Well I don't think they are making Uncharted and a new IP.
I think it's just New IP and TLOU 3 that are in production so if that's the case that potentially pushes the New IP into 2026.
So really the only difference in our estimates is how many games are releasing before Part 3.
If 1 the late 2020s are possible. If 2 then thats not possible as you said.
Around 2019/2020, Bend started to work on an Uncharted spionff until around 2021, when their Bend new IP got greenlighted and they moved away from the Uncharted game to focus on their own game.
We don't know what happened to this Uncharted game, maybe was cancelled or maybe was continued at ND or at other studio.
We know that during TLOU2 development the only other big project they had was the TLOU2MP mode that evolved to its own game. Which means that ND didn't start to work on their current (at least) 2 SP games until around 2020 (once they shipped TLOU2) or closer to today.
We know one could be the Uncharted game from Bend. We know other one could be the fantasy new IP hinted in TLOU2. But we know that for sure none of them were TLOU3, because as of 2023, when the last part of this documentary was shot they still didn't even know what the TLOU3 story was going to be, and all they had was only a main concept and first early rough draft of the main story and they didn't even greenlight the project.
If they started to work in TLOU3, it would have been after cancelling TLOU Online in 2023, because very likely they did found a wy to rehash in TLOU3 most of the stuff done in TLOU Online in terms of characters, stages and story and merged it with the concept seed for the story that Neil wrote.
But is it too much to ask for a new ND game for the PS5?
Or is everybody cool if we don’t get one until the PS6?
AAA games nowadays need over 5 years to be made. ND released their last game in 2020, meaning that if lucky their next brand new game would be released in minimum 2026.
After TLOU2 they have been working in 2, maybe even 3 new games at the same time. Meaning, after their next game that would be released minimum 2026 you won't have to wait again a lot of years to see the next one released. Maybe only a couple years (think Insomniac).
Neil Druckmann went on to say on podcasts in early 2021 that they had only started to consider the next original singleplayer project after Part II shipped and that at the time they were still divided on which pitches (the Tommy TLOU spin-off among them) to ultimately move forward with. This was while the majority of the studio was working on the remake, yes, because neither The Last Of Us Online nor the next singleplayer project were ready absorb hundreds of people at that point in time.
Almost all ND was working on TLOU2 and its MP mode, which later became a standalone game. Once they shipped TLOU2, their next main big project was TLOU Online. They didn't have any big project, and that includes the remake, which only required a few people from ND to overview, support and provide material to the San Diego team of Sony Visual Arts studio who handled most of the remake, pitched it and until late 2019 when Hermen noticed it were even the leads of the project.
The remake, like the remasters and ports, movie and tv show were developed mostly outside ND. ND only had some people supporting and overviewiing them.
TLOU Online project was so big that they needed help from other studios like Bend, who were helping them with that project until around 2021 or 2022, when Bend fully moved to work on their own new IP.
As of 2023 they weren't sure with the Tommy spin-off/TLOU3, so at least until around when they canned TLOU Online it wasn't in production, when they said they had minimum 2 new SP games. In the past, a few years ago the (back then 2) ND presidents said they had plans to continue working on Uncharted, TLOU and new IP.
So pretty likely the two new SP games they had in the works when they canned TLOU Online were Uncharted (maybe they took the Bend project once Bend left it, or the Cassie project which who knows if it's even a VR game) and new IP (maybe the new one hinted in TLOU2, maybe some Marvel adaptation like The Punisher).