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NFL 2015 Week 1 |OT| - A Fraud’s Quest for Gold

S

Spinluck

Member
bionic77 said:
You tell that filthy Pats fan!

At least when Luck destroys his cell phones he has the built in excuse of extreme fear of technology/demon magic as one would expect from a caveman. And he does it himself!
Click to expand...

lol

For reference:

tumblr_mleoju4WZa1rk5zfdo1_540.jpg


thatsmyQB
 
Y

yankeehater

Member
gutshot said:
For those who are into advanced stats, Football Outsiders posted their 2015 DVOA projections:

NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC West: Seattle

NFC WC: St. Louis, New Orleans

AFC North: Cincinnati
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC East: New England
AFC West: Denver

AFC WC: Baltimore, San Diego

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2015/2015-dvoa-projections
Click to expand...

Finally, allow me to draw your attention to one team that curiously ends up with almost the same forecast it had a couple months ago. New England had 10.5 mean wins in the book, when we made Jimmy Garoppolo the starting quarterback in the first four games in 75 percent of the simulations. Now, Tom Brady plays all 16 games and... the Patriots are at 10.6 mean wins. Yes, that's strange. Penalizing them for being without Brandon LaFell for 5-6 games plays a small role, but also, I think this may be the one place where changing the methodology of handling suspensions matters, because of what it does to Pittsburgh's odds of winning the first two games in the simulation. If it's not that, I honestly have no idea how to explain it.
Click to expand...

Jimmy is equal to Brady in their simulations.
 
Goro Majima

Goro Majima

Kitty Genovese Member
gutshot said:
For those who are into advanced stats, Football Outsiders posted their 2015 DVOA projections:

NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC West: Seattle

NFC WC: St. Louis, New Orleans

AFC North: Cincinnati
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC East: New England
AFC West: Denver

AFC WC: Baltimore, San Diego

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2015/2015-dvoa-projections
Click to expand...

They think the NFC North is shittier than the NFC South?

Okay I can kinda see it because the North is always shitty. I can see the Packers winning it 10-6 with everyone else winning 7 games or less.
 
C

captive

Joe Six-Pack: posting for the common man
gutshot said:
For those who are into advanced stats, Football Outsiders posted their 2015 DVOA projections:

NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC West: Seattle

NFC WC: St. Louis, New Orleans

AFC North: Cincinnati
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC East: New England
AFC West: Denver

AFC WC: Baltimore, San Diego

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2015/2015-dvoa-projections
Click to expand...
I love advanced stats as much as the next guy, but how can they do this with any sort of confidence without any data from this year?
MechDX said:
Because you live in Florida

Also they are the Texans to our Colts
Click to expand...
You remember that game the Texans were down to the fins at home and Schaub threw literally every pass to Andre Johnson and then ran it in on a qb draw? Would have been 08 or 09, it was when I had season tickets. Of course the Texans were driving away from the end zone i was in. Seemed like every game I went to the action was on the other side of the field.
 
R

Respect

Member
Predicitions sure to go wrong:

AFC - Could easily see NE, BAL, DEN, IND, PIT, MIA represent the AFC...all depends on who matches up with who come playoff time. They all have their issues though...with some other honorable mentions...

NE - weak secondary

PIT - weak secondary

IND - can't stop the run

DEN - Manning's health and Kubiak/Manning dynamic

BAL - not sold on their receivers...and their secondary seems to always be banged up.

MIA - don't trust Philbin

BUF - If they had a good QB, they'd be a playoff team

CIN - alot of talent, but don't trust Dalton

TEX - same as BUF

NFC - 2 team race, SEA or GB. SEA is coming off of 2 fully extended seasons and an obviously tough loss, but I think they are still the team to beat right now with GB close behind. Either would be a clear favorite over anyone in the AFC today. PHI, DAL, ATL, CAR, will probably round out the playoffs...with the feeling ARI will probably be that team left out with a 10-6 record. In the end it will still come down to SEA & GB, they are just the most complete teams right now.
 
G

gutshot

Member
captive said:
I love advanced stats as much as the next guy, but how can they do this with any sort of confidence without any data from this year?

You remember that game the Texans were down to the fins at home and Schaub threw literally every pass to Andre Johnson and then ran it in on a qb draw? Would have been 08 or 09, it was when I had season tickets. Of course the Texans were driving away from the end zone i was in. Seemed like every game I went to the action was on the other side of the field.
Click to expand...

.

Offense, defense, and special teams DVOA are all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams over the past decade. This offseason, we overhauled and improved the team projection system for the first time in a few years. The new system starts by considering the team's DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback. Then we look at a number of other variables which suggest when a team will be better or worse than would otherwise be expected due to standard regression towards the mean. The biggest change is that the new system does a much better job of incorporating personnel changes. For offense, this variable is based on DYAR for non-quarterbacks, while for defense, this variable is based on the net change in Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value stat over a replacement level set at 3 AV. Other factors include coaching experience, recent draft history, combined tenure on the offensive line, and certain players returning from injury (or, in the case of these preseason updates, certain players getting injured in the preseason).
Click to expand...
 
G

Gigglepoo

Member
Prediction time! If I'm right, I'll gloat endlessly. If I'm wrong, no one will ever remember.

NFC East -- Eagles
NFC South -- Falcon
NFC North -- Packers
NFC West -- Cardinals

NFC Wild cards -- Saints, Cowboys

AFC East -- Patriots
AFC South -- Colts
AFC North -- Ravens
AFC West -- Chargers

AFC Wild cards -- Chiefs, Steelers

Super Bowl

Ravens over Packers
 
E

eznark

Banned
MRSA said:
Members of deceiving fraud cults will argue against facts.
Click to expand...

The best thing about the Patriots getting completely exposed is letting their fans yap away and completely discredit themselves. It's been a real treat, especially because Goodell came out looking like an idiot too!

When Bob Kraft and Roger Goodell lose, we all win.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
NFC East - Giants
NFC South - Saints
NFC North - Packers
NFC West - Seahawks
NFC Wild Cards - Eagles, Cardinals

AFC East - Patriots
AFC South - Colts
AFC North - Steelers
AFC West - Broncos
AFC Wild Cards - Ravens, Chiefs

Super Bowl - Packers over Colts
 
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