Montana US House Special Election Thread [GOP Hold]

Even if he wins his popularity is shot. A vocal minority may be celebrating what he did but the election office here has been getting inundated with calls from voters wanting to change their vote.
If the Democrats are smart they will gear up for 18 and put more of an effort in spending wise than what they did for Quist.
 
Even if he wins his popularity is shot. A vocal minority may be celebrating what he did but the election office here has been getting inundated with calls from voters wanting to change their vote. If the Democrats are smart they will great up for 18 and put more of an effort in spending wise than what they did for Quist.

Really? Well, that's good. Shame there's no process for changing votes mail-in there.
 
Even if he wins his popularity is shot. A vocal minority may be celebrating what he did but the election office here has been getting inundated with calls from voters wanting to change their vote.

After hearing about the 100k bullshit, this gives me hope
 
This is a state that went for Trump by +20 points, it would be a shock if the Repubs lost. The fact that they've had to spend millions of dollars defending a seat this red is already a win.

Gianforte lost by 7 in that exact same election. Montana is pretty bi-partisan in state races. If I recall, they have a democrat senator and governor.

edit- that said, I'm not sure how much the assault will affect things. Part of me hopes that those who are happy he assaulted a reporter are die-hard conservatives whose votes were already guaranteed. I'd like to think a lot of level headed people either changed their vote or abstained from voting entirely, and that some Quist supporters were motivated to cast a vote even if they felt it wouldn't change the outcome or whatever other reason people use to stay home.
 
@ElectProject
#MTAL returned mail ballots: 272,218. With ballots dropped off at polling places until 8pm could pass 2012's 289,920 for 2nd all-time volume

367,963 voted for MT-AL in 2014. If this is ~2/3 of the total vote, would probably end up being around 435k~ for the final vote. Lower than 2012 (479,740) and 2016 (507,831), but impressive for a special.
 
After seeing the interviews today from voters still voting for the R, and the fact Trump won here by 20 points, doesn't give me a ton of faith.

I mean, you're talking about a self-selected group of people who still chose to go to the polls. I wouldn't read much into what Someone Tells A Reporter!! because the people who were inclined to vote for Gianforte and then saw this probably aren't going to vote! Or talk about it.

Trump winning by 20 is a better barometer.
 
Not too familiar with Montana laws, but how easy would it be to gather support for a recall election?
 
Keep in mind: whoever wins this essentially has to turn around and run another election for their seat in 2018. And if it's likely Gianforte, he's going to have to deal with this issue again. And from PoliGAF, people have been calling the Montana Secretary of State all day trying to change their votes.
 
Keep in mind: whoever wins this essentially has to turn around and run another election for their seat in 2018. And if it's likely Gianforte, he's going to have to deal with this issue again. And from PoliGAF, people have been calling the Montana Secretary of State all day trying to change their votes.

People will forget about this in less than a month.
Unfortunately.
 
Well see about after Gionforte is back in the news after his conviction of misdemeanor assault. GOP is already facing an image problem. This also is good campaign fodder for Dems.

Even if he wins his popularity is shot. A vocal minority may be celebrating what he did but the election office here has been getting inundated with calls from voters wanting to change their vote.
If the Democrats are smart they will gear up for 18 and put more of an effort in spending wise than what they did for Quist.

taking these little victories where i can get em, hoping it builds to a bloodbath next year
 
Nate Silver was saying on the last fivethirtyeight podcast hat if the Montana Special Election comes within single digits that it might be a sign of Democratic take over. I don't think the Rep. candidate beating the shit out of a reporter was part of that prediction.
 
Nate Silver was saying on the last fivethirtyeight podcast hat if the Montana Special Election comes within single digits that it might be a sign of Democratic take over. I don't think the Rep. candidate beating the shit out of a reporter was part of that prediction.

I believe he attributed much of that originally to Trump's strong base eroding in the past few months. In that state especially, much of Trump's devout supporters faded a bit compared to when he was elected. There's not really any data on how something last minute like this can sway an election so he remained cagey on that.
 
Top Bottom