There's too many good goalies out there now...
There's not going to be many places for luongo to land, really.
San Jose, Phoenix (pending mike smith), Philadelphia, New Jersey, Calgary, Edmonton and Detroit. Calgary and San Jose likely decline, phoenix likely can't afford him. Vancouver won't trade to Edmonton (or Calgary)... Philly is fucked with that Bryz contract. So my money is on luongo landing in Detroit or New Jersey. Considering his age, Detroit will be all over it.
This is assuming reimer, markstrom keep up their play and bishop actually works out for Tampa.