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[balladofwindfishes]

It's either going to be Trump on the first ballot, or someone like Paul Ryan on the 4th+. If Ted Cruz manages to ground game his way to snatching enough delegates on the floor to put him over the top, then it will actually be pretty impressive and might speak well of his chances in the general.

His chances in the general are worse than Trump's. He has all of Trump's toxic ideals without Trump's fan club. Cruz will get all the solid Red states and nothing more. Him being able to convince some delegates to go against Trump doesn't mean anything for the general racing against a popular Democrat candidate and with toxic ideals the majority of the country doesn't agree with at all.

 

[EmSeta]

So if Trump falls, the alternative is Ted Cruz? He's almost just as bad.

 

[border]

So what exactly happens to the GOP if delegates choose another candidate, subjugating the will of their voters??

 

[davepoobond]

I think with all of this delegate stuff trump will definitely go 3rd party on the ballot

 

[Calamari41]

His chances in the general are worse than Trump's. He has all of Trump's toxic ideals without Trump's fan club. Cruz will get all the solid Red states and nothing more. Him being able to convince some delegates to go against Trump doesn't mean anything for the general racing against a popular Democrat candidate and with toxic ideals the majority of the country doesn't agree with at all.

I don't fully disagree with you (I think Cruz is toxic and Trump would perform better), but I wouldn't describe Hillary Clinton as "popular." Her negatives are only outdone by Trump's, if I recall the polling numbers correctly.

 

[Anoregon]

So if Trump falls, the alternative is Ted Cruz? He's almost just as bad.

He's probably worse.

 

[Wag]

He's probably worse.

Not probably...

 

[Tom_Cody]

So Trump loses and runs as an independent, wrecking what little chance Cruz had at a win and fucking things up downticket for the whole party, right?

I think it's pretty much a guarantee that he'll be in the general election one way or another.

Can you imagine three-way general election debates with Trump, Cruz, and Clinton?

Trump will probably just go nuclear on Cruz out of spite.

Imagine how blue the electoral map will look.

He can't run as a third party candidate at this point. States have deadlines to register for their ballots and it's now too late. That ship has sailed.

This topic was discussed about a month ago when the national republican establishment was weighing whether they should launch a conservative third-party candidate to go against Trump. They decided to back Cruz instead.

 

[Jacksinthe]

All i know for sure is whoever the GOP nominates - we are in for a good laugh.

 

[CrazyDude]

I don't fully disagree with you (I think Cruz is toxic and Trump would perform better), but I wouldn't describe Hillary Clinton as "popular." Her negatives are only outdone by Trump's, if I recall the polling numbers correctly.

Majority of polls has Clinton beating Cruz.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

He can't run as a third party candidate at this point. States have deadlines to register for their ballots and it's now too late. That ship has sailed.

This topic was discussed about a month ago when the national republican establishment was weighing whether they should launch a conservative third-party candidate to go against Trump. They decided to back Cruz instead.

He could if a third party accepts him as their candidate.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

He can't run as a third party candidate at this point. States have deadlines to register for their ballots and it's now too late. That ship has sailed.

This topic was discussed about a month ago when the national republican establishment was weighing whether they should launch a conservative third-party candidate to go against Trump. They decided to back Cruz instead.

He can hop on a ticket of a third party that was already running. No third party will turn down a chance to gain their 15 minutes of fame and be secured into history books.

 

[NimbusD]

If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s probably screwed.

The basic reason is simple. Most of the 2,472 delegates with a vote in Cleveland probably aren’t going to like Trump.

If only it were that simple. There's so much more to consider. Delegates wanting to represent voters and not threaten to tear their party apart is a huge consideration.

 

[Maxim726X]

Trump will likely fall 50-200 delegates short. It's possible he could win enough unallocated delegates to win but I doubt it. I think the last few weeks has destroyed his campaign. The rally riots, his advocacy of violence, and the abortion nonsense probably ensured that GOP power brokers who were once flirting with the idea of Trump not being that bad have flipped back to viewing him as a giant disaster.

Cruz is running the smartest non-incumbent campaign since Obama's 2008 run. His people are exploiting every rule and have seemingly been preparing for a brokered convention for months. If this goes to a second or third ballot I think he'll take the nomination.

Agreed with your analysis until the last point. No way the RNC, if they indeed go to a brokered convention, give it to Cruz who they dislike only slightly less than Trump. And he would also lose a national election, though it remains to be seen if he'll have the same damage to the down ticket moving forward... I think they have to pick the least threatening moderate candidate they can to avoid losing too much ground in 2018.

They have to know they're going to lose the 2016 election no matter what at this point.

 

[shintoki]

If it goes to a convention and Trump loses, that is a stake in the RNC's back. Its not even close in the delegate count or popular vote between Cruz and Trump. The damage to the party will take years to fix. Any outcome will take years.

 

[LCGeek]

Trump has already set the republican party and its bullshit establishment and fascist tactics on a dead end course with a wall. Delegates and the establishments know they will face the holy wrath of hell for robbing Trump, the move itself will turn off plenty and they will lose a lot of voter momentum Trump has built up for republicans.

Me I got the popcorn everyday of the work week out just eating this shit up.

 

[Tom_Cody]

So what exactly happens to the GOP if delegates choose another candidate, subjugating the will of their voters??

Each state has their own rules.

Most delegates are bound to the elected candidate for the first ballot, some are also bound for the second, and some aren't bound at all (and the individually elected delegates can decide who they want to vote for at all stages of the process).

The process basically works like this:

1st Ballot: If someone gets 1237 they win. Trump is the only one likely to be close to this number. This is the subject of the article in the OP.

2nd Ballot: Most of the delegates become unbound. At this point the actual individual delegates can decide who they want to vote for. Same rules, someone needs to get to 1237.

3rd, 4th, 5th, etc Ballots: Same process, but more and more delegates become unbound. This is where is starts to become possible that someone like Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney could become the nominee if the votes continue to be deadlocked a decision can't be made between Trump and Cruz.

TLDR: If Trump can get to 1237 (over very close) he will be the nominee. If not, it will almost certainly be Cruz.

 

[Calamari41]

Majority of polls has Clinton beating Cruz.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

Right, I'm just speaking to the descriptor of "popular" to describe her. She has a large net negative rating in every poll I can find or remember.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Agreed with your analysis until the last point. No way the RNC, if they indeed go to a brokered convention, give it to Cruz who they dislike only slightly less than Trump. And he would also lose a national election, though it remains to be seen if he'll have the same damage to the down ticket moving forward... I think they have to pick the least threatening moderate candidate they can to avoid losing too much ground in 2018.

They have to know they're going to lose the 2016 election no matter what at this point.

So on top of cheating the top voted candidate of the candidacy, they're going to make it even worse by changing the rules at the last minute to not allow Cruz either?

If it goes to the convention, it's either Trump or Cruz. That's it. That's the rules. No other candidates would be eligible. They have to change the rules to allow other candidates and now you've not only alienated Trump supporters, but also Cruz supporters.

It would be a nuclear melt down for the GOP.

 

[Tom_Cody]

He could if a third party accepts him as their candidate.

He can hop on a ticket of a third party that was already running. No third party will turn down a chance to gain their 15 minutes of fame and be secured into history books.

My bad, I guess that is also possible. But how many third-parties are on all 50 ballots?

Even then I simple don't believe he will run third-party. He would be guaranteed to lose every state. He could just snipe from twitter and save himself the embarrassment.

 

[Maxim726X]

So on top of cheating the top voted candidate of the candidacy, they're going to make it even worse by changing the rules at the last minute to not allow Cruz either?

If it goes to the convention, it's either Trump or Cruz. That's it. That's the rules. No other candidates would be eligible. They have to change the rules to allow other candidates and now you've not only alienated Trump supporters, but also Cruz supporters.

It would be a nuclear melt down for the GOP.

Well, it's been made clear over the last few weeks that the 'rules' of the convention are completely bullshit and basically fabricated on the spot, when convenient.

So ultimately the question is this- Will they accept Trump as their candidate, or pick someone not named Trump or Cruz? What will do the least amount of damage to the party moving forward? This is what the RNC has to consider at this point... They're going to eat a shit sandwich either way, but they have to figure out how to make it more palatable for ingestion.

My bad, I guess that is also possible. But how many third-parties are on all 50 ballots?

Even then I simple don't believe he will run third-party. He would be guaranteed to lose every state. He could just snipe from twitter and save himself the embarrassment.

But he doesn't give a shit about that- He wants to placate his ego and shove it up the RNC's ass if they screw him over. What do you think that meeting with him was about a few days ago?

 

[AntraxSuicide]

So on top of cheating the top voted candidate of the candidacy, they're going to make it even worse by changing the rules at the last minute to not allow Cruz either?

If it goes to the convention, it's either Trump or Cruz. That's it. That's the rules. No other candidates would be eligible. They have to change the rules to allow other candidates and now you've not only alienated Trump supporters, but also Cruz supporters.

It would be a nuclear melt down for the GOP.

The GOP is screwed no matter what, and their demographic problems are getting worse. If either Cruz or Trump run, it's just going to ruin them for longer.

That said, their best bet for getting rid of the racists and uber religious crowd is to steal it from Trump and give it to Cruz. If Trump goes to November, he'll lose, and you'll have Cruz back in 2020 talking about "real conservatives" again. But if you snipe Trump here, his loser's complex will kick in and keep him out in 2020. I also believe Cruz loses only a bit worse than Romney, so you avoid some Goldwater or Mondale comparisons.

After Cruz gets blown out this year, you hope for logic to kick in among his base that the country has left them behind and their only options are to leave or catch up. Paul Ryan is literally crossing his fingers for this, but I have my doubts. Too many conservatives I know keep arguing that democrats win because of fraud or lies. After 25 years of bashing Hillary, I suspect they'll refuse to believe she beat their candidate.

 

[Miletius]

I think Nate is right, but I also believe that the consequences for nominating somebody other than Trump, who will most likely have the "most wins," will be too severe for the GOP to consider doing otherwise. Because that's the case I see an alternate for his betting logic:

1) Donald Trump is unlikely to obtain the needed delegate count to win on the first pass
2) A case is made that, regardless of that, he has obtained enough votes that it is the will of the party as a whole that he be nominated.
3) Delegates reluctantly agree with that conclusion and vote for him (perhaps with some kind of protest from the Cruz/Kasich camp)
4) Party unity of maintained at great cost in the general.

I see this outcome as equally likely as an outcome where Cruz somehow crooks his way into the nomination. Cause lets be fair, any claim that Cruz will have to legitimacy about the process will go right out the window.

It's hard to say if Donald gets the nomination outright at this point, a lot of estimates put him as just short of them as of now.

 

[Maxim726X]

I think Nate is right, but I also believe that the consequences for nominating somebody other than Trump, who will most likely have the "most wins," will be too severe for the GOP to consider doing otherwise. Because that's the case I see an alternate for his betting logic:

1) Donald Trump is unlikely to obtain the needed delegate count to win on the first pass
2) A case is made that, regardless of that, he has obtained enough votes that it is the will of the party as a whole that he be nominated.
3) Delegates reluctantly agree with that conclusion and vote for him (perhaps with some kind of protest from the Cruz/Kasich camp)
4) Party unity of maintained at great cost in the general.

I see this outcome as equally likely as an outcome where Cruz somehow crooks his way into the nomination. Cause lets be fair, any claim that Cruz will have to legitimacy about the process will go right out the window.

It's hard to say if Donald gets the nomination outright at this point, a lot of estimates put him as just short of them as of now.

And I ask this question of you as well then- If the party is going to ignore delegate count to steal away the nomination from the rightful candidate, why would they turn around and give their support to someone that the party despises, and someone who is also capable of alienating the national electorate?

 

[Sianos]

If Trump doesn't hit the magic 1237, I expect convention shenanigans of a very yuge degree in an attempt to save the down ticket races and start bailing some water out of the ship with hand pails. It's too little, too late, but maybe it will soften their hit bin the senate.

All according to Obama knows exactly what he's doing.

 

[johnsmith]

Cleveland's streets are going to run red with blood if Trump gets robbed.

 

[Sianos]

Cleveland's streets are going to run red with blood if Trump gets robbed.

It's okay, the convention is being held at a gun-free zone. And we all know that Republicans love those.

 

[Mushroomer25]

And I ask this question of you as well then- If the party is going to ignore delegate count to steal away the nomination from the rightful candidate, why would they turn around and give their support to someone that the party despises, and someone who is also capable of alienating the national electorate?

I've thought the same thing. Betraying the electorate to nominate Cruz is the worst possible outcome for the GOP. They get both the shame of defying popular vote, and elevating a candidate despised by the core of the base. Getting anybody out for Cruz is going to be a challenge, and the anti-Cruz vote from the Democrats could be just as bad as the anti- Trump turnout. His policies are abhorrent enough to be a strong motivator.
So if they have to throw out the primary vote, why not go all the way? Push somebody who at least represents the party. Clearly Kasich thinks that's where this is going, if he's still pumping money into his campaign.

 

[Miletius]

And I ask this question of you as well then- If the party is going to ignore delegate count to steal away the nomination from the rightful candidate, why would they turn around and give their support to someone that the party despises, and someone who is also capable of alienating the national electorate?

There is also a possibility that somebody other than Cruz becomes the nominee. But I see that as remote, even less of a chance than Trump or Cruz being the nominee. There is already a legitimacy problem with nominating somebody other than the person who has obtained the most delegates. To further add to that problem by nominating somebody who has obtained few to no votes at all would be too much, in my opinion. Legitimacy is not a binary variable, I'd argue, there is a sliding scale of legitimacy based on electability and who represents the will of the GOP electorate.

The clear choices in such a scenario would be:

1) Somebody who has obtained some delegates, but a minority (Kasich, Rubio)
-I can't see somebody making a strong case for either. They ran and lost, and there isn't much evidence that they have enough support to be a nominee, especially since they have proven they can't run a nationwide race.

2) Somebody who was not running, but has a strong presence within the party and national recognition. Somebody who has run for President before, probably(Romney, Ryan... somebody else?)
-I would argue that this would be seen as the Washington Elite pretty much stealing the race, so unreasonable. I actually think this is more possible than (1) though.

Based on this, I think Cruz is the only person who occupies the nexus of: Not Trump, but could be seen as an a viable alternative. He has run a national campaign and has succeeded (somewhat) in running it. He has amassed enough delegates that he could be seen as the will of (some) people. Unfortunately he's not liked by many in the party, but you've already seen them coalesce around him to some degree (see Lindsey Graham as an example of that).

 

[aeolist]

If only it were that simple. There's so much more to consider. Delegates wanting to represent voters and not threaten to tear their party apart is a huge consideration.

the kind of people who are republican convention delegates would see a trump nomination as tearing their party apart. no way is he the candidate if it goes past ballot 1.

 

[kmag]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hamKl-su8PE

 

[Toxi]

Nominating Cruz instead of Trump is like lighting yourself on fire in the middle of a snowstorm so you're no longer cold.

 

[Maxim726X]

Nominating Cruz instead of Trump is like lighting yourself on fire in the middle of a snowstorm so you're no longer cold.

This is how I see it as well, but I do see validity to the opposing argument.

Either way, this is going to be incredibly entertaining.

 

[border]

Why do people think that Trump will be such a disaster for down-ticket candidates? All the nutballs he brings out will almost certainly be voting a straight Republican ticket. In theory at least, independents who hate Trump would and could still vote for moderate Republicans in state and Congressional races.

 

[Kathian]

I really dont like these articles. He's favored to win enough states from here on out to win the nomination easily. All these articles about a brokered convention are just written to get hits.

Agreed. Its the same people who said we'd never get to this stage.

 

[Calamari41]

Why do people think that Trump will be such a disaster for down-ticket candidates? All the nutballs he brings out will almost certainly be voting a straight Republican ticket. In theory at least, independents who hate Trump would and could still vote for moderate Republicans in state and Congressional races.

Yeah, it seems to me that a Trump candidacy would help with downticket races. You have the Trump fan club coming out and voting R, and then you also have the #NeverTrumpers voting R down the line except for President. Put Paul Ryan on the ballot and you lock in the #NeverTrump vote, but the Trump fan club stays home.

 

[Maxim726X]

Why do people think that Trump will be such a disaster for down-ticket candidates? All the nutballs he brings out will almost certainly be voting a straight Republican ticket. In theory at least, independents who hate Trump would and could still vote for moderate Republicans in state and Congressional races.

They apparently have some kind of data that indicates this.

If they thought everything was going to be okay with him as the candidate... He'd be the candidate.

 

[GregLombardi]

They will 100% nominate Kasich if they steal it from Trump. He's the only one with the chance in hell of winning against Hillary (presumably the nom).

 

[Kusagari]

Yeah, it seems to me that a Trump candidacy would help with downticket races. You have the Trump fan club coming out and voting R, and then you also have the #NeverTrumpers voting R down the line except for President. Put Paul Ryan on the ballot and you lock in the #NeverTrump vote, but the Trump fan club stays home.

They're probably scared of new Aiken situations every week where their candidates are stuck doing nothing but answering questions about shit Trump said.

 

[DrForester]

To be honest, the delegate system is total nonsense. Trump wins but doesn't get as many delegates makes no sense.

He is a racist but the system inherently undemocratic.

Kind of in the same boat. He's horrible, but he's winning and the GOP is trying to bring him down against the will of their (admittedly idiotic) voters. . The Louisiana thing really is crap.

Dems aren't much better. I can only imagine the anger from Bernie fans if the race tightens up and Hillary only wins because of Superdelegates.

 

[mclem]

It seems that the key factor in the middle of all this is what can the Republicans offer Trump to stop him being a spoiler in the event that he has the delegate lead but not a majority come convention time, would he accept anything other than being the nominee?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Kind of in the same boat. He's horrible, but he's winning and the GOP is trying to bring him down against the will of their (admittedly idiotic) voters. . The Louisiana thing really is crap.

Dems aren't much better. I can only imagine the anger from Bernie fans if the race tightens up and Hillary only wins because of Superdelegates.

That wouldn't happen. The Super Delegates would go with whoever had the most votes, Bill Clinton himself (as a Super Delegate) has said even he'd go with Bernie if he beat Hillary.

There's nothing particularly wrong with Bernie (at least not the extremes of Trump), it's not like it would destroy the party or alienate voters for an entire generation if he was the nominee, so there would be no reason to steal it from him using Super Delegates.

 

[studyguy]

Why do people think that Trump will be such a disaster for down-ticket candidates? All the nutballs he brings out will almost certainly be voting a straight Republican ticket. In theory at least, independents who hate Trump would and could still vote for moderate Republicans in state and Congressional races.

Because the myth of the missing white voter being staunchly conservative is just that. A myth, 2012 showed as much when Romney couldn't carry more moderate voters despite Obama having some drop off. Moreover independents aren't going to roll his way either.

 

[Glass Shark]

I actually hope Trump wins the nomination because he has no chance of winning a general election. Ted Cruz could actually become President and in my mind he is worse than Trump because he actually believes the bigoted nonsense that comes out of his mouth. Trump is just saying what he thinks people want to hear.

 

[Imm0rt4l]

So if Trump falls, the alternative is Ted Cruz? He's almost just as bad.

No he's worse.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Yeah, it seems to me that a Trump candidacy would help with downticket races. You have the Trump fan club coming out and voting R, and then you also have the #NeverTrumpers voting R down the line except for President. Put Paul Ryan on the ballot and you lock in the #NeverTrump vote, but the Trump fan club stays home.

The people who traditionally vote R and lean more towards the normal side of humanity will stay home if it's Trump, theoretically.

 

[Princess Carl]

No he's worse.

Unequivocally

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The people who traditionally vote R and lean more towards the normal side of humanity will stay home if it's Trump, theoretically.

And Trump on the ticket would get minorities out to vote against him.

 

[ferrasvansen]

If Trump doesn't get selected even with a large lead in delegates i can't see him keeping quiet, reckon he will stand on his own and the Democrats could sweep every state. It's going to be an interesting few months seeing how this ends up come November.

 

[DrForester]

So if Trump falls, the alternative is Ted Cruz? He's almost just as bad.

Scary as it is, Trump is a LOT better than Cruz.

 

[BSsBrolly]

I don't fully disagree with you (I think Cruz is toxic and Trump would perform better), but I wouldn't describe Hillary Clinton as "popular." Her negatives are only outdone by Trump's, if I recall the polling numbers correctly.

And Cruz's. Both have higher unfavorable ratings and lower favorable ratings.