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NFL 2015 Week 14 |OT| - A Fraud Probably Injures Himself

bionic77

Member
let's be real though

the only stats that really matter are how many INTs a QB has thrown, and how many game-winning drives they have led
Stats are for morons who somehow don't see or understand what is happening on the field.

Tell me this Greg, what is the stat for the influence Munn has had on Rodgers game and sudden and alarming drop in masculinity? If you look at the stats you would just think that suddenly Rodgers forgot to play football altogether, instead of just in January at home in the playoffs. People with a brain know the real reason though. He is dating a whore from Hollywood is sucking out his talent and manhood one drop at a time.
 
Everyone at FO will tell you they are a serious work in progress if you ever talk to them one on one. They know they are in the nascent stages of developing something. But unless you publish it it'll never get peer reviewed basically. SABR stuff took so long because there was no clearinghouse, just a handful of people writing pamphlets and talking to each other. DYAR is advancing much more rapidly.

My issue is I think the idea is fundamentally flawed. In baseball you can extrapolate individual influence fairly easily because on the vast majority of pitches there is no one on base or the runners on base are stationary. Everyone reacts after the pitch, and at most the only thing that matters is the action of like 5 people depending on where the ball is hit, but mostly it's like three people and one of them is the first basemen who needs to move 5 feet. Easy to examine those plays and with better and better batted ball data, easy to pull useful information.

In football, on literally every singly play the actions of all 22 players matters a MASSIVE deal. And not only what those 22 players do, but how they interact with each other, who they interact with, and how they line up. As far as I am concerned, it's essentially impossible to create The Stat that will explain any individual players worth relative to another player.

PREACH

Good break down of why statistics have been such a valuable part of baseball analysis but just don't work as well at telling the story in a lot of other sports.
 

Greg

Member
Stats are for morons who somehow don't see or understand what is happening on the field.

Tell me this Greg, what is the stat for the influence Munn has had on Rodgers game and sudden and alarming drop in masculinity? If you look at the stats you would just think that suddenly Rodgers forgot to play football altogether, instead of just in January at home in the playoffs. People with a brain know the real reason though. He is dating a whore from Hollywood is sucking out his talent and manhood one drop at a time.
there is no stat

you either practice black magic or you don't
 

RBH

Member
You are the racist for assuming that black magic is bad.

image.php
 

eznark

Banned
PREACH

Good break down of why statistics have been such a valuable part of baseball analysis but just don't work as well at telling the story in a lot of other sports.

I don't think that's entirely true. Some of the stats that are being created are useful when used as part of a broader narrative. In baseball, you pretty much can pull a few stats and they can tell a compelling narrative.

Football metrics require work. They must be put into context and are really only useful as comparative tools, not as declarative facts. My buddy Paul does a great job with this (I post his articles from time to time here) and so does Andy Benoit but...that's pretty much it. The stats like DVOA/DYAR require almost MORE work if you want to use them as part of your explanation article whereas WAR and the like are easy shorthands.

Point being, football analytics are useful they are just almost always incorrectly applied.
 

Goro Majima

Kitty Genovese Member
Thankfully quarterback stats are mostly meaningful and they're the most important player on the field but you have to always observe a multitude of stats to get the whole picture. Which is why QBR is the biggest bunch of bullshit ever developed. There's no reasonable way to distill quarterback performance into one all encompassing stat that makes it easy for the sports media to spout out to people with short attention spans. QB rating is the best we've got but just using that stat alone is dumb. Even then I don't think people are out there tracking INTs that were tipped balls, differentiating between coverage sacks and poor OL play, checking down when guys deep are wide open, calling bad protection at the line presnap, etc.

Basically what ez said.

Speaking of stats, it's going to be absurd when Cam steals Carson's MVP because Carson is having an amazing year and Cam is above average. Brady too but fuck cheaters and Gronk is too good.



Believe!

Houston

Far away from Wienke and Dega

Kingwood isn't that far from EaDo

:)
 
It's 60 degrees and Perfect as usual in San Diego (But it's supposed to rain later, I'll be on the plane to that hellhole in Georgia by then though)

I'm definitely moving out here when I get a little bit more money and am done with the Beast Coast.
 

Kave_Man

come in my shame circle
Got my confirmation for my Cleveland trip. Leaving tomorrow afternoon.

If I don't survive or accidentally end up in East Cleveland someone take over my role of shitting on the Bills and direct it towards WanderingWind.

Wish the Cavs were playing, would have loved to go to a game.
 

chuckddd

Fear of a GAF Planet
WNST @WNST

Matt Schaub is missing from his third straight practice, appearing to make it more likely that Jimmy Clausen starts on Sunday. #Ravens

#Pray4blarry
 

squicken

Member
PREACH

Good break down of why statistics have been such a valuable part of baseball analysis but just don't work as well at telling the story in a lot of other sports.

There seems to be a lot of value in those basketball efficiency heat maps. And soccer and hockey have some early work on possession and on what part of the field/ice it occurs on

I don't disagree with anything ez has said about how difficult football stats. Nothing right now is better than a jumping off point, but, I just don't think they are entirely dismissable. But they all need context, and unless you have watch alot of what is going with each team and player, it's hard to know that context

I do think we are a long way when it comes to looking at stats on a time wide basis. EPA and WP are really good b/c they overcome the sample size problem that is the biggest facing almost every football stat. Same with drive stats and success rate

From the QBR article, from the part on Cam Newton; CAR's defense allows 13 yards a drive and a total of 12 points after his turnovers this year. EPA would say they should have given up 25 points. That's the kind of football stat I think is useful
 
:jnc please. Vegas is my second home. Thought about looking into Henderson. But real talk, how's the education department out there?

Lowest in the country. Every year they have to hire 2,000 new teachers because so many quit due to the district being horrible. 6 years without a raise, now we get to pay 20% for our insurance, and they even froze step increases this year. All this while the state is making money hand over fist. My wife has finally agreed with me that we are going to move to a different state when my kids are school age.
 

Kave_Man

come in my shame circle
Lowest in the country. Every year they have to hire 2,000 new teachers because so many quit due to the district being horrible. 6 years without a raise, now we get to pay 20% for our insurance, and they even froze step increases this year. All this while the state is making money hand over fist. My wife has finally agreed with me that we are going to move to a different state when my kids are school age.

Please confirm the status of your giraffe.
 

WanderingWind

Mecklemore Is My Favorite Wrapper
Got my confirmation for my Cleveland trip. Leaving tomorrow afternoon.

If I don't survive or accidentally end up in East Cleveland someone take over my role of shitting on the Bills and direct it towards WanderingWind.

Wish the Cavs were playing, would have loved to go to a game.

Can't shit on something that's above you.
 
Lowest in the country. Every year they have to hire 2,000 new teachers because so many quit due to the district being horrible. 6 years without a raise, now we get to pay 20% for our insurance, and they even froze step increases this year. All this while the state is making money hand over fist. My wife has finally agreed with me that we are going to move to a different state when my kids are school age.
Damn Sorry to hear that. My wife has been trying to past the CBEST and CSET she can start teaching in public schools. Right now she subs at private schools.
 
Damn Sorry to hear that. My wife has been trying to past the CBEST and CSET she can start teaching in public schools. Right now she subs at private schools.

I had to pass both of those tests when I got my CA teaching license. I tried for 2 years to get a teaching job in SF but all I could get was elementary PE.
 
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