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NeoGAF 2013 Summer Movie Box Office Prediction League

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kswiston

Member
Scores as of May 6, 2013:

Code:
1) Mushroomer25		41.87798603
2) kswiston		36.13561191
3) Pachinko		36.13561191
4) twinturbo2		36.13561191
5) Busty		32.69018743
6) artist		30.39323778
7) Phoenician_Viking	24.65086365
8) jakncoke		16.03730246
9) FatboyRoberts	2.82984197
10) davepoobond		1.107129732

MAXIMUM POINTS = 50

Scores above are only based on the the opening weekend for Iron Man 3. Ties are just listed in alphabetical order so there is actually a three way tie for #2. Some of us did better than others, but it's only 1 data point so don't get too cocky or distraught yet :p

Congrats to Mushroomer25 for coming the closest to guessing IM3's opening weekend.

Next weekend, I will be adding domestic gross, WW gross for IM3 plus the opening weekend for The Great Gatsby. Because grosses will continue to go up in coming weeks, your individual scores will go up or down depending on whether you over or under-predicted on the domestic totals.
 

kswiston

Member
Severe underpredictions on The Great Gatsby all around this week. Mushroomer was the only person who guessed close. I was dead wrong.

Tomorrow, when the official weekend numbers are in, I will update the point tallies. In addition to points for The Great Gatsby, people will start to receive points for their domestic guess on IM3. Obviously this will continue to be adjusted in coming weeks.

IM3 is already over everyone's worldwide predictions.
 

kittoo

Cretinously credulous
I am putting my Man of Steel predictions here.

Opening weekend (domestic)- 100 million.
Total domestic- 280-300 million.
International- 450-500 million.
Worldwide- 750-800 million.
 

kswiston

Member
Scores as of May 13th, 2013

Code:
1) Mushroomer25		81.72165805
2) Busty		42.58596877
3) artist		40.28901912
4) kswiston		36.13561191
5) Pachinko		36.13561191
6) twinturbo2		36.13561191
7) FatboyRoberts	26.70130562
8) Phoenician_Viking	24.65086365
9) jakncoke		21.94003171
10) davepoobond		20.9855413

MAXIMUM POINTS = 100

Points are based on opening weekend predictions for Iron Man 3 and the Great Gatsby. Congrats to Mushroomer25 who is kicking our ass so far.

I decided to not include Iron Man 3's domestic total in this weeks points update. Movie openings are worth a maximum of 50 points each, while domestic totals are worth a maximum of 100 points each. With only 2 movies being tracked, points for IM3's in flux total would have drowned out the final points for the two opening weekends. This would have obscured how well Mushroomer25 is doing so far, and propped up people who severely undershot their Iron Man 3 domestic predictions (like davepoobond, who would get 99.96 points out of 100 if I included points for IM3's total in this update, since IM3's 10 day total is almost exactly at his LTD guess).

Next week I will add IM3 domestic, Star Trek Into Darkness Opening Weekend, and maybe the Great Gatsby domestic.

I'm starting to get the feeling that I was much too optimistic on Star Trek. Hopefully the movies following it balance things out a bit!
 

kswiston

Member
Star Trek: Into Darkness is moving its opening day to Thursday, May 16th. Since this opening date change happened last week, almost a month after everyone put in their predictions, Opening Weekend numbers will be based on the 4-day opening.

The same thing will happen with The Hangover 3, which also announced a Thursday opening last week. Other movies opening Memorial Day weekend will be based on the 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun, Not Fri-Mon).

In the future, "Opening weekend" will always be from the day a film opens to the first Sunday. This will avoid last minuted preview day announcements or Wednesday openings messing things up. I'll try to point out movies with 4/5 day openings if I know before predictions close.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
After Earth (Opening May 31st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $73 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $155 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $375 million

This is the End (Opening June 12th, 5-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $65 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $158 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $275 million

Man of Steel (Opening June 14th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $98 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $205 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $625 million

Monsters University (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $65 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $163 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $300 million

World War Z (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $85 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $165 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $320 million

The Heat (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $25 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $55 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $89 million

White House Down (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $66 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $85 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $125 million
 

kswiston

Member
Predictions

I actually created a new thread for June, but received zero responses, so I figured people weren't really interested in this idea.

If those currently participating ARE interested in continuing the game in June, here was my June post:


How to Participate:

PREDICTION MONTH 2: June 2013

Copy the form below into your post. Other than entering your box office predictions, Do Not Modify it in any way! Predictions are due on May 30th, 2013.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 2013

After Earth (Opening May 31st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

This is the End (Opening June 12th, 5-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Man of Steel (Opening June 14th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Monsters University (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

World War Z (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

The Heat (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

White House Down (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Notes:
1) Do not modify the form in any way. Just copy it as is into your reply and replace the missing number values

2) Domestic Totals will be based on final gross as of Aug 31st for all June titles.

3) Opening weekend is defined the domestic box office gross a movie makes from its opening night to its first Sunday. If a movie opens on a Friday, you will predict a 3 day opening weekend. If it opens on a Wednesday, you will predict a 5 day opening weekend.

4) You do not have to predict worldwide grosses if you do not want to. They will be counted separately in a special bracket.



How the scoring will Work:

1) Every total box office prediction can earn you up to 100 points. Points earned drop off in a linear fashion based on how far off your prediction was. You need to be within 50% over or under to receive points for a film. For example, if you predict $200M for Man of Steel and it makes $200M, you would receive 100 points. If it makes $250M, you would receive 50 points. If it makes $300M+, you receive nothing.

2) Every opening weekend box office prediction can earn you up to 50 points. Points earned drop off in the manner described above.

4) Worldwide gross predictions are optional and will not count against you.



Need more information on June’s Films? Check the release slate below.

June 2013 Releases

After Earth
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Cast: Will Smith, Jaden Smith, Isabelle Fuhrman
Plot: A crash landing leaves Kitai Raige (Jaden Smith) and his father Cypher (Will Smith) stranded on Earth, 1,000 years after events forced humanity's escape. With Cypher injured, Kitai must embark on a perilous journey to signal for help.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUcNyzu4IdM

This is the End
Director: Evan Goldberg, Seth Rogen
Cast: James Franco, Jonah Hill, Seth Rogen, Jay Baruchel, Danny McBride, Craig Robinson
Plot: While attending a party at James Franco's house, Seth Rogen, Jay Baruchel and many other celebrities are faced with the apocalypse.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i24fo2W5EaE

Man of Steel
Director: Zack Snyder
Cast: Henry Cavill, Russell Crowe, Amy Adams, Kevin Costner, Michael Shannon
Plot: A young journalist, molded by the morals of his earth parents, discovers that he is gifted with powers beyond his imagination, and he uses those powers to defend his adopted home from an insidious evil.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVu3gS7iJu4

Monsters University
Director: Dan Scanlon
Cast: Billy Crystal, John Goodman, Steve Buscemi
Plot: A look at the relationship between Mike and Sulley during their days at Monsters University - when they weren't necessarily the best of friends.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODePHkWSg-U

World War Z
Director: Marc Forster
Cast: Brad Pitt, Mireille Enos, David Morse, Matthew Fox
Plot: United Nations employee Gerry Lane traverses the world in a race against time to stop the Zombie pandemic that is toppling armies and governments, and threatening to decimate humanity itself.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcwTxRuq-uk

The Heat
Director: Paul Feig
Cast: Sandra Bullock, Melissa McCarthy, Marlon Wayans
Plot: Uptight FBI special agent Sarah Ashburn is paired with testy Boston cop Shannon Mullins in order to take down a ruthless drug lord. The hitch: neither woman has ever had a partner -- or a friend for that matter.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-KKx0lcn2A

White House Down
Director: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Channing Tatum, Jamie Foxx, Maggie Gyllenhaal
Plot: While on a tour of the White House with his young daughter, a Capitol policeman springs into action to save his child and protect the president from a heavily armed group of paramilitary invaders.
Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AXbiCdmXgw



Points Standings: Updated May 23rd, 2013

May 2013 - based on predictions here: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=535605
Code:
1) Busty		263.2017687
2) Pachinko		225.0718953
3) jakncoke		201.1221883
4) Phoenician_Viking	181.5073447
5) davepoobond		176.572128
6) artist		167.6904528
7) Mushroomer25		162.3297035
8) kswiston		145.4819591
9) FatboyRoberts	143.482081
10) twinturbo2		65.77740743

NOTE: The standings above are based on the Opening Weekends of Iron Man 3, The Great Gatsby, and Star Trek: Into Darkness, as well as the domestic gross to date for Iron Man 3 and the Great Gatsby. Standings are not final as the domestic gross point totals will continue to be adjusted in the coming weeks.
 

kswiston

Member
ah, i didn't see it :(

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=564229


should we just keep with this one? i can post in the other.

Keep this one I guess. If people aren't interested, I will just continue to update the May rankings and leave it at that. If a few more people join in, we can continue the game in June.

I'm cutting bomb of the month because shifting release dates sort of messed up May for some people, and I have decided to focus on fewer movies. Basically the ones I think have a decent shot at $100M+
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
ah ok. well, its a cool idea. too bad people arent that interested. at least i wont end in last place :p
 

artist

Banned
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 2013

After Earth (Opening May 31st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $70M
- Domestic Total Gross: $210M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $520M

This is the End (Opening June 12th, 5-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $40M
- Domestic Total Gross: $85M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $160M

Man of Steel (Opening June 14th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $110M
- Domestic Total Gross: $325M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $705M

Monsters University (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $80M
- Domestic Total Gross: $260M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $650M

World War Z (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $50M
- Domestic Total Gross: $160M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $400M

The Heat (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $45M
- Domestic Total Gross: $140M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $250M

White House Down (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $45M
- Domestic Total Gross: $100M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $240M

Bomb of the Month: White House Down
 

jakncoke

Banned
After Earth (Opening May 31st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $65
- Domestic Total Gross: $150
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $450

This is the End (Opening June 12th, 5-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $35
- Domestic Total Gross: $90
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $300

Man of Steel (Opening June 14th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $140
- Domestic Total Gross: $320
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $800

Monsters University (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $100
- Domestic Total Gross: $300
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $900

World War Z (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $75
- Domestic Total Gross: $165
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $600

The Heat (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $28
- Domestic Total Gross: $60
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $200

White House Down (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $19
- Domestic Total Gross: $60
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $200
 

kswiston

Member
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 2013

After Earth (Opening May 31st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $40M
- Domestic Total Gross: $105M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $350M

This is the End (Opening June 12th, 5-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $35M
- Domestic Total Gross: $90M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $145M

Man of Steel (Opening June 14th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $110M
- Domestic Total Gross: $300M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $650M

Monsters University (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $85M
- Domestic Total Gross: $270M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $700M

World War Z (Opening June 21st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $35M
- Domestic Total Gross: $90M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $300M

The Heat (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $35M
- Domestic Total Gross: $120M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $200M

White House Down (Opening June 28th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $40M
- Domestic Total Gross: $100M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $230M
 
What time zone are you working in for today? When specifically would I have to get mine in here?

Edit: Nevermind, I see I missed a whole month :(

2nd edit: I don't think I'll have time today. Have fun with the contest though!
 

kswiston

Member
What time zone are you working in for today? When specifically would I have to get mine in here?

Edit: Nevermind, I see I missed a whole month :(

I will be doing a separate standings list for June, so you can still participate.

Just get your June predictions in by tomorrow afternoon (EST) before we get any numbers for After Earth.
 

DMczaf

Member
After Earth (Opening May 31st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $73 million
- Domestic Total Gross: $155 million
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $375 million

After Earth (Opening May 31st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $70M
- Domestic Total Gross: $210M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $520M

After Earth (Opening May 31st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $65
- Domestic Total Gross: $150
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $450

After Earth (Opening May 31st, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $40M
- Domestic Total Gross: $105M
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $350M

iGmpzK5IV3psr.gif
 

kswiston

Member
When you bet for an M Night movie being successful, everyone on Earth is allowed to gloat.

It's in the rule book.

His last movie opened to $40M and grossed over $130M domestically, despite being one of the worst films of the year. Before that the Happening opened to $30M on a $48M budget. Other than Lady in the Water, he's been pretty successful from a Box Office perspective. Also, this film had Will Smith.
 

DMczaf

Member
His last movie opened to $40M and grossed over $130M domestically, despite being one of the worst films of the year. Before that the Happening opened to $30M on a $48M budget. Other than Lady in the Water, he's been pretty successful from a Box Office perspective. Also, this film had Will Smith.

You thought an M Night movie would be successful.

In 2013.

You can throw out all the numbers you want. Throw Fresh Prince out there. I'll give you Jazzy Jeff and the ball and a 10 point lead.

You were betting on M Night in 2013.
 

kswiston

Member
You thought an M Night movie would be successful.

In 2013.

You can throw out all the numbers you want. Throw Fresh Prince out there. I'll give you Jazzy Jeff and the ball and a 10 point lead.

You were betting on M Night in 2013.

And you bet on nothing, so your opinion after the fact means little.

Play next month and you can heckle people for thinking Pacific Rim will open to $100M or whatever :p
 

jakncoke

Banned
Our The Purge predictions are going to be off quite a bit lol

Hell on Friday it did 16.7, thats more than basically all of our OW !
 

kswiston

Member
Anyone who still wants to jump in with their June Predictions ahead of Man of Steel are still free to do so! The five of us who made June predictions will all be taking a zero on After Earth, so newcomers are not at a disadvantage. I will also track months separately. See the OP for details on how to predict.

Here are the final May standings by Opening Weekend Only.

Code:
1) Pachinko		203.4010117
2) jakncoke		182.241151
3) twinturbo2		178.2711417
4) Mushroomer25		178.0910759
5) FatboyRoberts	172.0934724
6) kswiston		139.0256568
7) davepoobond		138.2792783
8) Busty		130.3482414
9) artist		129.7276332
10) Phoenician_Viking	113.9064225

Perfect Score = 300 pts

Domestic totals haven't settled enough for the scores including them to be meaningful yet. I will post the May standings including Domestic totals in a week or two as the runs for most of those films wind down.

Congrats to Pachinko for his accurate opening weekend predictions!

artist probably would have been higher if he made a prediction for Epic.
 

kswiston

Member
kswiston, are we going to include the Walmart previews into the OW for MoS?

I'm not entirely sure of what the promotion entailed. Do you know if those tickets were regular price and did not require any additional purchases? If they were just sold as regular tickets that you had to buy from Walmart instead of Fandango or wherever, they should count (even though I'd be better off without that extra $12M tacked on :p)
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
oh we didnt even predict The Purge.


also, i think my 73 million for AE was probably a bit optimistic, but that was hoping that people would mostly ignore Shymalan and go for Will Smith only.
 

kswiston

Member
the 3.5 day $128.6M figure will be the one used for Man of Steel's gross.

I'll post updated standings for May, tomorrow. I will wait until this weekend to post standings for June, since it's basically just MoS's opening weekend so far. Technically, After Earth as well, but I think we will all be taking zero points for that one.
 

kswiston

Member
May Prediction standings (based on opening weekend and domestic totals)

Code:
1) Pachinko		538.4038299
2) Busty		484.939275
3) Mushroomer25		462.2349444
4) davepoobond		461.2487833
5) Phoenician_Viking	447.215166
6) jakncoke		446.2050577
7) FatboyRoberts	393.9174118
8) kswiston		389.5258329
9) artist		294.9056725
10) twinturbo2		180.5043924

I will post early June Standings in another week or so when the rest of the predicted films have opened.

I'm not sure that there is much interest in this thread still (only 5 people participated in June), but if you are interested in predicting July's movies for fun, here is the new ballot. As always, don't change anything other than the XXs for your predictions. To newcomers, I tally each month separately, so you don't need to worry if you missed May/June.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR JULY 2013

Despicable Me (Opening July 3rd, 5-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

The Lone Ranger (Opening July 3rd, 5-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Grown Ups 2 (Opening July 12th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Pacific Rim (Opening July 12th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

R.I.P.D (Opening July 19th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

Red 2 (Opening June 19th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

The Wolverine (Opening July 26th, 3-day weekend)
- Opening Weekend: $XXM
- Domestic Total Gross: $XXXM
- (Bonus) Worldwide Total: $XXXM

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Predictions are Due Jul 3rd
 

artist

Banned
The Heat is look at around 45M for the weekend and WHD around 30M, numbers could change but I feel good by my predictions :)
 

kswiston

Member
Deadline is today guys.

Doesn't look like the interest is there for this sort of thing on GAF. If I do prediction thread again next year, I might just pick the 10 most anticipated films for the entire summer and leave it at that (which you and others suggested in April).
 
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