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NFL Offseason Thread |OT4| Cheaters Cheat.

Kastrioti

Persecution Complex
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cdyhybrid

Member
FO on cornerbacks in 2014 (warning: math)

Highlights:

It is a pretty close race at the top, but Darrelle Revis wins top honors. On top of having the highest adjusted success rate, Revis was also the least targeted of the No. 1 corners. Revis was targeted on just 17 percent of opponents' pass plays, and he gave up a successful play on 38 percent of his targets. Multiplying those together, we see that Revis gave up a successful play on only 6.5 percent of opponents' throws when he was a possible target. This number may do a pretty good job of identifying the consensus top corners in football. Chris Harris, who ranks third by adjusted success rate, comes second to Revis by that metric, surrendering a successful play on just 7.1 percent of opponents' pass plays. However, Harris' numbers may overrate him at least a little bit given his responsibilities in the Broncos' scheme compared to the responsibilities of Revis and Richard Sherman. Sherman, fifth by adjusted success rate, comes just behind Harris at 7.2 percent.

I extended this list to the top 15 corners to note the interesting replacement going on in Seattle. The Seahawks swapped out the corner ranked 15th in adjusted success rate (Byron Maxwell) for the one ranked 13th (Cary Williams). With Maxwell receiving 3.5 times more guaranteed money, the Williams contract looks like the much smarter deal. Williams allowed a much higher adjusted yards per pass, but he would likely look better on that account if he had been the one with Earl Thomas playing in support. On the other hand, these Williams stats demonstrate some of the inconsistency we've found with cornerback charting metrics. Until 2014, Williams had always ranked much better in yards per pass than in success rate. In FOA 2014, we joked that "Cary Williams has a large tract of land in front of him, and he would like to invite you to visit." Last year, his stats showed the exact opposite to be true, as Williams was more consistently successful but burned by deep throws.

Interesting. I'm a bit more excited about Cary Williams now.
 

squicken

Member
STL got EJ Gaines in the 6th round in 2014 and he's already a top 10 QB, making peanuts. But like Josh Norman, I'd attribute a lot of his success to the front 7. Janoris Jenkins is also so awful that there really wasn't much reason to not throw at him all the time

e:

@RavensInsider Rookie outside linebacker Za'Darius Smith intercepted a Matt Schaub pass and returned it for a touchdown

An angel gets its wings
 

Godslay

Banned
Broncos sign Ryan Harris T. Must have had him on hold.

Looks like Sambrilo is the LT now. They had Schofield over there yesterday.
 

Kastrioti

Persecution Complex
Not Pictured: Calvin Johnson, Larry Warford, DeAndre Levy, Stephen Tulloch, Ameer Abdullah, Riley Reiff, Theo Riddick, Tahir Whitehead, Glover Quinn, Kyle Van Noy, Travis Swanson, Corey Fuller, TJ Jones, Joique Bell, Eric Ebron, Haloti Ngata, Tyrunn Walker

We're stacked

Restore the Roar
 

Godslay

Banned
He might not have all the time in the world to throw this year, but I liked this blurb about Manning:

He looked strong and sharp Wednesday, whistling throws whether short, medium or long. He looked quick on his feet, too - save for the one tumble - and also appears to be in top condition, especially at 39.
 
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