Alright, ranting ahead. Will only be of interest to Lions fans and people who enjoy laughing at the Lions' various failures, you have been warned!
Today's topic: Martin Mayhew should be fired because the Eric Ebron draft pick is useless.
Thinking back on last season, I will ask what the major reason or reasons were for the utter collapse on the back half of the year. No, "it's the Lions" on its own does not count as a reason. Did it turn out that Tight End depth was our big downfall? Is that what got fans irate after every loss? I don't believe so. In fact with the emergence of undrafted free agent Joseph Fauria as a major red-zone target, I'd say that second tight end was rather low on the list of issues, the biggest of which being Stafford's inconsistencies throwing the ball, bone-headed turnovers, and a back seven that inspired more laughter from opposing offenses than the name Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. What does drafting Eric Ebron do to correct those largest issues? Oh, right, absolutely nothing at all.
Consider the investment of talent on the skill side of the offense now. I did this a few days ago, noting the draft selections that make up our core of "weapons" in what I would assume will be our most standard two-TE set:
- WR1: Calvin Johnson. First-round pick, 2nd overall
- WR2: Golden Tate. Second-round pick, 60th overall
- RB1: Reggie Bush. First-round pick, 2nd overall
- TE1: Brandon Pettigrew. First-round pick, 20th overall
- TE2: Eric Ebron. First-round pick, 10th overall
(For other sets you might get Ryan Broyles, a second-round pick, and Joique Bell or Fauria, outliers as UFAs)
Mother of God, what starting-caliber NFL quarterback wouldn't be able to make things happen with a group like that? Even someone who's average should have pretty potent numbers when gifted that sort of roster. Except...Matthew Stafford is not supposed to be an average QB. He was a first overall pick. That comes with an expectation to be among the best of the best, the elites of the NFL. And this is where my beef with Ebron comes in.
Stafford is (by his draft position and his contract size) supposed to be one of the best of the league. What is one of the common praises heaped onto the current best, though? The Brady, Brees, and Rodgers of the world are all spoken of as making the players around them better. Or at the very least, they're able to run servicable to damn good offenses using players that aren't necessarily picked up at the top of the heap. Brees has Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham, 7th and 3rd round picks, respectively. How many of Aaron Rodgers' weapons are first round picks at this point? Cobb wasn't, Nelson wasn't, Kuuuuuuhn? Eddie Lacy, alright, but he was only introduced this year and was concussed for part of it, didn't stop Green Bay from winning the division anyway.
My point with this is, if this year, Stafford under the new coaching staff finally did ascend to the level of his expectations and become a really good quarterback, would he really even need yet another first-round weapon in order to develop a great offense? You'd already have top-line talent with Megatron, Tate (the lead receiver on a Super Bowl team, mind), a first-round TE in Pettigrew who the staff thought enough of to resign, and then whatever else you feel like adding. Is it such a drastic improvement to have Ebron instead of, say, a TE picked up in the second or third round like many other teams did, or continue to develop Fauria and expand his toolset?
Alternatively, let's look at the bad-case scenario and say that Stafford doesn't show any tangible improvement on his personal ability. He's already had CJ, Pettigrew, Durham, and others as large-bodied targets that he's had troubles overthrowing or suffering with dropped passes. If that's the case and the staff thinks that maybe Stafford isn't progressing as well, perhaps it does make sense to draft a really sure-handed TE that can help alleviate that iss--oh, wait. Ebron had an 11% drop rate in college. Great help that is.
So, essentially, if Stafford turns the corner and becomes great, he wouldn't need a second first-round TE in order to develop a potent offense. If Stafford does not show marked improvement, I don't think that Ebron is so unstoppably amazing on his own that he won't fall victim to the same dropsies and overthrows that every other receiver on this team already deals with. Either way, Ebron's success is tied entirely into Stafford's performance, and if that's all he is, there is no reason to spend a top-10 draft pick on him.
To those who want to make the claim that "no, don't think of him as a second Tight End, he's more like a slot receiver!" I will respond with......no, fuck that. In that case, you spent a top ten pick on a slot receiver and essentially your third receiving option. Whether as a TE or a WR, Ebron is a waste here.
I've formally, finally turned my corner. Mayhew should absolutely be fired.