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NFL 2013 Week 13 |OT| Guns of the Patriots

Milchjon

Member
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Ill just leave this here...

No one has ever been so overwhelmed by the greatness of a Texans QB's play, he felt the need to kiss him.

Think about that.
 

Colasante

Member
I'm going to let Kellen complete a few more passes than 10 a game to really compare and contrast, but agree about the draft pick, obviously. Though I do think I would take Mike Evans in the top 5 if he checks out off the field

I don't think there's any way Evans will go that high, if only because he's likely to run a slow 40. He's probably worthy of top five consideration though. Take Jake Matthews with the Redskins pick and Mike Evans with the Rams' original pick. Maybe you'll get lucky and Manziel will still be there in the second round.
 

squicken

Member
I'm

This play went up as drawn. All the protection shifted to the right, blitz came from the left, Campbell chokes up the ball. At the beginning of this season I forgot Lebeau was even capable of drawing up plays like this. Nice to be ahead in games finally.

Those exotic blitzes are why I never get too mad at the give up draw. If the OL and or QB can't handle it, then live to fight another day. It's why it is so crazy that CLE is throwing so much
 

chuckddd

Fear of a GAF Planet
This play went up as drawn. All the protection shifted to the right, blitz came from the left, Campbell chokes up the ball. At the beginning of this season I forgot Lebeau was even capable of drawing up plays like this. Nice to be ahead in games finally.

This is why Polamalu stays. Just adds so much versatility to the defense. I don't know if Shamarko will ever be able to replace it.

Also, Cam Heyward is the truth.

e - Does Hood have the rb in single coverage there? :jnc
 
I'm more encouraged by Jones being diverse. At the beginning of the season all he had was a (wide) speed rush. He's increased his repertoire greatly. Just in time too.

steelers3.gif


This play went up as drawn. All the protection shifted to the right, blitz came from the left, Campbell chokes up the ball. At the beginning of this season I forgot Lebeau was even capable of drawing up plays like this. Nice to be ahead in games finally.
Slick
 

Doomsayer

Member
I'm more encouraged by Jones being diverse. At the beginning of the season all he had was a (wide) speed rush. He's increased his repertoire greatly. Just in time too.

steelers3.gif


This play went up as drawn. All the protection shifted to the right, blitz came from the left, Campbell chokes up the ball. At the beginning of this season I forgot Lebeau was even capable of drawing up plays like this. Nice to be ahead in games finally.

This is great, but man those Browns receivers are a special kind of dumb. How does not ONE receiver that isn't being covered think about being the hot read?
 

squicken

Member
I don't think there's any way Evans will go that high, if only because he's likely to run a slow 40. He's probably worthy of top five consideration though. Take Jake Matthews with the Redskins pick and Mike Evans with the Rams' original pick. Maybe you'll get lucky and Manziel will still be there in the second round.

The playoffs and that NE-DEN game reminded me that officials swallow their whistles in big games. Peyton needed DT to make tough catches for him, and he couldn't. Meanwhile Gronk was too big for any Broncos defender. The Rams need their big WR that can catch contested passes. They've really struggled on 3rd downs, and the lack of a big target killed them in the SEA game in particular. Evans or Amaro. I want one of those guys
 
Does anyone speak Irsay? I need a translation.

Oh stewardess, I speak dickweed.

I didn't break the bank,millions cash over cap/Load Brinks Truck,only to be hijacked n stormed on the way 2 stadium by machine gun MANIACS!

Clearly he's planning to make a break for it, leave Indianapolis with millions in cash, load up the truck and hijack the team at night during a winter storm, and head on his way to his new stadium in the home of MGM, LA.

Like scumbag father, like scumbag son.
 
This is why Polamalu stays. Just adds so much versatility to the defense. I don't know if Shamarko will ever be able to replace it.

Also, Cam Heyward is the truth.

e - Does Hood have the rb in single coverage there? :jnc

Polamalu is still a beast around scrimmage. It's his coverage that sucks. Granted, it was never great to begin with, but now he's getting eaten by QBs.

This is great, but man those Browns receivers are a special kind of dumb. How does not ONE receiver that isn't being covered think about being the hot read?

Yeah, it takes advantage of the Browns' moron receivers.
 
steelers2.gif


I kinda feel bad for this because the story of this season is that CB's are taking Brown (#84) for granted this season. Definitely won't happen next year. We need a strong guy opposite him. I want a Receiver in the first Colbert! No shrimps!
 

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
So how exactly are talking heads concluding that Kaepernick has been bad this year? For QBs with more than 300 attempts he is 5th in total QBR this year:

1. Manning
2. Rivers
3. Brees
4. Rodgers
5. Kaepernick
6. Ryan
7. Wilson
8. Luck
9. Stafford
10. Brady

tQBR seems like the best stat to use based on what I've read.
 

cdyhybrid

Member
So how exactly are talking heads concluding that Kaepernick has been bad this year? For QBs with more than 300 attempts he is 5th in total QBR this year:

1. Manning
2. Rivers
3. Brees
4. Rodgers
5. Kaepernick
6. Ryan
7. Wilson
8. Luck
9. Stafford
10. Brady

tQBR seems like the best stat to use based on what I've read.

Because the only people that use QBR work for ESPN.
 

Doomsayer

Member
So how exactly are talking heads concluding that Kaepernick has been bad this year? For QBs with more than 300 attempts he is 5th in total QBR this year:

1. Manning
2. Rivers
3. Brees
4. Rodgers
5. Kaepernick
6. Ryan
7. Wilson
8. Luck
9. Stafford
10. Brady

tQBR seems like the best stat to use based on what I've read.

Stats mean dick. He has passed the eye test, maybe three times this entire year.
 

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
Because the only people that use QBR work for ESPN.

But more should be using it. Funny thing is, ESPN commentators are criticizing Kaep as well. He definitely hasn't been flawless but he has performed pretty well in an offense that has a lot of problems running the ball despite running heavy sets all the time, poor pass protection, receivers that can't get open and a massively confusing offensive system that requires him to frequently change the play with like 5 seconds left on the play clock.

The 49ers have issues but he hasn't been one of them despite what the national media would have you believe.
 

Greg

Member
Still no snow over here, and rain expected for the next days.

I'm stuck following the #Maine hashtag on Instagram for all my snow porn needs :'(
we're supposed to get 6 inches of snow through the night

the stuff I just shoveled was packy too - prime snowman snow!
 

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
Stats mean dick. He has passed the eye test, maybe three times this entire year.

Really? He usually passes the eye test for me and I'm pretty harsh on QBs (for example, Smith NEVER passed the eye test even when he had "good" games). What I see is very little time to throw to receivers that aren't open. He has been very accurate even when not completing passes because, you know, it is hard to complete even perfectly thrown passes to well covered receivers.

He is getting criticized even for very well thrown passes. I think one attempt in the first series last night he threw to Vernon Davis drifting across the middle about 15yds downfield. The commentator (Gruden?) immediately said the ball was overthrown and "sailed" out of reach. However, they showed a replay a few seconds later that clearly showed that Davis was well covered (as were all the other receivers) and the ball was put about helmet high just outside his shoulder and that he got both hands on it but just didn't catch it. In fact, it was the only place the ball could have been put where the cover guy couldn't have put a hand on it. In short, a very good throw that should have been caught.
 

cdyhybrid

Member
But more should be using it. Funny thing is, ESPN commentators are criticizing Kaep as well. He definitely hasn't been flawless but he has performed pretty well in an offense that has a lot of problems running the ball despite running heavy sets all the time, poor pass protection, receivers that can't get open and a massively confusing offensive system that requires him to frequently change the play with like 5 seconds left on the play clock.

The 49ers have issues but he hasn't been one of them despite what the national media would have you believe.

It doesn't matter if he's "the problem". What matters is that they aren't getting enough out of the passing game/the QB position. Using some arcane formula to prop him up doesn't change that.
 

squicken

Member
I like QBR more than any other QB metric, but it is still flawed. It always about the eyeball test. I was chatting with ESPN's head stats dude on Twitter about QBR. They will be incorporating pressure into the formula next year. I have some issues with anything that is too reliant on all the EPA and WPA stuff, which QBR and FO both have. At least FO filter out tipped passes, which QBR doesn't
 

offtopic

He measures in centimeters
And predictably from an opaque, proprietary ESPN metric:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/10/10/espns-qbr-stat-puts-tebow-ahead-of-rodgers/

Also troubling are the various fudge factors employed in what we know of the calculation.

Yes, like many stats tQBR fails at small sample sizes which is why I qualified my original rating with "300+ attempts".

There are fudge factors but I don't see how you can get around that. Someone has to decide on if something was underthrown or overthrown or if someone was covered or not and how much time the QB had to throw. Real football stats have had a renaissance with these sort of soft stats because that is the only way to evaluate that sport. But there are a lot of those soft/grey areas in football as well and unless we take them into account somehow they we won't know how someone is really playing (outside of the eyeball test which tends to have a lot of bias...).
 

cdyhybrid

Member
Yes, like many stats tQBR fails at small sample sizes which is why I qualified my original rating with "300+ attempts".

There are fudge factors but I don't see how you can get around that. Someone has to decide on if something was underthrown or overthrown or if someone was covered or not and how much time the QB had to throw. Real football stats have had a renaissance with these sort of soft stats because that is the only way to evaluate that sport. But there are a lot of those soft/grey areas in football as well and unless we take them into account somehow they we won't know how someone is really playing (outside of the eyeball test which tends to have a lot of bias...).

The best way to evaluate is the same as it's always been: watch the film. There are too many moving parts on the field to distill someone's performance down to a single stat.
 
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