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[Stinkles]

This is disastrous for Clinton -- its the third recent poll that shows her losing to Donald fucking Trump. She needs to embrace more progressive positions on labor rights and economic issues to entice Sanders voters into switching over to her.

Running about even about 18-29 voters should not be acceptable for a Democratic candidate but Clinton supporters have mocked and alienated this group so much that it's little surprise.

I don't think you understood this poll.

 

[Blader]

She’s losing 20 percent of Bernie Sanders’ supporters to Trump

That's actually pretty good at this point, isn't it? Wasn't there a much bigger gap between Hillary and Obama supporters around this time in '08?

Who are these people currently backing Bernie and thinking "well, if this guy isn't the nominee at least Trump will more accurately represent my interests than Clinton!!"?

Young white liberals with nothing to lose.

Spoiler

/youngwhiteliberal

 

[Bel Marduk]

So this is a joke, right?

How would that be a joke? Smug and complacent doesn't win elections.

 

[metalslimer]

Also 43% of the country wants to ban muslims from entering....we've really reached this point.

 

[thepotatoman]

Not really worried, but hopefully these polls put the fear of god in all the people thinking this is going to be some joke race.

Yeah, I can definitely see the argument that Hillary is still the more likely to win thanks to the timing of each party getting their unity, but it already becoming this close with polls going between +2 trump to +3 clinton makes it seem like the predicted landslide victory combined with the death of the republican party was premature.

Hard to gloat about being able to attack republican candidates for endorsing trump when Trump's currently running tied to her.

 

[giga]

How would that be a joke? Smug and complacent doesn't win elections.

How does this poll in any way show that she needs more liberal policies? Are you seeing the number on undocumented workers and Muslims?

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

How would that be a joke? Smug and complacent doesn't win elections.

So no Trump.

 

[Bel Marduk]

I don't think you understood this poll.

Yes, I read all the crosstabs. You should. too. Its not a good trajectory for Clinton.

 

[sphagnum]

That's actually pretty good at this point, isn't it? Wasn't there a much bigger gap between Hillary and Obama supporters around this time in '08?

Yes, something like 40%.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Yes, I read all the crosstabs. You should. too. Its not a good trajectory for Clinton.

Please show me an electoral map that Trump can win.

 

[metalslimer]

How this poll in any way show that she needs more liberal policies? Are you seeing the number on undocumented workers and Muslims?

People conflate Sanders favorability numbers with his policy ideas.

 

[Black Republican]

Trump gets the benefit of the post-clinch bump and the Republicans coming home. Hillary will get a similar boost once Bernie finally goes away and things will return to what they were two/three weeks ago where Clinton had a solid 5/6 pt edge.

National polls don't mean much though.

translated into

Demographics and the electoral college's dem lean inherently mean this is Clinton's election to lose, regardless of what polls say. Trump would have to sweep every swing state and get into Dem territory for him to have a chance. These polls are good in that they scare people out of complacency. Every vote matters.

Ah, the election that ethered Gallups career

 

[The Faceless Master]

so many people keep assuming that Bernie will just go away and it will be just pure smooth sailing after that.

i'm terrified that Trump will actually win...

 

[Y2Kev]

Yes, I read all the crosstabs. You should. too. Its not a good trajectory for Clinton.

It is not possible to have read the crosstabs and think she needs to move to the left. There's an even split of voters on the freaking Muslim ban and deporting immigrants!

 

[giga]

Trump gets the benefit of the post-clinch bump and the Republicans coming home. Hillary will get a similar boost once Bernie finally goes away and things will return to what they were two/three weeks ago where Clinton had a solid 5/6 pt edge.

National polls don't mean much though.

translated into

Demographics and the electoral college's dem lean inherently mean this is Clinton's election to lose, regardless of what polls say. Trump would have to sweep every swing state and get into Dem territory for him to have a chance. These polls are good in that they scare people out of complacency. Every vote matters.

This was a "squeaker" election according to Dick Morris.

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-i-was-wrong/

Real talk: the only polls that will matter are ones in swing states.

 

[GitarooMan]

Please show me an electoral map that Trump can win.

He can't because there isn't one unless something dramatically changes between now and November.

 

[spock]

Anecdotal, but here in NH Trump has gainer more votes and ground, especially against Clinton. People I would not expect to support him are supporting him.

Some additional thoughts...

While Trump has not done a full on pivot, what he has done is quieted down for the most part. Hes letting some kind of word of mouth campaign do the work while getting more people to forget his high/low points in prior months. I think this is a strategic play. A potentially smart one. While I thought he would pivot (and do so much sooner) what he is doing now is not upsetting his original base by pivoting to much while picking up new and disenfranchised support.

There is a lot of growing disdain for Hillary from what I'm seeing in NH. Whatever shes doing is not improving her standing with those who where on the fence with her.

NH has the potential to swing Trump IMO and I'm sure its not the only state with something brewing.

Also, all the people saying give it more time and once the "noise" settles down Trump will lose more points to Hillary, sound just like all those people who dismissed Trump to begin with.

As one of the few people who saw Trump as a legit force here on Gaf for quite some time, I think peeps should not take this dude lightly.Sadly I think the race is going to be closer than people here anticipate. I wont bet I'm on him winning just yet but the possibility is much stronger than I think many are willing to acknowledge.

90% of the people I talked to about Hillary, Trump, supreme court, etc. barely know much beyond the surface. Because of that, Trumps fame as a business man, etc is something they all know. Regardless of how much is true or false. Out of the same percentage many people have an idea surrounding so called lies ,etc involving Hillary but lack and real details.

This is really telling IMO. The majority of people are not going to do huge amount of research, etc.

 

[Bel Marduk]

How does this poll in any way show that she needs more liberal policies? Are you seeing the number on undocumented workers and Muslims?

By appealing to a broader Democratic electorate (ie younger voters) so that they will coalesce around her candidacy the way that Republicans are starting to do around Trump.
All Trump has to do is flip a few states (IA, OH, FL, VA) from the 2012 map. I would be horrified by a Trump presidency but its not an impossibility.

 

[Y2Kev]

Yeah just flip all the swing states

 

[giga]

By appealing to a broader Democratic electorate (ie younger voters) so that they will coalesce around her candidacy the way that Republicans are starting to do around Trump.
All Trump has to do is flip a few states (IA, OH, FL, VA) from the 2012 map. I would be horrified by a Trump presidency but its not an impossibility.

This will happen by itself after the convention, as it always does after every primary.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Yeah just flip all the swing states

Hey it isn't impossible though!

It isn't going to happen though.

By appealing to a broader Democratic electorate (ie younger voters) so that they will coalesce around her candidacy the way that Republicans are starting to do around Trump.
All Trump has to do is flip a few states (IA, OH, FL, VA) from the 2012 map. I would be horrified by a Trump presidency but its not an impossibility.

Hillary isn't appealing to my liberal sensibilities, so I'm going to vote Trump and/or take my toys home. Least you'll have your principles as you are living in the horror movie that is a Trump presidency.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Yeah just flip all the swing states

The four that I mentioned, which would give Trump 272 electoral votes.

 

[User 463088]

By appealing to a broader Democratic electorate (ie younger voters) so that they will coalesce around her candidacy the way that Republicans are starting to do around Trump.
All Trump has to do is flip a few states (IA, OH, FL, VA) from the 2012 map. I would be horrified by a Trump presidency but its not an impossibility.

And she will do that...once Bernie is no longer being a distraction. Once he's gone, then the party will unify. But, with Bernie out there calling her the lesser of two evils, it's damn hard to do it right now with as many straw (wo)men as he's built.

And someone mentioned Bernie taking it to the convention. Sure, why not. Hillary will win on the first ballot, and Bernie can kiss his committee assignments goodbye, as well as any chance he had at actually influencing the platform.

 

[giga]

The four that I mentioned, which would give Trump 272 electoral votes.

Winning Florida with the highest hispanic unfavorables ever would be quite a feat.

 

[Inspector Jones]

Not really worried, but hopefully these polls put the fear of god in all the people thinking this is going to be some joke race.

I think a portion of the people on Gaf don't take into account how many people dislike her (especially us young people; though to be fair many don't seem to be involved at all). If she wasn't running against Trump, she'd probably lose the GE and if she wins, the biggest reason will be that her opponent is a gigantic asshole.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Winning Florida with the highest hispanic unfavorables ever would be quite a feat.

Yes, a high population with a very unfavorable opinion of Trump. Unfortunately, Hispanics have historically had lower turnout rates than other racial groups. Texas also has a huge Hispanic population but they just don't have the turnout rates that blue collar whites do.
It also has a much higher rate of Mexican Americans than Florida does. The majority of hispanics here are from Puerto Rico, which is a US territory and Cubans, who can immigrate much more easily than Mexicans (on our end.) I'd imagine that Trump's wall and derogatory comments are much more insulting to Mexican Americans than other Hispanic groups.

I'm not saying that a Trump victory is likely -- just that its more possible than the people in this thread have been acknowledging.

 

[KingK]

Meh, after the primary she'll get a bit of a bump. I'm expecting the final results to be similar to 2012. I mean, it shouldn't even be as close as that since this should be a fucking landslide considering Donald Trump, but Hillary isn't half the candidate Obama was.

Pretty much any dem imaginable could win this cycle though. I am a little worried about low turnout hurting things considering the historic negative views of the two candidates, but the prospect of a Trump presidency should be enough to get people to come out and vote against him, even if they don't particularly like Clinton.

Edit: it's not impossible for Trump to win. If there's very low turnout and he continues to keep the republicans unified behind him, there is a narrow path. Any republican would get 45-47% of the popular vote at least. It would have to be really bad turnout though.

 

[Brinbe]

Yes, a high population with a very unfavorable opinion of Trump. Unfortunately, Hispanics have historically had lower turnout rates than other racial groups. Texas also has a huge Hispanic population but they just don't have the turnout rates that blue collar whites do.
It also has a much higher rate of Mexican Americans than Florida does. The majority of hispanics here are from Puerto Rico, which is a US territory and Cubans, who can immigrate here legally. I'd imagine that Trump's wall and derogatory comments are much more insulting to Mexican Americans than other Hispanic groups.

I'm not saying that a Trump victory is likely -- just that its more possible than the people in this thread have been acknowledging.

Nope
http://thehill.com/latino/277824-hispanics-in-swing-states-create-daunting-electoral-map-for-gop

Registration among Hispanic voters is skyrocketing in a presidential election cycle dominated by Donald Trump and loud GOP cries to close the border.

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials, projects 13.1 million Hispanics will vote nationwide in 2016, compared to 11.2 million in 2012 and 9.7 million in 2008.

Many of those new Hispanic voters are also expected to vote against Trump if he is the Republican nominee, something that appears much more likely after the front-runner’s sweeping primary victories Tuesday in five East Coast states.

A whopping 80 percent of respondents in a poll of registered Hispanic voters in Colorado and Nevada said Trump's views on immigration made them less likely to vote for Republicans in November. In Florida, that number was 68 percent.

The figures are sparking confident tones from Democrats, who think their party’s nominee will benefit from a huge advantage in the fall not only in the presidential race but also in battles for the House and Senate.

Because of the contrast between the GOP and Democratic fields, “we feel absolutely confident about our chances of electing Democrats up and down the ballot in November,” said Walter Garcia, western regional communication director for the Democratic National Committee.

Many of the newly registered Hispanic voters are in California and Texas, relatively safe states for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.

In fact, because so many Hispanic voters live in those states, the effect of the rising registration numbers will be somewhat undercut, according to Vargas.

Still, rising registration rates among Hispanics in Colorado, Florida and Nevada could make it easier for the Democratic candidate to retain those swing states. Even Arizona could be in play, say some poll watchers.

Registration is a game-changer with Hispanic voters.

Only about 48 percent of eligible Hispanics vote, but nearly 80 percent of registered Hispanics go to the ballot box.

Democrats have already targeted Colorado, Florida and Nevada with at least $15 million for Hispanic outreach, according to Vargas.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/18/latinos-donald-trump-voter-registration-swing-states

A poll of Hispanic Americans carried out by Latino Decisions and America’s Voice in April found some 87% of Latinos felt unfavorably towards him. Significantly, almost half said they felt more enthusiastic about voting in the presidential election than they did four years ago, and 41% of those said it was because they wanted to “stop Trump”.

In Florida, groups report that new Hispanic voter registrations are running at 1,000 a week. (Some 2.6 million Hispanics are eligible to vote in Florida for this year’s general election, and about 800,000 of them have not yet registered.)

That unprecedented number corresponds – not coincidentally, Latino organizers believe – with polls that show almost nine in 10 Latino Floridians view Trump unfavorably.

Clinton is carrying FL.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Nope

I'm aware of that. It still doesn't address turnout issues in the Hispanic community.

 

[Y2Kev]

If the threat of your president being a huge racist who thinks eating taco bowls is a key part of his appeal to your ethnicity doesn't get you to vote, then you probably wouldn't vote under any circumstance.

 

[giga]

Yes, a high population with a very unfavorable opinion of Trump. Unfortunately, Hispanics have historically had lower turnout rates than other racial groups. Texas also has a huge Hispanic population but they just don't have the turnout rates that blue collar whites do.
It also has a much higher rate of Mexican Americans than Florida does. The majority of hispanics here are from Puerto Rico, which is a US territory and Cubans, who can immigrate much more easily than Mexicans (on our end.) I'd imagine that Trump's wall and derogatory comments are much more insulting to Mexican Americans than other Hispanic groups.

I'm not saying that a Trump victory is likely -- just that its more possible than the people in this thread have been acknowledging.

Nope.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/01/...rward-to-2016-the-changing-latino-electorate/

Both registration and turnout (in raw numbers) for Democrats have been increasing each year.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Meh, after the primary she'll get a bit of a bump. I'm expecting the final results to be similar to 2012. I mean, it shouldn't even be as close as that since this should be a fucking landslide considering Donald Trump, but Hillary isn't half the candidate Obama was.

Pretty much any dem imaginable could win this cycle though. I am a little worried about low turnout hurting things considering the historic negative views of the two candidates, but the prospect of a Trump presidency should be enough to get people to come out and vote against him, even if they don't particularly like Clinton.

Yeah, there's still a lot of time here, and a lot of support for Hilary that will be coming out in full force once we're past the primary. She just better not fuck up the debates, because an insane amount of people will be watching.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

These polls look promising but we need to win the young voters.

How do these polls look promising

Right wing voters will continue to break harder for trump the closer we get to election time

Left wingers are being way too optimistic about this election

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

I'm aware of that. It still doesn't address turnout issues in the Hispanic community.

So you think they are registering in droves so they cannot turn out?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

It is not possible to have read the crosstabs and think she needs to move to the left. There's an even split of voters on the freaking Muslim ban and deporting immigrants!

By move to the left, they mean economically. The reason Sanders does much better in polling against Trump than Clinton does is because he carries white 50-something working class men in formerly industrialized areas who've seen the collapse of their local economies as everything got outsourced and industry moved abroad, and he does that because he's rightly suspicious of deals like TTIP and talks (a lot) about how the economy is rigged - and if you grew up in Rust Belt, you sure feel like the economy is rigged right now. They don't feel like Clinton offers them anything.

That said, while Clinton is a terrible candidate, she'll still win this. Trump would need to win more of the white vote than Reagan did and on a better turnout given Clinton's minority figures, and she'll have Obama and Sanders both stumping for her (eventually), so that covers a lot of ground.

 

[Brinbe]

How do these polls look promising

Right wing voters will continue to break harder for trump the closer we get to election time

Left wingers are being way too optimistic about this election

They look promising because Trump is sailing through uncontested with the party unifying behind him and Clinton is still in the midst of a heated nomination battle. These things have ebbs and flows and Trump is riding as high as he'll likely ever get. Wait a month from now, when Hillary's clinched and she and her Bernie have hopefully been somewhat united. The polling will improve.

And what's the electoral path for him to achieve victory? I'm still waiting for someone to plot out a plausible path!

 

[User 463088]

They look promising because Trump is sailing through uncontested with the party unifying behind him and Clinton is still in the midst of a heated nomination battle. These things have ebbs and flows and Trump is riding as high as he'll likely ever get. Wait a month from now, when Hillary's clinched and she and her Bernie have hopefully been somewhat united. The polling will improve.

And what's the electoral path for him to achieve victory? I'm still waiting for someone to plot out a plausible path!

For him to win, you just have to pretend that Demographics don't matter. And then she'll lose...

 

[Bel Marduk]

Nope.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/

Yes, the younger generation of Cuban Americans is far more Democratic than previous generations. They haven't been subjugated to the barrage of Cold War propaganda their grandparents were -- It was assumed by the older generations that Republicans were tougher toward Castro. In 2012, Romney won this population by four points.

As a Floridian, I would love the prospect of state and local governments being controlled by Democrats -- but its just not as likely as long as Hispanic turnout remains low. It would be fantastic if I were wrong about this but history shows otherwise.

So you think they are registering in droves so they cannot turn out?

I wouldn't call that "in droves." Its up slightly from 2014..

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

They look promising because Trump is sailing through uncontested with the party unifying behind him and Clinton is still in the midst of a heated nomination battle. These things have ebbs and flows and Trump is riding as high as he'll likely ever get. Wait a month from now, when Hillary's clinched and she and her Bernie have hopefully been somewhat united. The polling will improve.

And what's the electoral path for him to achieve victory? I'm still waiting for someone to plot out a plausible path!

Did you think he had a chance of securing the nom months back?

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Did you think he had a chance of securing the nom months back?

When you have sixteen candidates anything is possible. Primaries aren't generals, where is the electoral path for Trump?

 

[Brinbe]

Did you think he had a chance of securing the nom months back?

Yes? Absolutely. I thought it was his nomination to lose last year. He was dominating the GOP primary polling for months and no one else was gaining traction even with a crowded field. It was apparent early that it was his contest to lose.

 

[Renji_11]

By appealing to a broader Democratic electorate (ie younger voters) so that they will coalesce around her candidacy the way that Republicans are starting to do around Trump.
All Trump has to do is flip a few states (IA, OH, FL, VA) from the 2012 map. I would be horrified by a Trump presidency but its not an impossibility.

No way he flips Va republicans here in Nova hate him and the Hispanic turn out will be huge.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yeah just flip all the swing states

Romney had the same pathway to victory.

All he has to do is be Romney, a flip-flopping millionaire.

Oh wait!

 

[Bel Marduk]

No way he flips Va republicans here in Nova hate him and the Hispanic turn out will be huge.

Well, before 2008, Virginia voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964. While Northern Virginia is reliably blue, other areas (including the state's most populated city) are light red.

While population growth in NOVA and record-high African American turnout worked together to ensure Obama's victory twice -- its not a given that the same thing will happen again. Clinton will undoubtedly get a huge victory of black voters in Virginia and everywhere else but compared to the turnout for the first African American president?? Given the history of this country and Virginia in particular? I don't think she will reach the same levels.

 

[GuyKazama]

And what's the electoral path for him to achieve victory? I'm still waiting for someone to plot out a plausible path!

Just for fun, here's one I made.

Gave Hillary 100% of Hispanic/Latino and raised their turnout
Gave Trump 15% of Black, and kept turnout the same
No change for Asian
Increased Non-College educated white turnout, and gave more to Trump
Increased by less educated white trunout, and gave slightly more to Trump

Comes up with Trump at 274, even with significant demographic losses to Hillary. I don't think it is anywhere near accurate, but I also don't think Trump needs the latino vote to win.

 

[B-Dubs]

Just for fun, here's one I made.

Gave Hillary 100% of Hispanic/Latino and raised their turnout
Gave Trump 15% of Black, and kept turnout the same
No change for Asian
Increased Non-College educated white turnout, and gave more to Trump
Increased by less educated white turnout, and gave slightly more to Trump

Comes up with Trump at 274, even with significant demographic losses to Hillary. I don't think it is anywhere near accurate, but I also don't think Trump needs the latino vote to win.

He's not going to get 15% of the black vote.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Well, before 2008, Virginia voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964. While Northern Virginia is reliably blue, other areas (including the state's most populated city) are light red.

While population growth in NOVA and record-high African American turnout worked together to ensure Obama's victory twice -- its not a given that the same thing will happen again. Clinton will undoubtedly get a huge victory of black voters in Virginia and everywhere else but compared to the turnout for the first African American president?? Given the history of this country and Virginia in particular? I don't think she will reach the same levels.

Black voters have been turning out at increasingly higher numbers ever since 96. Obama may have given them a kick in the butt but it was simply augmenting a trend that was already happening.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/10/17/upshot/black-turnout-in-1964-and-beyond.html?referer=

Furthermore that same trend in VA is what allowed Terry McAuliffe and Mark Warner to win in off-year elections that absolutely would have gone GOP a decade ago.

The thing about trends is that they continue happening and they continue expanding. "But Virginia voted red before 2008" is irrelevant. California voted red before 1992 and by 2000 it was safe D. Similarly, Virginia went slightly to the right of the nation in 08 to slightly to the left in 2012. That isn't to say Trump could win, but expecting a complete reversal of the trends seen over the last ten years because they've voted Republican in previous elections is simply foolish.

Obama will be campaigning hard for Hillary and her approval ratings among AA voters are incredibly high. There's no need for concern (or concern trolling if we're being honest with ourselves, iirc you're not even voting for her)

 

[gutter_trash]

Who are these people currently backing Bernie and thinking "well, if this guy isn't the nominee at least Trump will more accurately represent my interests than Clinton!!"?

white male race resenters

 

[Brinbe]

Just for fun, here's one I made.

Gave Hillary 100% of Hispanic/Latino and raised their turnout
Gave Trump 15% of Black, and kept turnout the same
No change for Asian
Increased Non-College educated white turnout, and gave more to Trump
Increased by less educated white trunout, and gave slightly more to Trump

Comes up with Trump at 274, even with significant demographic losses to Hillary. I don't think it is anywhere near accurate, but I also don't think Trump needs the latino vote to win.

hahaha Trump winning all of MN/WI/OH/PA/IA/NH is definitely plausible. I mean come the fuck on... On Minnesota alone

From 1932 onward, the state has primarily voted Democratic, last voting Republican during Nixon’s landslide victory in 1972. Only Washington DC has a longer Democratic winning streak. In 1984, Minnesotans gave homegrown Senator Mondale his only state in the lopsided loss to Ronald Reagan. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 7.7%.

 

[smurfx]

If the threat of your president being a huge racist who thinks eating taco bowls is a key part of his appeal to your ethnicity doesn't get you to vote, then you probably wouldn't vote under any circumstance.

hispanic groups haven't even started the anti trump campaigns. they will have months and months of turning people against trump in a big way. univision is likely going to be very anti trump as well.