Has anything changed for us to think XSX isn't 12TF other than a belief that it can't be better than PS5? It seems like 2 days ago 12TF was just about confirmed
It's exactly nothing more than a belief that XSX cant be better than PS5. There are many bright people here on neogaf, but it also looks like certain individuals dont even think before they post something. For example thread about Nv claims. 2080 max-q is 6.4TF GPU, so how on earth someone could believe PS5 can be slower than that? This GCN and Navi TFLOPS comparison is also absurd if you really think about it.
The thing is people cant do the math when it comes to architecture gains, because architecture gains will not get you one number but different numbers within certain performance range. Digital Foundry polaris vs navi comparison shows gains between 25-32%, so what number people want to choose? What's also interesting Digital Foundy has proven 5700XT is not exactly 2x faster than RX580 as some people here think. 5700XT was 2x times faster only in certain scenarios, however most of the time RX5700 was around 80-90% faster, therefore 10TF Navi (not to mention 9TF as some people say) cant provide 2x xbox x results.
RDNA2 GPU's arnt even out yet, so people cant even measure anything right now. Even if you consider Phil was talking about first gen Navi performance gains assuming one number 25%, then you will get TWO different numbers because standard xbox one was using already 25% weaker architecture than xbox x (around 50% weaker in totall compared to navi architecture), so results between these two consoles dont scale the same way. You need around 6-7TF navi to match game performance of 8x xbox one consoles (that's how weak tahiti GCN was), but you need more than 10TF Navi to match 2x xbox x results in every game. So if someone belive Phil was talking about gaming performance in regards to GCN vs Navi then conclusion should be XSX can be 6-7TF RDNA1, but also 10-11TF RDNA1.
Phil Spencer would suggest two different performance levels in regards to one GPU (XSX)? That's absurd and yet people still arnt sure if Phil was talking about TFLOPS metric or game performance alone.
Only TFLOPS metric can explain what Phil has said, because one number (12TF) fits perfectly. 12TF is exactly 2x more than 6TF, and exactly over 8x times 1.4TF xbox one.
So yes, based on what Phil Spencer has said people can be 100% sure he was referring to TFLOPS and conclude MS is aiming at 12TF. If however XSX will end up at 9TF then people will have every reason to call Phil Spencer a liar.