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NHL December 2016 |OT| Best Christmas Since '93

Pikma

Banned
where's new pikma?
Shit, looks like this remaster needs a couple patches...

I meant to tell you that we are entitled to have our own opinions and the fact that you like something that I don't is ok because there's absolutely nothing wrong about diversity, in fact diversity is great 😊😊😊😊
 

Cake Boss

Banned
But he's your best player outside of Karlsson.

Choowie pls, stick to assessing what size of underwear Mathews pancake ass can fit in, so you can grab yourself a pair at The Bay, and take them hope to smell and jerk off in your neighbor's backyard, before the police gets called on you or when you bust nut.
 

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
Choowie pls, stick to assessing what size of underwear Mathews pancake ass can fit in, so you can grab yourself a pair at The Bay, and take them hope to smell and jerk off in your neighbor's backyard, before the police gets called on you or when you bust nut.

Damn Cockboss got out of bed with some passion this morning
 

Marvie_3

Banned
Yesterday some piece of shit forced my car open and stole my backpack

The backpack that had followed me all over the world for the past 8 years...

Motherfuckers
My backpack is on its last legs. Ive had it for 12+ years. I can only sew it back together so many times. :(


Also way to skip our date last night, butthead.
 

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
it's amazing how successful the rangers have been over the last 10 years with Girardi being so bad for so long, while playing a prominent role most of the time

It's almost as if Corsi isn't everything.

Girardi's CF% so far this year is almost identical to last year, but actually watching him there's a marked improvement in his game compared to last season in most areas. He's clearly a different player compared to what he was last year (which was super bad).
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
And then said that they are going to keep him 😒

They better expose him, otherwise Dorion is going on my shit list. Vegas taking that albatross of a contract might be the only way we can get rid of it. And the added side benefit would be that we keep Methot.
 

zroid

Banned
It's almost as if Corsi isn't everything.

Girardi's CF% so far this year is almost identical to last year, but actually watching him there's a marked improvement in his game compared to last season in most areas. He's clearly a different player compared to what he was last year (which was super bad).

ehhh it's not everything but when it's as bad as it's been throughout his career, it's a heck of a lot

idk about what you're seeing, but i don't consider that to be evidence of much tbh. overall the Rangers have been good this year though.
 

imBask

Banned
ehhh it's not everything but when it's as bad as it's been throughout his career, it's a heck of a lot

idk about what you're seeing, but i don't consider that to be evidence of much tbh. overall the Rangers have been good this year though.

maybe you should look into his other stats to try and find why he looks better and why he's always in a prominent role despite his corsi

you keep posting about outliers and stating that they shouldn't be where they're at, making corsi look like trash

EDIT: don't mean any of it in an offensive way I love your stupid corsi stats
 

zroid

Banned
you're gonna want one of these Dubbed

https://t.co/lS55FXAewe
CysjGIOVQAAxQU-.jpg
 

Red_Man

I Was There! Official L Receiver 2/12/2016
Weber being a legitimate Norris favourite right now after all the slag that was thrown after the trade, including from some from myself, is hilarious. Same with the fact he's on pace to crush his career high in points on a team coached by Therrien.
 

imBask

Banned
Weber being a legitimate Norris favourite right now after all the slag that was thrown after the trade, including from some from myself, is hilarious. Same with the fact he's on pace to crush his career high in points on a team coached by Therrien.

nah dawg he's done. He's a second behind everyone. His corsi is bad. Josi was the only reason he looked good. Have you seen his last playoff game last year? He's slower than Markov
 

zroid

Banned
maybe you should look into his other stats to try and find why he looks better and why he's always in a prominent role despite his corsi

you keep posting about outliers and stating that they shouldn't be where they're at, making corsi look like trash

EDIT: don't mean any of it in an offensive way I love your stupid corsi stats

Appreciate the input, but your misconception is that I would believe something is true without looking at the entire spectrum of evidence, which is not the case.
 

Red_Man

I Was There! Official L Receiver 2/12/2016
I still wouldn't do the trade if given the chance to go back, but it's impossible to be disappointed in Weber's play so far. He's also one of the main reasons we have a top 5 PP again, which has been a huge reason for the teams success so far.
 

imBask

Banned
Appreciate the input, but your misconception is that I would believe something is true without looking at the entire spectrum of evidence, which is not the case.

TELL US YOUR SECRETS THEN GOD DAMNIT ZROID

why is Girardi ok?
why is Weber good?
Will Cake Boss accept the fact that Weber is going to beat Karlsson?
 
It's almost as if Corsi isn't everything.

Girardi's CF% so far this year is almost identical to last year, but actually watching him there's a marked improvement in his game compared to last season in most areas. He's clearly a different player compared to what he was last year (which was super bad).

He's been decent on the third pairing but bad when playing first pairing minutes with McDonagh from what I've seen.
 

zroid

Banned
I still wouldn't do the trade if given the chance to go back, but it's impossible to be disappointed in Weber's play so far. He's also one of the main reasons we have a top 5 PP again, which has been a huge reason for the teams success so far.
His offensive production has been so much better than anyone could have expected. Blink and he's got another goal.

He's been decent on the third pairing but bad when playing first pairing minutes with McDonagh from what I've seen.

aka Matt Hunwick. although Hunwick has been brutal even on the 3rd pairing these days.

I just think he's declined significantly. he ain't young.
 

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
ehhh it's not everything but when it's as bad as it's been throughout his career, it's a heck of a lot

idk about what you're seeing, but i don't consider that to be evidence of much tbh. overall the Rangers have been good this year though.

I don't have any actual numbers, but I bet if somebody could crunch the numbers on high danger chances the Rangers have given up this season compared to last, they'd be way down. The Rangers get beaten in the possession battle pretty routinely these days (as you can see in Girardi's numbers and probably most/all of the rest of the defense's, for that matter), but a pretty hefty volume of it seems to be from the outside and poor angles. Last season it was basically a party for opposing teams in the slot and around the crease.

One of the big problems for the Rangers as it relates to the defensemen and possession is that they rely too much on long breakout and cross-ice passes to set up their transition game, and Girardi is as guilty of that as anybody (in fact probably more so, as he's not as good at it as McDonagh, Skjei, Holden, Clendening, or even Staal). They're not great at building through short, efficient passes out of the back end. That means that when they are successful at breaking out they can turn it into a very dangerous opportunity very quickly, and that results in their disproportionately high percentage of high quality scoring chances and at least in part in their obscenely high shooting percentage, but it also means that the success rate of achieving that breakout in the first place is much lower that it would otherwise be with a better puck moving defensive corps. And when that transition does fail, the puck goes right back into the Rangers' zone with one pass.

This has become a bigger and bigger problem recently as more and more teams seem to be figuring out how to clog the neutral zone to prevent the Rangers' fast transition from getting through. If you take that away from the Rangers, you're going to have them pinned down in the defensive zone for practically as long as you'd like. Good chance you'll be seeing that again tomorrow out of the Hurricanes, who have been among the best at short circuiting the Rangers' offense so far this year, even if we did manage to beat them on Tuesday thanks to Rick Nash activating X-Factor.


EDIT: I should also make it clear that "better than last year" is still a very relative term. He was dog shit last year. With a broken knee. So if he wasn't at least a tiny bit better this year it would have been time to retire. :D
 

Kave_Man

come in my shame circle
Choowie pls, stick to assessing what size of underwear Mathews pancake ass can fit in, so you can grab yourself a pair at The Bay, and take them hope to smell and jerk off in your neighbor's backyard, before the police gets called on you or when you bust nut.

I laugh and accept all your other jokes but I will not tolerate this!

TAKE IT BACK CAKE BOSS! Matthews does not have a pancake ass!

I'll fight you!

I'LL FIGHT YOUUU!!!
 

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Ah, and as if on cue, here's a tweet with stats that sort of encapsulate part of what I was just talking about regarding the Rangers' transition game, at least some of the positive aspects (aside from overall possession).

Mike Kelly Verified account @MikeKellyNHL

NYR:
Shot attempt differential (-180), 29th
Shots from slot / game (10.7), 5th
Inner slot / game (5.7), 3rd
Goal differential (+28), 1st
 

zroid

Banned
I don't have any actual numbers, but I bet if somebody could crunch the numbers on high danger chances the Rangers have given up this season compared to last, they'd be way down. The Rangers get beaten in the possession battle pretty routinely these days (as you can see in Girardi's numbers and probably most/all of the rest of the defense's, for that matter), but a pretty hefty volume of it seems to be from the outside and poor angles. Last season it was basically a party for opposing teams in the slot and around the crease.

One of the big problems for the Rangers as it relates to the defensemen and possession is that they rely too much on long breakout and cross-ice passes to set up their transition game, and Girardi is as guilty of that as anybody (in fact probably more so, as he's not as good at it as McDonagh, Skjei, Holden, Clendening, or even Staal). They're not great at building through short, efficient passes out of the back end. That means that when they are successful at breaking out they can turn it into a very dangerous opportunity very quickly, and that results in their disproportionately high percentage of high quality scoring chances and at least in part in their obscenely high shooting percentage, but it also means that the success rate of achieving that breakout in the first place is much lower that it would otherwise be with a better puck moving defensive corps. And when that transition does fail, the puck goes right back into the Rangers' zone with one pass.

This has become a bigger and bigger problem recently as more and more teams seem to be figuring out how to clog the neutral zone to prevent the Rangers' fast transition from getting through. If you take that away from the Rangers, you're going to have them pinned down in the defensive zone for practically as long as you'd like. Good chance you'll be seeing that again tomorrow out of the Hurricanes, who have been among the best at short circuiting the Rangers' offense so far this year, even if we did manage to beat them on Tuesday thanks to Rick Nash activating X-Factor.


EDIT: I should also make it clear that "better than last year" is still a very relative term. He was dog shit last year. With a broken knee. So if he wasn't at least a tiny bit better this year it would have been time to retire. :D

I thought the Rangers were doing pretty well in the possession battle early on, but I guess that has regressed lately. Their xG% is still pretty solid which you can probably chalk up to high danger chances. By regular scoring chance % they also rate very well. One of the theories about why they have consistently shot a high percentage for so long, is their disproportionate reliance on forwards to transition the puck and generate offence, which I think you basically confirmed from your observations. Top 6 forwards often shoot over 10%, and you could say the Rangers have like 9 of them. Team shooting % tends to be suppressed by cycle shots from the points, which are usually important for sustaining zone pressure (thus leading to more corsi events and scoring chances for overall), but I have read stuff about how in the Rangers' system they don't do this as much, and they've been especially successful at it probably because of the forward depth.

As for Girardi, his Rel xGF% is -1.5 which isn't as bad as I think you'd expect. I like xG a lot although I think it should be applied with caution since you can fall into a trap where you place too much value on keeping shots "to the outside". The actual objective in the D-zone isn't to do that so much as getting back the puck and not allowing any shots.

I mentioned a while ago that I think the Rangers might be one of the more intriguing examples of a team that succeeds without having a strong D corps. The common mantra among "experts" is you need D first and foremost to be successful in the NHL, but I'm not so sure that's the case.
 

zroid

Banned
Speaking of xG, this is a pretty cool graphic I just saw

The lines represent the change in a team's xGF per 60 from 2015-16 to 2016-17. The left side of the graphic are teams who have improved by this metric (ascending lines), and the right side is teams who have gotten worse (descending lines).

1617Combined_per60.png


RIP Pikma
 

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
I thought the Rangers were doing pretty well in the possession battle early on, but I guess that has regressed lately. Their xG% is still pretty solid which you can probably chalk up to high danger chances. By regular scoring chance % they also rate very well. One of the theories about why they have consistently shot a high percentage for so long, is their disproportionate reliance on forwards to transition the puck and generate offence, which I think you basically confirmed from your observations. Top 6 forwards often shoot over 10%, and you could say the Rangers have like 9 of them. Team shooting % tends to be suppressed by cycle shots from the points, which are usually important for sustaining zone pressure (thus leading to more corsi events and scoring chances for overall), but I have read stuff about how in the Rangers' system they don't do this as much, and they've been especially successful at it probably because of the forward depth.

As for Girardi, his Rel xGF% is -1.5 which isn't as bad as I think you'd expect. I like xG a lot although I think it should be applied with caution since you can fall into a trap where you place too much value on keeping shots "to the outside". The actual objective in the D-zone isn't to do that so much as getting back the puck and not allowing any shots.

I mentioned a while ago that I think the Rangers might be one of the more intriguing examples of a team that succeeds without having a strong D corps. The common mantra among "experts" is you need D first and foremost to be successful in the NHL, but I'm not so sure that's the case.

Yeah, the Rangers were doing really well in possession back in October. That went away in November, and I would guess that probably had more to do with injuries and other teams just generally starting to get their shit together (the Rangers came right out of the gate with amazing chemistry this year, and it was obvious a lot of teams just didn't have it yet), however you want to quantify that.

And yes, the Rangers use their forwards extensively to pressure the puck in the neutral zone, backcheck, and generate the transition. A common exit tactic for them might be something like "Skjei short pass to Hayes in the D zone, Hayes long outlet to Miller breaking through the neutral zone." If you look at that Rick Nash goal against Carolina on Tuesday, you'll see it's a defensive play by Kevin Hayes at the Rangers blue line resulting in a turnover and Nash rushing right down the ice with it.

Or here, let's look at this Stepan goal from last week in Philadelphia. This play starts in the Rangers' zone and goes Grabner -> Hayes in the neutral zone -> Miller who misses it and has to forecheck to get it back -> Stepan (who replaced Hayes in a line shift after the zone entry) for the goal. That's a quick strike transition play from goal line to goal line involving 4 forwards and 0 defensemen. :D

Let's stick with it. Same game. Jooris with a defensive play and outlet to Vesey -> Vesey skates through the neutral zone into the Flyers' zone -> saucer pass to Puempel for the goal. 3 forwards, no defensemen involved in the transition.
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
Now imagine how that chart would look when Smith, Polak, Hunwick are swapped out with Kapanen, Nielsen and Dermott

Another thing to note is this is with the Leafs carrying the lead more than most teams.
 

Yawnier

Banned
Now imagine how that chart would look when Smith, Polak, Hunwick are swapped out with Kapanen, Nielsen and Dermott

Another thing to note is this is with the Leafs carrying the lead more than most teams.

Kapanen will be the Jari Kurri to Matthews' Gretzky

and Jeremy Bracco will be our Glenn Anderson

and Nielsen will be our Paul Coffey
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
They would never lose a game!

They still would. Expected goals doesn't mean scored goals.

But positive possession players replacing bums will make things more pronounced.

I assume the Leafs will change from their current overload system as it's a big reason they get a lot of odd man rushes... And also part of the reason they are so dangerous.
 

imBask

Banned
They still would. Expected goals doesn't mean scored goals.

But positive possession players replacing bums will make things more pronounced.

I assume the Leafs will change from their current overload system as it's a big reason they get a lot of odd man rushes... And also part of the reason they are so dangerous.

Best team since 1967?
 
Choowie pls, stick to assessing what size of underwear Mathews pancake ass can fit in, so you can grab yourself a pair at The Bay, and take them hope to smell and jerk off in your neighbor's backyard, before the police gets called on you or when you bust nut.

lol, who pissed in your Corn Flakes?

I'm not that obsessed with Matthews, but I'm glad to have him on our team.
 
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