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NHL Smarch 2015 |OT| Toronto is tanking on purpose this time.

ShaneB

Member
I switched back to Firefox as well recently, got tired of Chrome, and enjoyed using Opera for a little while, but have just went full back to Firefox.
 

calder

Member
pronman article making the case that Hanifin should be drafted after Strome and Marner.

anyone with a sub want to summarize?

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nhl-draft&id=744

When teams are deliberating on their draft boards -- specifically when looking at the top of the draft -- the position of the skater is often a very key question. Do they want a potential first-line center, or a potential No. 1 defenseman? John Tavares or Victor Hedman? Nail Yakupov or Ryan Murray? Nathan MacKinnon or Seth Jones? Sam Reinhart or Aaron Ekblad?

In 2015, after the top two picks go Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, will the team picking third want forwards Dylan Strome or Mitch Marner, or will they grab top defensive prospect Noah Hanifin? The evidence favors the former.

The decision at the No. 3 slot comes down to two variables: First is the evaluation of the merits of the player’s own abilities, and second is the relative value of a player based on his position. The most important aspect of this is the actual value of the position at the NHL level. On talent alone, Boston College blueliner Hanifin is either even with or a little above star OHL forwards Strome and Marner.

But to break the tie over who the No. 3 team should pick comes down to the positional variable, and there's evidence to suggest that grabbing a player that will be a top-line forward is a wiser investment than getting that top-pairing D-man.
Here's why.

Forwards are more important than defensemen

In the 2014 edition of Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract, Tom Awad unveiled one of the most important pieces of research in hockey analytics in the past few years titled “What Makes Good Players Good?” As you might expect, it asked a simple, yet extremely important question: Who are the "good" players, and what attributes make them "good?"

One of Awad’s conclusions -- that forwards are much more important than defensemen -- was initially jarring:

“Results at even strength are driven primarily by forwards. This is not to say that offensive play is more important than defensive play; simply that, in the NHL, the players who contribute the most to outscoring the opposition at even strength are first-line forwards, not top-pair defensemen.”

To show this, Awad split up the league-wide ice time for forwards and defensemen into quarters and thirds respectively, and analyzed the differences between the tiers of ice time and their performance. With forwards, there were noticeable differences between the four tiers, but this was not the case for defensemen in the first two tiers, with only a moderate drop-off to the third. Awad showed that the difference between the highest and lowest tier forward groups was a 0.76 goal differential per 60 minutes, but the difference between the highest and lowest tier defensemen groups was only a 0.13 goal differential -- six times less!

Another way to look at this is to take individual splits of shot differential for players when they were on the ice compared to their team when they were off the ice. To determine the role of players in the chart, I used each player's ranking within their team by even-strength ice time.
insider_pronmanhanifin_tk_576x418.jpg


This echoes what Awad found in his research. The even-strength effects of forwards are more pronounced at the top and bottom of performance levels than they are for defensemen. Good forwards elevate a team and bad ones crush a team, and the effect is more intense than that of their defensive counterparts.

This does not suggest that particular star defensemen don’t impact teams in a significant way -- Zdeno Chara, Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson come to mind -- or that there are no black-hole defensemen in the NHL. But generally speaking, defensemen at the top of a team’s lineup impact their team much less than the top forwards on a team at even strength, and these differences remain even after adjusting for details like quality of competition and linemates.

When I asked one NHL executive what he thought about that chart, he said, “I’m not surprised. Good forwards are far more valuable than good defensemen, and if anything, when you’re drafting, forwards tend to be safer bets to pan out as well.”


The decision at No. 3: Hanifin or a forward?

At this point, it may seem like I am clearly pro-forward, but it's not that simple. There is still a balancing of the particular merits of the players that has to be done. Keep in mind that I advocated for Ekblad as the first overall pick of last year’s class.

Part of the debate centers on this question: Will Hanifin be a star defensemen, like those cited above, or merely the type of player that could slot in as part of a team's top pairing?

Relative to the abilities of an average under-18 defenseman, Hanifin has looked slightly more impressive than Strome or Marner have looked relative to an average under-18 forward. Hanifin had one of the best performances in the IIHF under-18 championships last spring for an underage player that isn't named Connor McDavid. He played in the top four of Team USA’s World Junior Championship team earlier this season as a double-underage player, which is extremely rare for a D-man from one of the competitive hockey countries.

He’s also been an all-situations, high-minutes player in one of college hockey’s toughest conferences (Hockey East). He grades as a much better skater than Strome and has the size (6-foot-2, 205 pounds) that Marner lacks; he also has a better two-way game than both right now.

Strome and Marner have been exceptional in their own rights. Their scoring has been among the very best under-18 seasons the OHL has seen in recent memory for draft prospects; Strome has 117 points through 65 games, while Marner is at 124 points through 62 contests. Their puck skill levels and offensive IQs are far greater than Hanifin’s, with Marner’s skating being at the same high level as the blueliner.

In prospect evaluations, player’s performance level relative to their position tend to be highly attractive to scouts. In addition, a player who performs well one to two years ahead of their age group during international play -- such as Hanifin has done -- immediately draws considerable attention. It’s no surprise that after playing ahead of their age group for a few seasons, goaltenders Jack Campbell and Andrei Vasilevskiy were first-round draft picks.

Taking all of this into account, some would argue that Hanifin should be in a tier above the forwards, even after what we have learned about the positional value. However, after balancing all the listed factors above, I am not convinced that Hanifin has had a more impressive track record than Strome or Marner, even given the great teammates they’ve had (Strome counts McDavid as a teammate, while Marner skates with top-flight Coyotes prospect Max Domi).

Being 20 percent better than an average defenseman prospect may not make you better than a forward who is 15 percent better than an average forward prospect. Hanifin has been more impressive as a defense prospect than Strome or Marner as forwards, but it hasn’t been by enough to outweigh the position advantage that the forwards inherently possess.

Strome and Marner are potential star forwards with a decent chance to be top-line players. Even though Hanifin could be a No. 1 defender, maybe even a top-10 D-man in the league, the upside does not exceed the alternative options, especially when you consider the rate at which defensemen bust relative to forwards. Lower ceiling, lower floor, in other words. For that reason, Strome or Marner is a better choice.

Looking ahead

When the call is close between a forward and defense prospect, take the forward. I’d define “close” as players who project to be around the same range relative to their position average. This is for reasons of predictability (forwards are safer bets), and in terms of actual on-ice value, as confirmed both by the analytics and by the NHL executive.

The NHL is a forwards league, where most (but not all) good teams are built from the faceoff dot to the sides and back, and not from the net and out. This applies at the draft table and in other player acquisitions.

It’s also the reason why when I look at the merits of the prospects available after McDavid and Eichel, I side with Strome and Marner being selected ahead of Hanifin this June.


While I'm copypasta all up in here, Custance had an article about the bottom 5 teams and which would turn it around and contend fastest if they got McDavid...

It also raises the question: Of the five teams currently at the bottom of the standings, which are best poised for the fastest turnaround if they get lucky in the lottery and land McDavid?

Here’s a look:

1. Toronto Maple Leafs (9.5 percent chance at getting the No. 1 pick)

The Maple Leafs are a train wreck. If there isn’t drama today in Toronto, just give it a couple days and something will surface. But make no mistake, if this franchise suddenly landed Connor McDavid, their rebuild under Brendan Shanahan and GM Dave Nonis would skyrocket. He’s exactly the player they need to dramatically expedite things.

“There’s a couple of players in the draft that could alter the fortunes of a team,” said Nonis when we chatted about the possibility of the Leafs landing McDavid. “Obviously, McDavid is the guy people are focusing on in this draft, but there’s more than that. Whoever is fortunate enough to get one of those two or three guys will take a pretty big step forward in the development of their team.”

Landing McDavid would immediately remove any reason to trade Phil Kessel, since having a young superstar on an entry-level contract means you can have afford to have overpaid veterans in a cap system. Kessel has been productive with Tyler Bozak as his center -- imagine the numbers he’d post on a line with somebody who has McDavid’s hockey sense and vision. A McDavid-Kessel duo would be lethal.

Nazem Kadri would then slide in as a perfect No. 2 center.

It would dramatically speed up the timeline, and with the right coach, that’s a playoff team.

“You’re putting the pieces together, you don’t know how quickly they’re going to develop,” Nonis said when we started talking timeline for the rebuild in Toronto. “Having picks and young players is the only way to do it. We were able to put a larger number of picks in the bin. Now we have to make good on them.”

2. Carolina Hurricanes (8.5 percent chance at No. 1)

There’s something admirable in the way the Hurricanes have played this season, despite getting hit with injuries and talent deficiencies.

First-year coach Bill Peters has brought accountability, and Carolina plays teams pretty tough for a club at the bottom of the standings. Their goal differential is minus-27, the best of any of the bottom five. They’re also a top-10 possession team, with a Corsi for percentage of 51.8 percent. That’s a really good sign for the future.

“I think we’re doing the right things down the stretch,” said Hurricanes GM Ron Francis. “We’re playing the right way. We’ll see where the lottery ball falls at the end of the day.”

If the hockey gods want to reward a team that hasn’t blatantly tanked and continues to compete, Carolina will win the lottery.

If that’s the case, this team won’t be bad much longer. They’d have a legitimate young franchise centerman in McDavid, but could ease him into the lineup with Eric Staal getting the hardest minutes. Then you plug Jordan Staal into the role in which he won a Stanley Cup the Penguins, as the third-line center.

If the hardest thing to find is a franchise center, a close second is a franchise defenseman, and the Hurricanes have one in Justin Faulk. The most challenging part of rebuilding this team would be over for Francis if they land the No. 1 pick.

“Everybody, if they win the lottery, it changes the dynamic of the franchise,” Francis said. “We would be no different in that regard.”

3. Edmonton Oilers (11.5 percent chance at No. 1)

Yes, the Oilers have been in rebuilding mode forever and are Exhibit A in why losing games doesn’t always equate to a successful turnaround. But to be fair to Craig MacTavish, this is only his third draft as the GM. The biggest sins made by this team during their eternal rebuild aren’t on his shoulders. The Oilers need centers and defensemen, and that’s what MacTavish has attacked in his two drafts, taking Darnell Nurse No. 7 overall in his first draft and Leon Draisaitl third overall in his second.

If you add Connor McDavid into that equation, the Oilers suddenly are built completely properly with McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl down the middle. They’d still need help in goal and on defense, but they’d be set at the toughest position to find.

“We’re excited for the upcoming draft,” MacTavish said. “We think it can be a game-changer for us.”

4. Arizona Coyotes (13.5 percent chance at No. 1)

Like the Hurricanes, the Coyotes already have their franchise defenseman in Oliver Ekman-Larsson, so adding McDavid would give Arizona the two hardest puzzle pieces to find in building a Stanley Cup winner.

The difference with the Coyotes is that their other pieces are still very young and a couple years away.

“I look at our team right now, we have high hopes for Max Domi, Anthony Duclair and we have some of these other younger players coming -- but they’re not even in the minors yet,” said Coyotes GM Don Maloney. “You’re maybe a year or two away from that.”

The Coyotes also have a big contract -- and question mark -- in goal, with Mike Smith. Maloney said Smith has been playing better lately, and he has a .917 save percentage since the All-Star break that supports Maloney’s observation. Their turnaround could hinge on how quickly Smith returns to form.

“It would be a game-changer if we were given the top pick,” Maloney said. “To say, next year, could we turn it around and be a contender? That might be a stretch.”

5. Buffalo Sabres (20 percent chance at No. 1)

We’ll let GM Tim Murray handle this one. He’s a realist, even with McDavid.

“We’re not going to be contending right away,” Murray said. “But we have other pieces. I keep reading that ‘Buffalo thinks one player is going to put them over the top.’ It’s not one player. We made the trade with Winnipeg, we have [Sam] Reinhart coming. We have those two young guys on the blue line ... some of these young guys have not hit their peak yet. We also have our veterans. When we put better players around them, we’ll be more competitive.”

Murray pointed out that a big factor in Buffalo will be who ends up settling into the starting goaltender position once the Sabres are ready to lock into a starter.

Another factor will be which veterans with which he surrounds all of this young talent. The Sabres will eventually be able to spend money when the time is right.

“I like our players. In saying that, we’re in 30th place,” Murray said. “There’s a lot of different reasons we’re in 30th place. I’ve traded a lot of good players for futures, we’ve used probably eight goalies. I’ve done that. We haven’t had a chance to be consistent. That’s what 30th place does to you.”

I'll say it again - while I'm sure I'd quickly realize it's the Darkest Timeline and a terrible result, seeing the Leafs win the lottery would be kinda fun for a little while. I'm probably thinking that a lot mainly because it would mean the Sabres or Oilers wouldn't get him.
 

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Seth Rothman ‏@RothmanHockey 15m 15 minutes ago

Last night's NYR-CHI game delivered a 2.39 rating in NY market, best-ever reg. season NHL rating on NBCSN in NY (excluding Stadium Series).
Seth Rothman ‏@RothmanHockey 15m 15 minutes ago

Last night's #Rangers-#Blackhawks game also had a 0.73 rating nationally, second-best on NBCSN this season behind opening night.

Not bad.
 

Quick

Banned
Firefox, Firefox, and Firefox. I can't live without my seperate search bar.

I actually took that out. The address bar does the same thing. I did modify it to direct to a webpage when I type in a bunch of words (aka I'm Feeling Lucky).
 

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
0.5 points behind first place in fantasy now after 9th place before Hammond.

RIDING THE HAMBURGLER TRAIN ALL THE WAY TO THE TOP
 

zroid

Banned
Case for Franson getting more minutes and workload in NSH...

The jokes were loud as the Nashville Predators descended into their losing streak: Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli brought the Maple Leafs curse with them from Toronto.

But now, as the despondency continues, a general misconception has arisen: Franson is hurting the team and putting him on the ice is detrimental. That isn't to say he's the only reason behind the team's sudden aversion for winning, but his name (and the trade in general) come up as soon as causes start to be rattled off.

How much, if at all does Franson hurt the Preds? If anything, Peter Laviolette should be playing him more than he is, as ESPN and Hockey Abstract's Rob Vollman argued recently:

But why, in the midst of a losing skid, is coach Peter Laviolette using Franson as no more than a depth option? For an example of correct usage, consider how Jeff Petry is helping to solve Montreal's similar problems by working five more minutes per game than Franson, while anchoring a solid second pairing behind their equally essential top unit of P.K. Subban and Andrei Markov.

Picking up both Franson and Mike Santorelli from the Maple Leafs was a good move that can help put a legitimately great team over the top ­­ if they get to play, that is.

...which is something I've been saying or a couple weeks.

Lavi has been giving him the Weirdcock treatment, AKA he's vastly outperforming his pillow soft assignments but not being rewarded for it
 

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
I want Carolina, the Sabres or the Blue Jackets to land McDavid. He'll die in Edmonton and the Leafs don't deserve him either. Let one of the underdog teams get lucky. Oh, and fuck no not the Coyotes.
 
As much as I would like to see Ottawa lose because they are becoming a serious threat right now and won't stop winning, I would love for them to beat Boston and pass them up, as long as they don't pass us up and kick Boston out of the contention, or Washington.
 

zroid

Banned
I want Carolina, the Sabres or the Blue Jackets to land McDavid. He'll die in Edmonton and the Leafs don't deserve him either. Let one of the underdog teams get lucky. Oh, and fuck no not the Coyotes.

But he wants to be a Leaf. Why won't you let the poor kid have what he wants, you miserable creature?!
 

calder

Member
Chrome has some annoying hiccups and limitations on iOS, but the integration into everything else that google does as my benevolent tech overlord is too much to resist. It's better than Safari anyway.

At home I use Chrome without issue. At work, thanks to busted ass old non browser agnostic software I use IE and Firefox all the time, and occasionally Chrome as well, but for whatever insane reason the ITSM we use destroys Chrome but works fine on FF.
 
Case for Franson getting more minutes and workload in NSH...

...which is something I've been saying or a couple weeks.

Lavi has been giving him the Weirdcock treatment, AKA he's vastly outperforming his pillow soft assignments but not being rewarded for it

This isn't always true. He does well in optimal situations, but that doesn't mean Lavi can throw him into the fire and he'll do just as well. Franson is a depth addition to a team that's been near the top of the league for most of the season. He has to learn the system and adapt to playing in the West.
 

calder

Member
I want Carolina, the Sabres or the Blue Jackets to land McDavid. He'll die in Edmonton and the Leafs don't deserve him either. Let one of the underdog teams get lucky. Oh, and fuck no not the Coyotes.

The Sabres? Ugh I can't condone their tanking. Sure, tanking is a thing that teams do to various degrees but the Sabres have been so blatant, for so long (they started this tank job when McDavid was 16) that it's on a whole different level.

But yeah the Oilers can't be rewarded for sucking for so long either, just feels wrong. I almost hope it's some not bad team that just misses the playoffs but tried the whole way
and yes I know that could very easily apply to the Jets, and yes I that probably factors into my thinking
.
 

RC

Banned
I want Carolina, the Sabres or the Blue Jackets to land McDavid. He'll die in Edmonton and the Leafs don't deserve him either. Let one of the underdog teams get lucky. Oh, and fuck no not the Coyotes.

If the Leafs get McDavid I will stop watching hockey.
 

zroid

Banned
This isn't always true. He does well in optimal situations, but that doesn't mean Lavi can throw him into the fire and he'll do just as well. Franson is a depth addition to a team that's been near the top of the league for most of the season. He has to learn the system and adapt to playing in the West.

point is he has a 58% CF. he is outperforming his assignments, full stop. He isn't playing enough. If his performance starts to decline, then you ease up, but until then it's stupid to assume he's not good enough until you challenge him.

the prime issue here is they paid a 1st round pick for him and he's being used like a bottom pairing guy. that's dumb.
 

Gifs I found on the Hawks site (for Hawks-age, fuck yall Ducks-age ;^] )

My brother offered a ticket for Tuesday's game, that hat was the give away (for St Paddys day). I don't wear those kind of hats but it beats the usual green baseball cap they give out each year. It actually looks not shitty
 

zroid

Banned
So has anyone been watching Nashville at all? Cause what the fuck is actually going on.

I have, a little. Mostly I think it's just Rinne hasn't been as good. His save% over the last 15 games or so is like .909. It's true they have been playing a bit worse though overall, it's weird.
 

Curufinwe

Member
I want Carolina, the Sabres or the Blue Jackets to land McDavid. He'll die in Edmonton and the Leafs don't deserve him either. Let one of the underdog teams get lucky. Oh, and fuck no not the Coyotes.

Giroux and McDavid on the Flyers vs Crosby and Malkin on the Pens. You know it makes sense, Gary.
 

Curufinwe

Member
point is he has a 58% CF. he is outperforming his assignments, full stop. He isn't playing enough. If his performance starts to decline, then you ease up, but until then it's stupid to assume he's not good enough until you challenge him.

the prime issue here is they paid a 1st round pick for him and he's being used like a bottom pairing guy. that's dumb.

They have Weber and Jones ahead of him at RHD, though.
 

Acid08

Banned
Konami is fucking stupid for doing this. Honestly, Kojima himself is bigger and worth more than the company and by doing this, Konami is signing their own death warrant.



That'd be epic :).
Konami the company will be fine. They have a lot of separate ventures that make them quite a bit of money. Games wise though? They're a total mess.
 

zroid

Banned
They have Weber and Jones ahead of him at RHD, though.

Actually he's being paired with Jones atm. It's not that he should play higher in the lineup, but he should be getting more minutes. Jones is getting more minutes than him, and Franson's been playing better (against weaker comps). It's an unoptimal TOI balance.
 

iLLmAtlc

Member
Just speculating but I feel like Kojima being a bigger brand is probably the problem. Konami probably wanted less emphasis on Kojima and he refused.

from a gamer's point of view though this is probably good news. kojima can finally get a chance to make something new, and he will still have big budgets since i'm pretty sure there are studios lining up to throw piles of money at him.
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
Just speculating but I feel like Kojima being a bigger brand is probably the problem. Konami probably wanted less emphasis on Kojima and he refused.

This is most likely the case. With the "death" of Castlevania, Kojima is (was) the big name attached to their two remaining recognized properties: Metal Gear and Silent Hill. Kojima was Konami, as of yesterday.
 
GG Ducks, how long before there is a Good Guy Kesler Meme?

Kings will take a point at least and I'll just leave this here...

Dustin-Brown-levels-Corey-Perry.gif


Could watch that all day.
 
Maybe Habs-gaf can correct me, but I don't recall there being *any* media folks giving Jacques Martin credit for 'keeping things together' after he was fired or Gauthier for making tear-down moves when Montreal was tanking that year. Yet we're hearing it now frequently for Carlyle and Nonis.

Also, the weird fortunes of Franson make me wonder about the state of individual-based analytics. Maybe these aren't developed yet enough to be applied at that level?
 

Solo

Member
Gauthier/Gainey were more like rabid dogs that had to be put down before they made any further moves to set the franchise back a decade.

Martin had a very specific (and very successful with the right players) system he refused to move away from when he no longer had the types of players to fit it. Overall though, I believe the 2010 ECF run was just as much due to Martin's coaching as Halak standing on his head and Cammalleri channeling Maurice Richard.

But the media crucified all of them haha
 
Kojima will be scooped up by MS and then we'll watch the melt downs for days upon days on GAF. That would be so hilarious and entertaining.

Knowing how ties have been in the past, I could see him joining Sony actually. They let him make a first party company and in contrast to other companies, lets him keep his IPs.
 

calder

Member
"Kojima will be scooped up by MS and then we'll watch the melt downs for days upon days on GAF. That would be so hilarious and entertaining.'

... Crazed typed furiously on his SURFACE tablet, suddenly painfully erect in his PROJECT SPARTAN branded chinos.
 
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