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NHL Smarch 2015 |OT| Toronto is tanking on purpose this time.

R

Razorskin

----- ------
Cake Boss said:
Did overtime last night. Wut did I miss?
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XhEeSqk.jpg
 
Z

zroid

Banned
this is satire right? I honestly can't tell

It reads like a comedy routine, but I think the author is serious :lol

Department of Hockey Analytics: Ovechkin’s no MVP

Ovechkin’s offensive numbers actually aren’t particularly impressive.

Surprisingly, many in the analytics community are in agreement with many mainstream analysts who believe that Alexander Ovechkin merits serious consideration for MVP.

Considerably less surprisingly, I disagree with all of them.
To be fair, Ovechkin has had a good season and there really aren’t any forwards that have stepped up and separated themselves from the pack. Still, giving Ovechkin the MVP would be a travesty.

Mainstream analysts see that Ovechkin’s 47 goals leads the league by 7, he has a +/- of +11 — which looks positively stellar compared to the disastrous -35 he put up last year — and that the Capitals are going to make the playoffs. That’s all they need to know.

To them I say it’s time to look beyond goals. Ovechkin’s offensive numbers actually aren’t particularly impressive. In 5-on-5 play, he’s 90th in the league in points per 60 minutes. Plus, Ovechkin has only 26 assists, a microscopic 14 of which are 5-on-5. Since 1970, the fewest assists by a forward to win MVP in a full season was 45 — and that was by Brett Hull in 1990-91, when he potted 86 goals. Even adjusting for the overall decrease in scoring in the league since 1991, Ovechkin’s season isn’t in the same universe,

The love from some in the analytics community is more unexpected. Their argument focuses primarily on Ovechkin’s solid shot attempt differential of 54.5 per cent. They then apply some magic analytics pixie dust by disregarding Ovechkin’s actual goal differential to calculate what the Capitals’ “expected” goals for and against when Ovechkin is on the ice would be if Ovechkin’s linemates and goalies had a “league-average shooting and goaltending,” rather than the considerably below-average shooting and save percentages they actually have. One commentator suggested that the Capitals’ shooting percentage when Ovechkin’s on the ice should be assumed to increase by 8 points from 9.12 per cent to 9.20 per cent, and the Capitals’ save percentage should be assumed to increase by 14 points, from 90.9 per cent to 92.3 per cent.

In other words, these analytics experts are assuming that Ovechkin’s actual productivity is artificially low because of bad luck and natural variance in volatile stats like shooting and save percentage.

They seem oblivious to the possibility that his linemates’ and goalies’ struggles are actually caused by Ovechkin’s play.

Aside from being a premier goal scorer on the power play there are two things about Ovechkin’s game that stand out. First, he has never seen a shot he didn’t like. Over the past four seasons Ovechkin attempted 2,541 shots, a mind-boggling 635 more than anyone else in the league. Second, although his defense has definitely been better under new coach Barry Trotz, Ovechkin is still prone to grotesque defensive lapses.
Assuming that Ovechkin “should” be getting league average shooting and save percentages from his teammates conveniently assumes these problems away.

When a player is as poor defensively as Ovechkin is, it isn’t realistic to assume his play will have no impact on his goalies’ save percentages.

When a team’s offense runs through a player with a unique propensity to shoot indiscriminately, miss the net a ton, and rarely pass, then it isn’t realistic to assume that his linemates’ shooting percentages are going to be the same as they would be if they played with a more conventional player.

So I’m going to suggest something truly radical to the analytics community: to gauge Ovechkin’s value we should focus on actual, real-life goals.

When we look at goal metrics, it turns out that when Ovechkin is on the ice in 5-on-5 play, the Capitals’ goal differential this season is 0.8 per cemt lower than when he isn’t on the ice (this is called Goals For % “Rel.”, as in “relative” to the rest of the team). In other words, 5-on-5 the Capitals do better when Ovechkin isn’t on the ice than when he is.

For some elite players it would be fair to dismiss such a result as an aberration. Over the relatively small sample of 70 games, it would be reasonable to conclude that the player was a victim of variance; that he’s just on the wrong side of puck luck.
For example, so far this season Patrice Bergeron, Anze Kopitar, and John Tavares all fall in the same negative territory as Ovechkin.

But as shown in the table, the difference is that these players have a long track record establishing their positive goal differentials, whereas Ovechkin has just the opposite. This year’s negative numbers aren’t an aberration for Ovechkin, they’re the norm. They’re most likely an accurate reflection of his true contribution to his team.
Contrary to what the analysts are saying, Ovechkin isn’t even break-even for the Caps, let alone the league’s MVP.

The Department of Hockey Analytics employs advanced statistical methods and innovative approaches to better understand the game of hockey. Its three founders are Ian Cooper, a lawyer, former player agent and Wharton Business School graduate; Dr. Phil Curry, a professor of economics at the University of Waterloo; and IJay Palansky, a litigator at the law firm of Armstrong Teasdale, former high-stakes professional poker player, and Harvard Law School graduate. Visit us at www.depthockeyanalytics.com
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S

SmackCrackleNPop

Member
dr.rocktopus said:
lttp but THANK YOU DUCKS!!

but why snes :( poor hamburglar, I love these come out of nowhere goalie stories.

Also Kings ¯_(ツ)_/¯ this always happens I don't really get why we're supposed to hate them...
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Kings fans are bandwagoners, showing up if they're playing well in the playoffs.

Something something Dustin Brown kneeing someone.
Something something STOLL injuring someone.
Quick is angry a lot of the time.
9RY4syl.gif


Wouldn't surprise me to see them lock up a playoff spot and grind their way to another Cup.
 
C

Calamari41

41 > 38
SmackCrackleNPop said:
Wouldn't surprise me to see them lock up a playoff spot and grind their way to another Cup.
Click to expand...

As I said before, if they make it through this end of season gauntlet and wind up in the playoffs, they'll be the overwhelming favorites to win it all. I'm not even trying to do a reverse jinx or whatever, that's the truth.

dr.rocktopus said:
I feel like I should have crept NHL-GAF during the playoffs last year :(
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I know this idiot is a Rangers fan, but imagine pages of this:

NYR said:
#1

Keep hatin' haters, you hate us cause you ain't us.
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from dozens of posters you've never heard of before, and will never hear from again. But only in the specific event that the Kings take a lead in a game. Before they take a lead, its complete radio silence.
 
Z

zroid

Banned
CrazedArabMan said:
real-life goals...

yeah the advance hockey stats people have officially crossed over into "WTF" territory.
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this is clearly faux-advanced stats

he's somehow trying to discredit mainstream analysts and the analytics community with some bizarre interpretation of the data... and failing miserably, but I'm not convinced it's not satire
 
C

CreeperBlocks

Banned
Off Topic but Dark Souls one is actually more tough than I remember. Dark Souls 2 was a Cakewalk.

I'm trying to get back in the Souls Groove when I buy Bloodborne soon
 
D

dr.rocktopus

Banned
SmackCrackleNPop said:
Kings fans are bandwagoners, showing up if they're playing well in the playoffs.

Something something Dustin Brown kneeing someone.
Something something STOLL injuring someone.
Quick is angry a lot of the time.
Click to expand...

Calamari41 said:
I know this idiot is a Rangers fan, but imagine pages of this:



from dozens of posters you've never heard of before, and will never hear from again. But only in the specific event that the Kings take a lead in a game. Before they take a lead, its complete radio silence.
Click to expand...

Hmm, gotcha. Makes sense why I haven't really seen it yet!

I think the antics of Marchand blinds me to Brown. Brown just hits and sometimes hit dirty. Marchand will hit, hit dirty, still score goals, move into the larger house beside yours, buy the same car as yours but a trim level up, and let you know he wants to plow your wife repeatedly. The best pest; sometimes I'm in awe, sometimes I'm like "fuck this guy".

Brown doesn't really go beyond " what a shithead" for me ¯_(ツ)_/¯
 
Z

zroid

Banned
oh shit. Erie lost its first playoff game (vs Sarnia)

McDavid and Strome not able to contend with pressure of the playoffs confirmed
 
C

Calamari41

41 > 38
SuperSonic1305 said:
So much wrong in one post. Bloodborne has better art direction in the first 10 minutes than all the other Souls games put together.
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The first ten minutes of Bloodborne... you mean the part where you fight a werewolf in a library and then fight a bunch of RE4 villagers in front of a bonfire? That beats everything in every other Souls game combined?

Ok.
 
Z

zroid

Banned
Yawnier said:
Kessel-Booth pushed each other/"fought" in practice today

RIP Toronto Media and Jeff O'Neill
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lolol these last couple weeks are going to be a wild ride


edit: ONeill just said this on Laffs Lunch:

"Kessel probably fought Booth for trying too hard"

:lol :lol
 
F

Fata1moose

Banned
Calamari41 said:
The first ten minutes of Bloodborne... you mean the part where you fight a werewolf in a library and then fight a bunch of RE4 villagers in front of a bonfire? That beats everything in every other Souls game combined?

Ok.
Click to expand...

Spoilers! What the fuck, Calamari?! I wanted to experience the first 10 minutes of the game myself! -Someone on NeoGAF probably.
 
M

Merguson

Banned
Yawnier said:
Kessel-Booth pushed each other/"fought" in practice today

RIP Toronto Media and Jeff O'Neill
Click to expand...

Shanahan should suspend those two for a couple of games.

This is unacceptable right? Sit those two out for a couple of games. Our leading scorer... and.. the guy who decided to score after the trade deadline.
 
Y

Yawnier

Banned
zroid said:
ONeill just said this on Laffs Lunch:

"Kessel probably fought Booth for trying too hard"

:lol :lol
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Omg

Merguson said:
Shanahan should suspend those two for a couple of games.

This is unacceptable right? Sit those two out for a couple of games. Our leading scorer... and.. the guy who decided to score after the trade deadline.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't mind suspending Booth for a bit. I get scared every time he is on the ice.
 
B

bonesmccoy

Banned
Strome, Marner, Hanifin, Barzal, Provorov etc... There's probably a franchise player available for every team that picks in the top 10.

Yawnier said:
Kessel-Booth pushed each other/"fought" in practice today

RIP Toronto Media and Jeff O'Neill
Click to expand...

What? O'Neill probably popped the biggest stem of his life when he heard the news.
 
C

Clydefrog

Member
SmackCrackleNPop said:
Kings fans are bandwagoners, showing up if they're playing well in the playoffs.

Something something Dustin Brown kneeing someone.
Something something STOLL injuring someone.
Quick is angry a lot of the time.
9RY4syl.gif


Wouldn't surprise me to see them lock up a playoff spot and grind their way to another Cup.
Click to expand...

Every team has players that people hate
 
I

iLLmAtlc

Member
Pretty clear that this is David Booths team now. It's not unlike when overpaid Vernon Wells was run out of town so Bautista could take over.
 
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