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[Aaron Strife]

Have never understood this. Why is she awful? Very few are more qualified for the position than her.

She's just not a good retail politician. I think once she actually gets in she'll be ridiculously shrewd and effective, but she doesn't have the same personable charm as Clinton or Obama.

Part of that imo is subconscious sexism in the media - female politicians are held to a much higher standard than men. If you're not all smiles and rainbows 24/7 you're a bitch.

 

[Brinbe]

When taken as a whole, yes, the national polling has tightened in Trump's favor over the past several weeks. But as explained earlier, that's a result of GOP voters quickly coalescing behind the presumed nominee who is now running unopposed versus a hobbled Clinton who's still having to deal Sanders and a somewhat fractured Dem party. For the most part, she's been laying low as well and not going at Trump as strongly as we can expect in the summer/fall.

In many ways, this can be taken as Hillary's absolute floor, and she's still winning! Again, come back in a month or so when she's actually won her nomination battle, Bernie's endorsed her, and she has a united Democratic party led by Barack/Michelle, her husband, (maybe Bernie/Jane Sanders?), Uncle Joe, and every other Dem rolling out there as surrogates gunning at Trump's throat. That lead WILL widen again.

 

[old]

43% support Muslim ban.

That's a lot larger than I thought.

 

[Third Strike]

This seems like a good climate to launch a 3rd party on the left or right. They could actually win real electoral votes and even if they didn't win would sow seeds for a more diverse system.

With our current system, having another major third party would do quite the opposite. Such a party would siphon votes away from one of the other major parties, which would give the opposing political party a landslide in the general election. If by a small miracle that said party equally takes votes away from both parties, than you're possibly left with a scenario where the House of Representatives would have to pick the president, and it would be either a Democrat or Republican. We would need to move to a more proportional voting system in order for a decent third party to take rise, or at least amend part of the Twelfth Amendment.

 

[Prototype Viktor]

It's a heated, emotional time. Give it some time. Clinton will give Bernie something and they should mostly come home.

I don't actually believe that this time looking at Bernie's whipping ppl into basically want her in jail

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Romney's states + FL, OH, and PA.

Two rust belt states where his message resonates the most (not to mention Hillary going nuclear on coal) and a traditional battleground state that Obama won by less than one percent.

PA isn't going to turn and FL will more than likely roll Hillary with the Latino vote.

 

[Netherscourge]

This is the one that matters - the Electoral College:

 

[BanGy.nz]

Clinton has growth potential all over this spreadsheet while Trump is rapidly approaching the republican ceiling. Sad!

 

[MIMIC]

Have never understood this. Why is she awful? Very few are more qualified for the position than her.

The never-ending scandals, the robotic personality, the lies...

 

[Wafflecakes]

The made up scandals that go nowhere, the fact that she has female genitalia, that she isn't MY candidate...

Interesting.

 

[Oblivion]

The never-ending scandals, the robotic personality, the lies...

don't forget benghazi

 

[MIMIC]

don't forget benghazi

I didn't say they had any merit. I'm just saying that every time you look up, she's always in a scandal.

 

[Wafflecakes]

I didn't say they had any merit. I'm just saying that every time you look up, she's always in a scandal.

If the other party disliking you enough to make up scandals makes you a bad candidate.... well I guess Dems are always going to have bad candidates.

 

[Havoc2049]

Hillary needs to put herself out there more. I swear, over the last several weeks it seems like for every one interview that Hillary does, Trump does like ten. Every time I turn on the news Trump is at a rally, speaking at some event, on a phone interview, giving a live interview or the news is talking about his latest tweet. The dude is a machine.

 

[Team Alucard]

If the other party disliking you enough to make up scandals makes you a bad candidate.... well I guess Dems are always going to have bad candidates.

Made up scandals and smear attacks will always be a factor, but its up to the candidate to handle them in the right way to mitigate the damage.

Dukakis had to deal with Willie Horton. He failed to respond to it properly and it sank his candidacy.

Kerry had to deal with the SBVFT. He failed to respond to it properly and it sank his candidacy.

Obama had to deal with Rev Wright and birtherism, but he handled it in the right manner, weathered the storm, and ultimately it didn't hurt him.

From day 1 Clinton has done an awful job handling the e-mail story, and that's why it continues to loom over her.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

@TheRickWilson 10h10 hours ago

All the fapping on the national polls today. Who led in May?
2012: Romney
2008: McCain
2004: Tied
1992: Bush
1988: Dukakis +17!

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/734399756210974721

 

[GuyKazama]

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/734399756210974721

Neither McCain nor Romney led the average polls in May.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Made up scandals and smear attacks will always be a factor, but its up to the candidate to handle them in the right way to mitigate the damage.

Dukakis had to deal with Willie Horton. He failed to respond to it properly and it sank his candidacy.

Kerry had to deal with the SBVFT. He failed to respond to it properly and it sank his candidacy.

Obama had to deal with Rev Wright and birtherism, but he handled it in the right manner, weathered the storm, and ultimately it didn't hurt him.

From day 1 Clinton has done an awful job handling the e-mail story, and that's why it continues to loom over her.

Yeah. The only people who care about the emails are people who hated her LONG before the emails.

No one else gives a shit.

 

[Team Alucard]

Neither McCain nor Romney led the average polls in May.

Yeah. The only time Romney ever led Obama in the polls was in early October after he annihilated him in the first debate.

 

[MIMIC]

If the other party disliking you enough to make up scandals makes you a bad candidate.... well I guess Dems are always going to have bad candidates.

Bad candidate? No. Extremely unlikable candidate? Yes. That's why people are voting for her in spite of the extreme dislike.

She's the cough syrup of politics. If you hold your nose and swallow, things might get a little better later.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Clearly there has been some tightening of the polls lately. It remains to be seen whether that will hold or not. Anyway, posting a new topic for each of the most Trump-favorable polls gives a misleading impression of the race (honestly, I'm not much of a fan of topics on any individual poll).

 

[Socivol]

The average has her +1.6

That is not a commanding lead.



It is. People talk about Trump's unpopularity (57% unfavorable) but Hillary is right there with him (55% unfavorable).

The difference is that Trump has more or less stabilized and is even starting to improve. Hillary's public image keeps freefalling.

I guess we will see. I have a feeling that those that think the Democratic party will just fall inline might be overestimating the current political climate.

 

[giga]

The average has her +1.6

That is not a commanding lead.



It is. People talk about Trump's unpopularity (57% unfavorable) but Hillary is right there with him (55% unfavorable).

The difference is that Trump has more or less stabilized and is even starting to improve. Hillary's public image keeps freefalling.

Pray tell, what was Obama's average in November 2012?

 

[WonkyPanda]

What's interesting to me is that HRC supporters in September of '08 had a slightly worse support of BO than this current poll shows:

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1070a1AftertheConventions.pdf

Then there are former Clinton supporters. In this poll 72 percent of them are behind Obama for the nomination, 23 percent for McCain – much like the 70-20 percent division before the Democratic convention, at which Clinton expressed full support for her former rival. Just 50 percent of Clinton supporters say they’re “definitely” for Obama.

Under 40s is what is currently hurting Hillary in this poll, as well as statistical noise for this period of the cycle. I mean, we don't even have a Dem candidate yet.

 

[Team Alucard]

Pray tell, what was Obama's average in November 2012?

45% Unfavorable

Obama has always hovered at around 50/50 favorability wise.

He is a divisive figure. Clinton is just flat-out disliked.

 

[giga]

45% Unfavorable

Obama has always hovered at around 50/50 favorability wise.

He is a divisive figure. Clinton is just flat-out disliked.

I'm talking about his polling average compared to Romney.

 

[Havoc2049]

Stop throwing out "Trump can win Pennsylvania" as if that's a meaningful or plausible path to victory. PA is fool's gold for Republicans. Philadelphia will always outvote the state.

Clinton did herself no favors by going Ted Cruz-NY Values in Coal Country. Pennsylvania is in play.

 

[thepotatoman]

Have never understood this. Why is she awful? Very few are more qualified for the position than her.

Partly because she's had 30 years worth of attacks against her built up, some legitimate, many not.

Partly because she's too smart for her own good and can't focus on a single, digestible platform to rally behind. Instead she lists off a million tiny and sometimes complex ideas she believes should be easy to get passed, but none really impactful enough to excite anyone.

And partly because she occasionally makes completely boneheaded out of touch attacks or deflections that even the most naive can smell as political bullshit.

 

[mo60]

Clinton did herself no favors by going Ted Cruz-NY Values in Coal Country. Pennsylvania is in play.

I still expect the democrats to win Pennsylvania by 5+% points. I expect some parts of the states to vote way more for clinton than trump which will offset whatever trump gains in certain parts of that state. I don't think it's in play in this election. Ohio may be in play but like florida I expect the dems to win that state more than they did in the last election.Also, in this election I expect almost all the states the democrats currently hold to swing harder towards them(possibly even including some of the swing states they hold right now).

 

[titiklabingapat]

This seems like a good climate to launch a 3rd party on the left or right. They could actually win real electoral votes and even if they didn't win would sow seeds for a more diverse system.

This would just result in that third party either replacing the other party or going away again in the next few cycles. The electoral system we have ('First Past the Post) ensures a two party system will always be the natural state in the USA.

Here is a great video explaining it in basic terms: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo

 

[HariKari]

If the other party disliking you enough to make up scandals makes you a bad candidate.... well I guess Dems are always going to have bad candidates.

Is her not releasing the Wall St. transcript a made up scandal? Genuinely curious.

 

[Movement]

I'm sure it's been said, but polls this far out mean very little. Which states will Trump win? That's what matters.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Is her not releasing the Wall St. transcript a made up scandal? Genuinely curious.

Yes. It is quote possibly the most moronic scandal of them all since at least the others have some implication of the slightest possibility of being important.

These speeches were given by Hillary to CROWDS of people. If anything incriminating was contained within them it would have been revealed eons ago.



Hillary was 100% right not to release them. It was a stupid game where if she HAD released them then Bernie Bros would have simply demanded something else, and then something else.... She was right not to dance to their stupid tune.

 

[MIMIC]

Yes. It is quote possibly the most moronic scandal of them all since at least the others have some implication of the slightest possibility of being important.

These speeches were given by Hillary to CROWDS of people. If anything incriminating was contained within them it would have been revealed eons ago.



Hillary was 100% right not to release them. It was a stupid game where if she HAD released them then Bernie Bros would have simply demanded something else, and then something else.... She was right not to dance to their stupid tune.

Don't try and pin this on "Bernie Bros." She has been asked by the media to release her transcripts.

 

[thepotatoman]

I'm sure it's been said, but polls this far out mean very little. Which states will Trump win? That's what matters.

If he wins the national vote by 2 points, it's fairly likely he'll find some assortment of states to push him over 270. If he's losing the vote in florida but winning the national vote, he has to be picking a ton of votes up somewhere to make up for that gap, potentially the rust belt as is widely speculated.

But yeah, all that will be much clearer when we get closer and we get a billion polls both nationally and statewide.

 

[HariKari]

Yes. It is quote possibly the most moronic scandal of them all since at least the others have some implication of the slightest possibility of being important.

These speeches were given by Hillary to CROWDS of people. If anything incriminating was contained within them it would have been revealed eons ago.

Hillary was 100% right not to release them. It was a stupid game where if she HAD released them then Bernie Bros would have simply demanded something else, and then something else.... She was right not to dance to their stupid tune.

Money and its influence on politics is an important issue to a lot of voters, myself included.

Your argument doesn't make much sense. Her lack of transparency is part of what makes her unlikable. She let Bernie weaponize the transcript issue and use it against her. You can bet that it will be an issue in the general. So if there's nothing incriminating out there, why endure the attacks rather than simply and calmly rebut them with the transcripts? Instead, we get her wiggling around on TV with terrible sounding excuses. There's something there.

Now that Bernie isn't a threat, she should still release them. It's not a "Bernie Bro" thing. It's a decency thing.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

We go through this every GE. There will always be a new Karl Rove and Dick Morris.

Well, this year, the national vote is worth 70 electoral college votes.

 

[Socivol]

Money and its influence on politics is an important issue to a lot of voters, myself included.

Your argument doesn't make much sense. Her lack of transparency is part of what makes her unlikable. She let Bernie weaponize the transcript issue and use it against her. You can bet that it will be an issue in the general. So if there's nothing incriminating out there, why endure the attacks rather than simply and calmly rebut them with the transcripts? Instead, we get her wiggling around on TV with terrible sounding excuses. There's something there.

Now that Bernie isn't a threat, she should still release them. It's not a "Bernie Bro" thing. It's a decency thing.

Agreed this is why I would never vote for her. I don't trust her at all for reasons like this. Just like Donald Trump and his tax returns...if there is nothing to hide why hide it? I feel like Hillary will say anything to win. She would say she is a Satan worshiper if she knew that would help.her win an election.

 

[Macam]

Is her not releasing the Wall St. transcript a made up scandal? Genuinely curious.

It's not a scandal in any real meaningful sense. It's a topic upon which demands have been made, but that's about it. It's not like anyone's investigating anything here.

It's more like her Iraq war vote or her flip flop on TPP; it's a contentious action she took at one point, and you can form your opinion about it accordingly.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Just gonna keep watching the poll average and I won't start worrying until those start flipping.

RCP average has flipped.