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NFL Week 8 |OT| Take A Chill Pill

squicken

Member
Interesting (to me ) stats on GB. Jordy Nelson has an average target depth of 12.5 yards. Randall Cobb on the other hand has an average target depth of 6.1 yards. The only WR of consequence with a lower aDOT is Percy Harvin, at 4.5. I've already gone over Harvin's remarkable YAC numbers.

But further info, Harvin averages 8.3 YAC per catch, and Cobb 6.2. Nelson gets 4.1 YAC per catch. James Jones has an aDOT of 12.2, and 3.2 YAC per reception.

So it applies to GB b/c I started to think, well, Rodgers throws such and accurate ball that it lets his WRs accrue YAC b/c they don't have to break stride. But it doesn't really work that way. The guys who get the most YAC per reception are the guys who can just make people miss.

Once you set the number of receptions to at least 25 you have a leaderboard of guys from different teams with different levels of QB play. Antonio Brown, Cobb, Harvin, D. Thomas, A Hawkins, Welker, and Nate Washington in no particular order. 4 w/good QBs, and 3 w/meh QBs. Eli's guys, even Cruz with that long catch and run, don't pile on YAC per reception (Cruz 7.7 YPT, 4.2 YAC per reception, and 11.3 aDOT)

So if you are still reading, and haven't passed over this to see which QB has a new girlfriend or haircut, what is the harder type of WR to find. The Jordy Nelson guy, or the Randall Cobb guy? Overall, Nelson gets 9.3 Yards per Target, and Cobb is at 10.1, Jones 6.9. For me, I was very envious of those short passes to Cobb on 3rd down where he was able to pick up the first down by making people miss. With Nelson, I think he's great too, but I felt like it would be easier to go find his replacement

.
 
Some farly candid stuff from Eli about his early career and the current view he has of his receivers. None too suprising to Giants fans who followed Eli early on and some of stuff Shockey and some others were saying at the time.

Manning was talking about his play-no-favorites approach with Victor Cruz and friends when he was asked if he'd always been such an equal-opportunity distributor of the ball.

"Early on," Eli answered, "we probably had receivers where in practice you try to force it to get them balls so they don't get down, or you keep them happy, and I think you create bad habits doing that.

"And so as I got older and we got younger, new guys in, you evolve to doing it the correct way. And it's going through the reads, saying you've got to earn the right to get open, and it's all based on the coverage and the reads. I've got to do that to make sure I'm doing the right things and not doing bad habits."

No doubt he's talking about Plax, Tiki and Shockey (moreso Shockey).

Just as Cruz was done Wednesday explaining how his quarterback's belief in him was just what an undrafted longshot needed "to settle down in this offense and on this team and find a niche," Manning revealed how he built trust with Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and the rest. He said he told them the following:

"I don't have favorites. I'm not going to force it to one guy. I've got a read in the progression. If you want to know what my progression is, I'll be happy to tell you, and I'm going to stick to that. And if you're my first read, it's your job to get open. And if you're not (open), then I'm going on to the next guy."
 

squicken

Member
How dare you degrade a white wr?

It weird how many guys who you would have listed as top WRs before the season are having off years. Megatron, Fitz, AJ Green, Andre Johnson, for various reasons, aren't doing so great. From a numbers perspective Antonio Brown is going nuts. In the non-QB bracket for player of the year, Harvin is right there with JJ Watt imo. The things those two guys are doing are nuts

My personal theory on the WRs is that the league is just letting DBs hold and chuck with abandon, and it's hurting the guys who rely on route running. It can't be called cheating if it's basically part of the game now, so guys who can catch and run have more value
 
For the love of god if you must, get the classic logo.

301.gif


Or the newer one that had the black outline.



This logo is so superior.
The look on his face is one of stunned disbelief.
It's the perfect symbol for our team.
 
Some farly candid stuff from Eli about his early career and the current view he has of his receivers. None too suprising to Giants fans who followed Eli early on and some of stuff Shockey and some others were saying at the time.



No doubt he's talking about Plax, Tiki and Shockey (moreso Shockey).

Welcome to QB 101, Eli.
 

Draxal

Member
Some farly candid stuff from Eli about his early career and the current view he has of his receivers. None too suprising to Giants fans who followed Eli early on and some of stuff Shockey and some others were saying at the time.



No doubt he's talking about Plax, Tiki and Shockey (moreso Shockey).

Ayup, and the personal anecdotes that I've heard about Shockey, from people who met him support this theory 100%.
 

LevelNth

Banned
It weird how many guys who you would have listed as top WRs before the season are having off years. Megatron, Fitz, AJ Green, Andre Johnson, for various reasons, aren't doing so great. From a numbers perspective Antonio Brown is going nuts. In the non-QB bracket for player of the year, Harvin is right there with JJ Watt imo. The things those two guys are doing are nuts

My personal theory on the WRs is that the league is just letting DBs hold and chuck with abandon, and it's hurting the guys who rely on route running. It can't be called cheating if it's basically part of the game now, so guys who can catch and run have more value
Huh?

Calvin is 5th in passing yards, 2nd in YPC with receivers over 30 receptions, and 2nd in YPG.

AJ is 3rd in yards, 7th in YPG and tied for the league lead in touchdowns.

Here's their projected totals for the season:

Calvin: 101 rec, 1580 yards, 3 TDs
AJ: 100 rec, 1450 yards, 16 TDs

Outside Megatron's TD passes, those are stellar seasons.
 
Huh?

Calvin is 5th in passing yards, 2nd in YPC with receivers over 30 receptions, and 2nd in YPG.

AJ is 3rd in yards, 7th in YPG and tied for the league lead in touchdowns.

Here's their projected totals for the season:

Calvin: 101 rec, 1580 yards, 3 TDs
AJ: 100 rec, 1450 yards, 16 TDs

Outside Megatron's TD passes, those are stellar seasons.

Megatron had sixteen TDs last year. However you want to slice it that's a huge drop,

Though I will say I have to disagree with putting him in that list. Megatron is having a down year because his QB sucks.
 

Nori Chan

Member
Does anyone know how preordering a game on Amazon works?

Does it charge you the day off release? Or do you pay it up front? Cause I ordered the LE of AC3 and it still hasn't charged me yet. Just wanted to make sure it wasn't a freak incident.
 

LevelNth

Banned
Megatron had sixteen TDs last year. However you want to slice it that's a huge drop,

Though I will say I have to disagree with putting him in that list. Megatron is having a down year because his QB sucks.
My point is TD projections are too fickle at only 6 games played. If his next two games he catches two a piece (very possible), all of a sudden projects to 10 for the year. A drop yes, but nothing outrageous.

Averaging 1 a game is not exactly easily done season after season.
 
.

Jordy is absolutely easier to replace, imo. This is also why I want Jennings to re-sign.
But our offense is fine without Jennings these past few weeks and Rodgers has been even better in his absence (not necessarily related of course) . We have so much depth and talent that really no one is irreplaceable IMO. Each week Jennings is out and Rodgers lights it up he reduces his bargaining power, at least with the Packers. Some team will over pay for him. He's injured too often to be worth top dollar at this point IMO especially for our team.
Does anyone know how preordering a game on Amazon works?

Does it charge you the day off release? Or do you pay it up front? Cause I ordered the LE of AC3 and it still hasn't charged me yet. Just wanted to make sure it wasn't a freak incident.
Amazon waits until it ships
 

chuckddd

Fear of a GAF Planet
I figured out Verlander's problem. It's his pregame meal! Three crunchy taco supremes (no tomato), a cheesy gordita crunch and and a Mexican pizza (no tomato). Freeman would be proud.

Does anyone know how preordering a game on Amazon works?

Does it charge you the day off release? Or do you pay it up front? Cause I ordered the LE of AC3 and it still hasn't charged me yet. Just wanted to make sure it wasn't a freak incident.

They charge you when they send it.
 

squicken

Member
Huh?

Calvin is 5th in passing yards, 2nd in YPC with receivers over 30 receptions, and 2nd in YPG.

AJ is 3rd in yards, 7th in YPG and tied for the league lead in touchdowns.

Here's their projected totals for the season:

Calvin: 101 rec, 1580 yards, 3 TDs
AJ: 100 rec, 1450 yards, 16 TDs

Outside Megatron's TD passes, those are stellar seasons.

Thanks! I didn't really look at the numbers that way, but it certainly does show they are still productive. I probably got a little to locked in at looking at other stuff and ignore the sheer production they are having

The thing is, both of those guys have middling catch rates. AJ Green 63%, CJ at 57%. Roddy White is at 71% and Nelson at 74%. YPT for Green and CJ are 8.7 and 8.8. White and Nelson 10.4 and 9.3. Green and CJ are getting numbers, but it's taking more targets than last year
 

brentech

Member
But our offense is fine without Jennings these past few weeks and Rodgers has been even better in his absence (not necessarily related of course) . We have so much depth and talent that really no one is irreplaceable IMO. Each week Jennings is out and Rodgers lights it up he reduces his bargaining power, at least with the Packers. Some team will over pay for him. He's injured too often to be worth top dollar at this point IMO especially for our team.

Amazon waits until it ships
Jennings first few years looked like he'd be a little injury prone, but then he made a good run the last few years and stayed "healthy" for a guy that caught so much. Missed a few games last year and now this.... Would like to have him stay with the team but at this point I don't know how much it actually matters.

At first it seemed like any time Jordy had to play the #1 WR role it didn't work out for the team, but he seems to be turning it around and maybe adapting his game from the #2 or slot game he had been playing in years past. Now you see Jones having a bigger year than normal because he's in Jordy's old role and it seems Rodgers likes to go there against lesser DBs.
 

squicken

Member
I'd rather have a Cobb.

One of the key plays that game, not that the Rams were ever going to win, was his 3rd down conversion after STL had scored to make it 20-13. Short pass to Cobb, he makes Dunbar whiff, and picks up the first down by beating rest of defense to the marker. Meanwhile Kendricks can't figure out when to run a corner or out. He's essentially a 6th lineman

edit:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/25/snapshot-play-action-passing/

PFF on PA passing and QBs. Alex Smith has the biggest YPA differential on PA passes vs non-PA passes

Does he also not understand where to line up on a regular basis. Could be a relatively of HoFinley.

He's kind of stuck. The Rams OL is bad and they need him to help pass block. He almost always chips before releasing, or delays his release. His problems are that he has a poor catch radius. He can't catch anything outside his frame b/c he doesn't have good hands. He also just isn't as athletic as they thought he would be. Not someone who is a mismatch for LBs in coverage
 

Greg

Member
One of the key plays that game, not that the Rams were ever going to win, was his 3rd down conversion after STL had scored to make it 20-13. Short pass to Cobb, he makes Dunbar whiff, and picks up the first down by beating rest of defense to the marker. Meanwhile Kendricks can't figure out when to run a corner or out. He's essentially a 6th lineman

edit:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/25/snapshot-play-action-passing/

PFF on PA passing and QBs. Alex Smith has the biggest YPA differential on PA passes vs non-PA passes
yeah, was that the 3rd and 10?

I just love versatile players like him that can work in space or just abuse people with their speed. Not to slight what Jordy has become, but seeing how Jones is producing makes me place more of the credit on Rodgers considering Jordy had that kind of year when Jennings was healthy.
 

eznark

Banned
Fuck yeah. Losing Jennings and losing Woodson a year of schedule and still being easily the best team in football?

Sweeeeeeeet!
 

squicken

Member
Cam Newton has a completion percentage that is 23% higher when throwing off play action. Seems like a no brainer to ditch the read open for a bit and run that.
 

eznark

Banned
Just kind of glancing on my phone but noticed the post about length of passes. Cobb has lined up in cobra like 40 snaps this year and is running a lot if quick outs, bubble screens and circles (like the one he got the first down on) out of the backfield. He isn't getting targeted downfield because he isn't running a lot of downfield routes. It's not rocket science.
 
Having the surgery ends his year, what's the rush if there are potentially other viable options?

Either he rests it, plays on it or gets the surgery. It's not like he's playing on it; i'd just assume that if the injury is severe enough for surgery he'd get it over and done with.
 
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