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New ABC / Washington Post poll for 2016 General Election
- Thread starter Oddduck
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KingDonkeykong
Neo Member
YAASSS QUEEN!!'nn
KingDonkeykong
Neo Member
This election is going to be a huge blowout for the democrats. However, we need to see some red state become Blue on November.
KingDonkeykong
Neo Member
These polls look promising but we need to win the young voters.
Chezzymann
Member
Dang trumps winning 46% 44% currently? Hopefully thats just cause the democratic primary is still going...
BotoxAgent
Member
Id wait till Hillary clinches the nom and Bernie and his supporters calm down a bit. This is probably Trumps best period right now.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Meh, I think we have seen how polling data, especially this far out isn't all that great. Still would love to see someone come out with a electoral path for Trump.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Just wait until Trump undergoes four months of constant attacks by Democrats and their Super PACs. That 46 will drop precipitously.
BotoxAgent
Member
There's another poll by NYT and has $hillary at +6, so yeah a lot of noise right now. But I am super confident Trump is going to get blown out.
at the same time trump will turn further right hoping to capture any conservatives hesitant to vote for him. which will end up alienating a ton of more people.
legacyzero
Banned
All the way to the convention.
KingDonkeykong
Neo Member
Wait I saw those polls having Clinton trump that boor by 2 points. Dammit! I was so happy to see how high trumps unfavorable ratings to Clinton that I didn't even look at the poll right.
Black Republican
Member
the fact that many people would vote or side with trump despite the things he said speaks volumes
KingDonkeykong
Neo Member
Hope to God this poll is more accurate than this subpar WSJ poll.
a lot of willful ignorant bigots
cartoon_soldier
Member
Where's the thread about NBC poll that had Clinton +3 on Trump?
KingDonkeykong
Neo Member
Fixed
entremet
Member
People care about themselves first and foremost. Elections haven't changed this. Don't underestimate how many just don't like Hilary either. Both in policy and persona.
It's not always voting for a candidate but voting against a candidate.
Trump gets the benefit of the post-clinch bump and the Republicans coming home. Hillary will get a similar boost once Bernie finally goes away and things will return to what they were two/three weeks ago where Clinton had a solid 5/6 pt edge.
National polls don't mean much though.
translated into
Demographics and the electoral college's dem lean inherently mean this is Clinton's election to lose, regardless of what polls say. Trump would have to sweep every swing state and get into Dem territory for him to have a chance. These polls are good in that they scare people out of complacency. Every vote matters.
National polls don't mean much though.
translated into
Demographics and the electoral college's dem lean inherently mean this is Clinton's election to lose, regardless of what polls say. Trump would have to sweep every swing state and get into Dem territory for him to have a chance. These polls are good in that they scare people out of complacency. Every vote matters.
It's a heated, emotional time. Give it some time. Clinton will give Bernie something and they should mostly come home.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Entitled people.
Lactose_Intolerant
Member
I don't think it will be close in the end. People just want the show to continue, bored people and the media.
the young people who hate the establishment, hate the status quo, and in the words of a wise man "Some men just wanna watch the world burn"
Economics being ranked so highly with Trump despite the fact he's literally said he'd be okay giving international creditors less than face value for debts thus kneecapping the Treasury's safety and other such things is maddening. It speaks volumes of just how ignorant people are in seeing BUSINESS MAN = GOOD ECON? when all evidence from interviews points to vastly different outcomes.
Also wonder if poll excludes undecided like literally every other network poll excludes that usually skew the fuck out of the poll.
Also wonder if poll excludes undecided like literally every other network poll excludes that usually skew the fuck out of the poll.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
National polls don't matter right now. Never mind the laughable notion that Hillary is virtually tied with Trump among young voters. Stop it.
Hillary will win a larger victory than Obama's 2012 win.
Hillary will win a larger victory than Obama's 2012 win.
entremet
Member
Actually, if we go by the WV primary, it's many blue collar workers who traditionally vote Red but find Bernie's populist message appealing.
This Bernie Bros boogie man is beyond silly.
Bandwagoners who just want "change" regardless of what exactly that means or accelerationists.
edit: And as post above said, white guys who want to reverse globalization.
Anyway, I'm not thinking it's really going to be a blow out in the end. The electoral map will probably end up looking pretty similar to what it's been the last few cycles since the Republicans are all solidifying behind Trump rather than breaking ranks. Now if Georgia and Arizona flip, though...
Going by the WV primary seems like a bad idea considering the large chunk of Bernie voters that would vote for Trump instead of him in a general. Screwy!
Bel Marduk
Banned
This is disastrous for Clinton -- its the third recent poll that shows her losing to Donald fucking Trump. She needs to embrace more progressive positions on labor rights and economic issues to entice Sanders voters into switching over to her.
Running about even about 18-29 voters should not be acceptable for a Democratic candidate but Clinton supporters have mocked and alienated this group so much that it's little surprise.
Running about even about 18-29 voters should not be acceptable for a Democratic candidate but Clinton supporters have mocked and alienated this group so much that it's little surprise.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Trump gets the benefit of the post-clinch bump and the Republicans coming home. Hillary will get a similar boost once Bernie finally goes away and things will return to what they were two/three weeks ago where Clinton had a solid 5/6 pt edge.
National polls don't mean much though.
translated into
Demographics and the electoral college's dem lean inherently mean this is Clinton's election to lose, regardless of what polls say. Trump would have to sweep every swing state and get into Dem territory for him to have a chance. These polls are good in that they scare people out of complacency. Every vote matters.
Yep, this is the real take away. Cool polls shows X, Y, Z, that is how polling works. Show me a electoral path to the Trump presidency.
She is fine, if you don't like her policies vote for Trump.
As if it matters, shes POTUS not God.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Just gonna keep watching the poll average and I won't start worrying until those start flipping.
Bel Marduk
Banned
The aggregate on Talking Points Memo shows Clinton with a 0.6% lead. I would be worried.
Those voters won't even think about switching until he drops out. She's still got a two-sided fight going on, that's why these numbers look the way they do. If they don't change after Bernie drops out then that's a problem.
teruterubozu
Member
The polls are gonna be dogshit from here on out. Large swaths of people don't want to admit voting for either candidate. This a weird election.
So this is a joke, right?
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Did you not sit through the polling for the previous Republican primary, the 08 GE, 12 GE?
Where is the electoral path for Trump?
Lord_Byron28
Member
Yeah for all the people on here who blame Sanders for causing issues with Hillary. He attacks Trump relentlessly all the time way more than he speaks negatively of Clinton. He speaker way higher and more respectful of Clinton than he does Trump. It's obvious that he's pulling right wing leaning "independents" who are attracted to his anti-establishment, anti-Hillary, populist messages.
Thought this would be a link to Huelen.
Abstrusity
Member
"The system is broken beyond repair, this guy will fix it or burn it downso we can start over."
"Oh, this guy is losing to someone who wants the system to stay the way it is."
"Better vote for literally anyone else if I'm going to vote."
Alternatively, ABC/WaPo poll? Let's be honest, you have like 10 under 30s that actually participate in them. Online polls are not data, there are too few people participating, and you get the same selection biases you'd get by conducting only phone polling.
"Oh, this guy is losing to someone who wants the system to stay the way it is."
"Better vote for literally anyone else if I'm going to vote."
Alternatively, ABC/WaPo poll? Let's be honest, you have like 10 under 30s that actually participate in them. Online polls are not data, there are too few people participating, and you get the same selection biases you'd get by conducting only phone polling.
Orbis Tabula
Member
It's definitely narrowing. I picked HuffPollster as my average of choice early on, so I feel I should stick with that. But even that shows narrowing. Once Sam Wang starts putting out numbers, I'll probably pivot to that, though. His analysis is better than just averaging national polls.
Anyway, I'm not gonna worry until he passes her, just narrowing isn't enough to really freak me out.
metalslimer
Member
Not really worried, but hopefully these polls put the fear of god in all the people thinking this is going to be some joke race.
We go through this every GE. There will always be a new Karl Rove and Dick Morris.
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