http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9459928/which-losing-nfl-teams-poised-make-playoffs
Arguments in favor: Underperformed Pythagorean expectation, awful record in close games, faced difficult schedule, fumble recovery rate, turnover differential
Arguments against: Top-heavy team only one injury away from disaster, difficult division
The probable comeback crown belongs to the Lions, who have just about every statistical indicator tracking in their favor. Their 4-12 season saw them produce the point differential of a 6.5-win team while going 3-8 in one-touchdown games. They had the league's third-worst turnover margin at minus-16, likely owing to their defense recovering just six fumbles last year. (Their recovery rate of 32.6 percent was the second-worst in the league.) They've also dumped return man Stefan Logan, who muffed six times last year and somehow took a knee on the 4-yard line. Remember: Sometimes, competency is enough.
Detroit's a scary team to back because they're perpetually running a high-wire act. If one false move puts Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, or Ndamukong Suh on the sideline for any length of time, the team is basically toast. If those guys stay healthy, though, the baseline talent here should be enough to get the Lions past .500 and have them approach the playoffs for the second time in three seasons.