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[mackaveli]

Institutional investors, both foreign and domestic, already own the vast majority of Nintendo stock. Yamauchi controlled roughly 10%, so his estate still has significant say. You can see the stock breakdown here.

Cool, thanks.

So it's possible for an activist investor who believes Nintendo has upside value compared to the price today to invest.

It would be interesting if someone took a stake in Nintendo and the company was shaken up to see what change would occur.

 

[Palette Swap]

I hadn't realized 3DS wouldn't meet guidance. Hell, I'm surprised they now predict it down YoY in a year they released Pokemon.

Re: WiiU, when was the last time a console maker had to cut their predictions by 70% ? That seems pretty unheard of.

At this rate, it would need a spectacular turnaround just to reach GC levels.

 

[fredrancour]

I'm confuse, i thought that the 9M was the total expected, not "9M more sales"

No, I think it was that they expected to ship 9 million new wiiu units between april 2013 and march 2014, not counting whatever was sold prior to that period.

 

[Uncle Rupee]

Wii U isnt the biggest problem here. The biggest problem is that the 3DS sales are going down quite dramatically.

Dragon Quest XI incoming?

 

[ArchedThunder]

Does this mean we can expect a January/February panic mode Nintendo direct, like last year?

Panic mode incoming.

 

[Aquamarine]

When's the investor meeting?

Preliminary date is 01/29/14 / 08:00PM EST.

 

[RM8]

Not one bit surprised. I mean, lol at the WiiU forecast. Sad to see, though.

 

[SolarPowered]

It's a double edged sword. The things that people want Nintendo to do that would make them "more popular" would more than likely make them not Nintendo anymore. A big part of why Nintendo's games are so good is because they don't chase the trends everyone else chases.

The type of game software they offer is far and away the least of their problems right now. Variety of software, OS capabilities, hardware power, hardware features, marketing and networking are far bigger issues. There is a lot to tackle before they even think about changing the games they make.

Mario is not selling because it's on a system that no one (besides the core of the core Nintendo fans) want. The same can be said about a lot of other Nintendo first party games on Wii U.

 

[Clockwork5]

Does this deficit consider R&D costs? For example, if a panicked Nintendo has been hard at work on a Wii U successor due to the cataclysmic failure of the Wii U, would the R&D costs associated with that next-gen development show up in their numbers? Not that I'm suggesting this is the case...I'm just curious.

Nintendo is a publicly traded company. So yes, all annual expenses would need to be accounted for in a financial forecast.

Edit: If we at Gaf were laughing at the 9 million projected Wii u sales, just think how incredibly frustrated and pissed off the major shareholders of the company must have been with no accurate sales or budget forecasts for the last year. It is amazing that Nintendo has gotten away with this for so long.

 

[nampad]

So Nintendo managed to ship 460k units in the first two quarters.
In Q3, they sold ~750k in the US (~50k+~220k+~480k per NPD thread leaks) and ~446k in Japan (~79k+~119k+~73k+~47k+~27k+~20k+~14k+~14k+~40k+~3k+~3k+~3k+~4k per Famitsu). The Wii U performs worst in Europe but let's say it sold another~500-700k there and in other markets.

If the retailers restock accordingly, that puts them at 450-650k for Q4.

 

[BakedYams]

Priceless.

 

[metalslimer]

As long as Iwata sticks around, there's not going to be a change in strategy.

Iwata's strategy is "One game has the power to change everything". Donkey Kong might be that game! Mario Kart might be that game! Smash Bros might be that game! They think their 2014 lineup is the shit, and will sell a bunch of consoles.

We all know that's not happening at this point, but those guys over in Japan are convinced that their current strategy is just fine. Release 1 game every couple of months with literally ZERO third party support.

It's depressing to think that they might actually believe this

 

[Warm Machine]

I don't see ZeldaU ever getting released now. It'll jump to whatever machine is next. Skyward Sword wasn't that long ago and there isn't a point to releasing a game that is likely very expensive with a slim chance of breaking even on a zero hype console.

 

[Radec]

Dat drop.

Time for a big change Nintendo.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Why are people expecting a big direct thing month? Its not like they're going to start developing a ton of Wii U games in response to this news and anything expecting to be released after Zelda is probably going to be held off until their next console. I could see a normal 3DS direct but nothing special.

They could give is release dates for one. I dont care if it say spring, summer or launch window

 

[stryke]

I'm confuse, i thought that the 9M was the total expected, not "9M more sales"

Nope, they expected 9 million more to ship.

 

[Dark_castle]

What Nintendo had in the next few months.

 

[MarkusRJR]

Nintendo is completely irrelevant in half of the market they are invested in. Financially, no one is arguing they are about to go bankrupt, but a company can be in awful shape in other ways than pure cash at hand.

Yeah this situation is reminding me more and more of BlackBerry in 2010. Even BB fans would point out the billions in the war chest as proof that everything is going to be fine. You can still have a war chest of money and be irrelevant in a specific industry.

 

[1st Course]

N64
96/97 - 5.80 million
97/98 - 9.42 million
98/99 - 7.86 million
99/00 - 6.49 million
00/01 - 2.85 million
01/02 - 0.50 million

Total - 32.92 million

GameCube
01/02 - 3.80 million
02/03 - 5.76 million
03/04 - 5.02 million
04/05 - 3.92 million
05/06 - 2.35 million
06/07 - 0.73 million
07/08 - 0.16 million

Total - 21.74 million

Wii U
12/13 - 3.45 million
13/14 - 2.80 million?

Yikes

 

[ElectricKaibutsu]

I don't see ZeldaU ever getting released now. It'll jump to whatever machine is next. Skyward Sword wasn't that long ago and there isn't a point to releasing a game that is likely very expensive with a slim chance of breaking even on a zero hype console.

Zelda will release on the Wii U.

 

[Kevtones]

Pretty depressing but hopefully it brings the right changes to the company.

 

[Aostia]

Are they doomed for real this time? Or just iwata? Will they discontinue the wiiu? I want their wiiu games till 2016 at least

 

[botty]

E3 2012 was much more damning for the console. They had people starving for something next-gen, and neither Sony or MS showed anything. What did Nintendo do? They showed an enhanced edition of a game (Batman) that was already available on other platforms, a new Just Dance, and their star of the show was NintendoLand.

I agree that every e3 since the Wii U's reveal has been nothing but damning. I just see a repeat of the N64 and Playstation, where FF7 went to the PS1 and so did many gamers. It makes no sense for them to have made the Wii U so archaic on so many levels after the money they made with Wii. Not having core titles like FFXV and KH3 just shows the current gen/next gen gap even further.

 

[Hero]

Nintendo(Iwata) totally missed reading the market.

3D technology was too gimmicky for a handheld.

Gamepad controller too different/abstract for most developers and scary for consumers.

Literally everything about the Wii U from the design, marketing, price, name, etc was fucking terrible.

Time for a change at Nintendo. They need to do what Sony did after the PS3 fucked their company up and pretty much make a machine that third parties can release games on.

 

[zero_suit]

Are they doomed for real this time? Or just iwata? Will they discontinue the wiiu? I want their wiiu games till 2016 at least

.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

The hyperbole in this thread is amazing. This is a very minor loss if you look at Nintendo's yearly income history and its magnitude, and yet the sky is falling. No one's arguing they're doing well, but they're not doing terribly either, just poorly.

This is the year that they can no longer deny the market has changed. The traditional handheld market has shrunk. The traditional casual market has shrunk. Unless they can come up with another miracle like the Wii, they need to face the reality of becoming a smaller company that can get by on far less revenue than they have been used to.

 

[metalslimer]

Zelda will release on the Wii U.

Yeah Zelda Musou

 

[Mariolee]

Wow, your better than that. Very selfish of us

Better than what? I'm not running Nintendo. I'm the consumer. If Nintendo is screwing up, it's not my fault. It's management's. As a result, I don't owe them anything.

I love Nintendo more than any of the other companies, but they done screwed up and now they're paying their dues.

 

[Uncle Rupee]

I don't see ZeldaU ever getting released now. It'll jump to whatever machine is next. Skyward Sword wasn't that long ago and there isn't a point to releasing a game that is likely very expensive with a slim chance of breaking even on a zero hype console.

They could release one in the same style as ALBW, and call it NEW Legend of Zelda. Wah Wah.

 

[evanmisha]

I've never been team 'fire Iwata', but... this is really, really bad. How do they even get out of this?

 

[tarheel91]

What? How is a 750 million USD reduction in profit forecasts a minor loss?

I'm talking about a $250 million loss vs. the $1-3billion profits they're used to seeing recently.

I understand that. But what would you want to do if your an investor of Nintendo and you've seen years of decline and profits?

Do you think Nintendo's strategy is working? If not, what strategy should Nintendo do to become profitable again is the most important question to investors, management and fans.

Sure Nintendo could exist and weather the storm for years to come but I don't think investors are just going to sit patiently now with these numbers and the continuing decline. Maybe they were waiting and patient and believed in Nintendo's strategy of Wii U and 3DS, but it doesn't appear to be helping them become profitable in the immediate future.

Honestly? They're going to try to squeak by until the end of the generation, counting on a reduction of hardware costs and some big time IP moving a few units to generate a nice, if smaller than they're used to, profit. The 3DS is doing fine. Not every handheld can be the DS, but it's certainly pulling its weight and more.

I've heard of arguing semantics before, but damn...

Do you really not see a difference between terrible and poor? It's the difference between being sick vs. dying, a low C vs. failing, 2-14 vs. 5-11 in the NFL.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Beast mode 3DS.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Will they discontinue the wiiu?

No.

 

[God Dayumm]

Nintendo cannot drop the Wii U right now. They will have to sail with that mistake at least a couple more years. Meanwhile, they should be working on improving their online services so that their next console can actually compete. A rebrand of the Wii U should also be considered without having to discontinue the product, as well as a price drop.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Are they doomed for real this time? Or just iwata? Will they discontinue the wiiu? I want their wiiu games till 2016 at least

Iwata will be fine. He will accept a nice golden parachute and live out his days in peace.

 

[Dang0]

Man, this really sucks. I mean I knew things wouldn't be good, but I didn't think it would be this bad. I just hope whatever changes Nintendo makes end up being positive for gamers. I really don't want Nintendo to switch to smartphones.

 

[d34thfrom4bov3]

As much as I love my Wii U this is horrible. I play it more than my other systems, more than my One which was 200 dollars more and has become a netflix machine now. I honestly have no idea how you fix this though other than coming out with a new system. But even that would hurt them. Those people who've had the Wii U for the last year or just picked it up would be mad as hell.

Panic Direct incoming with crazy release date promises for their big games?

 

[Hip Hop]

I really really hope the Wii U picks up.

I feel bad that they are making all these awesome games on a dying console. It's like they are wasting the talent for nothing. I will try support, but this is giving me no confidence to do so.

In any case, Smash Bros and Mario Kart need to pick up the slack before I think of picking one up again. It's a lose-lose situation for them with me.

 

[7DollarHagane]

Here's a simple message to Nintendo

- Make games like you used to for the NES and SNES, stuff like Castlevania, Metroid, Double Dragon and such. Yes I know they are third party games but that along with its first party stuff sold well.

- Get your act together on the internet side of things with a nice shop and easy to use multiplayer gaming

- Drop the kiddy act. PLEASE... its just awful and its got to go. I much prefer the Mario from Super Mario World then the squealing one from Galaxy.

- Not everything needs to be in 3D - i loved New Super Mario Bros on the Wii, as long as its good I'll play it!

Games like they used to for the NES and SNES are not popular and do not sell well anymore. They are for the most part putting out software that equals or beats their output from the golden years, if you really look at it without nostalgia interfering.

The problem is that the "larger" audience wants big dumb shooter things on tv or small dumb pretty things on phones and while Nintendo could probably try to cater to that audience it's kind of a need that's being filled already.

Is Nintendo going to make a game that makes Call of Duty fans happy? Is Nintendo going to make a game that 40 year old ladies that play candy crush will play, and actually pay them anything to play it? Absolutely not and they would be stupid to waste money trying.

Can you actually imagine Nintendo making a game that the average dumb american that shops at gamestop and buys call of duty and madden would want to play? What would it be?

 

[Onesimos]

This is very unfortunate and it may be time for management change in the higher levels of Nintendo.

 

[Warm Machine]

Zelda will release on the Wii U.

Detach yourself from the emotions. Would you release a $40-$50 million dollar game onto that user base?

 

[ffdgh]

Are they doomed for real this time? Or just iwata? Will they discontinue the wiiu? I want their wiiu games till 2016 at least

They're doomed if they don't learn from their past mistakes...or Iwata it could go either way. They'll continue wii u support and ride things out.

 

[Guymelef]

No, I think it was that they expected to ship 9 million new wiiu units between april 2013 and march 2014, not counting whatever was sold prior to that period.

Nope, they expected 9 million more to ship.

Wow, and i thought they were crazy with the 9M total numbers.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Better than what? I'm not running Nintendo. I'm the consumer. If Nintendo is screwing up, it's not my fault. It's management's. As a result, I don't owe them anything.

I love Nintendo more than any of the other companies, but they done screwed up and now they're paying their dues.

I said us, US.. it was sarcasm.. #yikes

 

[cafemomo]

Beast mode 3DS.

The 3DS already had its beast mode last year with DQVII, MoHu4, Pokémon & P&D.

Its nothing but a downhill slide from now on unless DQXI comes on the thing

 

[Aquamarine]

Are they doomed for real this time? Or just iwata? Will they discontinue the wiiu? I want their wiiu games till 2016 at least

Everyone is fed up with Nintendo's Operating Losses.

This is the third year in a row with losses in its core business (minus expenses and depreciation) for a company that's traditionally been so good with keeping their core business afloat.

It's getting really, really annoying that Nintendo has had the Wii U out for a full year and yet they still plan on losing just as much money in their core business as they did last year.

 

[LeleSocho]

The hyperbole in this thread is amazing. This is a very minor loss if you look at Nintendo's yearly income history and its magnitude, and yet the sky is falling. No one's arguing they're doing well, but they're not doing terribly either, just poorly.

You think that a company that in 30 years of history for the second time of its entire life has not made profit isn't absolutely terrible?
We're not talking about your typical company that bleeds money every other day... that's a pretty big deal for Nintendo.

 

[vinnygambini]

On paper, it seems like the Gamecube era for Nintendo all over again; however, it is much more troublesome as both their source of revenues are declining, handheld and console.

Furthermore, Nintendo was profitable during the Gamecube era. Conversely, Nintendo has not been profitable for three consecutive years.

Nintendo will most likely announce a share buyback program at the investors meeting at the end of January as their shares will underperform much like they did during 2002-2006.

However, things cannot remain as they are. Investors will most certainly not be pleased as the promised ''1 Billion US operating profit'' has transformed itself into a 350 million US operating loss - a staggering difference.

Iwata, enough.

 

[the androgyne]

I don't know why investors are pushing for Nintendo games on phones. Their flagship titles would be awful with phone controls, and the economics don't make sense.

Everyone seems to assume they'd just dump existing games onto phones, and in a sense Nintendo might be to blame for that opinion based on what they've said about it in the past.

But is there really any problem with them making exclusives for phones that you know, like their other machines, are tailored to the hardware experience?

That sounds a lot more like what they'd do to me, and if they did, there's probably no risk of people not buying actual Nintendo hardware since those too would have their own exclusives.

They're never going to make their own phone, so what's the harm in putting out games on existing devices, that would do nothing but make them money and expand their IP's.

 

[RM8]

If only WiiU had never existed. Using WiiU's exact same hardware but going with a cheaper gimmick and a completely new game would have been a much better idea. The Wii brand is useless these days, it was such an oversight to reuse it. Oh well, this has been discussed to death.