the fact.

 

[Escape Goat]

He's already said he plans to respect the wishes of Montana's voters.

Well see about after Gionforte is back in the news after his conviction of misdemeanor assault. GOP is already facing an image problem. This also is good campaign fodder for Dems.

 

[carlsojo]

Keep in mind: whoever wins this essentially has to turn around and run another election for their seat in 2018. And if it's likely Gianforte, he's going to have to deal with this issue again. And from PoliGAF, people have been calling the Montana Secretary of State all day trying to change their votes.

People will forget about this in less than a month.

Spoiler

Unfortunately.

 

[IrishNinja]

Well see about after Gionforte is back in the news after his conviction of misdemeanor assault. GOP is already facing an image problem. This also is good campaign fodder for Dems.

Even if he wins his popularity is shot. A vocal minority may be celebrating what he did but the election office here has been getting inundated with calls from voters wanting to change their vote.
If the Democrats are smart they will gear up for 18 and put more of an effort in spending wise than what they did for Quist.

taking these little victories where i can get em, hoping it builds to a bloodbath next year

 

[chekhonte]

Nate Silver was saying on the last fivethirtyeight podcast hat if the Montana Special Election comes within single digits that it might be a sign of Democratic take over. I don't think the Rep. candidate beating the shit out of a reporter was part of that prediction.

 

[Aurongel]

Nate Silver was saying on the last fivethirtyeight podcast hat if the Montana Special Election comes within single digits that it might be a sign of Democratic take over. I don't think the Rep. candidate beating the shit out of a reporter was part of that prediction.

I believe he attributed much of that originally to Trump's strong base eroding in the past few months. In that state especially, much of Trump's devout supporters faded a bit compared to when he was elected. There's not really any data on how something last minute like this can sway an election so he remained cagey on that.

 

[RPGCrazied]

Polls close in like 30 minutes?

 

[RC0101]

Polls close in like 30 minutes?

Yes

 

[NihonTiger90]

Polls close in like 30 minutes?

Roughly, yes. But it'll take some time for results to come in due to Montana's bigness. And ruralness. And big ruralness. But as mentioned in the OP, there's a few places to watch out for that could be early indicators one way or the other.

 

[RPGCrazied]

Yes

Roughly, yes. But it'll take some time for results to come in due to Montana's bigness. And ruralness. And big ruralness. But as mentioned in the OP, there's a few places to watch out for that could be early indicators one way or the other.

Might as well go to bed an wake up to the aftermath. :/

 

[Vincent Alexander]

They say to expect first results in around 9:25 PM CST.

 

[Escape Goat]

Might as well go to bed an wake up to the aftermath. :/

Sounds like election night. Woke up with a gut punch.

 

[sturgboski]

Sounds like election night. Woke up with a gut punch.

It felt like Bruce Willis at the beginning of Unbreakable, only I was also throwing up.

 

[whyamihere]

Montana is very slow at counting votes btw

 

[Sobriquet]

Not too familiar with Montana laws, but how easy would it be to gather support for a recall election?

https://ballotpedia.org/Laws_governing_recall_in_Montana

Montana is very slow at counting votes btw

Yeah this'll most likely be going into the morning

 

[RPGCrazied]

Sounds like election night. Woke up with a gut punch.

Lmao. I thought I was still asleep that day, in some sort of nightmare. Was in shock for a good while.

 

[Ithil]

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

There is a county in Montana named "Petroleum"?

 

[Vincent Alexander]

I need to go play a game for a bit and give my "F5" a rest on these live election results.

 

[TheAbsolution]

I need to go play a game for a bit and give my "F5" a rest on these live election results.

Yeah, go ahead and do that. We likely won't know who won until the morning.

 

[Tranqueris]

Not a fan of these west coast-ish time zone elections. Forgot where Montana was and thought this would have been wrapped up by now.

 

[RC0101]

Missoula results are in - "First results for Missoula: Quist 19,499. Gianforte 10,866."

https://twitter.com/missoulian/status/867924114278830080

Missoula is a pretty liberal area so not surprising. Results should start rolling on slowly.

 

[Ottaro]

Looks like results are starting to come in.

 

[Sobriquet]

Didn't realize Billings was so conservative. Isn't it the biggest city in Montana?

 

[TestOfTide]

Giantforte 36113
Quist 29548
Wicks 4531

 

[RC0101]

Didn't realize Billings was so conservative. Isn't it the biggest city in Montana?

It is. It's a big Ag and oil area though.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Giantforte 36113
Quist 29548
Wicks 4531

That seems bad...

 

[Ashodin]

Results coming in, seems equal so far. Gianforte is only 2k ahead.