• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NFL Week 8 |OT| Take A Chill Pill

G

Godslay

Banned
youngwerther said:
Your defense did make the stops.
You gave up 4 turnovers and we only got, was it like 10 points off it? 13?

Peyton lost that game by playing like shit in the 1st quarter and throwing 3 INT.
Click to expand...

They needed one more stop to get the ball back at the end of the game. IRC Jones caught a pass to convert the first, when Rahim Moore didn't come up to meet him and make the tackle prior to the first down marker.

They did make stops earlier in the game, but that one critical stop didn't happen. Yes, Peyton played bad and dug the hole, but he also helped dig it out.

I'm not arguing that they didn't make the stops during that game, they just didn't get the one where they needed it to get the ball back.

In the Houston game, they seemed to be worried about Foster and didn't respect Schaub and got burned deep. They came back again, and missed a critical stop again when Johnson caught a pass to convert the first, right pass the outstretched arms of Champ. Denver ran out of time again with that conversion.

Get either one of those stops and hypothetically they are different games. It didn't happen, but they were one stop and a TD drive from winning both.
 
B

Bowser

Member
squicken said:
For free stats, the best place is pro-footbal reference

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

edit: Advanced football stats is another good place for free stuff. Also has analytic stuff if you care about that. Just came out with their "power rankings" and have Denver #1

http://www.advancednflstats.com/201...tml?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Click to expand...

Yeah, and they have Carolina at 12 (after having them at 6 last week). Not sure I'd trust those rankings.

Also:

Panthers LB Jon Beason likely heading to IR. Tells News 14's @MikeSolarte MRI may warrant season ending surgery.10:39pm - 23 Oct 12
Click to expand...

lol, $25m down the drain
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
brentech said:
Hell, it's barely usable regardless of what you're doing. Multi billion dollar business....runs like a geocities website.
Click to expand...

Thing is it used to run like a dream. Now I can't do simple things. I wanted to see who the sack leader was, couldn't figure out where to go through five minutes of clicking around. Awful.
 
S

squicken

Member
Bowser said:
Yeah, and they have Carolina at 12 (after having them at 6 last week). Not sure I'd trust those rankings.
Click to expand...

Yeah I'm not the biggest fan of the stat based power rankings, or really any power rankings. Football just doesn't have enough samples to really get accurate trends for a given season.

But I really like their game theory stuff, and historical success rates/game management. Fisher went for a RZ 4th and 2 against GB, the obvious right decision, and he got questioned about it several times during the week. It seems so strange that in a post-Moneyball era, mainstream football writers are so stuck to the old dogma of "take the points". You'd think they would have observed their baseball brethren's rapid irrelevancy, and would have made sure to avoid the same mistakes
 
C

Cagey

Banned
NFC South fucked if this crosses over to the NFL...

TacoBell-ScoreBoard-emailv2.jpg
Click to expand...
 
B

Buckethead

Banned
Despite being a huge Apple fan, I must concluded that the iPad Mini is tremendously overpriced.

That black slate back is sexy as shit though.

Ughhhhhrhrhhhh.
 
M

mastershake

Member
Buckethead said:
Despite being a huge Apple fan, I must concluded that the iPad Mini is tremendously overpriced.

That black slate back is sexy as shit though.

Ughhhhhrhrhhhh.
Click to expand...


I feel the same. Huge apple fan but its just too damn expensive. I don't mind paying the "Apple Tax" most of the time.

Gotta get me a Retina MBP(13") and new iMac though!

hnnnnng
 
E

Elfforkusu

Member
squicken said:
Yeah I'm not the biggest fan of the stat based power rankings, or really any power rankings. Football just doesn't have enough samples to really get accurate trends for a given season.

But I really like their game theory stuff, and historical success rates/game management. Fisher went for a RZ 4th and 2 against GB, the obvious right decision, and he got questioned about it several times during the week. It seems so strange that in a post-Moneyball era, mainstream football writers are so stuck to the old dogma of "take the points". You'd think they would have observed their baseball brethren's rapid irrelevancy, and would have made sure to avoid the same mistakes
Click to expand...
His Advanced Team Stats page is basically my no-BS NFL quick reference.
 
C

Cagey

Banned
squicken said:
Yeah I'm not the biggest fan of the stat based power rankings, or really any power rankings. Football just doesn't have enough samples to really get accurate trends for a given season.

But I really like their game theory stuff, and historical success rates/game management. Fisher went for a RZ 4th and 2 against GB, the obvious right decision, and he got questioned about it several times during the week. It seems so strange that in a post-Moneyball era, mainstream football writers are so stuck to the old dogma of "take the points". You'd think they would have observed their baseball brethren's rapid irrelevancy, and would have made sure to avoid the same mistakes
Click to expand...

On offense... QBs attempt 450-550 passes. RBs will carry a ball 200+ times. WRs will get targeted 100+ times. Linemen will block on all snaps.

It's just that the data is much harder to quantify and collect and organize.
 
B

Buckethead

Banned
mastershake said:
I feel the same. Huge apple fan but its just too damn expensive. I don't mind paying the "Apple Tax" most of the time.

Gotta get me a Retina MBP(13") and new iMac though!

hnnnnng
Click to expand...
Word.

I got a new iMac a couple years ago and I don't feel any need to upgrade.

The new ones are pretty sexy looking though.
 
E

Elfforkusu

Member
Cagey said:
On offense... QBs attempt 450-550 passes. RBs will carry a ball 200+ times. WRs will get targeted 100+ times. Linemen will block on all snaps.

It's just that the data is much harder to quantify and collect and organize.
Click to expand...
I'd argue it's entirely quantifiable with the right approach (basketball team defense suffers from similar problems, but that didn't stop Dean Oliver from figuring out how to quantify proper team stats), football's just a hard game to predict. Injuries, gameplans/matchups, playoff rulesets VS regular season, it all conspires to limit how much you can count on a team's performance to carry over from week to week.

And if the data is random, how do you tell when you're right?
 
S

squicken

Member
Cagey said:
On offense... QBs attempt 450-550 passes. RBs will carry a ball 200+ times. WRs will get targeted 100+ times. Linemen will block on all snaps.

It's just that the data is much harder to quantify and collect and organize.
Click to expand...

Injuries just hit football so much more than other sports. Lineman may block on every play, and not to be too much of a cajunator, but a team like STL has already used 9 different starting lineman. How do you measure their performance as a group when it constantly changes? How do I interpret offensive efficiency when 30% of the guys responsible for that number aren't on the active roster?

edit: I posted this earlier. Luck vs RG3.

http://t.co/JDvOGjPo

Some stats are useful. I'm really more speaking to "grades" and "efficiency" type things. There's just not a solid way to assign WAR to football players imo
 
T

Talon

Member
Not enough of a sample size and too many players/variables on a single play. 11-on-11 is much harder to quantify than 5-on-5 or 1-on-1.
 
E

exarkun

Member
Godslay said:
They needed one more stop to get the ball back at the end of the game. IRC Jones caught a pass to convert the first, when Rahim Moore didn't come up to meet him and make the tackle prior to the first down marker.

They did make stops earlier in the game, but that one critical stop didn't happen. Yes, Peyton played bad and dug the hole, but he also helped dig it out.

I'm not arguing that they didn't make the stops during that game, they just didn't get the one where they needed it to get the ball back.

In the Houston game, they seemed to be worried about Foster and didn't respect Schaub and got burned deep. They came back again, and missed a critical stop again when Johnson caught a pass to convert the first, right pass the outstretched arms of Champ. Denver ran out of time again with that conversion.

Get either one of those stops and hypothetically they are different games. It didn't happen, but they were one stop and a TD drive from winning both.
Click to expand...

You know Godslay, we were tapping dat ass for a loooong time until they started to come back. Too little too late. I don't think if you get the stop its a different game cause...we were so much better than Pey Pey that game. In all fairness, he was still feeling things out. Now if they play, I think it would be closer but that game was not something the Broncos could win.

We let off the gas. I'm glad you did come back, I hope that taught them a lesson about that. Which I think they learned with the way they continued to rip the ravens a new one even after being up 10, 13, 20, 23, and 30. So thanks!
 
M

mr2xxx

Banned
squicken said:
Injuries just hit football so much more than other sports. Lineman may block on every play, and not to be too much of a cajunator, but a team like STL has already used 9 different starting lineman. How do you measure their performance as a group when it constantly changes? How do I interpret offensive efficiency when 30% of the guys responsible for that number aren't on the active roster?

edit: I posted this earlier. Luck vs RG3.

http://t.co/JDvOGjPo

Some stats are useful. I'm really more speaking to "grades" and "efficiency" type things. There's just not a solid way to assign WAR to football players imo
Click to expand...

Football just has so many variables with so many players on the field in 3 seperate phases of the game. I mean how the hell can anyone predict a Kyle Williams playoff performance, an injury of a key player, a tipped pass for a pick 6. Plays like this are uncommon but every now and they come in bunches. Baseball is easy to predict because every player is on an island and individual performance is easy to dissect. Football on the other hand, you have no idea what play was called so sometimes the wrong player gets attributed with the mistake. Overall just so many moving parts that you have to take things with a grain of salt, it is fun to try to dissect and backseat GM/Coach.

On another note did ESPN ever reveal how exactly they calculate their QBR because there is no way in hell that Luck is a better runner than RG3, that is ludicrous.
 
S

squicken

Member
mr2xxx said:
On another note did ESPN ever reveal how exactly they calculate their QBR because there is no way in hell that Luck is a better runner than RG3, that is ludicrous.
Click to expand...

Their formula is proprietary. They tell you the components, but not how they are weighted. Or what exactly is an action play. It's poop and best ignored imo

But there is an interesting quirk to the Luck vs Griffin debate as far as runners. From the NYT's piece

Luck has only 18 true carries this season, with 2 of his 20 carries coming on kneel-downs. Luck doesn’t run very often, choosing his spots carefully. Despite only 18 true rushes, Luck has 10 first-down runs on scrambles, most in the league (Griffin and Michael Vick each have nine). Seven of those 10 have come on third down; no other quarterback more than 4 scrambles for 1st downs on 3rd down this year. Over all, 12 of his 18 runs have gone for first downs, while Griffin has gained first downs on only 41 percent of his 61 runs (excluding kneel-downs).

Another reason Griffin’s rushing value is depressed in ESPN’s system is that he has five fumbles on rushing plays this season and has only recovered one (his teammates have recovered two). Luck has yet to fumble on a running play this year. Add it all up, and Luck has a near-perfect rating of 99.8 on runs this season, while Griffin has an impressive but less stellar 78.8 rating.
Click to expand...

It's sort of what do you want from your QB? To me, I want what Luck does. Run for first downs and extend plays. I have running backs to get blasted by LBs. I think Griffin will change his style, and he's a good enough passer to be great still. Young and Elway ran less as they got more comfortable throwing
 
M

mr2xxx

Banned
squicken said:
Their formula is proprietary. They tell you the components, but not how they are weighted. Or what exactly is an action play. It's poop and best ignored imo

But there is an interesting quirk to the Luck vs Griffin debate as far as runners. From the NYT's piece



It's sort of what do you want from your QB? To me, I want what Luck does. Run for first downs and extend plays. I have running backs to get blasted by LBs. I think Griffin will change his style, and he's a good enough passer to be great still. Young and Elway ran less as they got more comfortable throwing
Click to expand...

It doesn't really tell the story though, for Vick and RG3 you need to have guys spying on them and accounting for their run ability. It's similar to a D-End that is constantly double teamed who might have less sacks than the other guy who is one on one. Who is really better in that scenario? That's the issue with these stats since they never fully take everything into account. Then you have sack EPA and penalty EPA that I doubt has much to do with the QB at all, and somehow Eli beats Peyton in every category but he still comes in second to his brother, yeah QBR makes little sense.
 
A

ari

Banned
Bowser said:
The problem was the PS3 didn't have the killer app or software at the onset to justify the $599 price. But Apple offers the largest and most diverse app universe out there currently. I've seen many people say they love their Nexus 7's but what's lacking is what matters most - the apps.
Click to expand...
What apps is so exclusive that the nexus can't be justified? I really need to know. Absolutely nothing I see should drive people away from the android market. Please don't say games because I am not going to take you serious.
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
Problem with the PS3 was that it was overpriced. Nobody but idiots wanted to pay 600 dollars for a Blu-Ray player, and the 360 was doing everything the PS3 was for 200 dollars less. There was often no tangible difference between the two and when there was it was usually in the 360's favor.

This iPad Mini looks to be the same. The App Store will always be a feather in Apple's cap, but that advantage is diminishing by the day.
 
S

squicken

Member
I'm listening to Simmons podcast with his buddy from DC, and all the Chocolate City stuff, and it's such a big media market and the Skins are such a national team that have the sympathies of national media.

The Rams should have never traded RG3 there. They'll here about it forever. If they would have traded him to CLE, even if he was just as good, there'd be 10% of the attention. It's really a lesson in media management. I still like the trade, but what a screw up sending him there.

If he ends up staying healthy, then Fisher and Snead are the guys who traded away a franchise QB for 4 picks, one of which they've already blown
 
M

mr2xxx

Banned
squicken said:
I'm listening to Simmons podcast with his buddy from DC, and all the Chocolate City stuff, and it's such a big media market and the Skins are such a national team that have the sympathies of national media.

The Rams should have never traded RG3 there. They'll here about it forever. If they would have traded him to CLE, even if he was just as good, there'd be 10% of the attention. It's really a lesson in media management. I still like the trade, but what a screw up sending him there.

If he ends up staying healthy, then Fisher and Snead are the guys who traded away a franchise QB for 4 picks, one of which they've already blown
Click to expand...


I'm surprised your surprised about this fact. Redskins have been in the top 3 in revenue since forever and that has been with a bad team just like Dallas. What did you expect when they actually got good? Expect to see a lot of RG3 jerseys wherever you live if they start reaching the playoffs cuz the bandwagon is getting prepared.
 
S

squicken

Member
I just didn't think about the media angle. I viewed it from get the most value in picks. My irritation comes from people not understanding the situation in STL and why they could never draft him. If they hit their picks then it will be fine, but so far they've showed poor in their talent evaluations
 
E

eznark

Banned
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

NFL SUPER Wildcard Weekend |OT| The most super of wildcards, folks
2
70
4K
West Texas CEO replied
  • Poll
2021 NFL Season | OT | "Some of those blokes are giving 110, 120%"
|OT| Social News 27 28 29 30 31
2K
74K
Smiggs replied
NFL 2017 Week 7 |OT| Kraft Money Rules Everything Around Me
40 41 42 43 44
2K
125K
WizardofPeace replied
NFL 2017 Week 6 |OT| Fulfill Your Destiny
104 105 106 107 108
5K
223K
gutshot replied
NFL 2016 Week 11 |OT| - football
93 94 95 96 97
5K
179K
Greg replied
Top Bottom