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NFL Divisional 2012 |OT| Schaubenfraud

S

squicken

Member
Talon said:
He's the best QB in the league bar none. He might not be as smart as Peyton, but he's got more physical ability right now. He might not be as womanly as Brady, but he can still win the hearts of American men.
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I don't know if it's the shoulder pads, or all the HGH he took to make his arm go from Chuck Knoblauch to Shawon Dunston, but Rodgers' head is too big for his body. Brady will always have our hearts
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
tiB2g.png


Get used to it Steelers age.

Pic courtesy of Dutch Patriot.
 
F

FrenchMovieTheme

Member
squicken said:
Seahawks will roll you. You need the Falcons to win. Same with GB. SEA is the best team. You want someone else to beat them
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Nope. I'm 100% confident we would beat the chickens and it wouldn't be close. If they had to play a healthy qb against the skins they would've been blown out.

I like that people who have no idea what they're talking about say "oh Pete really opened up the play book later". Lol. Seahawks ran the same exact offense against us both games.

They caught us in a bad spot on the road after a tough pats game. But that's ok, you'll be eating a bag of dicks soon as well!
 
S

squicken

Member
eznark said:
Squicken, if can stop trolling for a bit, why the boner for yards per attempt? Is there any studies that show a correlation between throwing it far and having success?
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:( I posted my love of Rodgers. I think Chase Stuart did something on ANYA and AYA but I can't find it. But those are the two preferred QB metics for the Pro Football Reference guys
 
T

The_Darkest_Red

Member
TheDrizzlerJ11 said:
J Martin has no footwork. He was the one who got blown up by Aldon Smith.
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It was one play, and I've yet to see an angle that even showed his feet on that play. It looked more like a strength issue than anything. Other than that he played fairly well against Smith that game. He hasn't been outstanding since stepping in for Long but I'd say he's at least been good.
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
YPA is a stat that can be taken easily out of context, especially when the QB in question's team has an efficient running attack. I'm sure it's no coincidence that Russell Wilson, RGIII, Kaepernick and I think Alex Smith before the benching all had high YPA.
 
Y

yankeehater

Member
Oh god I just got an email from the Eagles talking about their coaching search and listing all of Lovies career accomplishments. I hope it isnt a sign.
 
T

TheKaeptain

Banned
I've now been told by three people in two weeks that I look like Aaron Rodgers. I now proclaim Godgers the best looking man in the NFL.
 
T

TheDrizzlerJ11

Member
The_Darkest_Red said:
It was one play, and I've yet to see an angle that even showed his feet on that play. It looked more like a strength issue than anything. Other than that he played fairly well against Smith that game. He hasn't been outstanding since stepping in for Long but I'd say he's at least been good.
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They'ves been commenting on how he needs to improve his footwork since August.
http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2012/...ookie-jonathan-martin-could-start-for-o-line/
Martin does need to step up his pass protection at the NFL level. He can be susceptible to speed rushers. When beaten by a quick first step Martin struggles to get himself back into the play. At practice he is going against the fantastic Cameron Wake. That will surely hone his skills. Already we see a difference from day 1 to now as far as Martin adjusting to speed rushes. Philbin teaches/preaches technique and Martin has technique areas that require improvement. Philbin will help Martin vs speed rushes, and help him use his hands better (at college his hands often ended up in the wrong places, but his skill vs collegians was enough to overcome – cannot count on that vs NFL defenders). Philbin will also help Martin with his footwork. He is quick, but at times his footwork can be sloppy (again, good enough at the college level – not going to cut it vs NFL competition)
Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2012/...n-could-start-for-o-line/?s4mte11d6U2EWMcm.99
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M

mr2xxx

Banned
eznark said:
Squicken, if can stop trolling for a bit, why the boner for yards per attempt? Is there any studies that show a correlation between throwing it far and having success?
Click to expand...

I doubt there is a strong correlation between succes and yd per attempt. Yds per attempt is probably highly correlated with a strong running game since Rg3 and Wilson lead the league. I wouldn't doubt if kaep was up there too. The reason why yds per attempt is so high is because these offenses can pick and choose when to pass instead of having to pass it the majority of the downs which will decrease the efficiency of their passing offense.
 
T

Talon

Member
squicken said:
I don't know if it's the shoulder pads, or all the HGH he took to make his arm go from Chuck Knoblauch to Shawon Dunston, but Rodgers' head is too big for his body. Brady will always have our hearts
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This is truly the greatest mystery of our times. I still have no idea what happened.
 
S

squicken

Member
It's not plain YPA. It's Adjusted YPA, which adds and subtracts yards for TDs and INTs. Then Net YPA which counts sacks as attempts and subtracts the sack yardage lost

QBR/Football Outsiders/Brian Burke use win probability and game states and all that stuff. There's no one true stat b/c there's so many moving pieces. But I think looking at them all helps form a good idea of things that maybe we miss or overrate.
 
D

Dragon

Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
tiB2g.png


Get used to it Steelers age.

Pic courtesy of Dutch Patriot.
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No thanks.

mr2xxx said:
I doubt there is a strong correlation between succes and yd per attempt. Yds per attempt is probably highly correlated with a strong running game since Rg3 and Wilson lead the league. I wouldn't doubt if kaep was up there too. The reason why yds per attempt is so high is because these offenses can pick and choose when to pass instead of having to pass it the majority of the downs which will decrease the efficiency of their passing offense.
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It also helps with running QBs that they don't necessarily have to throw the ball away, they can run and get decent yardage.
 
T

The_Darkest_Red

Member
TheDrizzlerJ11 said:
They'ves been commenting on how he needs to improve his footwork since August.
http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2012/...ookie-jonathan-martin-could-start-for-o-line/
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Since August, or in August? Who's to say he hasn't improved since then? I think his performance in the games he's played in is more important than concerns that were raised before the season started, you know? Regardless, I'm not saying his footwork is excellent or that he's just as good as Long was as a rookie but I do think he has the potential to start at LT (or RT if they get a better LT) for the Phins.

Do you think they should keep Long or something? I'm not totally opposed to that idea either, it's just a matter of how much it would cost them.
 
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Talon

Member
See, I think stats are incredibly useful and can tell us a lot in baseball, basketball and hockey, but soccer and football are completely different beasts. You are so much more reliant on all the other pieces on the field with the way the game works that stats as production can only tell you so much. Of course, we only can use the information that we have available to us, but I mostly find it useful as a comparison tool rather than as valuation.
 
S

squicken

Member
http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

Correlating Pass Stats with Wins

What does make the formula predictive? Using net yards per attempt — which deducts sacks from a passer’s production — is the simplest and best way to predict future performance. That’s why when looking at which quarterback will perform the best in the future, NY/A is my favorite statistic. When analyzing past quarterbacks, I prefer Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, which gives a 45-yard penalty for interceptions and a 20-yard bonus for touchdowns. That’s more useful as an explanatory statistic than NY/A, but is not as helpful in predicting the future.

Passer rating? To the extent it is based around yards per attempt (and to some extent, touchdown rate), it is useful. On the margins, it certainly does the job, and when comparing quarterbacks with similar interception rates and completion percentages, it can be effective. But with a significant 100-yard penalty on interceptions and a 20-yard bonus for completions, passer rating only really works when you stack the deck: and that’s precisely why passer rating will always be correlated with wins. That doesn’t make it a useful stat, though.
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edit

Talon said:
See, I think stats are incredibly useful and can tell us a lot in baseball, basketball and hockey, but soccer and football are completely different beasts. You are so much more reliant on all the other pieces on the field with the way the game works that stats as production can only tell you so much. Of course, we only can use the information that we have available to us, but I mostly find it useful as a comparison tool rather than as valuation.
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For sure. Brian Burke had a quote on that QBR thing I posted a few weeks back that was something like "baseball stats end the conversation. Football stats help start the conversation"
 
T

TheDrizzlerJ11

Member
The_Darkest_Red said:
Since August, or in August? Who's to say he hasn't improved since then? I think his performance in the games he's played in is more important than concerns that were raised before the season started, you know? Regardless, I'm not saying his footwork is excellent or that he's just as good as Long was as a rookie but I do think he has the potential to start at LT (or RT if they get a better LT) for the Phins.

Do you think they should keep Long or something? I'm not totally opposed to that idea either, it's just a matter of how much it would cost them.
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Yeah since August, the Aldon Smith play was because of footwork.

I think we should give Ryan Clady his big payday, he turned down a 5 year/$50M deal by the Broncos earlier this season. Keep the money at the position but if we're paying that much take a healthy stud, not a broken one.
 
T

The_Darkest_Red

Member
TheDrizzlerJ11 said:
Yeah since August, the Aldon Smith play was because of footwork.

I think we should give Ryan Clady his big payday, he turned down a 5 year/$50M deal by the Broncos earlier this season. Keep the money at the position but if we're paying that much take a healthy stud.
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So one bad play from a rookie against one of the best pass rushers in the NFL is enough for you to write a guy off, huh? Seems a little harsh if you ask me. I like the Clady idea, though.
 
T

TheDrizzlerJ11

Member
The_Darkest_Red said:
So one bad play from a rookie against one of the best pass rushers in the NFL is enough for you to write a guy off, huh? Seems a little harsh if you ask me. I like the Clady idea, though.
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All I'm saying is he doesn't look like a starter yet to me. Lets not get Tannehill killed because we want to give our 2nd year OT experience.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Talon said:
See, I think stats are incredibly useful and can tell us a lot in baseball, basketball and hockey, but soccer and football are completely different beasts. You are so much more reliant on all the other pieces on the field with the way the game works that stats as production can only tell you so much. Of course, we only can use the information that we have available to us, but I mostly find it useful as a comparison tool rather than as valuation.
Click to expand...

That's where I fall a bit, though I don't even think things like DVOA are useful as a comparison tool necessarily. It took 25 years to get to the point where compound stats like WAR were truly refined and useful. People have been doing decent work with advanced football analysis for what, 10 years? Honestly, we are evaluating what, 35-40 QB's a year at the absolute top end? Maybe half of those are worth talking about? Unlike baseball where every single player (even pitchers!) hit at some point thus we are comparing similar tasks, there is no such thing in football, even on a position basis. Could Rodgers run the Washington offense? Not a chance. Could Cam Newton run the Packers offense? Lol. Could Stafford stay away from the buffet table? Better luck getting Palmer in a wish bone offense.

We aren't just comparing players, we are comparing systems and situations. It's so much more complex an analysis that I don't think picking out individual players is even worth it as a "discussion starter." It's a neat side discussion to have during the summer.
 
K

KingKong

Member
Does it really only take 6-8 months to recover from a torn LCL and ACL? That's the same amount of time as Peterson and that was a huge surprise to everyone, not to mention he didn't have an ACL injury before and according to Andrews he had an amazingly healthy knee
 
S

squicken

Member
eznark said:
TCould Rodgers run the Washington offense? Not a chance. Could Cam Newton run the Packers offense? Lol. Could Stafford stay away from the buffet table? Better luck getting Palmer in a wish bone offense.

We aren't just comparing players, we are comparing systems and situations. It's so much more complex an analysis that I don't think picking out individual players is even worth it as a "discussion starter." It's a neat side discussion to have during the summer.
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Do you mean with stats or just discussion in general? Like, Andy Dalton is the biggest impediment to the Bengals moving forward as an offense. Not with stats but with observation, I think that is an argument to make

edit: Mike Tanier is good. Liked his Watt column. also cool that 900 year old Gil Brandt is on Twitter

Gil Brandt ‏@Gil_Brandt
Best player in the draft is Bama's Chance Warmack, but he won't go No. 1. Guards aren't valued that high. Should be though.
 
M

MechDX

Member
http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40891176

Let’s break Watt’s Defeats down so we can measure their impact:

Sacks: 22. Watt is credited with three half-sacks among his 20.5 official sacks. Both defenders get credit for a Defeat when the NFL assigns half-sacks; Watt had a hand in dragging down quarterbacks 22 times, not 20-and-a-half times.

Tackles for a loss on running plays: 24, for minus-65 yards.

Interceptions by teammates after pass deflections: 5. One-third of Texans interceptions this year were the result of a tipped pass by Watt.

Third-down stops (not sacks/turnovers): 5. That’s three passes defensed/deflected and one tackle on a third down rushing play. The only reason this number is so low is because Watt produces so many sacks and turnovers on third downs that there isn’t much left.

Now, let’s mix in some other feats that don’t count as Defeats but are remarkable in their own right.

Passes defensed: 11. Only three of these count as Defeats because they occurred on third down.

Tackles for no gain on running plays: 13. For some reason, this feels like the most impressive stat of all once it is stacked on top of the others. About once per game, Watt stuffs a running back for no gain, and no one really notices because he already has a sack, a batted pass that a teammate may have hauled in and two stuffs. Only one of these no-gain tackles counted as a Defeat.

Here’s one last mind-boggler: Watt in the red zone. He has three sacks, two forced fumbles, six tackles for a loss, two tackles for no gain and three deflected passes, one of which was intercepted by a teammate and returned to set up a score. Watt’s red-zone big play production trumps many defensive linemen’s whole-field big play production.

Add Watt’s routine plays back into the mix, and Texans opponents average minus-147 yards when Watt is involved in a play: a little more than nine lost yards per game, not counting turnovers. That’s not nine yards below NFL average or below the “replacement value” of a typical defensive lineman; it’s nine yards ripped away from the offense. No defender in recent history has done anything like it.
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Dayum!!! If he doesnt get DPOY....
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Yeah, Watt is a beast. Hope he realizes he needs to get out of Houston and go to a real contender so he doesn't waste his whole career there.
 
E

eznark

Banned
squicken said:
Do you mean with stats or just discussion in general? Like, Andy Dalton is the biggest impediment to the Bengals moving forward as an offense. Not with stats but with observation, I think that is an argument to make
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I guess my point is: why? Do these stats tell us anything useful at all that we didn't already know? Is there anything in QBR that we can't figure out by watching a football game?

In baseball we are dealing with tiny shades of difference. If you can get marginally better at 3B by moving Youkilis from 1B to 3B and putting Ortiz at 1B instead of DH, is the added offense worth the loss in defense. There is no correlary in the NFL. Every action and situation is so incredibly specific that you never need to make tiny, incremental decisions. The decisions are huge! It's not a matter of one decisions making a tiny impact over 600 at-bats, it's a matter of one decision impacting 30-50 plays in a game (if we are talking QB v. QB). You don't need granular information to decide that, you can figure it out damn quick with your eyes.
 
G

Godslay

Banned
squicken said:
Romo is not elite but he is an above average and you can win with him. But at this stage of his career he needs a good coach who can transition him to game manager who only has to make a few plays a game (like Elway w/ Shanny)

Right now he has to do everything. No OL. Shit plays. It's like every play they just had to outwork everyone. Never a free lunch. No giant holes for RBs. No WRs running free in the secondary. Garrett's a bad coach but a good hand puppet, so he stays
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I don't believe Elway transitioned to a game manager.

Looking back over attempts Elway was consistently around 400 - 500 attempts a year in the 90's, with a couple low years due to injury. Yards were very consistent throughout this time period. Elway was the same Elway, but he had TD to help carry the load. That offense was very dynamic, and I don't think it falls under the category of being ran by a game manager. The numbers or looking back, tells me otherwise. If anything his production ticked up with Rod Smith, McCaffrey, and Sharpe.
 
E

eznark

Banned
The Verge is fucking schlock. This clown ass fat dude just spent ten minutes of a thirty minute "wrap up show" talking about nerd parties and models at these parties. Nilay Patel must be the most virgin virgin in America.
 
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Talon

Member
eznark said:
The Verge is fucking schlock. This clown ass fat dude just spent ten minutes of a thirty minute "wrap up show" talking about nerd parties and models at these parties. Nilay Patel must be the most virgin virgin in America.
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At least he can speak english unlike that Paul guy. Guy stutters more than Rainman.
 
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