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[Mpl90]

Do those sales include downloads, virtual console etc?

Digital Skus of retail games are included.
Download only titles aren't.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Nintendo has many, many financial quarters ahead of it before a successor for Wii U is released. Boy, investors won't be happy.

The only, sensible thing that can be done immediately is to drop the tablet from the Wii U. Many people will not like it, but there isn't any other short-term countermeasure I can see now.

 

[spekkeh]

That's what I said a while back. Say what you want about the Dreamcast, but Sega tried hard to be the best but unfortunately they couldn't overcome their past decisions. Nintendo on the other hand currently resembles Randy Moss when he quit on the Vikings... all the talent in the world but too much of an ego to ever succeed.

Blah, Dreamcast is severely overrated due to being the mutt nobody liked imo. In terms of giving it all they got, Pikmin 3 and Mario 3D World are vastly better games than Crazy Taxi and Sonic Adventures and the like.

 

[Canis lupus]

About next handheld again, if they launch it in Fall 2015, looking at how multi releases fared on next gen, I'd say they should totally launch it with Pokémon X2 and Y2, multi with 3DS. At the right price, the console would certainly have a big launch, and they could manage titles like 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, etc.etc. far better the year after.

I mean, Pokémon X2 and Y2 for 2015 is inevitable, right?

I don't think pumping software like that is feasible for them, they're struggling with the Wii U as it is and it affected the console when the 3DS needed saving.

Also Mario Kart comes out every 3 years: 2005(DS). 2008(Wii). 2011(3DS), 2014(WiiU), MK9 is 2017 and for their next handheld. Ever since MK DS the franchise always comes out within 1 year after the handheld launch, and the Spring after it's 1st full year on the market.

I think the next handheld is Fall 2016 at the earliest.

What this means? Nintendo has a long road ahead until they can bring out a new one. 3DS has already peaked, Wii U isn't getting better, they don't have the 3rd party software to rely on to sustain the systems until they are getting phased out.

 

[Oppo]

Can a Wii U run iOS?

I'm kidding. Sorta.

I do wonder if they will ever succumb to putting Mario out on a phone. I know, I know, but this is dire.

 

[MoogleWizard]

It's a shame that the Wii U is such a colossal failure that it negates all of the 3DS' success. With how different the market is today and all the talk of handhelds being dead because of mobile in the last few years, I personally find it impressive that it's still the best selling system in the industry. It did not meet Nintendo's forecasts but those forecasts were delusional anyway.

On the Wii U front, I think the system came out both too late and too early. Had they released it in 2011 or 2010 even, it would have done better. There would have been no competition from the PS4 and Xbone and "Wii" was still a relatively big brand. Instead they let the Wii rot and die, along with the brand name and released the Wii U when they didn't have the games ready and when the brand was already dead. If they were having problems with HD development, they should have supported the Wii for two more years and launched the Wii U a year later with a different name and with 3D World and Mario Kart as launch games.

 

[ash_ag]

No. Some people are saying Nintendo doesn't have the ability to create a PS4-like console. Yes, they have the money and the ability.

Can they compete with the PS4/XO with similar HW? That is a entirely different matter.

People who say they literally "can't make" powerful, PC-like hardware probably ignore basic computer architecture matters. But that's not the point, and I don't think it ever was. In my opinion, it was always about politics.

And no, Nintendo shouldn't only offer one product. They are a videogame company. They don't do offer anything outside that. No movies, no insurance, no music, no camera's, no TVs, no soundsystems etc.. If that one product fails, they are done for the generation. With two products they can always fall back to the one that is doing well.

I'm speaking of an ideal situation, where such product manages to catch on. Similarly to when Nintendo DS first released, and there has been concerns about the brand catching on compared to Game Boy (and Nintendo falsely "affirming" the Game Boy brand is not necessarily replaced, through Game Boy Micro), if they decided to go with one system, they would still have a backup plan (AniHawk suggested a "cheap" and a "standard" SKU of the same product family, which is an example of a backup plan). I suppose that they could extend their platform on multiple systems (and offer "multiple products"), but that's for the long run, and if the platform succeeds.

As for Nintendo being a video game company, I would argue that this shouldn't constrain them. They aren't like Sony (an electronics company) or Microsoft (an IT company). They should expand their businesses on entertainment, rather than make cameras, TVs or sound systems. If they acquired OLM (an animation studio), it would be a good start.

 

[SmokyDave]

What about the introduction of smartphones that ate in into Nintendo's marketshare? All things considered, the 3DS is doing pretty good.

What about it? They didn't exactly sneak in during the night, anyone could see that mobile gaming was going to rock the world. Well, apparently anyone except for Sony, Nintendo and many core gamers, anyway.

I'm not keen on this whole 'their market has been stolen away, what do you expect?' mentality. You can explain away the Wii U failing in the same way. Competitors made far better products, bearing that in mind is the Wii U doing OK?

i misspoke because i was only looking at the outside japan segment. the gba's ahead by about 13m or so. regardless, we're talking about an industry eaten away by mobile. the gaming explosion seems to have been canceled out by erosion.

the tie ratio is actually slightly higher on the 3ds because the 3ds is also slated to sell about 5-6m less than the gba in the same timeframe.

Fair enough. Consider me disappointed by dedicated handhelds in general then. 66M (in a year) on the given install base just doesn't seem 'good' to me.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

The only, sensible thing that can be done immediately is to drop the tablet from the Wii U. Many people will not like it, but there isn't any other short-term countermeasure I can see now.

Yeah, and the only people who won't like it will be the early adopters who will have to justify to themselves that yes, the tablet is worth it and I didn't get ripped off.

 

[Riki]

Can a Wii U run iOS?

I'm kidding. Sorta.

I do wonder if they will ever succumb to putting Mario out on a phone. I know, I know, but this is dire.

Putting Mario on phones would be a short term solution at best. That's not what they need right now.

 

[tehrik-e-insaaf]

I think some of you guys are missing the point about all this - there really isn't much Iwata could have done - really - he had the option of turning the company into a F2P/mobile company four years ago and embracing that business model like many Japanese publishers did - or to take a risk and try to stay in the packaged software business and spending tremendous resources scaling Nintendo's capabilities to meet the bar of high-end software development without overextending themselves.

At that time people were questioning whether Sony was going to make a new console as the company was nearly bankrupt (and still is almost bankrupt - it's basically a zombie firm with a ridiculous amount of debt), and Microsoft had pretty much abandoned Japan (the source of 30% of Nintendo's gross profits). It isn't as if Nintendo could even have gone third-party - the only real options were to embrace the iPad and iPhone which were nascent platforms in Japan and had a style of games that Nintendo had never made.

If somehow Iwata were removed - the company would most likely move towards mobile and most likely free to play models since Iwata and his executive team are the last holdouts in the entire Japanese video game industry keeping traditional complete games a priority. I mean I guess some of you would want that because you want more free to play games, but I'm guessing a lot of you wouldn't be too happy about that. A new CEO would likely kill off Monolith Soft since they have been a perpetual cost center for Nintendo over the years, and probably cut off the dozen or so companies that Nintendo works with and keeps feeding like Grezzo, etc. I'd imagine they would kill Bayonetta 2 (or send it to die with zero marketing to cut their losses) and probably kill niche series like Pikmin from ever being produced ever again. Platinum in its current form would probably disappear since Nintendo has been effectively paying their bills over the past two years. MGR:R barely made them any money - they were hired as contractors - and a sequel to that game isn't going to be enough to keep everyone at Platinum employed. Nintendo's overall hiring plans would probably be frozen, and staff would be cut - probably at the high-end developers like EAD Tokyo which over hired to stock pile human resources for HD development over the past two years. Under a hypothetical new CEO, I wouldn't expect much in the way of new AAA console games from Nintendo if Iwata were fired since he is one of the few people who still believes in making them.

Shareholders aren't going to replace Iwata with someone that is going to make hardcore AAA IPs as a first party or as a third party for PS/Xbox platforms, or have Nintendo build a competitor to those platforms. The failure of the Wii U and the failure of their packaged software business in general (consider that out of 40+ million 3DS consoles - Zelda sold peanuts during the Holiday season) is going to lead investors to focus on someone that is going to embrace contemporary trends in gaming. That means lots of F2P an P2W and other things like low development costs on mobile to maximize gross profits. This has implications for the entire industry.

A world where Nintendo gives up on premium software is a scary one because it is going to drive expectations of all customers and spill across the entire industry. EA might be able to ride out the next few years with cheap updates to Madden and FIFA licenses and force yearly upgrades - Activision might have World of Warcraft money - which while declining rapidly - still keeps the lights on. But the former is effectively a peasant of Microsoft (and praying to be bought out by Microsoft or Disney), and the latter is deep in debt and is banking on a single game (Destiny) to deliver any profitability next fiscal year while depending on its Chinese investors to provide cash if they need it. Who knows maybe Destiny does great - but the millions it will sell to a core userbase aren't going to be enough to help Sony/MS drive their user bases up to 70-80 million needed to really achieve profitability at-scale.

Beyond that, Ubi's Just Dance money isn't going to sustain itself and Assassin's Creed is a franchise-in-decline. If Watchdogs fails to sell ridiculous numbers, I would expect Ubi to fully embrace F2P and focus heavily on mobile going forward. I can see them running to Apple and offering to make Rayman an iPad exclusive in return for cash payments. Take Two is already contracting its portfolio, and now it's more or less a two-products a year company. Bioshock4 and GTA6 might just be persistent online worlds with monthly subscriptions or a F2P model. I have a feeling NBA2K is going to go the F2P route in a few years as well - because that's probably where EA is going to take NBA Live to try and compete - and unlike the NFL - the NBA is probably not going to cut an exclusive with Take Two to preserve pricing power and risk lawsuits.

Even people like Peter Moore who have mastered the art of selling out their current employer for their next job and want nothing more than to see Nintendo suffer, are most likely trembling at hearing about Nintendo's current-year numbers.

 

[Steroyd]

It's making money and selling well; ergo it's a success as far as an electronics company is concerned.

It was a bad sign at the start of the 3DS and should have been a warning shot, he even offered a wage cut or something in the first year of 3DS sales (Don't get me started on the 2DS).

The only reason I believe the 3DS was turned around because Nintendo was such a dominant brand in the handheld space that leaving a graveyard of competitors in it's wake sans PSP, there is no such luxury in the home console space and it shows.

 

[Aostia]

Cool. I'm just used to people expecting everything I say to have some relation to the Vita. Which is fair enough, I guess.


Don't you think that 'set to outpace the GBA' is an incredibly low bar though? The games market has exploded since back then, it ought to be way ahead already.

and setting the bar with the DS it soo high, because now that market is decrising. kept our the two extremes (GBA and DS) it's still on par with other handhelds

 

[Duxxy3]

The only, sensible thing that can be done immediately is to drop the tablet from the Wii U. Many people will not like it, but there isn't any other short-term countermeasure I can see now.

For a second let's say that nintendo ends up doing this. It seems inconceivable, but nobody thought the 2ds would happen either.

If it somehow did happen, how would nintendo market it? As a cheap hd Nintendo machine? As the successor to the wii and its motion controls?

 

[Tricky I Shadow]

Nintendo deserve this and has practically earned it....they’ve been pretty much useless as a company for quite a while now.

It’s crazy to think just how far they’ve sunk recently. Talk about crashing and burning. They won't survive if nothing changes.

 

[SolidSnakex]

The thing is, even if they just port some old games to iOS (or let someone else do this, Nintendo can't devote their ressources to that), this makes one more platform Nintendo titles are available to. Which results in less incentives for iOS-owners to buy a Nintendo system for (for instance) Mario. Also, iOS and Android are competing with the one market where they are still strong: Handhelds. While I don't think they should do this, they would probably still be better off with porting Virtual Console games to other consoles or PC than to iOS / Android.

Mobile is where the money is at and where people are demanding their games. No one is really buying the 3DS to play old Nintendo games anyway. And like I said, they should get around to actually creating an account system so that they can allow one purchase of a Mario or Zelda to be playable on all devices connected to that account (so one purchase of SMB would be playable on mobile, Wii U, and 3DS).

It's the type of move Iwata is going to have to make if he actually wants to convince anyone that he's looking to change the company for the better. The Wii U is turning into dead weight for them, so they're going to need money to come from somewhere else than just the 3DS. Mobile devices will bring in a lot of money for them. There was a recent thread where Square is basically dominated mobile charts in Japan with old versions of Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Can you imagine what those charts would look like if you could buy old versions of Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon? Yes, it's going to be scary for Nintendo to put their games on other devices. But I honestly don't think that it'll hurt the handheld or console business. If anything it may start to groom a younger generation to look into their systems.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Digital Skus of retail games are included.
Download only titles aren't.

Thanx

 

[Coolwhip]

Nothing we didn't know.

Now get to it Nintendo, time for action instead of words.

 

[Maidenpool?]

So now Nintendo's job is to take the top off the defense?

I just realized my analogy made absolutely no sense... I love when that happens.

 

[BowieZ]

For a second let's say that nintendo ends up doing this. It seems inconceivable, but nobody thought the 2ds would happen either.

If it somehow did happen, how would nintendo market it? As a cheap hd Nintendo machine? As the successor to the wii and its motion controls?

At this point, any alternative to the current marketing would be an improvement. Iwata even personally shitting on each Wii U and telling customers to eat shit, in a global ad campaign would probably have a net positive impact on total sales.

But the main 'hook' of removing the GamePad is simply to reduce the price drastically.

An HD Nintendo machine, for 150 bucks, would sell much better.

 

[spekkeh]

I think some of you guys are missing the point about all this - there really isn't much Iwata could have done - really - he had the option of turning the company into a F2P/mobile company four years ago and embracing that business model like many Japanese publishers did - or to take a risk and try to stay in the packaged software business and spending tremendous resources scaling Nintendo's capabilities to meet the bar of high-end software development without overextending themselves.

At that time people were questioning whether Sony was going to make a new console as the company was nearly bankrupt (and still is almost bankrupt - it's basically a zombie firm with a ridiculous amount of debt), and Microsoft had pretty much abandoned Japan (the source of 30% of Nintendo's gross profits). It isn't as if Nintendo could even have gone third-party - the only real options were to embrace the iPad and iPhone which were nascent platforms in Japan and had a style of games that Nintendo had never made.

If somehow Iwata were removed - the company would most likely move towards mobile and most likely free to play models since Iwata and his executive team are the last holdouts in the entire Japanese video game industry keeping traditional complete games a priority. I mean I guess some of you would want that because you want more free to play games, but I'm guessing a lot of you wouldn't be too happy about that. A new CEO would likely kill off Monolith Soft since they have been a perpetual cost center for Nintendo over the years, and probably cut off the dozen or so companies that Nintendo works with and keeps feeding like Grezzo, etc. I'd imagine they would kill Bayonetta 2 (or send it to die with zero marketing to cut their losses) and probably kill niche series like Pikmin from ever being produced ever again. Platinum in its current form would probably disappear since Nintendo has been effectively paying their bills over the past two years. MGR:R barely made them any money - they were hired as contractors - and a sequel to that game isn't going to be enough to keep everyone at Platinum employed. Nintendo's overall hiring plans would probably be frozen, and staff would be cut - probably at the high-end developers like EAD Tokyo which over hired to stock pile human resources for HD development over the past two years. Under a hypothetical new CEO, I wouldn't expect much in the way of new AAA console games from Nintendo if Iwata were fired since he is one of the few people who still believes in making them.

Shareholders aren't going to replace Iwata with someone that is going to make hardcore AAA IPs as a first party or as a third party for PS/Xbox platforms, or have Nintendo build a competitor to those platforms. The failure of the Wii U and the failure of their packaged software business in general (consider that out of 40+ million 3DS consoles - Zelda sold peanuts during the Holiday season) is going to lead investors to focus on someone that is going to embrace contemporary trends in gaming. That means lots of F2P an P2W and other things like low development costs on mobile to maximize gross profits. This has implications for the entire industry.

A world where Nintendo gives up on premium software is a scary one because it is going to drive expectations of all customers and spill across the entire industry. EA might be able to ride out the next few years with cheap updates to Madden and FIFA licenses and force yearly upgrades - Activision might have World of Warcraft money - which while declining rapidly - still keeps the lights on. But the former is effectively a peasant of Microsoft (and praying to be bought out by Microsoft or Disney), and the latter is deep in debt and is banking on a single game (Destiny) to deliver any profitability next fiscal year while depending on its Chinese investors to provide cash if they need it. Who knows maybe Destiny does great - but the millions it will sell to a core userbase aren't going to be enough to help Sony/MS drive their user bases up to 70-80 million needed to really achieve profitability at-scale.

Beyond that, Ubi's Just Dance money isn't going to sustain itself and Assassin's Creed is a franchise-in-decline. If Watchdogs fails to sell ridiculous numbers, I would expect Ubi to fully embrace F2P and focus heavily on mobile going forward. I can see them running to Apple and offering to make Rayman an iPad exclusive in return for cash payments. Take Two is already contracting its portfolio, and now it's more or less a two-products a year company. Bioshock4 and GTA6 might just be persistent online worlds with monthly subscriptions or a F2P model. I have a feeling NBA2K is going to go the F2P route in a few years as well - because that's probably where EA is going to take NBA Live to try and compete - and unlike the NFL - the NBA is probably not going to cut an exclusive with Take Two to preserve pricing power and risk lawsuits.

Even people like Peter Moore who have mastered the art of selling out their current employer for their next job and want nothing more than to see Nintendo suffer, are most likely trembling at hearing about Nintendo's current-year numbers.

In terms of business I think Nintendo should branch out to Serious games, and pounce on the worldwide gamification hype, and should have branched out to exergaming partnering with e.g. Nike. They are/were in the ideal position for this out of any large gaming company.

I think we should all agree that the day Nintendo dies is the day the music dies in terms of our own hobby.

 

[Stop It]

That is a ginormous difference in expectations. Nintendo's stock ain't gonna like that...

In the UK we call this sort of thing a Profits Warning. The reaction in the stock markets is usually pretty harsh.

I hate to say this but Iwata needs to go. Current strategy at Nintendo is not working and the usual "Chuck Mario at it" is not going to sell the Wii U. The outdated hardware of the Wii U is nothing compared to a software and online infrastructure that was surpassed by the 360 7 years ago.

Nintendo clearly thought the holiday season would save the Wii U and help them meet their projections. Aside from them bring obviously overly optimistic months ago, they should've known that the launch of PS4 and Xbox One would've dominated and frankly should've revised their forecasts earlier.

Sad figures really but hopefully Nintendo might start much needed reform to compete in the current digital+ online age.

 

[Riki]

Mobile is where the money is at and where people are demanding their games. No one is really buying the 3DS to play old Nintendo games anyway. And like I said, they should get around to actually creating an account system so that they can allow one purchase of a Mario or Zelda to be playable on all devices connected to that account (so one purchase of SMB would be playable on mobile, Wii U, and 3DS).

It's the type of move Iwata is going to have to make if he actually wants to convince anyone that he's looking to change the company for the better. The Wii U is turning into dead weight for them, so they're going to need money to come from somewhere else than just the 3DS. Mobile devices will bring in a lot of money for them. There was a recent thread where Square is basically dominated mobile charts in Japan with old versions of Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Can you imagine what those charts would look like if you could buy old versions of Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon? Yes, it's going to be scary for Nintendo to put their games on other devices. But I honestly don't think that it'll hurt the handheld or console business. If anything it may start to groom a younger generation to look into their systems.

Square doesn't have consoles to support and Square has been killing their franchise loyalty pretty quickly this way.
This is not feasible for Nintendo.

 

[Toski]

I think some of you guys are missing the point about all this - there really isn't much Iwata could have done - really - he had the option of turning the company into a F2P/mobile company four years ago and embracing that business model like many Japanese publishers did - or to take a risk and try to stay in the packaged software business and spending tremendous resources scaling Nintendo's capabilities to meet the bar of high-end software development without overextending themselves.

At that time people were questioning whether Sony was going to make a new console as the company was nearly bankrupt (and still is almost bankrupt - it's basically a zombie firm with a ridiculous amount of debt), and Microsoft had pretty much abandoned Japan (the source of 30% of Nintendo's gross profits). It isn't as if Nintendo could even have gone third-party - the only real options were to embrace the iPad and iPhone which were nascent platforms in Japan and had a style of games that Nintendo had never made.

If somehow Iwata were removed - the company would most likely move towards mobile and most likely free to play models since Iwata and his executive team are the last holdouts in the entire Japanese video game industry keeping traditional complete games a priority. I mean I guess some of you would want that because you want more free to play games, but I'm guessing a lot of you wouldn't be too happy about that. A new CEO would likely kill off Monolith Soft since they have been a perpetual cost center for Nintendo over the years, and probably cut off the dozen or so companies that Nintendo works with and keeps feeding like Grezzo, etc. I'd imagine they would kill Bayonetta 2 (or send it to die with zero marketing to cut their losses) and probably kill niche series like Pikmin from ever being produced ever again. Platinum in its current form would probably disappear since Nintendo has been effectively paying their bills over the past two years. MGR:R barely made them any money - they were hired as contractors - and a sequel to that game isn't going to be enough to keep everyone at Platinum employed. Nintendo's overall hiring plans would probably be frozen, and staff would be cut - probably at the high-end developers like EAD Tokyo which over hired to stock pile human resources for HD development over the past two years. Under a hypothetical new CEO, I wouldn't expect much in the way of new AAA console games from Nintendo if Iwata were fired since he is one of the few people who still believes in making them.

Shareholders aren't going to replace Iwata with someone that is going to make hardcore AAA IPs as a first party or as a third party for PS/Xbox platforms, or have Nintendo build a competitor to those platforms. The failure of the Wii U and the failure of their packaged software business in general (consider that out of 40+ million 3DS consoles - Zelda sold peanuts during the Holiday season) is going to lead investors to focus on someone that is going to embrace contemporary trends in gaming. That means lots of F2P an P2W and other things like low development costs on mobile to maximize gross profits. This has implications for the entire industry.

A world where Nintendo gives up on premium software is a scary one because it is going to drive expectations of all customers and spill across the entire industry. EA might be able to ride out the next few years with cheap updates to Madden and FIFA licenses and force yearly upgrades - Activision might have World of Warcraft money - which while declining rapidly - still keeps the lights on. But the former is effectively a peasant of Microsoft (and praying to be bought out by Microsoft or Disney), and the latter is deep in debt and is banking on a single game (Destiny) to deliver any profitability next fiscal year while depending on its Chinese investors to provide cash if they need it. Who knows maybe Destiny does great - but the millions it will sell to a core userbase aren't going to be enough to help Sony/MS drive their user bases up to 70-80 million needed to really achieve profitability at-scale.

Beyond that, Ubi's Just Dance money isn't going to sustain itself and Assassin's Creed is a franchise-in-decline. If Watchdogs fails to sell ridiculous numbers, I would expect Ubi to fully embrace F2P and focus heavily on mobile going forward. I can see them running to Apple and offering to make Rayman an iPad exclusive in return for cash payments. Take Two is already contracting its portfolio, and now it's more or less a two-products a year company. Bioshock4 and GTA6 might just be persistent online worlds with monthly subscriptions or a F2P model. I have a feeling NBA2K is going to go the F2P route in a few years as well - because that's probably where EA is going to take NBA Live to try and compete - and unlike the NFL - the NBA is probably not going to cut an exclusive with Take Two to preserve pricing power and risk lawsuits.

Even people like Peter Moore who have mastered the art of selling out their current employer for their next job and want nothing more than to see Nintendo suffer, are most likely trembling at hearing about Nintendo's current-year numbers.

So whats the future of the industry/Nintendo? F2P? Mobile? Mobile won't be getting money from the "High Fidelity gamer," and if it is F2P, then it almost vindicates MS and Nintendo, except Nintendo went too low on the specs of the Wii U.

 

[Floex]

Blah, Dreamcast is severely overrated due to being the mutt nobody liked imo. In terms of giving it all they got, Pikmin 3 and Mario 3D World are vastly better games than Crazy Taxi and Sonic Adventures and the like.

If you're going to compare Wii-U's top games atleast compare it to the best Dreamcast games. Rez & Shenmue beat the shit out of those two (well, definitely Pikmin).

 

[gogogow]

What about it? They didn't exactly sneak in during the night, anyone could see that mobile gaming was going to rock the world. Well, apparently anyone except for Sony, Nintendo and many core gamers, anyway.

I'm not keen on this whole 'their market has been stolen away, what do you expect?' mentality. You can explain away the Wii U failing in the same way. Competitors made far better products, bearing that in mind is the Wii U doing OK?

What about what?! So they didn't see it coming or they did see it coming, so what? Nintendo are supporting the 3DS as best as they can. What else can they do?

And no, you can not explain the Wii U in the same way. Are you for real? They are different products, competing in a totally different market. Can't believe you would say something like that.

What about the 3DS is cheaper, has WAY more games from first and third parties (esp. in Japan) and it's direct competitor is (kinda) dead? Now take the Wii U and reverse all the points I just made and there you have Wii U's problems.

 

[Steroyd]

Mobile is where the money is at and where people are demanding their games. No one is really buying the 3DS to play old Nintendo games anyway. And like I said, they should get around to actually creating an account system so that they can allow one purchase of a Mario or Zelda to be playable on all devices connected to that account (so one purchase of SMB would be playable on mobile, Wii U, and 3DS).

It's the type of move Iwata is going to have to make if he actually wants to convince anyone that he's looking to change the company for the better. The Wii U is turning into dead weight for them, so they're going to need money to come from somewhere else than just the 3DS. Mobile devices will bring in a lot of money for them. There was a recent thread where Square is basically dominated mobile charts in Japan with old versions of Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Can you imagine what those charts would look like if you could buy old versions of Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon? Yes, it's going to be scary for Nintendo to put their games on other devices. But I honestly don't think that it'll hurt the handheld or console business. If anything it may start to groom a younger generation to look into their systems.

Nintendo copying Sony's PlayStation NOW and opening up their old catalog across everything connected to the Internet would be a smart move that doesn't hurt their current handheld business buuuuut... can they even be trusted with their own back catalogue based off their Virtual Console offerings?

 

[Mpl90]

I think some of you guys are missing the point about all this - there really isn't much Iwata could have done - really - he had the option of turning the company into a F2P/mobile company four years ago and embracing that business model like many Japanese publishers did - or to take a risk and try to stay in the packaged software business and spending tremendous resources scaling Nintendo's capabilities to meet the bar of high-end software development without overextending themselves.

At that time people were questioning whether Sony was going to make a new console as the company was nearly bankrupt (and still is almost bankrupt - it's basically a zombie firm with a ridiculous amount of debt), and Microsoft had pretty much abandoned Japan (the source of 30% of Nintendo's gross profits). It isn't as if Nintendo could even have gone third-party - the only real options were to embrace the iPad and iPhone which were nascent platforms in Japan and had a style of games that Nintendo had never made.

If somehow Iwata were removed - the company would most likely move towards mobile and most likely free to play models since Iwata and his executive team are the last holdouts in the entire Japanese video game industry keeping traditional complete games a priority. I mean I guess some of you would want that because you want more free to play games, but I'm guessing a lot of you wouldn't be too happy about that. A new CEO would likely kill off Monolith Soft since they have been a perpetual cost center for Nintendo over the years, and probably cut off the dozen or so companies that Nintendo works with and keeps feeding like Grezzo, etc. I'd imagine they would kill Bayonetta 2 (or send it to die with zero marketing to cut their losses) and probably kill niche series like Pikmin from ever being produced ever again. Platinum in its current form would probably disappear since Nintendo has been effectively paying their bills over the past two years. MGR:R barely made them any money - they were hired as contractors - and a sequel to that game isn't going to be enough to keep everyone at Platinum employed. Nintendo's overall hiring plans would probably be frozen, and staff would be cut - probably at the high-end developers like EAD Tokyo which over hired to stock pile human resources for HD development over the past two years. Under a hypothetical new CEO, I wouldn't expect much in the way of new AAA console games from Nintendo if Iwata were fired since he is one of the few people who still believes in making them.

Shareholders aren't going to replace Iwata with someone that is going to make hardcore AAA IPs as a first party or as a third party for PS/Xbox platforms, or have Nintendo build a competitor to those platforms. The failure of the Wii U and the failure of their packaged software business in general (consider that out of 40+ million 3DS consoles - Zelda sold peanuts during the Holiday season) is going to lead investors to focus on someone that is going to embrace contemporary trends in gaming. That means lots of F2P an P2W and other things like low development costs on mobile to maximize gross profits. This has implications for the entire industry.

A world where Nintendo gives up on premium software is a scary one because it is going to drive expectations of all customers and spill across the entire industry. EA might be able to ride out the next few years with cheap updates to Madden and FIFA licenses and force yearly upgrades - Activision might have World of Warcraft money - which while declining rapidly - still keeps the lights on. But the former is effectively a peasant of Microsoft (and praying to be bought out by Microsoft or Disney), and the latter is deep in debt and is banking on a single game (Destiny) to deliver any profitability next fiscal year while depending on its Chinese investors to provide cash if they need it. Who knows maybe Destiny does great - but the millions it will sell to a core userbase aren't going to be enough to help Sony/MS drive their user bases up to 70-80 million needed to really achieve profitability at-scale.

Beyond that, Ubi's Just Dance money isn't going to sustain itself and Assassin's Creed is a franchise-in-decline. If Watchdogs fails to sell ridiculous numbers, I would expect Ubi to fully embrace F2P and focus heavily on mobile going forward. I can see them running to Apple and offering to make Rayman an iPad exclusive in return for cash payments. Take Two is already contracting its portfolio, and now it's more or less a two-products a year company. Bioshock4 and GTA6 might just be persistent online worlds with monthly subscriptions or a F2P model. I have a feeling NBA2K is going to go the F2P route in a few years as well - because that's probably where EA is going to take NBA Live to try and compete - and unlike the NFL - the NBA is probably not going to cut an exclusive with Take Two to preserve pricing power and risk lawsuits.

Even people like Peter Moore who have mastered the art of selling out their current employer for their next job and want nothing more than to see Nintendo suffer, are most likely trembling at hearing about Nintendo's current-year numbers.

I'd say it depends also on who is the CEO. If it's someone strictly connected to Iwata, despite being a freshman, I could see him not embracing mobile as you say. Still, I don't believe, with a new CEO, Nintendo would completely abandon traditional market, like at all. Unless that CEO is someone like Square Enix's CEO and he completely changes the BoD (I'm sure the current one would never go on mobile in that way).

Still, I can see, even under Iwata, Nintendo on mobile with just advertising content, like Reggie hinted at last month.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Square doesn't have consoles to support and Square has been killing their franchise loyalty pretty quickly this way.
This is not feasible for Nintendo.

It is feasible. And if they don't think it's feasible then they can just watch and see the killing that Sony makes once Playstation Now launches. And their games are nowhere near as desirable to the general public as Nintendo's. What isn't feasible is continuing to pretend that everything is going to be okay if they keep doing what they're doing.

 

[gimmmick]

Who have known that the wiiu would have tanked this hard. The fad is done, hopefully the same will follow suit with mobile gaming.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Software scheduling is one of their biggest issues right now. Whatever they do, they need to make sure that the most impressive games they have are ready for launch of the new systems. If that's pokemon on handhelds and Zelda at home, then that's what you do. Delay them, rush them, do whatever the fuck it takes to have these games ready for launch.

The 3DS and Wii U launches were utterly pathetic. The Wii launched with a new Zelda and Wii Sports. They need to make sure their next console launches like the Wii rather than the last two.

Why launch a new console that is going to face the same exact problems as the current one?

It's not like third parties are going to suddenly embrace a new Nintendo console, and consumers are suddenly going to desire a Nintendo console that once again, lacks all the hottest new games that Microsoft and Sony always get.

 

[spekkeh]

If you're going to compare Wii-U's top games atleast compare it to the best Dreamcast games. Rez & Shenmue beat the shit out of those two (well, definitely Pikmin).

Good point. (although they sit at a fairly similar metacritic score, pikmin 3 87, shenmue 88 and rez 89)

 

[FreedomFighter]

Horrible numbers. Simply horrible. This misses everyone's most pessimistic expectations for operating income expectations by $400M+ USD and baseline estimates by over $650M+ USD. No one seriously thought they were going to hit $1 B USD in operating profits. Most people were seeing Nintendo hitting 30% of the target as a baseline. That they are expecting a loss for the year of $350M USD is mind-boggling.

Only four things can explain these losses IMHO:

1. Nintendo's gross margins on software must have shrunk dramatically. Meaning that they are barely making any money on their own software much less third party software which has all dramatically dried up on both of their platforms globally. This bodes very badly for Nintendo in general - even if they were able to go third-party and hypothetically sell 2-3X the number of games (which I very much doubt) - what this shows is that Nintendo has lost its pricing power at retail - people aren't ready and willing to pay the Nintendo premium.

2. Nintendo bled money at retail trying to push hardware - far more than anyone expected - they must be eating close to a $100+ loss per Wii U sold right now or more - not just because of manufacturing cost - but because they are literally having to compensate retailers to provide them with shelf space and having to eat the price drop at the same time. This is horrible - because even if they take that much of a loss - the low gross margins on their own first-party games isn't sufficient to help them break even.

3. Nintendo isn't going to get Mario Kart or Smash out by early April - otherwise they would have been able to book orders under the current fiscal year. It looks like both games are going to be delayed well into the summer or into the Fall now. I am almost 100% positive that if it were even possible to get the games out by April or May - Nintendo would have done everything in their power to do so. It looks like Nintendo still hasn't effectively transitioned to HD development - not because of capability - but because they want to preserve gross margin based on their lower expected revenue numbers - and it's compromising their ability to get projects out the door on-time.

4. Nintendo is playing shell games with their accounting - booking contractual payments to Intelligent Systems and their other closely related entities as operating losses for tax purposes but which are effectively asset purchases - it means that they are dramatically restructuring their teams and it's going to be far more expensive than we thought.

If these estimates hold up - Nintendo will have generated a $1 B+ operating loss over the past three years. Here's the kicker though: Nintendo is still sitting on over $1 B+ in inventory that they haven't impaired yet (the IR report makes no mention of it). There is a good chance that over 80% of that is Wii U hardware which means that it's going to continue to be a drag on earnings over the next twelve months.

In any case, I don't foresee any major changes for Q3 happening. Nintendo is still going to engage in a buyback of 5% - which is going to drain their cash by another $1 B USD.

That means in three years Nintendo's war chest will have been depleted close to $2.5 billion USD from inventory impairment, operating losses, and share repurchases. Another $500M USD is going to be gone for asset / real estate purchases and capital investments. Their next hardware projects are going to require about ~$1.5 B USD in capital reserves at a minimum that are going to be tied up in the next two years as they wind down their existing platforms, and I don't see third-party licensing revenue coming back in a big way to offset declining gross margins on their first-party software.

Basically that means Nintendo could burn through ~$4 B in cash throughout this entire cycle and in anticipation of the next, with a very high cost structure intact. Like Sony, they will have effectively wiped out cumulative years of profit.

If we assume that Nintendo keeps building up human resources this coming year to meet their hiring targets, they are probably going to break-even in terms of operating profit for the next fiscal year or make a slight profit - but I'm even second guessing my own ability to understand Nintendo's gross margins now - someone at NOA or NOE is effectively writing giant checks to retailers to keep the channel alive - and that's really not good at all - Apple was in this same position in the late 90s and had to create their own retail stores to stop bleeding money to major retailers. Nintendo isn't going to have the investor support to launch a giant retail project in the US and EU, particularly when they no longer have proven pricing power which would be the primary argument to go that route.

Difficult time to be a Nintendo shareholder.

Ok, I'm depressed now. Poor Ninty.

 

[Rizsparky]

Why launch a new console that is going to face the same exact problems as the current one?

It's not like third parties are going to suddenly embrace a new Nintendo console, and consumers are suddenly going to desire a Nintendo console that once again, lacks all the hottest new games that Microsoft and Sony always get.

Exactly, Nintendo needs to scrap the console idea and fully embrace handhelds.

 

[Kerub]

Is that Wii U number realistic? It seems a bit high to me.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

So, shit results eh. Quelle surprise...

It's time for Iwata to stand down. He has damaged Nintendo time and again to protect his own position within the company, and he is doing so again.

Three points - 3DS has peaked, the Wii U needs to be taken out the back and shot and they need a third pillar.

1. Dedicated handheld gaming is in decline, massively so. There will always be a market since there are always going to be kids who don't have smartphones or access to a tablet without supervision. However, they cannot rely on that market to keep the lights on.

2. I haven't been one to call for Nintendo to kill the Wii U, but as of this point I think they need to just release the bare minimum of games and then summarily kill it. Then look at releasing hardware comparable to the PS4 but at a lower price once the technology has matured. I would say they get Kart, Zelda and Smash out, then kill it. Move Bayonetta and X to the new console as launch titles. If they play the game right they will be able to get PS4 power for a build cost of $200 or lower in 2015. They will be able to significantly undercut Sony and MS.

3. Resurrect the Gameboy brand for the market mentioned in the first point and make the third pillar a Nintendo smartphone publishing house. They can do it the way of Amazon/Sony and have their own store for Android and partner with phone makers to have the store pre-installed. It would be easier than making their own OS for which they have neither the expertise nor the resources.

On a more general note, Nintendo need to seriously rethink their attitude to the internet and implement an online account system for purchases. The current system is a complete joke. Tying purchases to hardware is stupid in an era when the competition are encouraging cross buy and using the cloud to sync gameplay progression across devices.

Make no mistake, this is horrible for Nintendo, but it comes after years of not adapting to new market conditions. They have continually failed to do so and now the window of opportunity is closing quickly. I fear for their future.

 

[Baleoce]

Something clearly needs to change. The question is, how much of the old Ninty do we lose in the process.

 

[geordiemp]

I can imagine the pressure on Big N is enormous.

Many of us would 'suspect' that if Nintendo released one of their heavy hitters like the last Mario on Sony / MS consoles they would probably sell GTA V numbers and make a fortune. Nintendo is not sega, there games have very high metacritic and would be adapted in millions if the entry price was just $ 60.....

But people with MS / Sony consoles don't want to buy a low spec hardware console just to play a few games.

We have 2 Ps3, 2 360 and 2 Ps4 under the 2 x TV's in our living room - there is no room for more console hardware.

 

[Chindogg]

Excellent post.

This is the exact summation of my fears across the industry in the coming months. Sadly there are so many people posting like they think that just because GTA5 sold a billion that its the norm of the current industry rather than the outlier. Even CoD is in decline with every iteration.

Everything's going mobile/F2P. As I and a few others have stated several times over the last few months, budgets for major games have increased exponentially while prices have actually fallen against inflation. Steam sales, mobile, and PS+ have conditioned customers to expect to wait out all but the very major franchises in hopes for a price drop, causing a self fulfilling prophecy.

While indie gaming is flourishing, the traditional gaming landscape (consoles, major publishers) are in great decline. So many dev studios have crashed in the last 3 years alone. A major publisher just evaporated with all their IPs scattered about (some being bought by F2P mobile studios.) Which is why whenever I read the active joy and guffaws of failings like the Wii U and Vita it disturbs me as a patron of this industry.

It's NEVER good to see a company that's been a staple of the industry have such troubles in hopes that it'll suddenly "wake up" and do all the things you want it to do. All three major companies are in huge trouble right now with F2P and mobile eating their lunch. Despite the huge console launches software is STILL down overall, and first party entries from MS and Sony don't even come close to cracking the top 10 of their own launches.

Dark times are coming and I greatly fear for the future of traditional gaming.

 

[SmokedMeat]

It is feasible. And if they don't think it's feasible then they can just watch and see the killing that Sony makes once Playstation Now launches. And their games are nowhere near as desirable to the general public as Nintendo's. What isn't feasible is continuing to pretend that everything is going to be okay if they keep doing what they're doing.

Nintendo can't even get N64 games on the Wii U. They can't get SNES and N64 games on 3DS. Nintendo could never do something like Playstation Now.

Nintendo's abilities are more in line with making Urban Champion work on the U's gamepad.

 

[SmokyDave]

What about what?! So they didn't see it coming or they did see it coming, so what? Nintendo are supporting the 3DS as best as they can. What else can they do?

Open an app store. The eShop isn't really the same thing at all. They also could've dropped the price of their software by £10 / $10 to reflect the realities of the new market. They might not want to devalue their software, but others have already done it for them.

And no, you can not explain the Wii U in the same way. Are you for real? They are different products, competing in a totally different market. Can't believe you would say something like that.

What about the 3DS is cheaper, has WAY more games from first and third parties (esp. in Japan) and it's direct competitor is (kinda) dead? Now take the Wii U and reverse all the points I just made and there you have Wii U's problems.

My point was that the Wii U can't be explained away by competitors producing a more compelling product, so why is it OK to look at mobile gaming eating handheld gaming and shrug as if it's some sort of unstoppable beast we all have to accept?

Well, apart from the fact that it is an unstoppable beast, anyway. It's just really weird to watch people ambivalently accept a massive contraction as some sort of inevitability, when a few years back the consensus was that it absolutely wouldn't happen.

Eh, I dunno. I should probably stop rambling along these lines given that I'm one of the people that saw mobile domination as an inevitability and embraced it early. I'm effectively arguing against myself so I'm going to end up totally baffled.

 

[tanasten]

Releasing the WiiU withouth Gamepad at 200$ with no rebranding at all should save the generation. They can promote the console altogether with the WiiU Gamepad and as a Wii HD. They must get the correct prices into the games to: WiiSports packaged for 30$, WiiFit U for 30 with the podometer, Both Mario and Luigi together in a pack of 40$, Mario 3D World for 40$ too, Wii Party U 45$ with the controller... They should only charg 50$ for top gamer's games, like X or Bayonetta 2.

It's not going to be like the Wii era again, that's crystal clear, but they should get more console sales and then, they can still earn money with games.

 

[Sandfox]

Why launch a new console that is going to face the same exact problems as the current one?

It's not like third parties are going to suddenly embrace a new Nintendo console, and consumers are suddenly going to desire a Nintendo console that once again, lacks all the hottest new games that Microsoft and Sony always get.

They would have to take a different approach that attracts core gamers who are interested in buying the big name 3rd party games.

 

[gogogow]

Nintendo can't even get N64 games on the Wii U. They can't get SNES and N64 games on 3DS. Nintendo could never do something like Playstation Now.

Nintendo's abilities are more in line with making Urban Champion work on the U's gamepad.

Sony neither, that´s why they bought out Gaikai.

 

[Yoshi]

Mobile is where the money is at and where people are demanding their games. No one is really buying the 3DS to play old Nintendo games anyway. And like I said, they should get around to actually creating an account system so that they can allow one purchase of a Mario or Zelda to be playable on all devices connected to that account (so one purchase of SMB would be playable on mobile, Wii U, and 3DS).

It's the type of move Iwata is going to have to make if he actually wants to convince anyone that he's looking to change the company for the better. The Wii U is turning into dead weight for them, so they're going to need money to come from somewhere else than just the 3DS. Mobile devices will bring in a lot of money for them. There was a recent thread where Square is basically dominated mobile charts in Japan with old versions of Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Can you imagine what those charts would look like if you could buy old versions of Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon? Yes, it's going to be scary for Nintendo to put their games on other devices. But I honestly don't think that it'll hurt the handheld or console business. If anything it may start to groom a younger generation to look into their systems.

If you can buy on a device you already own (as a new gamer) SMB, SMB2, SMB3, SMW, SML, SML2, how much desire will you have to buy another device to play new Mario platformers soon? If you can buy on a device you already own Zelda 1, 2, 3, 4, how much desire will you have to buy another device to play new Zelda games soon? The list goes on. Nintendo would get some money out of this, but they would devalue their brands severely and would offer comeptition for their own main market - handhelds.

 

[geordiemp]

This is the exact summation of my fears across the industry in the coming months. Sadly there are so many people posting like they think that just because GTA5 sold a billion that its the norm of the current industry rather than the outlier. Even CoD is in decline with every iteration.

Everything's going mobile/F2P. As I and a few others have stated several times over the last few months, budgets for major games have increased exponentially while prices have actually fallen against inflation. Steam sales, mobile, and PS+ have conditioned customers to expect to wait out all but the very major franchises in hopes for a price drop, causing a self fulfilling prophecy.

While indie gaming is flourishing, the traditional gaming landscape (consoles, major publishers) are in great decline. So many dev studios have crashed in the last 3 years alone. A major publisher just evaporated with all their IPs scattered about (some being bought by F2P mobile studios.) Which is why whenever I read the active joy and guffaws of failings like the Wii U and Vita it disturbs me as a patron of this industry.

It's NEVER good to see a company that's been a staple of the industry have such troubles in hopes that it'll suddenly "wake up" and do all the things you want it to do. All three major companies are in huge trouble right now with F2P and mobile eating their lunch. Despite the huge console launches software is STILL down overall, and first party entries from MS and Sony don't even come close to cracking the top 10 of their own launches.

Dark times are coming and I greatly fear for the future of traditional gaming.

I disagree, If Nintendo brought out say the last WiiU Mario to a wider audience as a third party to sony / MS - it would sell close to GTA V numbers......

They can chose to massively increase sales ANYTIME they want by going third party for home console....and bringing their loved franchises to a wider 170 million audience (SONY + MS)

I am not saying they should or will, but.....it would make allot of money

 

[Coolwhip]

This is the exact summation of my fears across the industry in the coming months. Sadly there are so many people posting like they think that just because GTA5 sold a billion that its the norm of the current industry rather than the outlier. Even CoD is in decline with every iteration.

Everything's going mobile/F2P. As I and a few others have stated several times over the last few months, budgets for major games have increased exponentially while prices have actually fallen against inflation. Steam sales, mobile, and PS+ have conditioned customers to expect to wait out all but the very major franchises in hopes for a price drop, causing a self fulfilling prophecy.

While indie gaming is flourishing, the traditional gaming landscape (consoles, major publishers) are in great decline. So many dev studios have crashed in the last 3 years alone. A major publisher just evaporated with all their IPs scattered about (some being bought by F2P mobile studios.) Which is why whenever I read the active joy and guffaws of failings like the Wii U and Vita it disturbs me as a patron of this industry.

It's NEVER good to see a company that's been a staple of the industry have such troubles in hopes that it'll suddenly "wake up" and do all the things you want it to do. All three major companies are in huge trouble right now with F2P and mobile eating their lunch. Despite the huge console launches software is STILL down overall, and first party entries from MS and Sony don't even come close to cracking the top 10 of their own launches.

Dark times are coming and I greatly fear for the future of traditional gaming.

Add to the doom speak that hardware was only up 5% yoy in the US, with 2 new console launches >_>

 

[Jonnyram]

I think some of you guys are missing the point about all this - there really isn't much Iwata could have done - really - he had the option of turning the company into a F2P/mobile company four years ago and embracing that business model like many Japanese publishers did - or to take a risk and try to stay in the packaged software business and spending tremendous resources scaling Nintendo's capabilities to meet the bar of high-end software development without overextending themselves.

I disagree with this. Even staying in the packaged software business, there are several things they could have done differently.

Wii U is a *terrible* idea. Its unique sales point is not attractive, and thanks to the gamepad, it has a large base cost that will be hard to drive down in future revisions.

3DS did not need 3D to sell. Who buys a 3DS because it has 3D? It could have just been a regular Nintendo handheld; the new DS; DS2. It would have sold the same, but it would have been cheaper to produce.

Here's what I think Nintendo needs to do next. Make a good handheld, either a single screen or a dual screen. It doesn't make a big difference. When the handheld has a decent audience, release their trump card — a base station which hooks up to the TV and lets players use their handheld to play games on the TV in a new way. They could have TV modes inside regular software for the handheld, or they could release games that were specifically for the TV module which can be played with either the handheld or Wiimotes. It wouldn't even need to be that high spec at this point. But the key to this strategy is the user experience and how everything ties together.

I really think they need to bow out of the console business as we know it currently. They failed hard with Wii U, and I think they need to reduce their hardware efforts in the future so that they can focus on making games.

Edit: or they could go third party like Sega, and I think they would make a shit ton of money, but whatever... they've said they're not interested in that route.

 

[tehrik-e-insaaf]

I'd say it depends also on who is the CEO. If it's someone strictly connected to Iwata, despite being a freshman, I could see him not embracing mobile as you say. Still, I don't believe, with a new CEO, Nintendo would completely abandon traditional market, like at all. Unless that CEO is someone like Square Enix's CEO and he completely changes the BoD (I'm sure the current one would never go on mobile in that way).
Still, I can see, even under Iwata, Nintendo on mobile with just advertising content, like Reggie hinted at last month.

Yeah but then it's pointless to replace Iwata if the guy succeeding him isn't going to really do anything different.

This is why I don't think people really are getting the whole picture here. If Iwata goes, so does the idea of complete software - replacing Iwata isn't going to lead to a new FZero or new FPS IP with dedicated online servers from Retro Studios or Nintendo letting people download all their games on 10 different devices.

My guess would be that Retro studios gets shut down altogether if Iwata goes - he is one of the few people in the company that see any value in even keeping Retro and dealing with the challenges of Western development turnover and non-permanence.

This coming year I expect lots of F2P announcements on the 3DS - which will be their way of increasing the value proposition of the hardware without dropping the price further. I'm also expecting Nintendo to announce a tablet-like device with NicoNico streaming, Miiverse, eBooks, and a variety of other features. They will probably start by offering their F2P games on this device too and see the uptake it has in a limited launch in Japan before attempting to introduce it to Western markets.

In terms of business I think Nintendo should branch out to Serious games, and pounce on the worldwide gamification hype, and should have branched out to exergaming partnering with e.g. Nike. They are/were in the ideal position for this out of any large gaming company.

They could definitely apply their design thinking into analog devices or go back to making high-end toys or something I suppose. I mean, it's going to be tough to keep generating the kind of revenue they are used to. The problem with these novelty products is that all these industries are also in terminal decline. They'd have to invent a bunch of low-cost devices and keep experimenting in the toy space to see if they could be successful with anything.

I think a lot of people who think this is a Nintendo problem don't really understand that this is an industry problem... Nintendo is just experiencing losses now and they have a cash reserve built up to protect against bad times - if Sony misses expectations for profitability - or even reports a loss in 2015 and 2016 - I don't really think they have any other option but to file for bankruptcy or break up the company piece by piece - I don't think the Japanese government could really do anything to be honest because there is no way they would take out $20B+ USD in loans to bail out Sony...

There is a very real possibility that Microsoft could lose the bulk of their Windows licensing revenue in <5 years - and Office sales plummet as well. Enterprise will keep them making money - but if the entire consumer/packaged software business goes sideways or collapses for them - shareholders are going to revolt and demand that they dump those businesses and focus 100% on Enterprise.

I think we should all agree that the day Nintendo dies is the day the music dies in terms of our own hobby.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Been waiting what must be a whole year for this shoe to drop. Its kinda funny it just slips out now a couple weeks before the reckoning, as if Iwata truly believed there was a chance at any of the projections, which is absolutely ludicrous.

Glorious post by tehrik-e-insaaf as well. Any little bandwagon shit sarcastically mouthing "nintendoooooooomed" can now eat the fact-pie and get all silent with fierce indigestion. Glad we don't have to deal with "maybe it'll be fine!" timewasting anymore.

I'm honestly not even sure where Nintendo goes from here, even with a total exec shuffle out and replace. Ditching their totally untenable home console platform seems necessary because its now dragging down their dedicated handheld business into a hole with it which is at least moderately okay, if far down from the DS boom years. But even then, handhelds are getting eaten alive by the smartphone and tablet market, so how quickly is that slope going to get real bad for them as well? Seems pretty quickly when you realise the 80 million PSP base disappeared overnight, a total LTD the 3DS will struggle to reach.

They've also finally reached a level of pickle that not even Pokemon, and one of the biggest most hyped entries in a long while, can drag them out of the hole. By comparison 2014 has nothing on that level, so the big shots are out. Mario is clearly no longer an adequate platform pusher either, especially in place of 0 third party support.

We're essentially looking at the fattest Nintendo right now there will ever be with all its overheads, platforms, buildings and devs and that they're going to be forced to almost at least half themselves entirely to move forward as a leaner, profit making entity. Can they survive such savage slashing to their identity, workforce, and more? I'm not sure. Living in a bubble for the past decade means the wake up call is all the more violent.