I seriously doubt it. Nintendo has to buy off the shelf parts and has much less clout and by that time also less maturity in their development processes. Sure they could be a bit cheaper, or a bit better, but what would be the point? They would release a me-too device which is marginally cheaper or better and has no software at a time when people are buying of have bought into large droves in PS4s ecosystem. It would be quite similar to PS2/Gamecube at best, but likely worse than the WiiU is doing now.
Nintendo lowers forecast from ¥55B profit to ¥25B loss [3DS 18M->13.5; WiiU 9M->2.8M]
- Thread starter mackaveli
- Start date
I seriously doubt it. Nintendo has to buy off the shelf parts and has much less clout and by that time also less maturity in their development processes. Sure they could be a bit cheaper, or a bit better, but what would be the point? They would release a me-too device which is marginally cheaper or better and has no software at a time when people are buying of have bought into large droves in PS4s ecosystem. It would be quite similar to PS2/Gamecube at best, but likely worse than the WiiU is doing now.
The flip side of this is, if the dedicated gaming handheld market shrinks to a point where it can no longer sustain the cost going into R&D for more of such devices and constant major exclusive releases on the platform, then what? It's a reality that's happening, and while there will always be an audience for that, the audience might not be large enough to sustain major investment from a big listed company.
So there's always that to consider. While one idea might have negative impact, another idea might have even more negative impact.
I don't think they should, I've been saying they should go third party in the home console area for almost a year. I just think that they WILL, and if they do they need to be ready.
fredrancour
Member
Galaxy had the chance to do it on the wii with an enormous install base and still capped out at way less than Mario kart wii/nsmb wii/ gta numbers. 3D mario has never actually sold that hugely even though many of us love it to death and critics reward it. The software they chose to pursue is as much a part of Nintendo's problem as the hardware or archaic infrastructure. Pikmin, wind waker, and 3d world would have disappointed on any platform.
This is a very interesting post and one I've been thinking about recently. It does seem to come off as Sony/MS are untouchable in terms of consoles right now But if what you are saying is happening to everyone then it's quite nuts.
I also agree with the new CEO pushing them thowards what is profitable aka Mobile gaming. It would be a more modern view of the gaming landscape just not one lots of gamers will be happy to jump in on.
LoveCake
Member
Would you buy this follow up console at launch ?
I bought a WiiU at launch like i have most other Nintendo gamers, but if Nintendo dropped the WiiU like you have suggested, i wouldn't buy one.
People who have a WiiU are not going to buy another just a couple of years after buying the previous console, furthermore it takes time & resources to design & build a games console & people in the semiconductor industry would already be working on the chip-sets & things would have leaked already.
This is a very doom and gloom post, and I fear its true as much as I hated it. When the majority of gaming turned from product into service, traditional gaming will be dead, or at least become minority that kept alive by number of enthusiast.
John Dunbar
correct about everything
difficult to believe anyone ever thought that original forecast was even close to being realistic.
What precedent or data do you have to support this argument? Did you even read the post I quoted? Nintendo would literally have to gut itself to make it to 3rd party. Even then there's still no guarantee that they would "reap massive profits" from it.
SOFTWARE IS DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD
As much as some want this to happen because they don't want to buy another console to play Zelda and Mario, there's zero guarantees that they'd remain profitable as a 3rd party. What's guaranteed is that the company guts itself into complete chaos, basically starting over from scratch. It'd make Sega's transition look like a cakewalk.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
I mean, I frequent GAF and can't even justify buying another game for the thing. I think I'm going to trade it in actually, just not worth the money when I have services like Steam that give me RIDICULOUS deals.
Kind of sad.
Village_Idiot
Banned
Everyone knows that the market has changed drastically since the last console generation.
I love Iwata and his business decisions. I would imagine if I were in his position I wish I had the balls to do the same and rough it out.
I felt that the iPhone was very similar to the Wii in its aims of bringing something to the masses.
the Wii appealed to people who didn't really need or want one but just the idea of having one kinda made you hip and down with the technology interfaces which at the same time the core gamer kinda scorned ( I never bought one. just borrowed)
The Wii U does not have any charm or appeal. it does not beat the competitors on technology or have the same level of marketing; even personal recommendations are hard to come by.
It does have uniqueness in the form of the gamepad (which I like, but don't love and only use it for VC right now as the games don't support it properly. I'm looking at U zombiU, Pikmin 3, W101)
Everyone loves vita/PS4 remote play .... which, right now has a possibly better but definitely more clear implementation of off screen play than the Wii U (how that happened, I don't know)
But I have had a very amazing time with it this year. and will whole heartedly recommend it after the games come out this year. Smash, Mario Kart etc and the single player exclusives and the surprises I am expecting.
The Wii U will limp along for a few years and as soon as they release nintendo selects on the Wii U eshop the console will be a must buy for everyone.... if they are still producing it.
tldr;
I'm a nintendo fanboy but think I understand why this happened
I love Iwata and his business decisions. I would imagine if I were in his position I wish I had the balls to do the same and rough it out.
I felt that the iPhone was very similar to the Wii in its aims of bringing something to the masses.
the Wii appealed to people who didn't really need or want one but just the idea of having one kinda made you hip and down with the technology interfaces which at the same time the core gamer kinda scorned ( I never bought one. just borrowed)
The Wii U does not have any charm or appeal. it does not beat the competitors on technology or have the same level of marketing; even personal recommendations are hard to come by.
It does have uniqueness in the form of the gamepad (which I like, but don't love and only use it for VC right now as the games don't support it properly. I'm looking at U zombiU, Pikmin 3, W101)
Everyone loves vita/PS4 remote play .... which, right now has a possibly better but definitely more clear implementation of off screen play than the Wii U (how that happened, I don't know)
But I have had a very amazing time with it this year. and will whole heartedly recommend it after the games come out this year. Smash, Mario Kart etc and the single player exclusives and the surprises I am expecting.
The Wii U will limp along for a few years and as soon as they release nintendo selects on the Wii U eshop the console will be a must buy for everyone.... if they are still producing it.
tldr;
I'm a nintendo fanboy but think I understand why this happened
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Nintendo's own ability to push hardware as a "must have" is now whats holding software back, not its quality. This wasnt a problem before when their hw business was unreasonably booming, but now there are hard limits on what they can invest into becoming what platform holders need to be in 2014 to compete.
If nothing else, they need to focus on one hardware product and one only to see if they can make that an existence for the long term. If not, then they really dont have much of a choice beyond delaying the inevitable.
Inspectah_Deck
Member
Kind of OT:
Are there any indicators for a january Nintendo Direct?
Are there any indicators for a january Nintendo Direct?
I'm pretty pessimistic about the future of games, but even I can't accept this frankly dystopian vision of the future. I'll address the bolded points.
1. There was plenty that Iwata could have done, quite obviously. In another world, there is a Nintendo that came up with a better idea than Wii U, gave it a better name, launched with better flagship software than Nintendoland and came in at a better price point. That's just to begin with. In that better world their home console is not cratering the way it is now. Maybe it's not a huge success, but the Wii U is a function of terrible decisions piled on top of each other as much as anything else.
2. Of course Nintendo could go third party. The transition to PS4 development would be massively easier for them than the transition to phone/tablet gaming. One is an entirely new paradigm of gaming that as you point out does not suit most of their franchises. The other is just learning a new architecture, licensing an engine and making higher quality assets. There are 160m PS3s + 360s out there. There will be plenty of next-gen consoles sold. They could easily go, or could have gone, third party. I believe they probably one day will.
3. I don't think that there's any guarantee whatsoever that the new CEO forces Nintendo into mobile gaming. Shareholders aren't stupid - they must see that
a) It doesn't suit Nintendo's catalogue
b) They don't have the skill / expertise in that area, and it would take two years minimum to acquire,
c) You can still profit making software for PS3/4 and the Xboxes
d) You can still profit making handhelds if you don't have a home console albatross weighing you down
e) The mobile market is disastrously over saturated and very few companies are making money. You're throwing the dice as a new entrant to that market. You're also destroying the dollar value of your software forever once you start selling it for 5 bucks or less.
I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm just saying that painting that as the inevitable consequence of a new CEO is ridiculous.
And this is the beginning of the end of traditional gaming.
This post basically sums up the general public's opinion on games. Why buy a game for full price when I can wait for the firesale on Steam in a couple of months? Why buy a handheld when I can play Candy Crush on my phone?
Budgets have exploded but game prices have fallen like stones. This isn't how economics works. I'm not judging this post but its easy to see that something has to change in the traditional gaming sense or all consoles and AAA games are on very short lifespans.
I'm not even talking just Nintendo. I'm talking EVERYWHERE. All software is down across all platforms. Microsoft's gaming division still isn't profitable and Sony's all but dead given their debt. The launches were awesome for PS4/Xbone but where's the SOFTWARE ATTACHMENT? Look at the NPD software sales for two incredible, record breaking launches. Still down 5%. My brother didn't even buy any games with his PS4, he bought PS+ and is getting his games through that. You just can't have a piece of hardware and not buy games for it. That dooms it harder than anything else. Wii U has proven that more than anything else we can learn from its struggles.
I still think you're a little exaggerating in saying the next one after Iwata would certainly ditch completely the past and go mobile. If he's someone like SE's Ceo, the risk is concrete, but if he's sometone who knows changes are needed, but that knows Nintendo's value as well, I don't think things would go that extreme. And we have also to consider the BoD. Hopefully, in the extreme case Iwata goes home, the next one is not a mobile believer
I'm also one of those who believes mobile could see a contraction in next years, given how things are going right now (everything is ftp, increasing difficulties in discoverability, audience not eating non-ftp/more premium content enough, limited games possibility + controllers being clunky and costing too much), but that's another matter.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Just because Nintendo faces a steep decline does not mean the rest of the industry does as well.
I mean just look at PS4 and XB1.
Why are people suggesting they kill the Wii U before suggesting they drop GamePad support (EDIT: requirement, I mean)?
Surely selling a Wii U with Wii Remote Plus for $149 (and international equivalent), and continue selling GamePads separately, would be quite a feasible step to take in between?
Can someone explain why people think it wouldn't be a good idea to rebrand the Wii U without the Pad?
Surely selling a Wii U with Wii Remote Plus for $149 (and international equivalent), and continue selling GamePads separately, would be quite a feasible step to take in between?
Can someone explain why people think it wouldn't be a good idea to rebrand the Wii U without the Pad?
I think this is a very real possibility.
Yep, look at that 5% increased hardware sales in december.
I don't think going third party is as easy and good as you think it is.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Samsung turned "a little cheaper" into a hundred billion dollar company. That business model is a proven one and has worked for companies time and again. Just ask Sony who were on the losing side to Samsung's ascent.
Don't forget that you would already have received the games Nintendo have promised such as Zelda, Kart and Smash. So it's not like they would be leaving you high and dry.
What's important is to motivate Nintendo's buying base as well as get people who like Nintendo games but don't want to be forced to choose between playing FIFA and Nintendo games to also buy in. On Nintendo's consoles for the last two generations people have been unable to play third party games or the full fat versions at least. With the Wii it didn't matter because it was cheap and seen as a must have experience for at least four years. For the Wii U, this matters because it forces the choice between PlayStation 3/4 and Wii U.
I like playing Nintendo games, I think they make some of the best games in the industry, but I don't have enough time to have both a PS4 and Wii U. I personally rate Nintendo's first party output as better than Sony's but with the spectre of missing out on MGS5 or FFXV by not having a PS4 it makes the choice too easy for me, I'll forgo Nintendo games. For me the issue is time, but for others it will be money or any number of reasons. However, the choice is clear - Nintendo games on Wii U or third party games on PS4. If Nintendo's next console was an easy port machine from PS4 (using almost identical architecture) and Nintendo tipped the balance in their favour by getting third party games, I would probably get that console, and I'm sure it's not just me.
The current console generation is going to last until about 2019, releasing at the end of 2015 would give Nintendo a good five years before they had to rethink their formula. Building a console using Samsung's "a little bit cheaper but otherwise identical" model would work in the short term, and right now Nintendo needs to think about the short term.
Isn't the gamepad gimmick the only thing that can make the Wii U appeal to a large audience? The COD/Madden/Fifa casual crowd is either on next-gen or 360/PS3, and have no reason to buy a Wii U. The audience that bought the Wii wouldn't understand what's new with the Wii U, and the hardcore Nintendo fans probably have a Wii U already.
There would be no place for a Wii U minus gamepad. There's no place for Wii U with a gamepad either, though.
Okay, so the big question is obviously how they move on from here. I think that we can all agree that the status quo is unsustainable now that reality has hit, so clearly, major changes needs to happen.
The first mistake Nintendo did was to not distance itself from the Wii. Wii U is a sloppy and confusing iteration that could of had a much better prospect if it was called and presented as something unique. It would of stand alone as the next, new console, and people would of resonated with it more efficiently. Nintendo tried to cash in on the Wii wave, since Wii clearly was a big success for them. The problem was that they clearly misjudged that mainstream had drifted to social and mobile, where there is much more accessibility, both in quantity and economically for the consumer. Had they made their next console differentiate itself from its successor, people wouldn't confuse it with the Wii. That's the problem, if people wanted a Wii, they'd buy a Wii. The Wii U is not the same as the Wii, but it has many similarities with it + the fact that it is directly associated with the Wii (Since it's named Wii U). The Wii fad has faded a long time ago, so they pretty much shot themselves in the foot there.
They have a variety of options on the table available to them, and I think that it's critical to examine them, as their old, current model needs to be revitalized. Why isn't this working? How do we fix our relationship with 3rd parties? How do we get the consumers back? What do the consumers want? How are our competitors faring, and what can we learn from them?
These are all important questions, and they really need to think outside the box on this one. There's no lenient quick fix here, as the console is a major bomb, so there's going to need some honest, serious self-reflection from Nintendo's part. Staying quiescent on this issue is detrimental, not only for Nintendo, but for the traditional gaming industry at large.
The first mistake Nintendo did was to not distance itself from the Wii. Wii U is a sloppy and confusing iteration that could of had a much better prospect if it was called and presented as something unique. It would of stand alone as the next, new console, and people would of resonated with it more efficiently. Nintendo tried to cash in on the Wii wave, since Wii clearly was a big success for them. The problem was that they clearly misjudged that mainstream had drifted to social and mobile, where there is much more accessibility, both in quantity and economically for the consumer. Had they made their next console differentiate itself from its successor, people wouldn't confuse it with the Wii. That's the problem, if people wanted a Wii, they'd buy a Wii. The Wii U is not the same as the Wii, but it has many similarities with it + the fact that it is directly associated with the Wii (Since it's named Wii U). The Wii fad has faded a long time ago, so they pretty much shot themselves in the foot there.
They have a variety of options on the table available to them, and I think that it's critical to examine them, as their old, current model needs to be revitalized. Why isn't this working? How do we fix our relationship with 3rd parties? How do we get the consumers back? What do the consumers want? How are our competitors faring, and what can we learn from them?
These are all important questions, and they really need to think outside the box on this one. There's no lenient quick fix here, as the console is a major bomb, so there's going to need some honest, serious self-reflection from Nintendo's part. Staying quiescent on this issue is detrimental, not only for Nintendo, but for the traditional gaming industry at large.
I am looking and I'm seeing bugger and all.
I thought people hated gimmicks anyway?
- family entertainment
- HD Nintendo system
- Mario Kart, 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Smash Bros.
- cheap, impulse buy ($150 is an achievable price point)
You are forgetting Vita which is probably doing worse worldwide than Wii U (except Japan)
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
You cant take 2 months of the new platform as any kind of good data on the whole industry. What you can take is that an 8 year gen was too long and the market suffered as a result. If you look at software sales for PS4 and Xbone, theyre damn good and the market was thirsty and ready for them.
What you can however also take for why the entire market is contracting is because the previously bigtime winner of last generation of 150 mil DS and 100 mil Wii is fading into the shadows. The entire dedicated handheld software sales market is disappearing to the "other side" of the app stores. Sony's had to sacrifice that end of things with the PSP base disappearing, but the rampant piracy had prepared them for that anyway, its just the hw sales they'll miss but hope to make up on PS4. Other than that, its business as usual for the Xbox and Playstation market. No more extended audience skewing things out of proportion, back to the standard market. Maybe whoever achieves extended market netting next will bother to find a way to keep them in the console gaming market permanently.
Yes, this has been happening for ages and it's a massive issue. People just aren't willing to pay for games any more. I don't know why. People obviously don't understand what it takes in terms of money, talent and time to build a great game. But as time goes on, there is a bigger and bigger catalogue of excellent old games that are cheap, and new games don't seem to be innovative enough to compete with them.
Once the paying public realise that paying for items in F2P games is a mug's choice then it could pretty much be all over. The perceived value of software could hardly get any lower. To think that people are reduced to giving away AAA games and then hoping players will buy some useless digital tat when they're in the game, like it was Disneyland but without an entrance fee... it boggles my mind.
Anyone in their early 30s with friends who have kids or who commutes on a train as I do can tell you that this is more a probability than possibility. There's no doubt in my mind that that's what's happening.
Great rebuttal!
tanasten
glad to heard people isn't stupid anymore
Another big mistake that Nintendo did was to abandon the Wii and the DS so soon. I think that millions of people ended deceived with the lack of games on these platforms. I got friends who bought the Wii last year... and they can't find games and half of the installed programs doesn't work anymore.
¿How much damage can do this type of treatment of your 100M userbase? And let's not talk about the gamers, because the Wii and the DS did killed millions of gamers from Nintendo for the years to come...
¿How much damage can do this type of treatment of your 100M userbase? And let's not talk about the gamers, because the Wii and the DS did killed millions of gamers from Nintendo for the years to come...
RukusProvider
Banned
The core product has no desirability by the mass market.
Cost is just one factor, not the only factor.
In the US, the Wii u is not on anyone's radar and price has nothing to do with it.
It's a dead product, like the vita.
Magicpaint
Member
This is really the dark ages for Nintendo. Of course their original WiiU forecast was ridiculous but there's a small chance they might even miss these revised forecasts...that's just scary.
KennyLinder
Member
I think ultimately, people still want to play Nintendo games, but they don't want to have to buy another console just to do that. Seems reasonable to me, you wouldn't buy a Disney machine just to play Disney movies, the thing would be a disaster.
Of course it's not on anyone's radar. Why would anyone want to buy a tablet for their old Wii from 2008?
I think cutting the price to $149 would get people to have a second look, but obviously some bare minimum of advertising would be required. Like, a couple of ads on TV and buses that don't have a GamePad in sight. The idea would be to emphasise the price, and rekindle people's interest in a good, solid Nintendo console for fun family time and happy memories.
They really need something else to get people into buying into WiiU, account systems & vastly improved Virtual console are a given but something like say Occulus VR support maybe? I remember that Lucky Palmer guy saying that they want to get it running with mobiles so I'm sure the WiiU could support it. The steam box shout was a good idea, all the indie stuff from steam should be on there no question. They NEED to do something different, what that is I'm not sure. Whats the next lightning in a bottle scenario? Looks like this Occulus VR to me.
SolarPowered
Member
It's almost morning here in the US. I fear the madness has only truly just begun on GAF.
If you skim the thread you'll see that Nintendo is more or less paying retailers just so they don't drop the system. Dropping the price to $149 would kill Nintendo faster than anything anyone else here has recommended regardless of what cost cutting measures they implement. It's not feasible.
It's going to be okay.
True, but you don't go to Six Flags to ride Pirates of the Caribbean.
I'd love to play The Last of Us on my PC, but I know better. This argument isn't about what's a smart business decision. It's about what certain posters want.
I'm fine but to disregard the numbers across the board while relating to current trends is just being delusional. Despite the great launches hardware is still only up 5%. Meanwhile software sales are still down. Where's the attach rate for the new consoles? Not one new console exclusive cracked the top 10. Not one. That's not good at all.
Samsung is succeeding in part due to the largest CE marketing spending ever. And the fact that mobile phones have shorter than yearly iterations. Being considerably cheaper did nothing for gamecube.
geordiemp
Member
And yet here in the UK all Ps4 games are £ 52 - £ 60. Sixty pounds !
I bought 3 games for Ps4 - I would like to buy more, but the new pricing is nuts....
Next gen consoles are selling like hot cakes, the reason the attach rates are not spectacular is they bumped up games prices by almost 50 %.
I can only speak from my personal view, but if those game prices for next gen were similar to 360 prices in stores, they would sell allot more.
Boy Wander
Member
I firmly believe that what is happening now is a consequence, not of this gen, but the N64 gen and the time elapsed since then.
Back in the day, a lot of people bought Nintendo because that's what they'd grown up with.
When they lost market share to Sony, the net effect that is now coming to fruition is that most people, people who now have kids of their own to buy consoles for, grew up, not as Nintendo fans, but as Playstation fans. When Nintendo lost so much share to Sony, they effectively also lost future generations.
Ergo, The Wii was an anomaly, and one that they're not likely to be able to repeat any time soon. The reality is that Nintendo's console market share has been in decline since 1995.
The one area that I feel Nintendo really needs to buck it's ideas up in is marketing. Their marketing is piss-poor half-arsed and has no coherency. Bottom line is, thing's sell these days, especially to teenagers and twenty-somethings because they are 'cool'. I bet marketing are not involved at all in the design / features of a new console at Nintendo. They should be. They need someone powerful in marketing to tell Iwata & Co that their ideas are more 'quaint' than 'cool'.
I see some similarities between Nokia and Nintendo. Both used to be top of their game, both have lost market share because they failed to keep up with the times and what was 'cool'.
Not sure where I'm going with this really, so I'll stop now
Back in the day, a lot of people bought Nintendo because that's what they'd grown up with.
When they lost market share to Sony, the net effect that is now coming to fruition is that most people, people who now have kids of their own to buy consoles for, grew up, not as Nintendo fans, but as Playstation fans. When Nintendo lost so much share to Sony, they effectively also lost future generations.
Ergo, The Wii was an anomaly, and one that they're not likely to be able to repeat any time soon. The reality is that Nintendo's console market share has been in decline since 1995.
The one area that I feel Nintendo really needs to buck it's ideas up in is marketing. Their marketing is piss-poor half-arsed and has no coherency. Bottom line is, thing's sell these days, especially to teenagers and twenty-somethings because they are 'cool'. I bet marketing are not involved at all in the design / features of a new console at Nintendo. They should be. They need someone powerful in marketing to tell Iwata & Co that their ideas are more 'quaint' than 'cool'.
I see some similarities between Nokia and Nintendo. Both used to be top of their game, both have lost market share because they failed to keep up with the times and what was 'cool'.
Not sure where I'm going with this really, so I'll stop now
KennyLinder
Member
Is Six Flags a theme park? UK-GAF here.
My point was that I think most people are happy with one system, and they don't want to fork out £200+ for a console just to play Nintendo games (under the TV).
RukusProvider
Banned
Then you're just left with a weak console that plays a couple of Nintendo games. It's just not the way forward. They don't be able to sell enough to be relevant ESP as xb1 and ps4 start growing their games libraries and with the xb1, coming down in price.
If Nintendo wants a serious effort again, read zoomgftw's approach and I agree with it completely.
I'd just like an Apple tv-like device dedicated to playing NES/SNES/N64 games. It should include some kind of subscription service (like Netflix), with access to their entire games library. I'm probably not the first to suggest this.
It wouldn't solve their current problem, but I don't know how any price cuts or a possible new console could. Such a device would be pretty cheap to manufacture and at least make them SOME money.
It wouldn't solve their current problem, but I don't know how any price cuts or a possible new console could. Such a device would be pretty cheap to manufacture and at least make them SOME money.
Can you elaborate on this? I have read the thread, but I would be interested to read more about this retailer predicament, and why it's not feasible to rebrand the Wii U. So you're saying retailers would simply absolutely not stock a cheap GamePad-less Wii U? Or are you saying it wouldn't be profitable enough thus kill Nintendo?
Okay, fair enough. Thanks.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
And what approach would that be when you don't have the third party games they want?