Underperforming is not choking.
I'll post it again...
I'll post it again...
Peyton Manning is a choker, because he is only 9-11 in the playoffs and has gone one-and-done a record eight times. He has the most home-playoff losses ever with the fifth and latest exit coming in Denver.
If only things were that simple.
There are many people naïve enough to buy every word of that. Manning did not win soon enough in his career to change the narrative. He was in his second act by the time he won a playoff game, and the climax apparently came in 2006 when he won his one Super Bowl ring.
Despite the fact that since Super Bowl XLI Manning has done nothing but put his team ahead late, with a good stat line in every playoff game, a lot of people are unsatisfied, because they continue to hold Manning to the most ridiculous of standards of which no other player is held.
But even when the evidence all points to Manning being much better than his playoff record suggests, it’s that record that continues to haunt him, and what brands him.
Frankly, it’s nothing but a load of crap. When the caliber of quarterback does not match up with the playoff record or number of championships, then that poses a problem. Rather than rationally analyze the situation, the easy way out is to keep blaming the quarterback as the problem. They are the most important player, so the failures must be on them.
But that would ignore the various playoff records he holds, leading the largest comeback in championship game history, or the fact that he is a Super Bowl MVP. From playoff drive stats we know he has been very successful despite being stuck with terrible field position, which is out of his control.
Manning has an 88.4 passer rating on 761 pass attempts in the playoffs, which is 11th best all-time (half the players ahead of him do not even have 300 attempts). That sits right between three-time Super Bowl winners Tom Brady (89.1) and Troy Aikman (88.3).
Manning’s numbers are not positively gained through garbage time either, as his five playoff losses at home have been by a combined 14 points, which is the smallest margin ever (min. two losses).
It is all about the 11 losses, even though the key is he makes the playoffs almost every season of his career. You don’t hurt your playoff record if you fail to qualify. Ask Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees or his brother Eli this year.
Every playoff game has its own story, and to just sum things up with 9-11 would be so wrong regardless of the player. Since the eight quick exits are the latest figure, we are going to specifically look back at all eight times Manning went one-and-done in the playoffs, and the real reasons his teams lost.
It is hardly the full Manning playoff picture, as we are not focusing on the nine wins, his infamous losses in New England (2003-04), or Super Bowl XLIV. These games are also deserving of their own story. Truthfully, Manning’s playoff career deserves a book-sized account some day. It really is that unique of a tale that a quarterback this good could be 9-11 through 20 playoff starts.
But a fact-based trip down memory lane for 73 percent of the losses is a start.
1999 AFC Divisional: Indianapolis Colts (13-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (13-3)
Result: Tennessee (19-16)
Manning’s first playoff game foreshadowed the future as the Colts could never catch a break against the Titans, who were coming off their Music City Miracle win and had the best record ever for a Wild Card team (13-3).
The Colts took an early 3-0 lead, and made it 6-3 in the second quarter, but lost starting receiver E.G. Green after he injured himself on an impressive 33-yard reception. Rushing champion (and rookie) Edgerrin James was held to 56 yards on 20 carries, and dropped several passes.
Leading 9-6 in the third quarter, the game changed in favor of the Titans when Eddie George ripped off a 68-yard touchdown run. Teams who get a 50+ yard touchdown run in the playoffs are 26-4 (.867), as it usually is a sign of rushing dominance, which George had with 162 yards in the game. Tennessee never relinquished the lead.
After James was stuffed for no gain on 3rd-and-1 again, Indianapolis had a play set up for 4th-and-1, but Adam Meadows was penalized for a false start, resulting in a punt. After Tennessee took a 16-9 lead in the fourth quarter, Manning’s 3rd-and-10 pass to Jerome Pathon was dropped.
When Tennessee punted, Terrence Wilkins returned it 87 yards to the TEN 3, but replay showed he stepped out back at the IND 34, which is where the ball was correctly re-spotted. Marvin Harrison, who had a rough day (this would be a big problem moving forward in the playoffs), was flagged for a false start, and a holding penalty set the offense back 10 more yards after Manning had a completion that would have set up 3rd-and-1.
Instead, it was 3rd-and-22, and Manning threw a good pass despite being pressured. But Harrison dropped the ball about 30 yards down the field, and the Colts had to punt.
“Oh my goodness this is just not the Colts’ day. When Marvin Harrison drops one like that, you can forget it,” said Bob Lamey, Colts’ play-by-play announcer.
Tennessee got the ball on a short field and added a field goal for a 19-9 lead. Down to just 4:19 left, the Colts went four and out after Manning’s pass on 4th-and-4 went through the hands of James down the right sideline.
The Colts dropped seven passes in the game, including three in the fourth quarter on third or fourth down that would have went for a first down. They got the ball back one more time, thanks to a George fumble, and drove 61 yards for a touchdown (Manning ran it in from 15 yards out).
But Tennessee recovered the onside kick to put this one away, 19-16.
2000 AFC Wild Card: Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Result: Miami (23-17 OT)
Coach Jim Mora’s last chance for a playoff win (he went 0-6) may have been his best shot. Teams leading by exactly 14 points at halftime are 37-3 (.925) in playoff history, but here is the first loss. The Colts led 14-0 in Miami at halftime, but the lead should have been even bigger:
Instead of kicking a 45-yard field goal, the Colts tried a fake that lost six yards on fourth down. There’s three points.
On 3rd-and-goal at the MIA 8, Manning had Pathon wide open for a touchdown, a game announcer even called touchdown, but Pathon dropped it. There’s four more points.
After Miami scored a touchdown in the third quarter, Harrison dropped a pass on 3rd-and-2 at midfield.
Manning had a 38-yard pass to Harrison in the fourth quarter, but it was wiped out with Harrison’s offensive pass interference.
Mike Vanderjagt kicked a 50-yard field goal, giving the Colts a 17-10 lead with 4:55 to play. But when the defense had to stop Jay Fiedler from driving Miami 80 yards, it failed. Fiedler threw a 9-yard touchdown on third down to tie the game with 0:34 to play.
Manning handed off to James for a 3-yard gain, and let the clock expire for overtime. Miami punted, and Manning came out with a 30-yard pass to Harrison. On a 3rd-and-12 at the MIA 42, Manning threw to Harrison for 11 yards, but the Dolphins were offsides. Rather than replay the down with a 3rd-and-7 attempt, Vanderjagt had convinced Mora he could make the kick, so they sent out the kicking team.
Vanderjagt’s 49-yard attempt, after previously making from 50, was embarrassingly wide right. This was before the days of high-definition television, but here’s a marker for where the ball landed. You could tell immediately it was wide right.
Manning never touched the ball again. The Dolphins went 61 yards for the game-winning touchdown, with Lamar Smith taking it 17 yards to the end zone. Smith finished with 40 carries (playoff record) for 209 yards, which are the second most yards in playoff history.
2002 AFC Wild Card: Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at New York Jets (9-7)
Result: NY Jets (41-0)
Now it was Tony Dungy’s turn, and the Colts were never less prepared for a playoff game than this trip to New York.
The Colts won one more game in the regular season, but the Jets won the AFC East and finished 8-3 after the bye week, leading the league in scoring differential (+110) in that span. The move to third-year quarterback Chad Pennington was a great success.
This is the easiest way to sum this game up. Trailing 7-0 in the first quarter, Manning converted a few third downs and set up Vanderjagt for a 41-yard field goal. The next time Manning took the field, it was 17-0 Jets with 9:36 left in the second quarter.
Yep. The win was a pipe dream already. Vanderjagt was wide left on the kick, the Jets made their 41-yard field goal, Troy Walters fumbled the kickoff return, and the Jets scored a touchdown. At that point Manning was 4/9 for 42 yards, three dropped passes, and some soft receiver play to say the least.
Manning was pressured on third down on the next drive, and on the opportunity after that, James lost three yards on a 3rd-and-1 carry. James finished with 14 yards on nine carries. The Jets added another touchdown, and with the Colts having little time to do anything, it was 24-0 at halftime. A long kick return to start the half made it 27-0, and at this point the Colts just went through the motions in a lifeless performance.
Down 34-0 in the fourth quarter, Manning forced a pass for his first career postseason interception. It came on his 102nd postseason pass, which ties Roger Staubach for the second most pass attempts without an interception to begin a playoff career. Jeff Hostetler still holds the record with 115 attempts.
That pick did not matter, and neither did the next one just inside the red zone with 3:16 to play. That was down 41-0, which would be the final score in an embarrassing loss for the team.
Manning was 14/31 for a career-playoff low of 137 yards, but the receivers struggled again with seven drops. This was just never a game after that early implosion, and it falls on Dungy, who knew it.
This is Dungy quoted from The Indianapolis Star:
"I don't think any of us played as well as we can play, for whatever reason," said Dungy. "I have to take the blame for that. We weren't ready. We didn't get the job done and we didn't play the type of football we needed to play in this kind of environment. I don't think there's a man in there who's satisfied with his performance, including myself and the rest of the coaches."
2005 AFC Divisional: Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
Result: Pittsburgh (21-18)
The 2005 Colts were the first 21st-century team to really chase the perfect season. After starting 13-0, they fell in a heartbreaker to San Diego, who gave the Steelers a good blueprint for success. Tony Dungy’s son committed suicide, ending the regular season on a solemn note as the Colts rested Manning and key players for much of the last two games.
Over a month after their last strong performance, the Colts hosted the No. 6 seed from Pittsburgh. The game would become the ultimate case of rust vs. momentum, as the Steelers won five straight games just to get to this point. They came out strong with Ben Roethlisberger passing for 147 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter alone to lead 14-0.
The Colts became known for crazy comebacks under Manning, but the 2005 team was more of your dominant, front-runner type. They rarely trailed all season.
Manning started the game missing his first four passes, as the offense was all out of sorts. They rebounded in the second quarter, driving 97 yards to the PIT 1. But a false start on Tarik Glenn on third down moved things back, and James was stopped on a run at the PIT 2.
A third-quarter sack of Manning nearly caused a safety, and the Steelers used the short field to go up 21-3 with 1:26 left, stunning the crowd. Manning waved off the punt team on a 4th-and-2, and converted to Brandon Stokley for the first down. That would set the stage for one of the wildest fourth quarters in NFL history.
Dallas Clark had a big run after the catch for a 50-yard touchdown to make it 21-10. An underrated aspect of the game was Pittsburgh’s answer: 12 plays, 32 yards. It did not lead to points, but it drained 8:06 off the clock as Bill Cowher had his team convert twice on 4th-and-1 runs.
With 5:33 left Manning was ruled to throw an interception to Troy Polamalu, but a lengthy review came back and said incomplete. The NFL admitted to the error after the fact. Manning capped the drive off with big passes to Reggie Wayne, including the two-point conversion after a 5-yard penalty that made it 21-18.
Getting the ball back, Manning was sacked twice, turning the ball over on downs. Manning was sacked a career-high five times in the game. His post-game comments about “protection issues” did not go over well.
Thinking the game was over, Jerome Bettis fumbled, and Nick Harper recovered the ball and started to run down the field. Harper was stabbed by his wife the previous night, adding to the lore of this one. Rather than go down the sideline he stuck to the middle of the field, where Roethlisberger was able to make the season-saving tackle.
After getting one of the biggest gifts ever, Manning hit two passes for 30 yards. Going for the win he threw to Wayne in the end zone, but rookie Bryant McFadden made the play of his career to prevent the touchdown.
Two plays later Vanderjagt came out to attempt the 46-yard field goal that would have forced overtime and perhaps lead to the biggest fourth-quarter comeback win in playoff history. But the results were strikingly similar to the Miami playoff loss.
We have seen numerous chokes by kickers in these spots in the playoffs, including some bigger moments like Scott Norwood in the Super Bowl or Billy Cundiff last year. Those are the only two to happen in a championship game. Nate Kaeding missed in two different games for San Diego, but for different quarterbacks.
Manning is the only quarterback to ever have two playoff losses where his last play was to set up a clutch field goal that was missed.
It was the first time a No. 6 seed beat a No. 1 seed, but since this game the No. 6 seed is actually 5-1 in those matchups. This was Manning’s toughest career loss to date just because of the high expectations the Colts had that season.
