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NFL 2013 Week 13 |OT| Guns of the Patriots

D

Doomsayer

Member
offtopic said:
Really? He usually passes the eye test for me and I'm pretty harsh on QBs (for example, Smith NEVER passed the eye test even when he had "good" games). What I see is very little time to throw to receivers that aren't open. He has been very accurate even when not completing passes because, you know, it is hard to complete even perfectly thrown passes to well covered receivers.

He is getting criticized even for very well thrown passes. I think one attempt in the first series last night he threw to Vernon Davis drifting across the middle about 15yds downfield. The commentator (Gruden?) immediately said the ball was overthrown and "sailed" out of reach. However, they showed a replay a few seconds later that clearly showed that Davis was well covered (as were all the other receivers) and the ball was put about helmet high just outside his shoulder and that he got both hands on it but just didn't catch it. In fact, it was the only place the ball could have been put where the cover guy couldn't have put a hand on it. In short, a very good throw that should have been caught.
Click to expand...

Kap has happy feet and his mechanics break down as soon as there is a hint of pressure. I love Kap and I think he will continue to develop into a franchise quarterback but he is just not there right now.

He is having trouble reading defenses, and he NEVER checks down the ball even when they are wide open. He will learn as he matures, but he really isn't where we need him to be to win a Super Bowl.
cdyhybrid said:
The best way to evaluate is the same as it's always been: watch the film. There are too many moving parts on the field to distill someone's performance down to a single stat.
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Exactly. I reiterate: Stats mean dick.
 
O

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
cdyhybrid said:
It doesn't matter if he's "the problem". What matters is that they aren't getting enough out of the passing game/the QB position. Using some arcane formula to prop him up doesn't change that.
Click to expand...

They definitely aren't getting enough from their passing game but I put most of that on the play calling and offensive philosophy. Second on the list and related closely to the first item is that they don't have receivers who can get open. Third on the list is the overrated offensive line that doesn't give him much time to throw. After that we can start talking about quarterback problems because he has actually been pretty good with what he has had to deal with.

Running consistently with a mediocre-poor running game and 3 TEs, 1 WR and 2 backs just means that the opponent will laugh at your potential passing game and stack the line with a 4-4 or 3-5 and run with just 3DBs and you still have no chance of getting open. That said, they did use more multi-receiver sets last night and got play calls in much faster which definitely helped the passing game.
 
Blackace

Blackace

if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
Doomsayer said:
Kap has happy feet and his mechanics break down as soon as there is a hint of pressure. I love Kap and I think he will continue to develop into a franchise quarterback but he is just not there right now.

He is having trouble reading defenses, and he NEVER checks down the ball even when they are wide open. He will learn as he matures, but he really isn't where we need him to be to win a Super Bowl.


Exactly. I reiterate: Stats mean dick.
Click to expand...

Kap is Rick Mier?
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
squicken said:
I like QBR more than any other QB metric, but it is still flawed. It always about the eyeball test. I was chatting with ESPN's head stats dude on Twitter about QBR. They will be incorporating pressure into the formula next year. I have some issues with anything that is too reliant on all the EPA and WPA stuff, which QBR and FO both have. At least FO filter out tipped passes, which QBR doesn't
Click to expand...

What I don't like about QBR or what PFF does is that I have no idea what the hell it's supposed to incorporate aside from direct comparisons to itself.

Ben Roethlisberger has a 90.2 QBR. Is that good? I guess it is compared to Drew Brees 97.4 QBR.

It's too complex just for the sake of it. Same with PFF - Some guy gets a rating of +7.1. What the hell does that mean? It doesn't help that they keep their algorithm secret to push traffic to their site.

I also dislike PFF because it paints a bad picture of guys that performed well. Last week David Decastro got an overall minus 3 point something rating. He was across from Suh, and while he did give up pressures he kept Suh off the stat sheet. Bricking the guy in front of you gets a negative rating?
 
O

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
cdyhybrid said:
The best way to evaluate is the same as it's always been: watch the film. There are too many moving parts on the field to distill someone's performance down to a single stat.
Click to expand...

I agree. But if you go into a film session looking for a problem you think you've identified then you will almost certainly see the said problem. I've been watching their offense really carefully the last few weeks and I just don't see anyone open and very little time to throw. Throws are typically very accurate but targets aren't open enough to make the catch (unless it is Boldin).
 
C

cdyhybrid

Member
offtopic said:
I agree. But if you go into a film session looking for a problem you think you've identified then you will almost certainly see the said problem. I've been watching their offense really carefully the last few weeks and I just don't see anyone open and very little time to throw. Throws are typically very accurate but targets aren't open enough to make the catch (unless it is Boldin).
Click to expand...

He could use more help, sure, but he's still got better players around him than most of the league does, even if you account for age and overratedness.
 
O

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
squicken said:
I like QBR more than any other QB metric, but it is still flawed. It always about the eyeball test. I was chatting with ESPN's head stats dude on Twitter about QBR. They will be incorporating pressure into the formula next year. I have some issues with anything that is too reliant on all the EPA and WPA stuff, which QBR and FO both have. At least FO filter out tipped passes, which QBR doesn't
Click to expand...

Passes tipped at the line of scrimmage by linemen not applying pressure are the QBs fault and shouldn't be filtered out (hello Alex Smith). Wide receivers failing to make catches they should make and the ball getting tipped into the air should certainly be filtered out. Also, crap like interceptions that occur when the only chance of winning is to take extremely high risk throws should be taken out.
 
M

MechDX

Member
jBgVhbt.jpg


Black Friday at Walmart
 
O

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
Doomsayer said:
Kap has happy feet and his mechanics break down as soon as there is a hint of pressure. I love Kap and I think he will continue to develop into a franchise quarterback but he is just not there right now.

He is having trouble reading defenses, and he NEVER checks down the ball even when they are wide open. He will learn as he matures, but he really isn't where we need him to be to win a Super Bowl.


Exactly. I reiterate: Stats mean dick.
Click to expand...

He frequently checks down...just not if you are comparing him to Captain Checkdown that used to QB in SF. He has to read the defense on every play and make like 5 adjustments at the line of scrimmage (which is a ridiculous way to call an offense and a coaching issue to me). If your receivers aren't open and you have no time I'm not sure what good reading the defense post-snap is going to do for you.

Again, the QB "problem" in SF is way down the list of offensive problems they have right now. Running game? Anyone seen one? Nope.
 
O

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
cdyhybrid said:
He could use more help, sure, but he's still got better players around him than most of the league does, even if you account for age and overratedness.
Click to expand...

He has good but overrated players around him. That isn't the problem so much as the play-calling which is just a complete mess right now. I do like the more frequent use of multi-WR sets and faster plays I saw last night.
 
S

squicken

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
What I don't like about QBR or what PFF does is that I have no idea what the hell it's supposed to incoproate aside from direct comparisons to itself.
Click to expand...

PFF is more like a scouts grade. I don't really pay much attention to it, though it isn't worthless. QBR is on a 100 scale where 50 is average. Lots of QBs having great QBR seasons this year, so I am like you where I think it has some flaws that gunk up a good idea.

I like PFF b/c they have stats other sites don't keep, namely Average Depth of Target, which is annoyingly only in their Fantasy package
 
C

cdyhybrid

Member
offtopic said:
He has good but overrated players around him. That isn't the problem so much as the play-calling which is just a complete mess right now. I do like the more frequent use of multi-WR sets and faster plays I saw last night.
Click to expand...

I guess my main point of contention is what's the difference between a "good" QB playing in a shitty system and a "bad" QB playing in a good system? They probably both result in the same thing: inconsistency and mediocre production. If your QB doesn't fit your system (and vice versa) he's a bad QB (for that system).
 
D

Dragon

Banned
offtopic said:
So how exactly are talking heads concluding that Kaepernick has been bad this year? For QBs with more than 300 attempts he is 5th in total QBR this year:

1. Manning
2. Rivers
3. Brees
4. Rodgers
5. Kaepernick
6. Ryan
7. Wilson
8. Luck
9. Stafford
10. Brady

tQBR seems like the best stat to use based on what I've read.
Click to expand...

Seems like a stat someone would use to support their argument.
 
S

Spinluck

Member
Irsay is so dumb. The Colts are a bad team in disguise.

I would trade Griff Whalen and Trent Truck for Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald.
 
S

squicken

Member
offtopic said:
Passes tipped at the line of scrimmage by linemen not applying pressure are the QBs fault and shouldn't be filtered out (hello Alex Smith). Wide receivers failing to make catches they should make and the ball getting tipped into the air should certainly be filtered out. Also, crap like interceptions that occur when the only chance of winning is to take extremely high risk throws should be taken out.
Click to expand...

Agree with that mostly, but lots of throws are timing throws dependent on cut blocks. It's one of those things that needs context. There's also tons of throws that should be intercepted that aren't. Luck had like 15 last year. QBR doesn't account for dropped INTs
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
The narrative on the Colts is mindblowing.

Do next to nothing besides draft a can't miss franchise QB - masterful reload. I couldn't believe what I was hearing during Colts Broncos.
 
S

Spinluck

Member
Konka said:
Reggie Wayne was the soul of the Colts....and my fantasy team.
Click to expand...

Reggie cannot account for shit defense or Special Teams.

The offense was on the brink of this collapse anyway, with or without Wayne. Our running game was suspect, and our O-line is shit.

I can only conclude that the reason we suck even more without him, is because we are now tanking for a 2nd round WR.
 
O

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
squicken said:
Agree with that mostly, but lots of throws are timing throws dependent on cut blocks. It's one of those things that needs context. There's also tons of throws that should be intercepted that aren't. Luck had like 15 last year. QBR doesn't account for dropped INTs
Click to expand...

Well, yes, if the cut-block fails that is bad but the QB should be able to figure out if there is a standing defensive lineman in the way. "Should be intercepted balls" are tricky because defensive players aren't selected for their ability to catch. Luck had to make a ton of incredibly difficult throws last year to give his team any chance of winning at all. Eyeball test had him way ahead of RG3 in my book (who had a dominant run game).
 
N

Narag

Member
SpinDasher said:
Reggie cannot account for shit defense or Special Teams.

The offense was on the brink of this collapse anyway, with or without Wayne. Our running game was suspect, and our O-line is shit.

I can only conclude that the reason we suck even more without him, is because we are now tanking for a 2nd round WR.
Click to expand...

I still feel DHB could just be left uncovered my most teams and still drop the ball the majority of the time.
 
C

cdyhybrid

Member
Hitokage said:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/11...ys-scheme-2013-eagles-49ers-seahawks-panthers

Another good read from Danny Kelly.
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The read option isn't taking over the NFL -- remember how I told you that its occurrence had tripled? It went from 1.3 percent of all offensive plays from scrimmage to roughly 3.7 percent, per ESPN Stats & Info. Some teams use it more frequently. Philly led the NFL at the midway point, using it on around 30 percent of offensive snaps. Seattle, Washington, Carolina and San Francisco use it anywhere from 7-13 percent of the time. So no, it's not taking the NFL by storm. It's just another cool wrinkle that a select group of teams are using, and they're still using it effectively.

While the newness factor contributed to the "boom" of the read option's 6.2 yards per carry last year, even after spending an entire offseason preparing for it, defenses are still only limiting handoffs in that scheme to 4.7 yards per carry in 2013. I like to think offensive coordinators can work with that.
Click to expand...

College gimmick bullshit that will never work in the NFL and will disappear completely after 2012!
 
O

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
cdyhybrid said:
I guess my main point of contention is what's the difference between a "good" QB playing in a shitty system and a "bad" QB playing in a good system? They probably both result in the same thing: inconsistency and mediocre production. If your QB doesn't fit your system (and vice versa) he's a bad QB (for that system).
Click to expand...

But you might admit that some systems might not work for any QB. A couple of injuries at receiver (which wasn't a strong unit to begin with) and dogmatic adherence to a poor-mediocre run game combined with predictable and awkward play calling isn't exactly a recipe for success.
 
C

Colasante

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
The narrative on the Colts is mindblowing.

Do next to nothing besides draft a can't miss franchise QB - masterful reload. I couldn't believe what I was hearing during Colts Broncos.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's fair. Allen, Fleener, Ballard, and Hilton were all good to great picks last year as well. Totally restocked their offense in one draft. The players that were there before- Gonzalez, Collie, Addai, etc. are all out of the league now. He had to build nearly from scratch. It's not Grigson's fault Allen and Ballard, in addition to Bradshaw and Wayne, got injured this season. That being said, it is his fault that he mortgaged their future for Trent Richardson and seemed to do a poor job drafting this year.
 
K

Konka

Banned
Colasante said:
I don't think that's fair. Allen, Fleener, Ballard, and Hilton were all good to great picks last year as well. Totally restocked their offense in one draft. The players that were there before- Gonzalez, Collie, Addai, etc. are all out of the league now. He had to build nearly from scratch. It's not Grigson's fault Allen and Ballard, in addition to Bradshaw and Wayne, got injured this season. That being said, it is his fault that he mortgaged their future for Trent Richardson and seemed to do a poor job drafting this year.
Click to expand...

They can pick up Lawrence Maroney...?
 
S

squicken

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
The narrative on the Colts is mindblowing.

Do next to nothing besides draft a can't miss franchise QB - masterful reload. I couldn't believe what I was hearing during Colts Broncos.
Click to expand...

The defense cratering is crazy. It's sort of like they all the sudden got figured out and can't fix it. With Reggie, they had no depth. Allen was their next best guy after Hilton and he got hurt before the year. Colts just didn't do a good job building the roster, and I think last year may end up being counter-productive the way Irsay is acting. They could have had Josh Gordon had they not panicked on the Trent Truck trade

Now they have nothing to show for their 2014 first round pick that gets better every week
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
Colasante said:
I don't think that's fair. Allen, Fleener, Ballard, and Hilton were all good to great picks last year as well. Totally restocked their offense in one draft. The players that were there before- Gonzalez, Collie, Addai, etc. are all out of the league now. He had to build nearly from scratch. It's not Grigson's fault Allen and Ballard, in addition to Bradshaw and Wayne, got injured this season. That being said, it is his fault that he mortgaged their future for Trent Richardson and seemed to do a poor job drafting this year.
Click to expand...

That's not a rebuild. The trenches on both sides are shit. Granted, Mathis is having a resurgent season, but he's old guard. Colts were winning games despite their sieve like o-line, no running game, and suspect defense. Now, unsurprisingly, the chickens are coming home to roost.
 
C

cdyhybrid

Member
offtopic said:
But you might admit that some systems might not work for any QB. A couple of injuries at receiver (which wasn't a strong unit to begin with) and dogmatic adherence to a poor-mediocre run game combined with predictable and awkward play calling isn't exactly a recipe for success.
Click to expand...

I do think that there's probably some unnecessary complication there (even ignoring the fact that Kaep isn't Peyton), but Harbaugh managed to make it work well with Andrew Luck.

I realize that college isn't the NFL and Kaep isn't Luck, and that Roman plays a part in this, but I doubt "offensive genius" Harbaugh just forgot how to coach. He must not think Roman is that bad if he hasn't fired him yet.
 
S

Spinluck

Member
We signed Chris Rainey? Wasn't he a Steeler?

So sad he was to wear our cursed jerseys. Now he will probably get injured or suck far more than he ever has.
 
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