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[metalslimer]

Detach yourself from the emotions. Would you release a $40-$50 million dollar game onto that user base?

It's probably going to be higher than that. If they actually do a full production Zelda in HD costs will balloon.

 

[casinoman921]

Wii U isnt the biggest problem here. The biggest problem is that the 3DS sales are going down quite dramatically.

I disagree. At least for the 3DS, you know they've worked their butt off to get software out there and release the cheaper 2DS. Hopefully they've accepted the fact it's never going to sell DS numbers and we're going back to pre-DS days. They can still pull in profits on handhelds.

The Wii U is killer. It's proof right now that Nintendo shouldn't belong in the console market and the Wii was right-place, right-time.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

The 3DS had every possible thing thrown at it already: Every major portable franchise you can think of, lower and premium SKUs, price drop, and bundles, all within the span of the last 12-18 months.

Damn.

And I won't even comment on the Wii U situation. That shit is just sad.

To compare, I wonder if Sony will hit their 5M Vita/PSP forecast for 2014 FY

 

[royalan]

Yeah this situation is reminding me more and more of BlackBerry in 2010. Even BB fans would point out the billions in the war chest as proof that everything is going to be fine. You can still have a war chest of money and be irrelevant in a specific industry.

Exactly.

The amount of money in the war chest is not the point here.

The point is that Nintendo is on the verge of heading into a death spiral. If they don't make major changes soon they run the risk of allowing themselves to become irreparably irrelevant to the industry.

It's exactly what happened with Blackberry. They rested on their profitability in the face of overwhelming competition from the iPhone. They didn't think they had to react because they had so much cash. By the time they realized those cash reserves were in danger it was too late: they were so irrelevant, so out-of-touch with the industry that even their GOOD moves were ignored.

 

[gigantor21]

GameCube
01/02 - 3.80 million
02/03 - 5.76 million

Wii U
12/13 - 3.45 million
13/14 - 2.80 million?

Jesus fucking Christ.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

The 3DS had every possible thing thrown at it already: Every major portable franchise you can think of, lower and premium SKUs, price drop, and bundles, all within the span of the last 12-18 months.

Damn.

And I won't even comment on the Wii U situation. That shit is just sad.

Yeah, seriously. This was the best year yet for the 3DS and it performs worse than 2012. The party is over. Well, not yet, but people are leaving.

 

[MisterHero]

Nintendo(Iwata) totally missed reading the market.

3D technology was too gimmicky for a handheld.

Gamepad controller too different/abstract for most developers and scary for consumers.

Literally everything about the Wii U from the design, marketing, price, name, etc was fucking terrible.

Time for a change at Nintendo. They need to do what Sony did after the PS3 fucked their company up and pretty much make a machine that third parties can release games on.

They have one. It's Wii U.

Nintendo's not going to release new hardware and increase the amount of time to begin profiting. PS360 revisions worked because they ultimately became cheaper; a Wii U successor would be more expensive.

Further, releasing a year ahead can be argued as one of Wii U's mistakes. What would happen to a successor released ~3 years ahead of a generational transition?

 

[Hero]

Yeah Zelda Musou

At this point they really should just ride out the Wii U for another year or two and just save Zelda HD as their flagship launch title for the next system.

 

[Cheerilee]

I don't see Wii numbers?? Please include them.

N64
96/97 - 5.80 million
97/98 - 9.42 million
98/99 - 7.86 million
99/00 - 6.49 million
00/01 - 2.85 million
01/02 - 0.50 million

Total - 32.92 million

GameCube
01/02 - 3.80 million
02/03 - 5.76 million
03/04 - 5.02 million
04/05 - 3.92 million
05/06 - 2.35 million
06/07 - 0.73 million
07/08 - 0.16 million

Total - 21.74 million

Wii
06/07 - 5.84 million
07/08 - 18.61 million
08/09 - 25.95 million
09/10 - 20.53 million
10/11 - 15.08 million
11/12 - 9.84 million
12/13 - 3.98 million
13/14 - 0.47 million?

Total - 100.30 million

Wii U
12/13 - 3.45 million
13/14 - 2.80 million?

 

[Stiflers Mom]

Well, I did my part, and bought a Wii U at launch...

I hope Nintendo recovers, and learn a bit for the next time they launch a new console..

 

[Uncle Rupee]

They're never going to make their own phone

You can't imagine their next hardware being a Nintendo Game & Phone? A phone that can push its content to your television with an add-on? So you can buy one game, but play it both at home as a console game while also on the go?

 

[MarkusRJR]

The 3DS already had its beast mode last year with DQVII, MoHu4, Pokémon & P&D.

Its nothing but a downhill slide from now on unless DQXI comes on the thing

Basically. This year had MH4 in Japan, a worldwide release Pokémon X/Y, Animal Crossing, a new Zelda, and a new cheaper model of the 3DS. With all of that they are still forecasting less than last year's results. It's all a slow downward incline from here on unless something major happens.

 

[fredrancour]

At this point they really should just ride out the Wii U for another year or two and just save Zelda HD as their flagship launch title for the next system.

If they were intending to do Zelda U as a surprise e3 reveal for christmas launch like 3d world, they'll probably still finish it and count it as HD dev practice, then move on to the next zelda.

 

[donny2112]

I don't see any way out of this mess for Nintendo other than finding a partner. The most obvious one, and the only one that would send their stock skyrocketing, is Apple. But I have a hard time imagining that partnership not being terrible, both from a game quality and long-term profit standpoint.

The best possible partner would be Sony. Drop the Wii U and make PS4 games. Sony drops the Vita and leaves portables for Nintendo. Not a 3rd-party relationship, a partnership. Would be amazing. Unfortunately, they'd both probably rather die.

Outside of that...Amazon? Microsoft? I don't know, but they either need a co-branded machine or an exclusive software partnership. Going mobile will kill them faster than sticking to their guns, and going 3rd party will begin a long slide into irrelevance.

It's astounding how often you live up to your tag.

Microsoft wanted to buy them at the beginning of the GCN/XBX era, so that's out as an option. Can't see a U.S. company being willing to have a real partnership that isn't just a prelude to a buyout/takeover. If Yamauchi and/or Kutaragi were still at Nintendo/Sony, couldn't see that happening, either, but with both out, an actual partnership may be workable there next gen. If Nintendo wanted something unique in their games, they could support that peripheral themselves. Sony's finances are in such a state that it'd give Nintendo the leverage to make sure the potential SNES CD-ROM debacle didn't happen again, too. It'd be almost like setting right what went wrong 20 years ago. Scarily poetic. o.o

 

[Aostia]

Everyone is fed up with Nintendo's Operating Losses.

This is the third year in a row with losses in its core business (minus expenses and depreciation) for a company that's traditionally been so good with keeping their core business afloat.

It's getting really, really annoying that Nintendo has had the Wii U out for a full year and yet they still plan on losing just as much money in their core business as they did last year.

Thats why I asked. Now those are legitimate question because of what you said. What is your position on my doubts and fears?

 

[Anth0ny]

I don't see ZeldaU ever getting released now. It'll jump to whatever machine is next. Skyward Sword wasn't that long ago and there isn't a point to releasing a game that is likely very expensive with a slim chance of breaking even on a zero hype console.

I don't think they're the kind of company to scrap major, currently announced titles for their console and move them to the next one. At the very least, Zelda would be on both Wii U and its successor, like Twilight Princess.

The Wii U will get Mario Kart, Donkey Kong, Zelda, Smash, SMTxFE, X, Yarn Yoshi, Hyrule Warriors, Bayo 2, etc. These titles are going to get them through 2014 and 2015.

Beyond that? It gets tough. Is it really worth it for Retro to start on a new Wii U title at this point? EAD Tokyo? Monolith Soft? Seems like it would be a better idea at this point to assign such teams to 3DS games, or start work on the next console, so a year like Wii U 2013 never happens again.

 

[megamerican]

I don't see ZeldaU ever getting released now. It'll jump to whatever machine is next. Skyward Sword wasn't that long ago and there isn't a point to releasing a game that is likely very expensive with a slim chance of breaking even on a zero hype console.

It's a no win situation for them. Either they shit directly on their truest fans, or they throw a lot of good money after bad.

Only thing I could see is a cross gen launch like they did with TP but that was only possible as the Wii was closer to the the GCN in terms of power.

 

[LiK]

truly the solution to this issue

if only you worked for nintendo then this would have all been avoided

Of course, would've had better sales.

 

[RM8]

Guys, they're not relating a new system soon. The costs are prohibitive and the risk too massive, it's probably safer to ride the WiiU for a while. I mean, it's a pretty bad situation regardless :/

 

[Instro]

Nintendo(Iwata) totally missed reading the market.

3D technology was too gimmicky for a handheld.

Gamepad controller too different/abstract for most developers and scary for consumers.

Literally everything about the Wii U from the design, marketing, price, name, etc was fucking terrible.

Time for a change at Nintendo. They need to do what Sony did after the PS3 fucked their company up and pretty much make a machine that third parties can release games on.

I think its too late to be honest. Over the last 2 decades they have cultivated a fanbase that now largely ignores 3rd party games on their home consoles, because of their insistence on treating 3rd parties like garbage and in turn 3rd parties ignoring their hardware. I'm not sure how you can fix that, and its going to be extremely difficult to bring those types of consumers back to their home consoles to buy 3rd party titles when said types of consumers have long been entrenched in the Xbox/PS/PC markets.

 

[AniHawk]

considering the wii u will be at 6.25m ww shipped by march (if they meet the forecasts), i think it's increasingly likely the console may not outsell the dreamcast or even the saturn.

what do they reasonably forecast for the wii u for 2014-2015? 4m... when it will probably sell 2m?

 

[Duxxy3]

They have one. It's Wii U.

Nintendo's not going to release new hardware and increase the amount of time to begin profiting. PS360 revisions worked because they ultimately became cheaper, and a Wii U successor would be more expensive.

Further, releasing a year ahead can be argued as one of Wii U's mistakes. What would happen to a successor released ~3 years ahead of a generational transition?

Couple problems.

The developers don't give a shit about the controller. It just makes cheap/quick ports a pain to do.

And it's weaker than the PS3/360, so ports of past gen games are an issue as well.

 

[Mpl90]

Iwata started taking some actions for the future, good ones (R&D reorganisation, NERD being established, even more hiring, some of his actions as NoA COO), but big changes are needed. Nintendo needs to pop out of their fuc*ing bundle and open their eyes and seeing how the world really is. Their culture needs to change (even if without forgetting who they are).

 

[Aquamarine]

N64
96/97 - 5.80 million
97/98 - 9.42 million
98/99 - 7.86 million
99/00 - 6.49 million
00/01 - 2.85 million
01/02 - 0.50 million

Total - 32.92 million

GameCube
01/02 - 3.80 million
02/03 - 5.76 million
03/04 - 5.02 million
04/05 - 3.92 million
05/06 - 2.35 million
06/07 - 0.73 million
07/08 - 0.16 million

Total - 21.74 million

Wii U
12/13 - 3.45 million
13/14 - 2.80 million?

Wii
06/07 - 5.84 million
07/08 - 18.61 million
08/09 - 25.95 million
09/10 - 20.53 million
10/11 - 15.08 million
11/12 - 9.84 million
12/13 - 3.98 million
13/14 - 1.2 million?

Total - around 101.5 million

 

[Sakura]

Detach yourself from the emotions. Would you release a $40-$50 million dollar game onto that user base?

Why not? The Gamecube and N64 install base wasn't really that large when Windwaker or OoT were released on them. SS was released on a huge install base but didn't sell much better than WW and MM, and sold less than OoT and TP. A console Zelda will always sell fine to the core Nintendo fans in my opinion, and most of those fans will probably have a Wii U by the time the game comes out.

They also could always release the game as a cross gen title, like they did for TP.

 

[metalslimer]

As for the 3DS, in 2014 when a parent can get their kid a 139 Kindle HD that is much more powerful and can do perform many more functions, who is going to be looking at the 199 3DS XL. Even at discounted prices it is far too expensive. And introduce the fact that 99 dollar phones will show up this year off contract that blow away the 3DS then there is a severe problem with the pricing of the system.

 

[Majine]

Nintendo: "It's still good! It's still good!"

 

[Htown]

Everyone seems to assume they'd just dump existing games onto phones, and in a sense Nintendo might be to blame for that opinion based on what they've said about it in the past.

But is there really any problem with them making exclusives for phones that you know, like their other machines, are tailored to the hardware experience?

That sounds a lot more like what they'd do to me, and if they did, there's probably no risk of people not buying actual Nintendo hardware since those too would have their own exclusives.

They're never going to make their own phone, so what's the harm in putting out games on existing devices, that would do nothing but make them money and expand their IP's.

Because putting out software on phones undermines the most consistently successful part of their business (handheld hardware and software sales), while doing nothing to fix their biggest problem (console hardware and software sales).

 

[gigantor21]

The 3DS had every possible thing thrown at it already: Every major portable franchise you can think of, lower and premium SKUs, price drop, and bundles, all within the span of the last 12-18 months.

Damn.

This, as well.

There is absolutely ZERO reason the 3DS should have sold less than it did last year, after everything Nintendo did with it. No way in hell is their handheld output this year going to match 2013, by any stretch of the imagination.

I seriously can't think of what else Nintendo can do short term except another big price-cut, which would be especially painful when they're losing money as it is.

 

[Zinthar]

N64

Wii
06/07 - 5.84 million
07/08 - 18.61 million
08/09 - 25.95 million
09/10 - 20.53 million
10/11 - 15.08 million
11/12 - 9.84 million
12/13 - 3.98 million
13/14 - 0.47 million?

Total - 100.30 million

Wii U
12/13 - 3.45 million
13/14 - 2.80 million?

Well then, that just means there are 94 million people waiting on the sidelines. Right??

Need moar Just Dance.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

From 9 -->2.8 million is a huge drop. Same with the 3DS. 9M expectation after selling like crap is lol.

The 3DS already had its beast mode last year with DQVII, MoHu4, Pokémon & P&D.

Its nothing but a downhill slide from now on unless DQXI comes on the thing

I was being sarcastic.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

And it's weaker than the PS3/360, so ports of past gen games are an issue as well.

People still believe this???

 

[Uncle Rupee]

At the very least, we can probably expect that Majora's Mask will be getting a remaster on 3DS. It's a relatively cheap thing for them to do that is guaranteed bank, and I'm guessing Grezzo has been working on it since they completed OOT3D.

 

[Duxxy3]

People still believe this???

Developers have said it.

 

[EatChildren]

How do they even get out of this?

Stop living in a conservative bubble, make aggressive strides to expand software development culture on a global scale, listen closer to third parties and the echoes of the market they are competing in as much as they like to think they're not, be attentive to rapidly changing world of technology and economics, and understand that an overwhelming majority of customers do not want to put down US$300 for an unappealing piece of hardware that has scarce releases of Super Mario in between shovelware when for an additional $200+ dollars they can get a system with significantly broader software and genre variety, routine software releases, and a strong promise of continued support into the future.

Nintendo exists on the same planet and in the same market as everybody else mingling in home/portable technology and software. This isn't the 90s, where a dedicated game machine that just does what it does and it's Sony or Sega or Nintendo or whatever is good enough. The way customers perceive and value both software and hardware has changed. The expectations have changed. The risks and rewards have changed. The development environment has changed. The economy has changed. The customer culture of buying hardware has changed. And all of these things have changed rapidly and dramatically over just the last few years.

Despite this Nintendo operates as if nothing has changed and they can keep playing the same game they've been playing for the better part of two decades, despite the competition they seem to deliberately ignore rapidly adapting and growing alongside the rest of the world. People do not want to buy a $300 Mario box. They don't want to buy this, and wait three/four/five months for the next noteworthy game, one that might not even be a franchise or genre they're interested in. Not everybody who likes Mario likes Zelda, or likes The Wonderful 101, or likes Metroid, or F-Zero, or everything else. And that just makes the situation worse, when someone can put that $300 towards another platform that's going to have far more software released far quicker.

It's an investment, for customers and shareholders, and at the moment Nintendo is a bad investment.

 

[dolemite]

Is 2.8 million still too high?

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Developers have said it.

I'm talking about real developers, not fictitious ones.

 

[Sandfox]

Zelda is probably just going to be leased for the Wii U and then get an enhanced port for the next console or something.

The 3DS has probably already peaked and pretty much had to software to sell to most people who want one at the current price.

As for the 3DS, in 2014 when a parent can get their kid a 139 Kindle HD that is much more powerful and can do perform many more functions, who is going to be looking at the 199 3DS XL. Even at discounted prices it is far too expensive. And introduce the fact that 99 dollar phones will show up this year off contract that blow away the 3DS then there is a severe problem with the pricing of the system.

I'm expecting a price drop this year in response to the Vita's eventual price drop in Japan.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Why not? The Gamecube and N64 install base wasn't really that large when Windwaker or OoT were released on them. SS was released on a huge install base but didn't sell much better than WW and MM, and sold less than OoT and TP. A console Zelda will always sell fine to the core Nintendo fans in my opinion, and most of those fans will probably have a Wii U by the time the game comes out.

They also could always release the game as a cross gen title, like they did for TP.

Games cost more to make now then they did two generations ago. Several times more infact

 

[Mdk7]

New Nintendo home console at E3 2016.
BELIEVE.

 

[RM8]

Am I the only one not impressed by 3DS having a bigger 2012 than 2013? Animal Crossing is way more of a "user base expanding" game than core titles like MH and Pokémon.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

People still believe this???

Regardless of what they believe, PS3 and 360 are on the downward slope, and software development will dry up on them inside the next 2 years outside of maybe a few yearly sports titles and shooters, games that the Wii U audience isn't exactly eating up. Wii U will get nothing from PS4 and Xbox One. With hardware sales so low, there is absolutely no reason for a third party to support that system with anything, not ports and certainly nothing exclusive.

 

[Aquamarine]

Is 2.8 million still too high?

They definitely have a chance of missing it.

In the first six months of the fiscal year they only sold 460K consoles, and in Q2 they actually sold -20,000 consoles in Europe / Other.

 

[Sakura]

Yeah this situation is reminding me more and more of BlackBerry in 2010. Even BB fans would point out the billions in the war chest as proof that everything is going to be fine. You can still have a war chest of money and be irrelevant in a specific industry.

I don't really see the comparison. What does BlackBerry do other than their mobile devices? Nintendo has multiple revenue streams. Even if the 3DS isn't doing DS numbers, it still is a healthy platform. I don't see Nintendo being 'doomed' or whatever just because one of their products flops. It sucks sure, and I imagine internal changes will need to be made, but it's not as though they can't weather it.

 

[Ashodin]

Stop living in a conservative bubble, make aggressive strides to expand software development culture on a global scale, listen closer to third parties and the echoes of the market they are competing in as much as they like to think they're not, be attentive to rapidly changing world of technology and economics, and understand that an overwhelming majority of customers do not want to put down US$300 for an unappealing piece of hardware that has scarce releases of Super Mario in between shovelware when for an additional $200+ dollars they can get a system with significantly broader software and genre variety, routine software releases, and a strong promise of continued support into the future.

Nintendo exists on the same planet and in the same market as everybody else mingling in home/portable technology and software. This isn't the 90s, where a dedicated game machine that just does what it does and it's Sony or Sega or Nintendo or whatever is good enough. The way customers perceive and value both software and hardware has changed. The expectations have changed. The risks and rewards have changed. The development environment has changed. The economy has changed. The customer culture of buying hardware has changed. And all of these things have changed rapidly and dramatically over just the last few years.

Despite this Nintendo operates as if nothing has changed and they can keep playing the same game they've been playing for the better part of two decades, despite the competition they seem to deliberately ignore rapidly adapting and growing alongside the rest of the world. People do not want to buy a $300 Mario box. They don't want to buy this, and wait three/four/five months for the next noteworthy game, one that might not even be a franchise or genre they're interested in. Not everybody who likes Mario likes Zelda, or likes The Wonderful 101, or likes Metroid, or F-Zero, or everything else. And that just makes the situation worse, when someone can put that $300 towards another platform that's going to have far more software released far quicker.

It's an investment, for customers and shareholders, and at the moment Nintendo is a bad investment.

I hate that my Nintendo/PC strategy is slowly looking like it'll be just PC.

 

[Uncle Rupee]

Developers have said it.

First of all, Bayonetta 2 looks just as good as any PS360 game. So no. And second, if you read what the devs say the Wii U has features that, if you take the time to use them properly, can offset any perceived weaknesses. The problem is they couldn't afford to take the time to really drill down and take advantage of them because the games had to be out for the launch. In some cases they were good to use without any issues, which is why ME3 looks better on Wii U than PS3.

 

[LiK]

Stop living in a conservative bubble, make aggressive strides to expand software development culture on a global scale, listen closer to third parties and the echoes of the market they are competing in as much as they like to think they're not, be attentive to rapidly changing world of technology and economics, and understand that an overwhelming majority of customers do not want to put down US$300 for an unappealing piece of hardware that has scarce releases of Super Mario in between shovelware when for an additional $200+ dollars they can get a system with significantly broader software and genre variety, routine software releases, and a strong promise of continued support into the future.

Nintendo exists on the same planet and in the same market as everybody else mingling in home/portable technology and software. This isn't the 90s, where a dedicated game machine that just does what it does and it's Sony or Sega or Nintendo or whatever is good enough. The way customers perceive and value both software and hardware has changed. The expectations have changed. The risks and rewards have changed. The development environment has changed. The economy has changed. The customer culture of buying hardware has changed. And all of these things have changed rapidly and dramatically over just the last few years.

Despite this Nintendo operates as if nothing has changed and they can keep playing the same game they've been playing for the better part of two decades, despite the competition they seem to deliberately ignore rapidly adapting and growing alongside the rest of the world. People do not want to buy a $300 Mario box. They don't want to buy this, and wait three/four/five months for the next noteworthy game, one that might not even be a franchise or genre they're interested in. Not everybody who likes Mario likes Zelda, or likes The Wonderful 101, or likes Metroid, or F-Zero, or everything else. And that just makes the situation worse, when someone can put that $300 towards another platform that's going to have far more software released far quicker.

It's an investment, for customers and shareholders, and at the moment Nintendo is a bad investment.

Damn, I vote EC to replace Iwata.

 

[metalslimer]

Am I the only one not impressed by 3DS having a bigger 2012 than 2013? Animal Crossing is way more of a "user base expanding" game than core titles like MH and Pokémon.

Animal Crossing only released in Japan. That does't explain the 3DS doing worse YoY vs the Paper Mario holiday in 2012. The market is declining.

 

[the androgyne]

You can't imagine their next hardware being a Nintendo Game & Phone? A phone that can push its content to your television with an add-on? So you can buy one game, but play it both at home as a console game while also on the go?

Sarcasm right? They have no experience or desire and even if they did what kind of idiot would go up against IOS and Android with what would no doubt be a proprietary OS?

 

[MisterHero]

Couple problems.

The developers don't give a shit about the controller. It just makes cheap/quick ports a pain to do.

And it's weaker than the PS3/360, so ports of past gen games are an issue as well.

Tell that to developers adding functions for PS Remote Play and Smartglass. And just like every controller, they don't have to use parts they want to use. OffTV itself is just fine.

Publishers developing in excess is their own problem. If they wanted to make games that were portable (vs. graphical showcases) to more platforms they could have.

note: I'm not saying Nintendo's blameless, but these are also long-lasting issues not exclusive to them.