I'd place at least some of that blame on the Jets' defense. He probably gets next to no help night in and night out.
They are bad defensively there's no doubt, both as a team systems-wise but also they are lacking talent on D with some waiver-wire guys playing a shocking number of minutes. It's rare to see a Jets game and not think, without exaggeration, that at least two of the defencemen should be in the AHL and it's shocking they aren't. A lot of teams have a guy on the back end that is fringe-NHL but that's why he's the 7th guy. The Jets will have that guy and two more like him, and one will be handcuffed to poor Buff. ;(
But Pavelec is just a mediocre goalie beyond that I think. If the only real difference between an average and above average to elite goalie in the NHL is consistency like some hockey people insist than Pavs is the living proof of that theory. He makes some great saves at times and has very strong games occasionally, but there are 20+ guys in the NHL who can play a great game now and then and make the odd highlight reel save.
Hmmm... watching the Leafs game now, Reimer hung out to dry. But he's got some experience with a shoddy defense I see, that's good, that's actually great to see.