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[hydragonwarrior]

Take down Marco, Trump. You've been leaving him alone for too long.

 

[KHarvey16]

Yeah, it says that there are other factors at play. Of which I agree.
I'm arguing that from a polling perspective, Trump has a good shot at the nomination. And historically, they are not a terrible indicator of who will win the primary.

There seems to be a reluctance to judge this race from the polls from some people. I don't get it.

Because the polls are flawed and ultimately not predictive. That Time article talks about so few examples and even then has a handful of exceptions. Those exceptions, and the reasons for them, are directly in play here with Trump.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Are there any recent polls about how he would do nationally?

He would lose...national polls are rather crap imo.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

[Grizzlyjin]

While many of you guys find this funny, most should find it absolutely fucking appalling. Why? Dude is absolutely destroying the rest of the the candidates and far and wide has the most support among ANY Republican candidate while spewing the disgusting bullshit he does every day.

You can find that hilarious and brush it off, but think about it for a second. There's a very large number of the American population that thinks the way he does and shares his racist and fascist views, on ethnic minorities, on immigrants, on Muslims, etc etc. That's not funny. That's sad, that's deplorable, and it's dangerous.

Considering how the Republican party has acted for years, it really isn't that shocking. They created their own worst enemy. Instead of modernizing after 2012, they doubled down on everything. The party was clearly divided and they did nothing to adjust to that. It isn't like this Trump thing came completely out of left field. This was a possibility since the Tea Party came about. We literally just had infighting because the the nominee for Speaker of the House wasn't conservative enough for the Freedom Caucus.

It's funny in some ways, sad in others. It just isn't that new. Being so outspoken about it publically is new, but Trump gets away with that because he isn't a politician. It's definitely needed, probably the wakeup call the GOP needs

 

[Principate]

Because the polls are flawed and ultimately not predictive. That Time article talks about so few examples and even then has a handful of exceptions. Those exceptions, and the reasons for them, are directly in play here with Trump.

Did we read the same article. It said it may not be indicative but history is on his side. Plus he's been the clear leader for a long time unlike many of the exceptions. Sounds like your being contratrian for the sake of it. Sure there's a reasonable chance he won't win, but let's not pretend the probabilities aren't on his side for now,

 

[Gallbaro]

Take down Marco, Trump. You've been leaving him alone for too long.

Talk about Rubio, you legitimize Rubio. Trump controls all the oxygen in the room so he is not going to give any of it away.

 

[Cromat]

He would lose...national polls are rather crap imo.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

FUCK that's way closer than I thought.

If Trump gets the nomination every sane person must go out and vote for Hillary or whoever is against him.

 

[Already Torn]

As awful as Trump is, I'm really just glad that Carson isn't a serious candidate anymore.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

FUCK that's way closer than I thought.

If Trump gets the nomination every sane person must go out and vote for Hillary or whoever is against him.

You cannot be serious. Trump has zero chance, national polls are shit when you have the electoral college. Trump has no path to victory. Really starting to think there is a great deal of individuals who do not really get how we elect the POTUS.

As awful as Trump is, I'm really just glad that Carson isn't a serious candidate anymore.

He never was. He was and is still the darling of the evangelical right.

 

[Gallbaro]

You cannot be serious. Trump has zero chance, national polls are shit when you have the electoral college. Trump has no path to victory. Really starting to think there is a great deal of individuals who do not really get how we elect the POTUS.



He never was. He was and is still the darling of the evangelical right.

Trump's stated policies in the GE will be left of Hillary.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Trump probably wouldn't win the general, it's true. He has an extremely slim chance, thanks to the electoral college map and demographics.

But the GOP won't change their strategy. Why would they? They control the senate, house, and most state governments thanks to their strategy.

What's scary is: as slim a change as the GOP has of taking the presidency, eventually odds would indicate they will. And when they do, they'll control... the senate, the house, and most state governments.

Dems can't lose the presidency and they can't afford to bleed more support during midterms. It's frustrating.

 

[Fenderputty]

Did we read the same article. It said it may not be indicative but history is on his side. Plus he's been the clear leader for a long time unlike many of the exceptions. Sounds like your being contratrian for the sake of it. Sure there's a reasonable chance he won't win, but let's not pretend the probabilities aren't on his side for now,

He's not being contrarian. I believe he's agreed with Nate that trump has no chance the entire time.

 

[lastplayed]

NeoTRUMP.com

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Trump's stated policies in the GE will be left of Hillary.

I'm sure that will just erase the megaton of statements he made in the primary. The stuff he said cannot be simply walked back in a general when he is on record doubling, tripling down.

 

[Cromat]

You cannot be serious. Trump has zero chance, national polls are shit when you have the electoral college. Trump has no path to victory. Really starting to think there is a great deal of individuals who do not really get how we elect the POTUS.

He almost certainly won't be president, but if the gap between the percentage of people who think this moronic, ignorant, hateful, narcissistic, talentless, reality TV hack should be president and those who disagree is only a few percentage points, then America has gone mad, and that's horrible even if he loses.

 

[fantomena]

I just want to see the GOP car crash into a river so it floats into the ocean.

 

[Gallbaro]

I'm sure that will just erase the megaton of statements he made in the primary. The stuff he said cannot be simply walked back in a general when he is on record doubling, tripling down.

I agree it is going to be a fantastic sell. He will deflect the racist statements, by going to something like universal healthcare, higher marginal taxes, or maybe even as left as minimum income.

He will need to sell something that big to distract.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

He almost certainly won't be president, but if the gap between the percentage of people who think this moronic, ignorant, hateful, narcissistic, talentless, reality TV hack should be president and those who disagree is only a few percentage points, then America has gone mad, and that's horrible even if he loses.

You aren't from here, so I get it. National polling doesn't matter, that isn't how we elect a president here. Electoral college is all that matters and Trump has zero chance of winning that. Zero.

 

[Vestal]

While many of you guys find this funny, most should find it absolutely fucking appalling. Why? Dude is absolutely destroying the rest of the the candidates and far and wide has the most support among ANY Republican candidate while spewing the disgusting bullshit he does every day.

You can find that hilarious and brush it off, but think about it for a second. There's a very large number of the American population that thinks the way he does and shares his racist and fascist views, on ethnic minorities, on immigrants, on Muslims, etc etc. That's not funny. That's sad, that's deplorable, and it's dangerous.

This is the only way this country will change. This country needs a 2 party system, but it can't have one with the way the Republican Party has been run. The current Republican Party needs to fall on its face, and Trump is our best hope for that to happen. From the ashes a new less rightwing nut party can emerge. Maybe once they crater to the fucking ground the Limbaughs, Hannitys, Becks, and Cruz of the world will lose their pull within the Republican movement and will probably become a 3rd party of sorts. Its the only fucking way.

 

[Mimosa97]

I've lived in Florida almost my whole life and while I knew prejudice was rampant in their ranks, I never thought the vile and hatred was this strong at such a wide scale. It's really terrifying to see such a large percentage of the populace harboring this shit.

You need to start reading conservative and far-right websites.

It's even worse than you think.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

This is the only way this country will change. This country needs a 2 party system, but it can't have one with the way the Republican Party has been run. The current Republican Party needs to fall on its face, and Trump is our best hope for that to happen. From the ashes a new less rightwing nut party can emerge. Maybe once they crater to the fucking ground the Limbaughs, Hannitys, Becks, and Cruz of the world will lose their pull within the Republican movement and will probably become a 3rd party of sorts. Its the only fucking way.

Lol, so what you are saying is it isn't going to happen.

Seriously though, the individuals you are listing are just tapping into the sentiments of their electorate. They wouldn't have an audience if people weren't lining up around the corner. Basically, I think you are overestimating the lunacy of pundits and underestimating the latent racism and xenophobia that exists in this country.

 

[mo60]

FUCK that's way closer than I thought.

If Donald "When did we beat Japan at anything?" Trump gets the nomination every sane person must go out and vote for Hillary or whoever is against him.

Trump will probably have a significantly higher popularity support than Hilary in certain parts of the US like in the states that usually go for the republicans heavily. So that is why his popular support is closer to hilary's on average in that poll tracker.Trump will still get crushed badly because the states that have a lot of electoral college votes will all go to Hilary. So she will get 3 to 4 times the electoral college than trump.

 

[theignoramus]

I was curious about this. His remarks many were considering offensive didn't bother me, and despite the fact that it's Trump (and therefore comes with a huge grain of salt), he'd said things I (along with many others) like to hear. This, on the other hand, goes against the constitution of the United States, one of those things the Tea Party folks supposedly love as long as it's convenient for them. You can't say the rules apply to one group of people and not the other, especially when you're dealing with the bill of rights. It's just ridiculous. Admittedly, tourists and potential immigrants aren't citizens, but this latest nonsense goes against the very principals the US was founded on, not that it means much anymore, apparently.

Mexicans labelled as criminals and rapists and neo-nazi pseudo facts getting a Trump endorsement didnt "bother you"?
Wow. I wish I had the benefit of such apathy.

 

[Suikoguy]

This is the only way this country will change. This country needs a 2 party system, but it can't have one with the way the Republican Party has been run. The current Republican Party needs to fall on its face, and Trump is our best hope for that to happen. From the ashes a new less rightwing nut party can emerge. Maybe once they crater to the fucking ground the Limbaughs, Hannitys, Becks, and Cruz of the world will lose their pull within the Republican movement and will probably become a 3rd party of sorts. Its the only fucking way.

There is a possible chain of events that could cause us to switch to 3 or 4 parties.
However the way the system is built, it would not likely last very long.

 

[Vestal]

Lol, so what you are saying is it isn't going to happen.

Seriously though, the individuals you are listing are just tapping into the sentiments of their electorate. They wouldn't have an audience if people weren't lining up around the corner. Basically, I think you are overestimating the lunacy of pundits and underestimating the latent racism and xenophobia that exists in this country.

It is the lunacy of these pundits that has given an outlet and a focus to the lunatics and racists out there. What's worse though is how they have been further legitimized and pandered by the political right, which in turn makes them look like a voice of reason to millions of uneducated, racist, bigoted Americans.

 

[Bellamin]

My concern for my state (Kansas) is that if Trump receives the Republican nod, a lot of young Republicans would rather not vote than have to decide between Trump and a Democrat. What happens when people don't vote? Republicans get elected.

 

[davepoobond]

My concern for my state (Kansas) is that if Trump receives the Republican nod, a lot of young Republicans would rather not vote than have to decide between Trump and a Democrat. What happens when people don't vote? Republicans get elected.

if republicans dont vote, it means the opposite...


Democrats gerrymander too, just not as effectively and wide-scale as Republicans have been able to

 

[Fenderputty]

My concern for my state (Kansas) is that if Trump receives the Republican nod, a lot of young Republicans would rather not vote than have to decide between Trump and a Democrat. What happens when people don't vote? Republicans get elected.

This makes no sense if it's young republicans staying home

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

My concern for my state (Kansas) is that if Trump receives the Republican nod, a lot of young Republicans would rather not vote than have to decide between Trump and a Democrat. What happens when people don't vote? Republicans get elected.

Well! Lucky for you, you live in a state that doesn't matter. Kansas hasn't gone blue since 1964. The Republican nominee was going to get your states electoral college votes anyways.

 

[numble]

That's a completely tautological justification. The polls are good because the polls are good.

That is not tautological at all. Bandwagoning is not tautological.

 

[danm999]

I also wouldn't worry because it's Kansas which isn't a swing state.

In fact if Kansas is remotely up in the air at all during the next election it means Republicans are on the path to electoral wipeout.

 

[Crocodile]

I'm more interested in poll numbers after the next debate and when the fallout from his "Ban all the Muslims" proposal is absorbed by the populace. If he's still killing it after that...........ugh

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Double bonus huffpo pollsters:

holy shit.

ggwp.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

I'm more interested in poll numbers after the next debate and when the fallout from his "Ban all the Muslims" proposal is absorbed by the populace. If he's still killing it after that...........ugh

Of course he will still be killing it. His 'constituents' are made up by the xenophobic horde who are anti-PC, anti-modernity, I want my country back yokels. If we have learned anything it is that the more outrageous he becomes the better he does.

 

[RustyNails]

I agree that poll are meaningless, it was meaningless for Ron Paul for example. But Trump's campaign doesn't seems like a summer love story before the primaries. Trump has been gaining support since the start with his infamous wall speech. He did everything in the book that would kill another candidate already, he lost all the debates, he barely advertise his own campaign (the media does it for free for him though), he speaks to people's most basic fears, when a rival gets a moment to shine thanks to a rise in polls (Like Cruz in Iowa, yesterday, not that in the great scheme Iowa matters since if I remember right they have always pick losers in the primaries) Trump is quick to say something outrageous on twitter and get all the spotlight to himself. Also while polls may not reflect reality with 100% accuracy (and not even withing the margin of errors they use), I don't see how someone could completely throw away all the poll data so far that clearly shows a primary runner when the previous polls on previous elections didn't had a clear front runner 2 months before the primary started. I mean sure there can be a deviation in the polls and reality but I doubt things will change as much as you expect them to change.

This. Although it needs to be pointed out that Hillary was still beating Obama by double digits in 2007 December. However, few points to note:

*Hillary's iraq war vote was her albatross and Obama played it like a fiddle.
*Obama campaign had the best democratic political machine ever built. Ground game is legendary.
*Absolutely gifted speaker and a great, likable personality.
*Focused message of change.

If we use the same measurement for today's GOP contenders, there is really no way to draw any conclusion. None of the non-Trump candidates are even close to Obama Campaign 2008 in any way, shape or form. By long mile. So I'm really skeptical to see the gnome underpants theory play out favorably for Rubio or any establishment pick. It's already assumed that none of Trump's comments are going to hurt him politically. Nate's blindspot is assuming the conditions for nominating a GOP candidate remain static (or carry little weight). So he's supplanting the Trump candidacy in a 2012 or 2008 GOP primary. In my opinion, the conditions in the GOP primary electorate are so radically out of step with any past election that no predictive model can work.

 

[HideyoshiJP]

Mexicans labelled as criminals and rapists and neo-nazi pseudo facts getting a Trump endorsement didnt "bother you"?
Wow. I wish I had the benefit of such apathy.

[some] Mexicans [who specifically are entering the country illegally], but let's just lop off more than half of a statement and pretend it means exactly the same thing, as is the course for meaningless politics. I don't know what you're referring to with the "neo-nazi pseudo facts," either, but I will admit that I've tuned out a certain amount of the news cycle in the primaries, and if I'd missed something I'll freely admit to that.

 

[harmonize]

I'm more interested in poll numbers after the next debate and when the fallout from his "Ban all the Muslims" proposal is absorbed by the populace. If he's still killing it after that...........ugh

relevant onion article

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

[some] Mexicans [who specifically are entering the country illegally], but let's just lop off more than half of a statement and pretend it means exactly the same thing, as is the course for meaningless politics. I don't know what you're referring to with the "neo-nazi pseudo facts," either, but I will admit that I've tuned out a certain amount of the news cycle in the primaries, and if I'd missed something I'll freely admit to that.

What has he said that you like to hear? I think that is a better question. The reason I ask is not to trap you; I just think that if you truly like what he has to say you can find better solutions in more mainstream candidates.

 

[Jack Remington]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/08/polit...est-disqualified-president-muslims/index.html

We know the GOP reflexively opposes anything Obama suggests (I've argued that he should come out strongly in favor of oral hygiene and using deodorant).

Obama arguing that Trump has disqualified himself from the presidency will probably lead to a landslide for Trump.

 

[Hexa]

Can't Stump the Trump

 

[weekev]

Can we start calling his supporters Trumpets?

 

[Hexa]

Can we start calling his supporters Trumpets?

The proper term, as coined by Palin, is Trumpeteers.

 

[weekev]

The proper term, as coined by Palin, is Trumpeteers.

Trumpeteers sounds less derisive than Trumpets. It sounds like someone rallying support for their hero.

Trumpets sounds like something you dont wanna be. "seriously you hate all Muslims? Aw shit you're a fucking Trumpet"

 

[adj_noun]

If we have learned anything it is that the more outrageous he becomes the better he does.

Yeah, I learned a few months ago the folly of trying to predict which Trumpism would sink him.

Now I'm at the point where I don't think it really matter what he says; as long as it's delivered with appropriate levels of bluster and defiance at X, he's good with his base.

 

[HideyoshiJP]

What has he said that you like to hear? I think that is a better question. The reason I ask is not to trap you; I just think that if you truly like what he has to say you can find better solutions in more mainstream candidates.

He has come out against the H-1B visa abuse. This is something I also appreciate in Bernie Sanders. Now, I take this with a grain of salt, as his company has used them before in trivial positions that don't require high-end talent necessitating a global search. He may not have personally sought that out, but the fact remains.
While there are no specifics, and once again, he's guilty of it, he has spoken against keeping US-headquartered mutli-national profits off-shore for tax-dodge purposes. Once again, grain of salt - he's talked about both reducing and eliminating. I would support some reduction, but only if it comes with teeth for those offshoring profits.
Since Trump is not a politician, he's admittedly flip-flopped on a lot of issues, much like any normal person.That's not entirely a good thing though, especially when someone's seeking the highest office of the country. However, I can say there are things I'm not going to get that upset about, especially when there's something I majorly dislike about every single candidate of every party.
Again, Trump says stuff people like. Some I agree with, and these are things others aren't addressing. He also says a lot of shit, and I don't entirely trust him based on the fact that he does the very things he's taking a stand against. It's like a guy saying "Man, I hate it when people take all the free samples," and a lot of people agree, but then he follows up with "I just wish there was some leftover after I took a bunch." And yet, hardly anybody else cares about the free samples or outright declares they support the rights of enterprising individuals to take all those samples and profit from them. I hope that explains it in more day-to-day terms.
At the end of the day, I really don't like any of these candidates fully. I accept that they will all say things I like and things I hate, and that I have to evaluate them as a whole to figure out who to vote for. I'm not a party member, nor voter, though, so there's not a lot I can do outside of keeping discussion alive until the final candidates are chosen.

 

[BoboBrazil]

We should all vote for him. The debates with Hilary will be glorious.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

He has come out against the H-1B visa abuse. This is something I also appreciate in Bernie Sanders. Now, I take this with a grain of salt, as his company has used them before in trivial positions that don't require high-end talent necessitating a global search. He may not have personally sought that out, but the fact remains.
While there are no specifics, and once again, he's guilty of it, he has spoken against keeping US-headquartered mutli-national profits off-shore for tax-dodge purposes. Once again, grain of salt - he's talked about both reducing and eliminating. I would support some reduction, but only if it comes with teeth for those offshoring profits.
Since Trump is not a politician, he's admittedly flip-flopped on a lot of issues, much like any normal person.That's not entirely a good thing though, especially when someone's seeking the highest office of the country. However, I can say there are things I'm not going to get that upset about, especially when there's something I majorly dislike about every single candidate of every party.
Again, Trump says stuff people like. Some I agree with, and these are things others aren't addressing. He also says a lot of shit, and I don't entirely trust him based on the fact that he does the very things he's taking a stand against. It's like a guy saying "Man, I hate it when people take all the free samples," and a lot of people agree, but then he follows up with "I just wish there was some leftover after I took a bunch." And yet, hardly anybody else cares about the free samples or outright declares they support the rights of enterprising individuals to take all those samples and profit from them. I hope that explains it in more day-to-day terms.
At the end of the day, I really don't like any of these candidates fully. I accept that they will all say things I like and things I hate, and that I have to evaluate them as a whole to figure out who to vote for. I'm not a party member, nor voter, though, so there's not a lot I can do outside of keeping discussion alive until the final candidates are chosen.

No offense, you just typed a word salad and mentioned one issue. H1B visas. I really would like to have a honest discussion with you but it is really hard when it is so cloaked.

Specifically, issue by issue; what is it about Trump that you support. We have already hit H1B.

 

[krackerjack]

Anybody see this?

 

[theignoramus]

[some] Mexicans [who specifically are entering the country illegally], but let's just lop off more than half of a statement and pretend it means exactly the same thing, as is the course for meaningless politics. I don't know what you're referring to with the "neo-nazi pseudo facts," either, but I will admit that I've tuned out a certain amount of the news cycle in the primaries, and if I'd missed something I'll freely admit to that.

Trump (or his staffer...doesnt matter he tried to defend it on the OReilly show) retweeted false crime data (originating from a British neo-nazi twitter account) about black on white murder rates. Not only was the data false, the bureau supposedly responsible for the data was a fabrication.
It was a fucking disgusting and negligent race baiting manuevre at best and malicious propaganda at worst.

 

[Hilbert]

I am a Mexican American and I am loving this Trump fiasco.

Since GW people have been talking about how the GOP's primaries are pandering more and more to the right and it gets significantly harder to walk it back during the general election. And at some point, since only the crazies pay attention to the primaries, winning the primary means the general is unwinnable.

And you know what? We made it. It is a wonderful thing to be watching, and I am absolutely loving it.