Nate Silver: It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Trump At The GOP Convention (538)

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balladofwindfishes said:
If they're bending the rules to allow Kasich, despite his lack of primary wins to be eligible, why bother? Why not just pick basically anyone?
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Kasich's got the foundation laid. He's filed all the paperwork and has the 2016 name recognition.

It'd be a huge "fuck you" to the voters, though.

Wolfgunblood Garopa said:
There's a reason he's been in this the whole time.
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yep. Who knows what kind of backroom talks he's already had with the GOP. You don't just burn through that kind of money if you have 0% chance of winning. And don't think the GOP hasn't noticed all the GE matchup polls showing Kasich's major strength compared to the other guys.
 
To Far Away Times said:
If it does go to a brokered convention it'll be Kasich.

The moderate GOP leaders hate Cruz just as much as they hate Trump, maybe even more.
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There'd be an open revolt if that happens. He can't be the GOP nominee if he can't even win 20% of the popular vote.

EDIT: It'll be Paul Ryan before Kasich. At least he would have the defense of "I didn't run in the primary, so you can't say I don't have a mandate from the voters". Kasich has been in the race this whole time, and the GOP voters have resoundingly rejected him as their nominee.
 
HylianTom said:
One thing I love:

One week in Cleveland: a Republican horrorfest shitshow, complete with a good chance for violence.
The very next week in Philly: a boring show of Democrats being sane and responsible.

Great contrast, to drive the point to viewers at home.
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hoping for violence is not a cute look...

I wish C-SPAN had access to procedural meetings of the parties at their respective conventions, but both have blocked the cameras in the past.
 
Hollywood Duo said:
Why would the delegates switch to Cruz on a 2nd ballot again? No one likes that dude. What am I missing?
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My understanding is that Cruz is stacking the delegates with his supporters. During the first vote their vote is bound to the results of their state primary so most would go to Trump. A second vote has no such stipulation though so if Trump doesn't have a majority after the first vote, those anti Trump delegates who were forced to vote for him in the first round can switch to anyone else.

Cruz snaring Trump's Arizona delegates

The Texas senator, who ever since Iowa has played a stealthy ground game in contrast to Trump's chaotic populism, is taking steps to snatch the Republican presidential nomination from The Donald at the convention in July.

The New York businessman easily won last month's Arizona primary taking 47 percent to Cruz's 25 percent, scooping up all 58 of the state's delegates. That's nearly 5 percent of the 1,237 Trump needs for the nomination, and they're tied are to him on the first ballot.

But Cruz, exploiting deep opposition to Trump among grassroots Republicans, has been far more active in Arizona than Trump, insiders say. He's recruiting candidates for the available 55 delegate slots, that along with the other three delegate positions filled by party leaders, would be allowed to vote for him in a multi-ballot contested convention.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/cruz-snaring-trumps-arizona-delegates/article/2587556
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Killthee said:
My understanding is that the Cruz is stacking the delegates with his supporters. During the first vote their vote is bound to the results of their state primary so most would go to Trump. A second vote has no such stipulation though so if Trump doesn't have a majority after the first vote, those anti Trump delegates who were forced to vote for him in the first round can switch to anyone else.
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I don't know if there is anyone that's as outright slimy as Ted Cruz.
 
Plinko said:
The RNC completely going against the will of the voters and taking Cruz instead is just too good to be true.

As for the other discussion in this thread:

Nearly everything Cruz believes in is as far right or further than Donald Trump. Think about that.
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You can strike out "nearly" from that sentence. I can't think of any issue where Trump is more conservative. Remember, Cruz is the guy who said Trump doesn't go far enough on illegal immigration.
 
So Cruz's delegate plan is basically a somewhat more realistic version of that hilarious Ron Paul plan floated in the past?
 
Robot Pants said:
Well Cruz is gonna get demolished by the democratic nominee anyway so...

I guess it all comes down to the world realizing Trump needs to be stopped
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The only one who had a realistic chance of beating Clinton was Rubio, and he dropped out after getting beaten like a rented mule in Florida.

It'll be so great seeing Patrick Murphy take that Senate seat...
 
Kusagari said:
So Cruz's delegate plan is basically a somewhat more realistic version of that hilarious Ron Paul plan floated in the past?
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Seems fairly realistic to me. Cruz is immensely popular with many of the grassroots conservatives who are going to be serving as delegates, and his campaign is doing a great job of parlaying that support into delegate spots. Ron Paul's plan didn't work because he wasn't able to stop a first ballot win for Romney or McCain, and wasn't actually able to get that many stealth delegates anyway.

We aren't seeing anything like this for Kasich. Even though Kasich would be the best choice for the GOP to run against Hillary I don't think he's got the organization going to get the delegates he needs to the convention. Cruz is unpopular with the Senate but they aren't the ones voting on the convention floor.

CrazyDude said:
Has there been a primary where the person with the most delegates did not get the nominee?
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This used to happen all the time, for instance Abraham Lincoln didn't have the most delegates for the 1860 convention.
 
To Far Away Times said:
If it does go to a brokered convention it'll be Kasich.

The moderate GOP leaders hate Cruz just as much as they hate Trump, maybe even more.
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Why would they pick Kasich? If their argument is that Trump didn't unify the party, how the hell can they justify him?

Not to mention, how does Kasich go to the base and tell them "You're all fucking idiots and I worked my ass off to disenfranchise all of your votes from the Primary. Vote for me in the GA!"


It's going to be awful either way, but I think they have to go with someone who either dropped out early, or never ran to begin with.
 
twinturbo2 said:
The only one who had a realistic chance of beating Clinton was Rubio, and he dropped out after getting beaten like a rented mule in Florida.

It'll be so great seeing Patrick Murphy take that Senate seat...
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Murphy is most certainly a blue-dog Democrat (he was actually a Republican until he ran for his seat), but he's definitely better than Rubio, and it's nice to actually have a viable, young candidate running. (DWS has done a shit job in this regard, and in her home state, no less.)

Seth Enosh said:
Seems fairly realistic to me. Cruz is immensely popular with many of the grassroots conservatives who are going to be serving as delegates, and his campaign is doing a great job of parlaying that support into delegate spots. Ron Paul's plan didn't work because he wasn't able to stop a first ballot win for Romney or McCain, and wasn't actually able to get that many stealth delegates anyway.

We aren't seeing anything like this for Kasich. Even though Kasich would be the best choice for the GOP to run against Hillary I don't think he's got the organization going to get the delegates he needs to the convention. Cruz is unpopular with the Senate but they aren't the ones voting on the convention floor.
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God, if they screw Trump just to give it to Cruz, it'll be glorious. Not only is Cruz even less electable than Trump, Trump's supporters will absolutely revolt. It'll be even more of a bloodbath than it's already going to be.
 
Link said:
God, if they screw Trump just to give it to Cruz, it'll be glorious. Not only is Cruz even less electable than Trump, Trump's supporters will absolutely revolt. It'll be even more of a bloodbath than it's already going to be.
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Agreed. Trump I think has a frightening chance of winning in a general election. Cruz on the other hand would not have that "outsider" label that might help Trump. Trump will also paddle hard to the center come the GA.

Cruz is about as far right as you can get and I don't think would even try to sound more moderate during the GA.
 
Tom_Cody said:
Yes. Hubert Humphrey won in 1968 after getting a whopping 2% of the popular vote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1968
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Eh, reading through that shows how different the situation was.

There were only 14 primaries at the time. Humphrey didn't compete in any, instead concentrating on winning over delegates from the rest of the states while Johnson and Humphrey's surrogates picked up around 26% of the popular vote in the primaries.

Then one of the major candidates, the #2 competition, was assassinated.

The 2016 Republican primary is pretty bland in comparison to that craziness. And Humphrey actually did have the most delegates, winning on the first ballot.
 
Azzanadra said:
We do want Trump to win the nomination, right? Cruz or worse and Kasich actually has a chance to win the general.
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Cruz has even less of a chance. He's got no appeal outside hardline right-wingers and he's extremely unlikable as a person.
 
Link said:
Cruz has even less of a chance. He's got no appeal outside hardline right-wingers and he's extremely unlikable as a person.
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Trump has a much bigger window of results in the GE than Cruz. No matter what Cruz would probably finish between 200-250 electoral college votes 75% of the time. Trump has a 30% chance of being sub 200 and probably a 20% chance of being 270+. Cruz guarantees a closer loss while Trump could lose in a blowout or win.
 
Link said:
Murphy is most certainly a blue-dog Democrat (he was actually a Republican until he ran for his seat), but he's definitely better than Rubio, and it's nice to actually have a viable, young candidate running. (DWS has done a shit job in this regard, and in her home state, no less.)
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Umm, DWS has little to do with that. Electing Democratic Senators is the job of the DSCC, not the DNC.
 
It will be interesting to see what happens. Cruz and the GOP establishment needs to win Wisconsin or Trump probably can't be stopped. Cruz does have a decent lead it appears, but recent polling shows Trump perhaps closing the gap there. The Emerson poll when broken down by each day showed Cruz doing the best late last week. On Sunday Trump was actually slightly beating Cruz.

An ARG poll conducted Fri-Sun which appears to be a big outlier shows Trump up 10 in Wisconsin. Overall Cruz seems to be up around 5-7 points. He is expected to win tomorrow, so if he somehow loses, he is screwed. Especially since Trump has NY and other friendlier states soon.

A bizarre event at a Trump rally apparently tonight according to Noah Gray on CNN. A 16 year old protestor tried to throw an egg at Melania Trump when she was speaking. He missed horribly though and was arrested.
 
Cesare Borgia said:
Trump will likely fall 50-200 delegates short. It's possible he could win enough unallocated delegates to win but I doubt it. I think the last few weeks has destroyed his campaign. The rally riots, his advocacy of violence, and the abortion nonsense probably ensured that GOP power brokers who were once flirting with the idea of Trump not being that bad have flipped back to viewing him as a giant disaster.

Cruz is running the smartest non-incumbent campaign since Obama's 2008 run. His people are exploiting every rule and have seemingly been preparing for a brokered convention for months. If this goes to a second or third ballot I think he'll take the nomination.
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Lol I remember when people kept saying that this will only make Trump more popular when the riots and other things were continuing to happen. I thought it was dumb and short sighted and I guess I was right. Normal people can only take so much fuckkery in a presidential election.
 
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