Mel Kiper and Todd McShay posted their revised mock drafts. I will post Mel's first and McShay's to follow.
Mel's:
1Luke JoeckelKansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 310POS: OT
Analysis: At this point the Chiefs could be weighing at least a handful of players for this spot, if they stay here. As of now, at No. 1, a quarterback shouldn't be in the mix. So I think fans needs to consider that K.C. could be looking to secure the best available player here, period. From there, they either consider a QB with their first pick in Round 2, or perhaps the option of trading into the late first to mazimize value. As for Joeckel, at this time he probably represents the best guaranteed production on the pick value. A gifted technician at left tackle, he is already capable of handling good NFL pass-rushers, and could hold down the position for 10 years. Regardless, the Chiefs will be thinking about total draft value and strategy, not just a single pick here.
PLAYER CARD
2Damontre Moore *Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 20HT: 6-4WT: 250POS: DE
Analysis: I'm staying with this selection. The Jaguars were again arguably among the worst pass-rushing teams in the NFL in 2012, and need a guaranteed difference-maker. Moore is that kind of player. I've had a pass-rusher as a top need for this franchise going on four years, and Moore checks that off the list. He's an exceptionally productive defensive end prospect with very good quickness, long arms and elite closing burst as a rusher. He will get to the quarterback, period. The Jags should be a better team in 2013, but it's not just based on whether they get better at quarterback.
PLAYER CARD
3Star LotuleleiOakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: UtahAGE: 23HT: 6-4WT: 320POS: DT
Analysis: The Raiders are really compelled to take the best player available. They're desperate for immediate impact, and Lotulelei is one of those players that makes everybody around him better. He demands multiple blockers or he'll collapse the pocket, and his instincts, vision, bust and power effect both the pass and the run. Oakland also has needs at linebacker, wide receiver and cornerback, but outside of maybe Dee Milliner, I don't think the Raiders can match the value of this pick, much less improve on it.
PLAYER CARD
4Dee Milliner *Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-1WT: 199POS: CB
Analysis: I noted in the previous mock that on a per-play basis, rookie Brandon Boykin might have been the best player in the Eagles secondary toward the end of the season. The Eagles could see a number of personnel changes with the new regime, but they can't afford to fall off significantly in the secondary in a division with Eli Manning, Robert Griffin III and Tony Romo. You might expect Chip Kelly to score points, but he's always put a great emphasis on his defense too. Milliner has elite grades in terms of awareness and ball skills, and he's a physical corner who can push wideouts off routes. And he can flat-out tackle.
PLAYER CARD
5Jarvis Jones *Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 241POS: LB
Analysis: On Tuesday, Detroit cut veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch to clear more cap space. Jones isn't the pure 4-3 defensive end to fill that void, but he'll certainly upgrade the pass rush. No, he's not a perfect fit in the current system, but Gunther Cunningham will be thrilled to scheme with Jones in mind. Roll the tape, and regardless of the how teams tried to stop Jones, you see them fail. He led the nation in sacks even though he was a blocking target, used great leverage to hold up as a run defender and in every case, was simply relentless. Sure, Detroit could also use Milliner if available, but a great pass defense starts with pressure.
PLAYER CARD
6Bjoern Werner *Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22HT: 6-4WT: 255POS: DE
Analysis: The Browns regressed on defense in 2012, and the pass rush was a culprit. This was, by every standard, a bottom-10 unit, and they simply need to add talent. If they want the best player available at this spot, and a guy who fills a void, it might be Werner by the time we get to April. In fact, by then he could be expected to go higher. A late arrival to football, he has a high ceiling, but already has a decent portfolio of pass-rush skills. What's great about Werner isn't just the explosiveness as a pass-rusher, it's also his awareness. He keeps his eyes up and disrupts passing lanes. He's a good fit for the Browns.
PLAYER CARD
7Eric FisherArizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: Central MichiganAGE: 22HT: 6-8WT: 305POS: OT
Analysis: This is one of the spots where you could see a QB come off the board, but at this stage a QB taken at No. 7 would be a significant reach. Until we see major strides by one of the QB options, Arizona is better off adding a key piece it can start right away and looking for a QB in Round 2, or trading up into the late first. And remember, the Cardinals may have moved on a QB in free agency or via a trade by April. Fisher isn't a big name, but he's as a good as any tackle in this class outside of Joeckel. Arizona was a train wreck at tackle for much of 2012, and even with some young guys on the roster, they need to consider a better option if available.
PLAYER CARD
8Alec Ogletree *Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 237POS: LB
Analysis: Sticking with a linebacker here, but going with the higher ceiling. The Bills really need help at interior linebacker, where Kelvin Sheppard is merely adequate. Ogletree was at one time a safety, and you see those kinds of instincts when he plays, because he simply flies to the ball. He's a great pursuit player and a guy who will shoot gaps and make stops in the backfield, but that's also because he has really good instincts. A big key with Ogletree is versatility. There's no reason he can't work on the edge, or inside. He has the ceiling of a player who can do it all.
PLAYER CARD
9Dion JordanNew York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: OregonAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 243POS: OLB
Analysis: Yes, they really need skill position upgrades, with wide receiver, tight end and running back all areas of need. But the value is an issue, so if the Jets don't trade down, they're better served going with the best player available at another position of need. I'm a big fan of the interior, with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples in place, but the Jets could really use an edge rusher. Jordan is light, but he has long arms, great athleticism and I think can be a guy they don't need to shuttle in and out depending on downs and matchups. He has star potential, and the pass rush gets some help.
PLAYER CARD
10Barkevious Mingo *Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-5WT: 242POS: DE
Analysis: Mingo sits on that fine line you can find in this range of the draft. He has the natural skills and athleticism of a devastating pass-rusher in the mold of an Aldon Smith -- those guys don't last into the teens. But there's a small bust potential too if his technique doesn't get better. The guy is long, fast, has a great burst and can flat-out turn the corner. But he also needs to play with better leverage, take on blockers more effectively and find ways to simply be more productive. When you watch Mingo at his best, closing on a QB, he looks too good to pass up. Tennessee needs the pass-rush help, and Mingo could develop into a star.
PLAYER CARD
11Jonathan CooperSan Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 298POS: G
Analysis: I wasn't sure exactly where San Diego would go, but as I talked to people there and also went back to the tape myself, I was surprised at how urgent the interior line situation has become. The run-blocking in particular was a total mess, and it put too much pressure on the passing game. The passing game, of course, also suffered from inconsistent blocking. We'll see how free agency plays out, but I think the Chargers could be ready to focus on problems up front. Cooper fits the bill, can start immediately and should be able to upgrade this unit.
PLAYER CARD
12Cordarrelle Patterson *Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: TennesseeAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 205POS: WR
Analysis: This is where I projected Patterson the first time around, and I still like it. The question is whether Patterson will still be around this far down the board. The Dolphins need pass-catching help for Ryan Tannehill, mainly of the impact variety. They need a legit matchup problem. Patterson had just one year in the SEC after spending two years at the junior-college level, but he's got the skill set you want for a pick this high. Very good hands, he can beat cornerbacks with his height and strength, and he'll beat defenders for 50-50 balls. He can hurt you after the catch, and the value makes sense.
PLAYER CARD
13Manti Te'oTampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 255POS: LB
Analysis: For a pure interior linebacker, Te'o is still the best one on the board. I pushed Ogletree ahead of him based on versatility. I know there will still be questions on the off-the-field stuff, but for the most part Te'o is a known football commodity among NFL evaluators, and he's also considered a safe player to take for the specific goal of having him work inside or on the strongside at linebacker. Tampa Bay could take Te'o and go either way, but he'd represent an upgrade there, particularly on run defense. That said, this is also a LB who was second nationally in INTs, so he knows how to move in coverage as well.
PLAYER CARD
14Sheldon Richardson *Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: MissouriAGE: 21HT: 6-4WT: 295POS: DT
Analysis: With Luke Kuechly in place to shore up the linebacking corps, the Panthers should be looking up front; they need a talent upgrade on the defensive line. Richardson is just incredibly active, piling up tackles at a position where that's not easy to do. He's quick off the snap, shows great strength in short-yardage situations and uses his hands to get off blocks and make plays. The guy can even drop into coverage and will destroy screens. If Patterson is here, that's an option, and this could be a reach spot for a guy like Keenan Allen, but they should be thrilled with an impact DT.
PLAYER CARD
15Sharrif Floyd *New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 20HT: 6-3WT: 303POS: DT
Analysis: Few players finished the season on a higher note. Floyd was a star out of high school, and has moved around a bit on the defensive line. Because he has some decent pass-rushing skills, and a lot of quickness for his frame, Florida had him over the tackle and the benefit was clear. Floyd had great lower-body strength and can drive O-lineman into the pocket, but he also has powerful hands and moves well to disengage and come free. The Saints are desparate for help on the defensive line, and Floyd can provide balance, as a big, powerful pass-rusher who knows how to identify and use leverage against the run.
PLAYER CARD
16Lane JohnsonSt. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: OklahomaAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 303POS: OT
Analysis: The Rams can afford to go a few different ways here because they have that other first-round pick. I think the offensive line has to be a priority at one of these spots. Johnson is a steady tackle who upgrades the team on the right side immediately and has the ceiling of a very good NFL left tackle. He has the long arms you look for, gets into good position immediately and slides really easily to derail speed-rushers. The Rams have skill-position questions, and those could be answered here. But they need to block better, period, or it won't matter how much skill they have.
PLAYER CARD
17Ezekiel AnsahPittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
COLLEGE: BYUAGE: 23HT: 6-6WT: 272POS: LB
Analysis: Sticking with Ansah here. You hand an exceptional physical talent with a high ceiling but plenty of development required to Dick LeBeau. When that's the equation, where's the downside? What I think is particularly interesting about this situation is the idea that Ansah could ultimately work out as a 3-4 DE. Ansah might lack polish as a pass-rusher, but he has a lot of power both with raw strength and because he has such a burst, can rush with leverage and also utilize his quickness in one-on-one matchups. The Steelers must get younger on defense and, as I said before, Ansah makes sense given their track record of development.
PLAYER CARD
18Chance WarmackDallas Cowboys (8-8)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 320POS: G
Analysis: Follow my Big Board week to week and you're probably surprised I could fathom a situation where Warmack is still around at No. 18. But remember, the mock also takes into account where I hear teams are valuing guys, and in the case of a player like Warmack, the positional value aspect hurts him as a guard. Make no mistake, he's a stud, a dominant guard who makes your offensive line better the second he signs his contract. But he's staying inside, period, limiting his shot at the top 10. Dallas could certainly use an upgrade at guard, and I don't think the Cowboys can pass up Warmack at this spot on the board if he's available.
PLAYER CARD
19Zach Ertz *New York Giants (9-7)
COLLEGE: StanfordAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 252POS: TE
Analysis: The Giants got passable tight end play in 2012 from Martellus Bennett, but they could really use a more complete, dynamic player at the position. Bennett could be gone by April, for starters, and they really need to outfit Eli Manning with a difference-maker at the position. Ertz is a good one, a hands-catcher who can really move at over 250 pounds. Giants fans wondering about the ceiling on this kid should watch the Rose Bowl. He can beat teams up the seam, work the edges and use his size and strength to shield defenders and create matchup problems all over the field. He's ready to play now.
PLAYER CARD
20D.J. Fluker *Chicago Bears (10-6)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 335POS: OT
Analysis: A fourth-year junior, Fluker was allowed to participate at the Senior Bowl, and he took advantage. He has great size, and has extremely long arms he can use to move and frustrate pass-rushers. It's possible he was overlooked a little during the season because the level of play along the Bama offensive line was so good. I think when Marc Trestman starts rolling the tape on the Bears, he's going to see that the offensive line simply has to see a talent infusion. Fluker could be the best one the Bears have by the end of his rookie year.
PLAYER CARD
21Kenny VaccaroCincinnati Bengals (10-6)
COLLEGE: TexasAGE: 21HT: 6-1WT: 219POS: S
Analysis: This is just a big need spot for the Bengals. Reggie Nelson rated out pretty well for them, but the drop-off is significant from there. What you get in Vaccaro is a player who upgrades at either free or strong safety. Given Nelson's presence, Vaccaro should step in and be the Week 1 starter at strong safety. The Bengals need help at linebacker, and Vaccaro can actually offer that kind of presence, because he's a physical defender who can play in the box and defend the run effectively, or drop into coverage. He's a solid value here and fills a need.
PLAYER CARD
22Keenan Allen *St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: CaliforniaAGE: 20HT: 6-3WT: 210POS: WR
Analysis: The Rams lock down some blocking help, then get a wide receiver who can help them immediately. That would be a productive first round. It's possible I've worried too much about how well Allen will run, because aside from what should just be a pedestrian 40 time, he can do everything else well. He has a prototypical build, long enough to be taller than most corners, but lean and strong enough where his burst is very good, and quickness out of breaks isn't a question. His hands are very strong, and dependable, and he works back to the ball. A one-time safety, he has game smarts and helps his QB. Sam Bradford will benefit from his presence.
PLAYER CARD
23Sylvester WilliamsMinnesota Vikings (10-6)
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 24HT: 6-3WT: 315POS: DT
Analysis: Wide receiver is also a big need, but the Vikings might not be able to pass on great value if the board breaks this way. And consider what they have on the defensive line -- namely, a few age questions. By Week 1, Kevin Williams will be 33, Jared Allen 31 and Brian Robison 30. Basically, regardless of where they choose to find impact on the defensive line, it can be a useful commodity, and soon. In Williams, they get a player mature enough to contribute immediately. He gets down the line well and is solid against the run, but his burst off the snap can wreck pockets.
PLAYER CARD
24Johnthan BanksIndianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: Mississippi St.AGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 188POS: CB
Analysis: The Colts are in a range where they might get some phone calls for potential trades. I can imagine teams drafting early in the second round moving here to get a QB in a decent value range. If Indy stays, the Colts can go a few different ways. If they really like an O-lineman here, I think that's a smart play because they simply have to do more to protect the future of the franchise. But we know the defense could use help in a few places, and the chance to take the second-best CB in the draft is something that could make sense here. Banks can start early and help this defense.
PLAYER CARD
25Johnathan Hankins *Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
COLLEGE: Ohio St.AGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 335POS: DT
Analysis: Another good spot for someone to call and trade up. As for the pick, if Seattle wants a penetrator on the interior of the D-line, Hankins really isn't that guy. He doesn't have the burst to split gaps and create havoc behind the line of scrimmage. What he can do is occupy multiple blockers, help other rushers find space and better matchups and make the Seahawks more difficult to run against as he holds up blockers intent on getting a body in front of Seattle's tandem of great LBs in K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner. Hankins is an impact guy when his motor is running and will particularly make a run defense sturdier immediately.
PLAYER CARD
26Eddie Lacy *Green Bay Packers (11-5)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 22HT: 6-0WT: 219POS: RB
Analysis: I'll go a little bit out on a limb here, but I think by the time the NFL combine is over Lacy may be at the top of a number of draft boards at running back. And for a franchise that has lacked dynamic play at the position for way too long, Lacy could fill a need, allowing them to do more than simply "show" the run, but to gain some legitimate value out of it. Lacy has really good vision, balance and more shiftiness than many saw because the Bama O-line was so good at clearing a clean path. He has power to push the pile in short-yardage situations, and people will find he's an underrated catcher of the football. He's no lock here, but I like the fit at this early stage.
PLAYER CARD
27Quinton PattonHouston Texans (12-4)
COLLEGE: Louisiana TechAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 198POS: WR
Analysis: Houston needs to find another weapon for Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson will be 32 this summer, and if he's out of the lineup, the drop-off is significant. If you're a fan that hasn't seen anything from Patton, roll the tape from his game against Texas A&M. All he did to the Aggies was 21 catches, 233 yards and 4 TD catches. Simply put, Patton was really, really hard to cover in 2012, and when he went to the Senior Bowl against some of the top competition in the draft, he didn't get any easier to cover. Love the way he release from pressure, can set defenders up and work the sides or the middle of the field, using long arms to snatch the ball away from his body. A rising player meets a good fit.
PLAYER CARD
28Kawann ShortDenver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: PurdueAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 312POS: DT
Analysis: Right now Justin Bannan is listed atop the Denver depth chart at nose tackle, and Bannan is 33 with no guarantee of returning in 2013. Insert Short, who can use leverage and strength to eat up blockers, and also has a knack for using long arms to swat passes. The question with Short has been whether he can generate consistent impact play to play, but when he's at his best, he can really free up pass-rushers and linebackers. Denver could also give corner a look here, where a player like Xavier Rhodes could be available.
PLAYER CARD
29Matt Elam *New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 21HT: 5-11WT: 203POS: S
Analysis: What you get from Elam is versatility at safety. He's adept at sitting back and playing center field, using his speed and instincts to make plays in the passing game. But when it's called for, Elam can surface at the line of scrimmage and even attack the backfield. He's not a big safety, but gains in quickness and range what he lacks in size, and he simply isn't shy about taking on bigger ball-carriers, or lining up hits. New England might have found some solutions at corner, but the Patriots could use another safety, and Bill Belichick will find Elam's versatility useful.
PLAYER CARD
30Tyler Eifert *Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-6WT: 248POS: TE
Analysis: If all the begging pays off, and Tony Gonzalez does in fact return in 2013, the presence of Eifert would still be valuable. If Gonzalez is back, you add a player that can contribute immediately, who can be moved all over the formation and along with Julio Jones and Roddy White, cause matchup problems for defenses in multiple ways. If Gonzalez does come back, Eifert gets a year to learn from the master, and contribute plenty in the mean time. The Falcons do need help with the pass rush, but it would be hard to pass on Eifert at this spot with the presumption that Gonzalez is headed for retirement.
PLAYER CARD
31John JenkinsSan Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 358POS: DT
Analysis: The current construct of the Niners' roster really offers them a great chance to maximize value, and getting a player like Jenkins this far down the board would represent a lot of value. I also think San Francisco should be conscious of depth and age on the defensive line. We saw how diminished the pass rush was when Justin Smith wasn't healthy, and that's because Smith simply eats up blockers. Jenkins can do the same, though he's certainly no proxy for Smith. But at 359 pounds, he can really move.
PLAYER CARD
32Kevin Minter *Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 244POS: LB
Analysis: Word is the Ravens will be down an interior linebacker next season, and they should be thrilled if Minter is still around at this point. In fact, I can see Minter climbing higher, and maybe occupying the spot where Te'o goes, pushing Te'o down into this range. Minter is instinctive, shoots gaps, can play sideline to sideline and is particularly hard for blockers to line up. He's a steady tackler, and a good quarterback for your defense. The Ravens need a new one, finally.