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[Sandfox]

This, as well.

There is absolutely ZERO reason the 3DS should have sold less than it did last year, after everything Nintendo did with it. No way in hell is their handheld output this year going to match 2013, by any stretch of the imagination.

I seriously can't think of what else Nintendo can do short term except another big price-cut, which would be especially painful when they're losing money as it is.

I kinda feel that people overestimate the selling power of the 2DS and games released on the 3DS in 2013.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Holy shit..that's a horrible set of numbers

I knew the lowering of the forecast will be a comical amount but it's still amazing to see. At least they are waking up from w/e dream world they were living in.

 

[Aquamarine]

New FY guidance: 2.8 million


So far:

Q1 + Q2 - 460K consoles shipped

Q3 USA sell-through: 754K
Q3 Japanese sell-through: 447K

Total: 1661K + Europe / Other as of Q3

And presumably, Q4 will be very slow worldwide.

 

[stryke]

I'm expecting a price drop this year in response to the Vita's eventual price drop in Japan.

Heh, I'd expect a drop too but responding to Vita is the least of their concerns.

 

[Instro]

considering the wii u will be at 6.25m ww shipped by march (if they meet the forecasts), i think it's increasingly likely the console may not outsell the dreamcast or even the saturn.

what do they reasonably forecast for the wii u for 2014-2015? 4m... when it will probably sell 2m?

I'd be inclined to think it will have a better year. The first party lineup is generally superior both in quality and sales potential, and with further price drops and releases it becomes a more attractive niche console.

 

[Sylverstone14]

Well, I have a long day ahead of me.

Today will not be a good day.

 

[Jimrpg]

Games like they used to for the NES and SNES are not popular and do not sell well anymore. They are for the most part putting out software that equals or beats their output from the golden years, if you really look at it without nostalgia interfering.

The problem is that the "larger" audience wants big dumb shooter things on tv or small dumb pretty things on phones and while Nintendo could probably try to cater to that audience it's kind of a need that's being filled already.

Is Nintendo going to make a game that makes Call of Duty fans happy? Is Nintendo going to make a game that 40 year old ladies that play candy crush will play, and actually pay them anything to play it? Absolutely not and they would be stupid to waste money trying.

Can you actually imagine Nintendo making a game that the average dumb american that shops at gamestop and buys call of duty and madden would want to play? What would it be?

Like you say they aren't going to create the next dumb shooter, because that's not really their thing.

But if you look at Sony's strategy over the years, they've always gone after the core audience with both the hardware and software, and their long term strategy has more often than not worked... granted with the PS3 it was too long and cost them their unassailable lead from the PS2 era, but I don't think they lost any goodwill from their target audience who as we have seen will go and buy the PS4. I think in the last two years most gamers have been pretty happy with the output from Sony both with first party titles and managing third party titles on the system.

And thats what I hope to see on Nintendo, they should be looking after the core gamers which I think since the gamecube days they have deserted them. These are the ones that will continue to buy games as they get older.

 

[Sakura]

Games cost more to make now then they did two generations ago. Several times more infact

Is Nintendo spending several times more in development costs? Other devs are maybe, sure. But I don't see games like 3D World or NSMBU costing astronomically large figures just because they are in 720p now. And like I said, even on a huge install base, it's not like Zelda titles necessarily sell a ton of units (look at Skyward Sword). Wii U install base could be 20 million or 90 million and the game might sell similar numbers.

 

[Warm Machine]

Why not? The Gamecube and N64 install base wasn't really that large when Windwaker or OoT were released on them. SS was released on a huge install base but didn't sell much better than WW and MM, and sold less than OoT and TP. A console Zelda will always sell fine to the core Nintendo fans in my opinion, and most of those fans will probably have a Wii U by the time the game comes out.

They also could always release the game as a cross gen title, like they did for TP.

N64 gamers bought games though. Nothing on WiiU has done Wave Race, Goldeneye, SMB64, Banjo, or even 1080 numbers yet. GameCube players also bought games. Starfox Adventures sold a good deal of copies when it was released as did Sunshine. The console also had decent 3rd party support and technological parity with its competitors. WiiU is pretty different.

 

[Chris R]

Honestly I can't wait for E3. Nintendo is gonna go hard, because if they don't...

 

[kurbaan]

The hyperbole in this thread is amazing. This is a very minor loss if you look at Nintendo's yearly income history and its magnitude, and yet the sky is falling. No one's arguing they're doing well, but they're not doing terribly either, just poorly.

Hyperbole? When a company lowers their forecast by that much it only show how out of touch they are with the market. They have no clue what is going on. They lowered their profit forecast by 140%. 140%. That is insane. Less than half of their projected sales for the home console. And the 3DS which is supposed to be keeping them in the market is massively dissapointing.

This should be a massive red flag to investors and they should be fleeing nintendo. Heads will and should roll for this. Expect massive strategy changes in the future.

The most troubling part though is the flop of 3DS software sales. It had an amazing year in terms of games yet they all sold way below expectations. The market is moving on from Nintendo and they are in trouble.

Honestly I can't wait for E3. Nintendo is gonna go hard, because if they don't...

They will probably do a nintendo direct and then reveal on the show floor that the WII Fit girl will be playable in MK!!!!

 

[Delio]

The 3DS had every possible thing thrown at it already: Every major portable franchise you can think of, lower and premium SKUs, price drop, and bundles, all within the span of the last 12-18 months.

Damn.

And I won't even comment on the Wii U situation. That shit is just sad.

To compare, I wonder if Sony will hit their 5M Vita/PSP forecast for 2014 FY

This makes me really upset about the 3DS. This year was so good and nothing really came of it in the end. I really dont like handhelds losing ground to phones but it seems to be going that way every day. I guess it upsets me cause the games I play on nintendo handhelds might not move over to phones. Ugh.

 

[Uncle Rupee]

I think we can all agree that fucking Cranky Kong is to blame for this mess.

Sarcasm right? They have no experience or desire and even if they did what kind of idiot would go up against IOS and Android with what would no doubt be a proprietary OS?

I'm sure they could partner with NTT Docomo or something if they wanted to.

 

[stryke]

The 3DS already had its beast mode last year with DQVII, MoHu4, Pokémon & P&D.

They released a hardware revision as well.

 

[Anth0ny]

considering the wii u will be at 6.25m ww shipped by march (if they meet the forecasts), i think it's increasingly likely the console may not outsell the dreamcast or even the saturn.

what do they reasonably forecast for the wii u for 2014-2015? 4m... when it will probably sell 2m?

2014 is Kart and Smash. I have to imagine it cracks 3 or 4 million. That is the console's peak. Then it's all downhill from there.

As for the 3DS, in 2014 when a parent can get their kid a 139 Kindle HD that is much more powerful and can do perform many more functions, who is going to be looking at the 199 3DS XL. Even at discounted prices it is far too expensive. And introduce the fact that 99 dollar phones will show up this year off contract that blow away the 3DS then there is a severe problem with the pricing of the system.

Dude, try a free, old hand-me-down iPhone. My 5 year old cousin uses my uncle's old iphone 3 and she's obsessed. That plays games for free and the kids fucking LOVE them. She doesn't even know who Mario or Pikachu is.

 

[HYDE]

I seriously can't think of what else Nintendo can do short term except another big price-cut, which would be especially painful when they're losing money as it is.

3DS Lite would sell gangbusters with a price drop...and a second string of amazing games.
Just like the GBASP and DS Lite did.

 

[Phatmac]

Stop living in a conservative bubble, make aggressive strides to expand software development culture on a global scale, listen closer to third parties and the echoes of the market they are competing in as much as they like to think they're not, be attentive to rapidly changing world of technology and economics, and understand that an overwhelming majority of customers do not want to put down US$300 for an unappealing piece of hardware that has scarce releases of Super Mario in between shovelware when for an additional $200+ dollars they can get a system with significantly broader software and genre variety, routine software releases, and a strong promise of continued support into the future.

Nintendo exists on the same planet and in the same market as everybody else mingling in home/portable technology and software. This isn't the 90s, where a dedicated game machine that just does what it does and it's Sony or Sega or Nintendo or whatever is good enough. The way customers perceive and value both software and hardware has changed. The expectations have changed. The risks and rewards have changed. The development environment has changed. The economy has changed. The customer culture of buying hardware has changed. And all of these things have changed rapidly and dramatically over just the last few years.

Despite this Nintendo operates as if nothing has changed and they can keep playing the same game they've been playing for the better part of two decades, despite the competition they seem to deliberately ignore rapidly adapting and growing alongside the rest of the world. People do not want to buy a $300 Mario box. They don't want to buy this, and wait three/four/five months for the next noteworthy game, one that might not even be a franchise or genre they're interested in. Not everybody who likes Mario likes Zelda, or likes The Wonderful 101, or likes Metroid, or F-Zero, or everything else. And that just makes the situation worse, when someone can put that $300 towards another platform that's going to have far more software released far quicker.

It's an investment, for customers and shareholders, and at the moment Nintendo is a bad investment.

This pretty much sums it up.

 

[dimb]

I'd be inclined to think it will have a better year. The first party lineup is generally superior both in quality and sales potential, and with further price drops and releases it becomes a more attractive niche console.

There's more competition in the marketplace this year though.

 

[Jonnyram]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/7974:JP

here we goooo

Apologies if this has already been stated, but the announcement was made after markets closed. You won't see the effects of this until Monday morning.

 

[royalan]

Guys, they're not relating a new system soon. The costs are prohibitive and the risk too massive, it's probably safer to ride the WiiU for a while. I mean, it's a pretty bad situation regardless :/

There's plenty they could do to start the process of righting this ship that doesn't involve scrapping the Wii U.

Off the top of my head:

1) They NEED to scrap the gamepad. Sorry, at this point it's officially dumb not to. They need to get that price down as quickly as possible, and the majority of the Wii U's library does not make a strong enough case to keep it.

2) Sack Iwata. Needs to be done. It's not just the bad decisions in and of themselves, it's what they say about his ability to guide Nintendo in this modern gaming industry. Frankly, he can't. He's all out of ideas, and doomed to repeat past failures. Cut him loose.

3) Give NoA more decision-making power and begin an industry-wide outreach to developers. I'm reminded of Sony and the early years of the PS3. When the PS3 was in it's darkest days one of the few sources of was all the news of major changes Sony was making behind the scenes. Sacking crazy Ken, shifting development to the West, reaching out to 3rd parties. Knowing that major changes were happening at Sony helped maintain interest in their hardware and their future in its darkest hour. Nintendo needs to follow suit. If they try to "stay the course" on this, they're just practically begging people to ignore them for good.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

It's probably going to be higher than that. If they actually do a full production Zelda in HD costs will balloon.

It's not about whether the next Zelda is going to be profitable, it probably won't, but they absolutely have to release it. Not supporting your own major console with one of your biggest IPs, one that fans expect and that many bought the console for, would result in a terrible loss of trust, and it would hurt them far more than the bottom line in the long run.

They're in a really non-enviable position at the moment, I hope everything works out for them in the end.

 

[Lebon14]

No amount of "please understand" will save Iwata.

Yeah... Three out of the four launches he was under were bad. The GC, although respected by the fans, didn't sell well (good library of games). The only succesful launch Iwata had was the Wii. The 3DS had a bad launch and it had something Nintendo never did before: The Ambassador program then, in Nov&Dec, miraculously saved the console with proper software release. The fourth one, the WiiU, has been doing worse than the GC did in its time because of multiple factors such as brand confusion, lack of third party support, below standard software line-up, bad marketing, bad word to mouth from core gamers, etc.

No... Iwata... you need to step down. You are a game developper, not a CEO. Those forecast is just the proof that you aren't in touch with the current standards at all. Also, I believe that investors will probably say the same things too.

 

[Dark_castle]

From 9 -->2.8 million is a huge drop. Same with the 3DS. 9M expectation after selling like crap is lol.



I was being sarcastic.

Iwata thought 3D world will cut it. Turns out he was utterly wrong.

 

[metalslimer]

New FY guidance: 2.8 million


So far:

Q1 + Q2 - 460K consoles shipped

Q3 USA sell-through: 754K
Q3 Japanese sell-through: 447K

Total: 1661K + Europe / Other as of Q3

And presumably, Q4 will be very slow worldwide.

Nintendo will probably miss even this terrible forecast by a few hundred thousand units with how slow things will be in Q1. If the US sales can hold somewhat they might be able to pull it out, but it probably won't.

 

[Sandfox]

Heh, I'd expect a drop too but responding to Vita is the least of their concerns.

A price drop would put the Vita at a cheaper price than the 3DS and if it comes in March like expected the system would have momentum that could hurt the sales of the 3DS in Japan.

Animal Crossing only released in Japan. That does't explain the 3DS doing worse YoY vs the Paper Mario holiday in 2012. The market is declining.

I think one the difference in competition both HW-wise and SW-wise WW going from 2012 to 2013 had a bit of an effect.

 

[fredrancour]

3DS Lite would sell gangbusters with a price drop...and a second string of amazing games.
Just like the GBASP and DS Lite did.

Yeah, the ds lite was a badass piece of industrial design in that it simultaneously became a cheaper model and a more stylish model compared to the ds fat. In comparison, the XL was more expensive and didn't make the hardware design more streamlined visually or ergonomically. Going premium with their first design revision, and not adding all that much value in the process, was probably a mistake.

Maybe battery life drove them to choose a larger one over a tinier one?

 

[Komo]

There's plenty they could do to start the process of righting this ship that doesn't involve scrapping the Wii U.

Off the top of my head:

1) They NEED to scrap the gamepad. Sorry, at this point it's officially dumb not to. They need to get that price down as quickly as possible, and the majority of the Wii U's library does not make a strong enough case to keep it.

2) Sack Iwata. Needs to be done. It's not just the bad decisions in and of themselves, it's what they say about his ability to guide Nintendo in this modern gaming industry. Frankly, he can't. He's all out of ideas, and doomed to repeat past failures. Cut him loose.

3) Give NoA more decision-making power and begin an industry-wide outreach to developers. I'm reminded of Sony and the early years of the PS3. When the PS3 was in it's darkest days one of the few sources of was all the news of major changes Sony was making behind the scenes. Sacking crazy Ken, shifting development to the West, reaching out to 3rd parties. Knowing that major changes were happening at Sony helped maintain interest in their hardware and their future in its darkest hour. Nintendo needs to follow suit. If they try to "stay the course" on this, they're just practically begging people to ignore them for good.

That'll confuse the general consumer even more

 

[kurbaan]

3DS Lite would sell gangbusters with a price drop...and a second string of amazing games.
Just like the GBASP and DS Lite did.

How? The 2DS came out this year which is pretty much that. It didn't do anything. Nintendo's problem is that kids are moving on, like dude said above kids are getting tablets and iPhones with free games. In a couple of years there will be a whole new generation of kids that don't know or care who mario and zelda are.

Nintendo needs to get these kids to want Mario games.

 

[Sakura]

N64 gamers bought games though. Nothing on WiiU has done Wave Race, Goldeneye, SMB64, Banjo, or even 1080 numbers yet. GameCube players also bought games. Starfox Adventures sold a good deal of copies when it was released as did Sunshine. The console also had decent 3rd party support and technological parity with its competitors. WiiU is pretty different.

Wii U gamers need games to buy though. Games like Pikmin 3 have sold similarly to what they sold on last gen consoles have they not? I don't know about US sales, but the legs on SM3DW have been quite nice in Japan haven't they? 450k out of an install base of 1.5M That's almost 1 in 3 people with the game. Yea it sucks that games like W101 sell poorly on the system, but it's also understandable that it doesn't reach a large audience.

 

[royalan]

That'll confuse the general consumer even more

...what general consumer?

 

[Mattias]

Dankey Kang will save Nintendo

 

[Zinthar]

This, as well.

There is absolutely ZERO reason the 3DS should have sold less than it did last year, after everything Nintendo did with it. No way in hell is their handheld output this year going to match 2013, by any stretch of the imagination.

I seriously can't think of what else Nintendo can do short term except another big price-cut, which would be especially painful when they're losing money as it is.

I think the underperforming sales of the 3DS in the fiscal year, along with the completely pitiful sales of the Vita, only serve to underscore how deeply and relentlessly mobile devices have cut into the traditional handheld gaming market (and probably Nintendo's home console business as well).

 

[metalslimer]

Wii U gamers need games to buy though. Games like Pikmin 3 have sold similarly to what they sold on last gen consoles have they not? I don't know about US sales, but the legs on SM3DW have been quite nice in Japan haven't they? 450k out of an install base of 1.5M That's almost 1 in 3 people with the game. Yea it sucks that games like W101 sell poorly on the system, but it's also understandable that it doesn't reach a large audience.

No, every Nintendo franchise will have their worst selling entries by far on the system.

And it didn't even make a impact.

Even when it was priced at $99 during black Friday

I think the scarier part is how sales would have been without the 2DS.

 

[cafemomo]

They released a hardware revision as well.

And it didn't even make a impact.

Even when it was priced at $99 during black Friday

 

[ffdgh]

Honestly I can't wait for E3. Nintendo is gonna go hard, because if they don't...

I really hope they don't use a direct for E3 again.

 

[7DollarHagane]

Like you say they aren't going to create the next dumb shooter, because that's not really their thing.

But if you look at Sony's strategy over the years, they've always gone after the core audience with both the hardware and software, and their long term strategy has more often than not worked... granted with the PS3 it was too long and cost them their unassailable lead from the PS2 era, but I don't think they lost any goodwill from their target audience who as we have seen will go and buy the PS4. I think in the last two years most gamers have been pretty happy with the output from Sony both with first party titles and managing third party titles on the system.

And thats what I hope to see on Nintendo, they should be looking after the core gamers which I think since the gamecube days they have deserted them. These are the ones that will continue to buy games as they get older.

Gamers and the press have been VERY happy with the output from nintendo on DS, WiiU, and 3DS as well, and all those titles that they put out sell magnitudes more than any Sony first party software.

Just looking at the NPD again, there's no Sony software on that chart. It would be kind to say that Killzone and Knack had a "mixed" reception and that Gran Turismo 6 also under performed. Puppeteer and Tearaway were bombs. On the whole, Sony's 2013 end of year lineup was unremarkable. They thankfully got a lot of attention for Last of Us earlier in the year or people wouldn't be looking back to positively on them.

Also that goodwill for the PS4 has a lot more to do with what Microsoft did than with what Sony did. They acted and took advantage of the right situation MS handed them, for the most part.

These discussions about Nintendo's financial woes always lack context for the rest of the industry.

 

[SloaneRangerSW1]

Time for a broader shareholder revolt or activist hedge fund to take a stake and kick out Iwata. This isn't sustainable.

 

[Uncle Rupee]

Wii U gamers need games to buy though. Games like Pikmin 3 have sold similarly to what they sold on last gen consoles have they not? I don't know about US sales, but the legs on SM3DW have been quite nice in Japan haven't they? 450k out of an install base of 1.5M That's almost 1 in 3 people with the game. Yea it sucks that games like W101 sell poorly on the system, but it's also understandable that it doesn't reach a large audience.

It's weird to me that Pikmin 3, W101, etc are not multi-million sellers by now. There aren't a ton of games worth buying on the Wii U, so why are the few games that are worth owning not selling to every Wii U owner in existence?

 

[stryke]

A price drop would put the Vita at a cheaper price than the 3DS and if it comes in March like expected the system would have momentum that could hurt the sales of the 3DS in Japan.

How much more expensive is the Vita right now in Japan?

 

[Chris R]

I really hope they don't use a direct for E3 again.

No way they do. New CEO will be there dropping bombs left and right.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

I really hope they don't use a direct for E3 again.

With Zelda making its debut in all likelihood, I feel almost positively they will do a normal stage show this time around.

 

[rrs]

That'll confuse the general consumer even more

Scrap gamepad, relaunch as something NOT with "Wii" in it, make money (hopefully)

Also throw some F-Zero and Metroid in and you got a winner

 

[Labadal]

Nintendo need to figure out something. The 3DS might be selling less than their expectations but there's still a lot of great exclusives. The Wii U has some too, but none that I could describe as a major system seller. Add to that the confusion with the regular Wii. I work with kids and none of them have a clue what it is. Everyone talks about the PS4 and XB1.

Nintendo needs to somehow cater to the non-Nintedo crowd. How, I do not know.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

I don't think the Gamepad is the problem here. Only about 1/2 of the games that made the top 10 last year were released for the Wii U, while all of them hit the 360. And some of the games that DID hit the Wii U would have a bad online experience whereas the games popularity is fueled by online experiences (Call of Duty BO and Ghosts)

The Wii U needs another selling point SOMEWHERE other than Nintendo games, and gimped 3rd party leftovers isn't doing it.

As far as game content, I think the Wii U prospective buyers are only seeing two games: Smash Brothers and MARIO KART. Nintendo needs to rally focus on these two games. I don't think Donkey Kong or Bayonetta are going to be nearly as popular as their previous entries.

 

[metalslimer]

How much more expensive is the Vita right now in Japan?

Vita- 19,929
3DS XL-18,900

 

[Coen]

Numbers like these make me scared we're going to lose Nintendo.

 

[Phatmac]

I also think that having games for the 3DS at $40 is ridiculous. Gotta make these games cheaper to compete with the mobile crowd.

 

[Instro]

There's more competition in the marketplace this year though.

That's true I suppose. However, it was basically already competing against the PS3/360 heavily due to the lack of ports, so I don't think much will be changing. The console is already in the dumps and it still managed near 500k for December against 2 newly released consoles. I think there will be large enough hardware spikes from Smash and others for the system to pull in enough.

 

[MisterHero]

Yeah, the ds lite was a badass piece of industrial design in that it simultaneously became a cheaper model and a more stylish model compared to the ds fat. In comparison, the XL was more expensive and didn't make the hardware design more streamlined visually or ergonomically. Going premium with their first design revision, and not adding all that much value in the process, was probably a mistake.

Maybe battery life drove them to choose a larger one over a tinier one?

That's exactly why. Until they find a new kind of battery they're not going to go with more powerful hardware.

I suppose they could adopt yearly revis- nope.

 

[fredrancour]

It's weird to me that Pikmin 3, W101, etc are not multi-million sellers by now. There aren't a ton of games worth buying on the Wii U, so why are the few games that are worth owning not selling to every Wii U owner in existence?

When people say "I don't like Nintendo games," gaf gives them hell because Nintendo products are way more diverse than the stereotypes say.

This is pretty much that in reverse. Pikmin 3 and w101 simply weren't appealing products and would have disappointed on any hardware.