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[Biff]

Using markets like Betfair or PredictIt for actual probabilities of an outcome is incredibly flawed.

There are many factors built into the price of a prediction share beyond the actual likelihood of an event occurring. The biggest one to consider is the probability of getting paid.

These prediction markets have not yet lived through an event as major as the U.S. Presidential Election. There is a very good chance these websites will become illiquid and unable to pay out winnings.

This is what happened to Intrade, which failed shortly after the 2012 elections. I know friends who made $1000s in correct predictions, only to have the site shutdown without actually paying out any of the winnings.

Basically, my point is you can't look at a prediction site that has Trump winning at 65% and say "oh the market is predicting 65%." The market is probably predicting something like 80-90%, then building in a substantial risk premium on actually getting paid.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

So if Trump falls, the alternative is Ted Cruz? He's almost just as bad.

Worse. He's worse. (but also unelectable).

 

[Link]

The entire point here is that 1237 represents 50% +1. A simple majority.

He's winning a plurality, not a majority (let alone a "vast majority", lol).

The logic behind this rule system is that a candidate is judged to have not unified the party if they can't win a simple majority. And at that point it is up to the elected delegates to choose the best candidate.

You are certainly welcome to disagree with that argument though.

All I know is that either way, the GOP is fuuuuucked.

But hey, the bed you make.

 

[aeolist]

Using markets like Betfair or PredictIt for actual probabilities of an outcome is incredibly flawed.

There are many factors built into the price of a prediction share beyond the actual likelihood of an event occurring. The biggest one to consider is the probability of getting paid.

These prediction markets have not yet lived through an event as major as the U.S. Presidential Election. There is a very good chance these websites will become illiquid and unable to pay out winnings.

This is what happened to Intrade, which failed shortly after the 2012 elections. I know friends who made $1000s in correct predictions, only to have the site shutdown without actually paying out any of the winnings.

Basically, my point is you can't look at a prediction site that has Trump winning at 65% and say "oh the market is predicting 65%." The market is probably predicting something like 80-90%, then building in a substantial risk premium on actually getting paid.

i think in this particular article silver was using the betting prediction as a lead-in example so he could address the idea that some people are predicting a brokered convention at which trump comes out on top

 

[Skellig Gra]

Why would the delegates switch to Cruz on a 2nd ballot again? No one likes that dude. What am I missing?

 

[Kusagari]

Why would the delegates switch to Cruz on a 2nd ballot again? No one likes that dude. What am I missing?

Numerous party figures like Romney, Jeb and Graham have endorsed him, while holding their nose and not exactly being effusive with praise, recently.

They might hate his guts but he's more palatable than Trump.

 

[ISWThunder]

Why do people think that Trump will be such a disaster for down-ticket candidates? All the nutballs he brings out will almost certainly be voting a straight Republican ticket. In theory at least, independents who hate Trump would and could still vote for moderate Republicans in state and Congressional races.

The people that would come out to vote down ticket while skipping the Presidential vote are the people that will come out no matter what. If Trump runs, his voters will definitely turn out, but the other half of the marginal voters will have low turnout because they don't want to vote for Trump or Hillary and the presidential race is always what moves the needle.

On top of that, you have all of the anti-Trump voters that will be rallied to vote against him on the dems side. Because the country's demographics are trending away from the GOP's base, they want low overall turnout with a candidate that lights a fire under a unified GOP ticket. What they dont want is high overall turnout with a fractured party where large groups have no interest in voting for their party's candidate.

 

[The Lamonster]

The GOP would be stupid to take the nomination away from the people by refusing the candidate with the most votes.

The GOP is stupid, though.

 

[aeolist]

Why would the delegates switch to Cruz on a 2nd ballot again? No one likes that dude. What am I missing?

because he's got the second highest delegate count in the race and he's more palatable than trump. even if he's not liked people know where he stands ideologically.

taking the nom away from trump would already be controversial since he'll be in the lead, i think they would want to make as much of a gesture towards the democratic process as possible.

 

[Laevateinn]

Why would the delegates switch to Cruz on a 2nd ballot again? No one likes that dude. What am I missing?

I believe that the way the rules are currently written, the delegates can only choose among people who have won 8 states. I don't know if Cruz has won that many but he's the only one other than Trump who can at this point. I also remember hearing that the rules committee meets a week before the convention so that rule can change.

 

[Skellig Gra]

Numerous party figures like Romney, Jeb and Graham have endorsed him, while holding their nose and not exactly being effusive with praise, recently.

They might hate his guts but he's more palatable than Trump.

because he's got the second highest delegate count in the race and he's more palatable than trump. even if he's not liked people know where he stands ideologically.

taking the nom away from trump would already be controversial since he'll be in the lead, i think they would want to make as much of a gesture towards the democratic process as possible.

How is Cruz more palatable than Trump? I'm honestly baffled by that.

 

[Azzanadra]

So what, is the establishment simply going to block Trump and say "You're wrong. We know whats good for you." to the voters?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Why would the delegates switch to Cruz on a 2nd ballot again? No one likes that dude. What am I missing?

Unless they modify the rules to allow anyone into the race, Cruz is the only other candidate eligible for delegates to vote for. There's a minimum of 8 primary wins to be eligible, under the current rules.

 

[blackflag]

Why would the delegates switch to Cruz on a 2nd ballot again? No one likes that dude. What am I missing?

Because the delegates don't necessarily like him but most are required to vote for Trump on first ballot if they ended up pledged to him from primary results. After the first ballot, they can and will switch.

 

[Slayven]

GOP needs to take the L and just rebuild the next 4 years

 

[Link]

I believe that the way the rules are currently written, the delegates can only choose among people who have won 8 states. I don't know if Cruz has won that many but he's the only one other than Trump who can at this point. I also remember hearing that the rules committee meets a week before the convention so that rule can change.

This entire thing is going to be amazing. The blowback is going to be massive. I can't wait.

 

[aeolist]

How is Cruz more palatable than Trump? I'm honestly baffled by that.

cruz is personally despicable but trump is a loose cannon, and a party that values ideological rigidity uber alles would never go for trump.

plus trump has build his entire campaign on shitting all over the political establishment, including and especially the republican party.

edit. you'll notice how long it took the party to back cruz though. they've largely decided that he's their best hope but even as the only other candidate who's won anything of note they didn't like it.

 

[EatinOlives]

So if Trump falls, the alternative is Ted Cruz? He's almost just as bad.

He's better for Democrats in that he's even less electable in the GE than Trump. Trump at the very least has a misguided notion of "charisma", whereas people hate Cruz even if they're staunch conservatives. Dude's a slimy sleazeball.

 

[boingball]

Yeah, he gets to show what a great deal maker he is when he doesn't get the majority of delegates to find the first ballot. Hint: I don't think he is that great of a deal maker and the GOP will find someone else.

The GOP is clearly imploding. They apparently have resigned themselves to loose the election and just want to protect the down-ballot as much as possible, though with a contested convention and nominating Cruz the results might be as worse. They should be able to hold the house, but the Senate is clearly in danger. Still they hold out on the supreme court hearings, even though they will get a more liberal judge under President Clinton (or a socialist judge under President Sanders?). Trump throttling them from crazy-land, Cruz from right-wing-nut-land and the Tea Party in their own districts.

 

[Laevateinn]

GOP needs to take the L and just rebuild the next 4 years

I'm hoping they find a way to maximize this fuck up so it takes them 40 years.

 

[Maxim726X]

How is Cruz more palatable than Trump? I'm honestly baffled by that.

I mean, at least he's a conservative... Trump is barely even that.

But again, people seem to be ignoring that he doesn't have a single endorsement from his time in Congress. Everyone in his own party hates him- Why, oh why, would they give him their support?

I'm hoping they find a way to maximize this fuck up so it takes them 40 years.

That may be inevitable regardless.

 

[ISWThunder]

So what, is the establishment simply going to block Trump and say "You're wrong. We know whats good for you." to the voters?

Basically. But they'll argue that since he acquired less than half of the total delegates/votes, the voters are still undecided and it's up to the GOP to make the final decision.

 

[Link]

cruz is personally despicable but trump is a loose cannon, and a party that values ideological rigidity uber alles would never go for trump.

plus trump has build his entire campaign on shitting all over the political establishment, including and especially the republican party.

Cruz went behind his own party leadership's back to shut down the government. I don't know if it gets worse than that.

 

[BiggNife]

So if Trump falls, the alternative is Ted Cruz? He's almost just as bad.

If Cruz gets the nom, Trump will almost definitely run third party (he's even already said his "pledge" to not do so no longer counts), which would definitely put the nail in the coffin for the GOP.

They'd still have a massive uphill battle if Trump got the nom but with Cruz it would probably be worse.

Dems aren't much better. I can only imagine the anger from Bernie fans if the race tightens up and Hillary only wins because of Superdelegates.

Hilary is not going to win the nomination solely because of superdelegates. Bernie still has a ways to catch up and not really any realistic way of getting there.

 

[Version 3.0]

How is Cruz more palatable than Trump? I'm honestly baffled by that.

To the GOP? Easy, he's a politician. They don't like him much, but at least he knows the issues well enough to speak about them.

 

[aeolist]

Cruz went behind his own party leadership's back to shut down the government. I don't know if it gets worse than that.

and that kind of thing is why they took months of bickering and backstabbing to get to the point where some of them will endorse him at arm's length. it's by no means an easy choice for them.

 

[ISWThunder]

Cruz went behind his own party leadership's back to shut down the government. I don't know if it gets worse than that.

The difference is that if Cruz wins, he owes it all to the GOP. If Trump wins, he did it in spite of them.

They hate Cruz, but they still have all the power and any future candidate has to bow to them.

 

[EatinOlives]

So what, is the establishment simply going to block Trump and say "You're wrong. We know whats good for you." to the voters?

Brokered conventions are nothing new.

The simple fact of the matter is, if Trump fails to get 1,237, he has failed to make a persuasive argument that he can perform well in the general. It's not that the GOP in a brokered convention swoops in and steals the nomination against the will of the voters, it's that it shows Trump is a weak-ass candidate who can't even unify his own party, and the system is in place so that if you have weak-ass candidates across the board, they wipe the slate clean and start over.

I think the people who keep saying brokered conventions are undemocratic are missing the point. If there's a brokered convention, that's the candidates' fault, not the GOP's. At that point the GOP is just there to come in and clean the shit off the walls.

 

[The Lamonster]

If Cruz gets the nom, Trump will almost definitely run third party (he's even already said his "pledge" to not do so no longer counts), which would definitely put the nail in the coffin for the GOP.

They'd still have a massive uphill battle if Trump got the nom but with Cruz it would probably be worse.

So for a Democrat the ideal situation would be a contested convention where Trump loses and then runs third party?

I still don't see him running third party. It'd be expensive and grueling with almost a 0% chance of victory. He can easily just say the GOP screwed him over, and he would've won the general if they had gone with him, and come out a "winner" in the end.

 

[Slayven]

I'm hoping they find a way to maximize this fuck up so it takes them 40 years.

Don't we all?

 

[Steel]

I could honestly see the RNC offering up Cruz out of a convention as a sacrifical lamb. They'd run the experiment of putting out a "true conservative" and when it fails spectacularly they can clean up the pieces.

 

[ISWThunder]

If Cruz gets the nom, Trump will almost definitely run third party (he's even already said his "pledge" to not do so no longer counts), which would definitely put the nail in the coffin for the GOP.

But at the same time, if both Trump and Cruz run, Republican turnout will be huge and that can only help them down ticket.

If the GOP strengthens their hold of congress, how can you possibly declare them a party on death's doorstep? They will control both houses of the legislature and have massive amounts of power both locally and nationally.

Sure, their Presidential politics will be a mess, but that's guaranteed at this point.

 

[Link]

Does Trump even need to officially run as a third party? Can't he just keep holding rallies and tell his supporters to vote for him as a write-in candidate?

 

[BiggNife]

So for a Democrat the ideal situation would be a contested convention where Trump loses and then runs third party?

I still don't see him running third party. It'd be expensive and grueling with almost a 0% chance of victory. He can easily just say the GOP screwed him over, and he would've won the general if they had gone with him, and come out a "winner" in the end.

The thing with Trump is that he 1) is extremely petty and 2) has tons of money. He knows that going third party would sabotage the GOP, and if they managed to deny him the nom despite having the most delegates, I could definitely see him going third party as his way of saying "if I'm going down, then fuck it, everyone else is going down with me."

And even if Trump does not go third party, there is still the fact that 1) as others have said, Cruz is super disliked in general and 2) Trump has a loyal contingency that probably would not vote in the general if he did not get the nom.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

But at the same time, if both Trump and Cruz run, Republican turnout will be huge and that can only help them down ticket.

If the GOP strengthens their hold of congress, how can you possibly declare them a party on death's doorstep? They will control both houses of the legislature and have massive amounts of power both locally and nationally.

Sure, their Presidential politics will be a mess, but that's guaranteed at this point.

I don't see how Trump v Cruz v Hillary makes for a higher turnout for Republicans. Those turning up for Trump aren't necessarily going to bother voting down ticket, and Trump could very well tell them not to out of spite.

 

[Slayven]

Trump is 1) extremely petty and 2) has tons of money. He knows that going third party would sabotage the GOP, and if they managed to deny him the nom despite having the most delegates, I could definitely see him going third party as his way of saying "if I'm going down, then fuck it, everyone else is going down with me."

And even if Trump does not go third party, there is still the fact that 1) as others have said, Cruz is super disliked in general and 2) Trump has a loyal contingency that probably would not vote in the general if he did not get the nom.

Trump ego is in a league of it's own. He still rags on Rosie O'Donnell after she said he was a millionaire not a billionaire, and that was years ago.

 

[Laevateinn]

The thing with Trump is that he 1) is extremely petty and 2) has tons of money. He knows that going third party would sabotage the GOP, and if they managed to deny him the nom despite having the most delegates, I could definitely see him going third party as his way of saying "if I'm going down, then fuck it, everyone else is going down with me."

And even if Trump does not go third party, there is still the fact that 1) as others have said, Cruz is super disliked in general and 2) Trump has a loyal contingency that probably would not vote in the general if he did not get the nom.

This is what I'm hoping for. If Trump runs third party, Trump loyalists might still vote for Republicans down ballot but if he uses the rest of his money to urge his followers to not vote out of protest then it will reverberate to all levels.

 

[Exterminieren]

Cruz is a despicable human being, but him running and Trump going third party out of sheer spite would be both the best case scenario for the Dems, and the finest political comedy the world has ever seen. I hope and pray that Trump is petty enough.

 

[BiggNife]

But at the same time, if both Trump and Cruz run, Republican turnout will be huge and that can only help them down ticket.

If the GOP strengthens their hold of congress, how can you possibly declare them a party on death's doorstep? They will control both houses of the legislature and have massive amounts of power both locally and nationally.

Sure, their Presidential politics will be a mess, but that's guaranteed at this point.

I'll admit I hadn't thought about that, but also I'm not convinced Trump third party voters would down-ticket. In fact, considering Trump, I'd almost expect him to tell his supporters not to down-ticket, since Republicans abandoned him, they support Cruz, they're part of the establishment etc. etc.

 

[Reverend Funk]

The only properly democratic way to elect a president is to use a 10 point scale where whoever has the highest aggregate score wins.

 

[ISWThunder]

I don't see how Trump v Cruz v Hillary makes for a higher turnout for Republicans. Those turning up for Trump aren't necessarily going to bother voting down ticket, and Trump could very well tell them not to out of spite.

I'm sure there will be a percentage of Trump supporters that have so much distain for the entire party that they'll refuse to vote for any of the GOP candidates. But at the same time, they are still conservatives that believe in those principles and are against the progressive stances of the democrats. While the GOP establishment will be a pariah, the local candidates will have separation from intra party politics and will push their conservative stances hard.

Getting more people into the booth is what will matter most and the media narrative will be how the GOP party has split and Hillary will walk into the white house, further pushing apathy in the Democratic party,

 

[Plinko]

The RNC completely going against the will of the voters and taking Cruz instead is just too good to be true.

As for the other discussion in this thread:

Nearly everything Cruz believes in is as far right or further than Donald Trump. Think about that.

 

[Trouble]

Cruz is a despicable human being, but him running and Trump going third party out of sheer spite would be both the best case scenario for the Dems, and the finest political comedy the world has ever seen. I hope and pray that Trump is petty enough.

His pettiness knows no bounds.

 

[gutter_trash]

The RNC completely going against the will of the voters and taking Cruz instead is just too good to be true.

As for the other discussion in this thread:

Nearly everything Cruz believes in is as far right or further than Donald Trump. Think about that.

and Cruz actually believes in what he says.

Trump is just shooting for votes like if they were TV ratings. His abortion answer exposed him for making it up as he guys along

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

I think Trump's ego is too fragile to run a for-sure losing third party campaign. The relevant part of him disavowing that pledge is that he no longer has to support the Republican nominee, so if he doesn't get the nomination, what he'll probably do is go on a scorched earth media and social media campaign and trash whoever the nominee is so none of his devotees will vote for them.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I'm sure there will be a percentage of Trump supporters that have so much distain for the entire party that they'll refuse to vote for any of the GOP candidates. But at the same time, they are still conservatives that believe in those principles and are against the progressive stances of the democrats. While the GOP establishment will be a pariah, the local candidates will have separation from intra party politics and will push their conservative stances hard.

Getting more people into the booth is what will matter most and the media narrative will be how the GOP party has split and Hillary will walk into the white house, further pushing apathy in the Democratic party,

The only principles that Trump supporters, who would vote for Trump as a third party, care about are racial. They aren't really conservative.

There's also likely to be a lot of moderate Republicans who refuse to participate at all, given how messed up the process was. They'll stay home because, even if they don't like Trump, they feel the nomination was stolen from him.

Traditionally, an election like this, with a three way vote, split between two of one party and another, would lead to big wins for the single party that isn't split.

 

[HylianTom]

One thing I love:

One week in Cleveland: a Republican horrorfest shitshow, complete with a good chance for violence.
The very next week in Philly: a boring show of Democrats being sane and responsible.

Great contrast, to drive the point to viewers at home.

 

[To Far Away Times]

This is going to be suicide in the age of social media.

 

[Valhelm]

His chances in the general are worse than Trump's. He has all of Trump's toxic ideals without Trump's fan club. Cruz will get all the solid Red states and nothing more. Him being able to convince some delegates to go against Trump doesn't mean anything for the general racing against a popular Democrat candidate and with toxic ideals the majority of the country doesn't agree with at all.

Correct. A Clinton/Cruz mashup would be a long-term embarrassment for the party, but still less destructive than a Trump nomination

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

One thing I love:

One week in Cleveland: a Republican horrorfest shitshow, complete with a good chance for violence.
The very next week in Philly: a boring show of Democrats being sane and responsible.

Great contrast, to drive the point to viewers at home.

The contrast was pretty apparent last go around, and that was without the benefit of all of this.