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[spekkeh]

2. If they play the game right they will be able to get PS4 power for a build cost of $200 or lower in 2015. They will be able to significantly undercut Sony and MS.

I seriously doubt it. Nintendo has to buy off the shelf parts and has much less clout and by that time also less maturity in their development processes. Sure they could be a bit cheaper, or a bit better, but what would be the point? They would release a me-too device which is marginally cheaper or better and has no software at a time when people are buying of have bought into large droves in PS4s ecosystem. It would be quite similar to PS2/Gamecube at best, but likely worse than the WiiU is doing now.

 

[duckroll]

If you can buy on a device you already own (as a new gamer) SMB, SMB2, SMB3, SMW, SML, SML2, how much desire will you have to buy another device to play new Mario platformers soon? If you can buy on a device you already own Zelda 1, 2, 3, 4, how much desire will you have to buy another device to play new Zelda games soon? The list goes on. Nintendo would get some money out of this, but they would devalue their brands severely and would offer comeptition for their own main market - handhelds.

The flip side of this is, if the dedicated gaming handheld market shrinks to a point where it can no longer sustain the cost going into R&D for more of such devices and constant major exclusive releases on the platform, then what? It's a reality that's happening, and while there will always be an audience for that, the audience might not be large enough to sustain major investment from a big listed company.

So there's always that to consider. While one idea might have negative impact, another idea might have even more negative impact.

 

[Griss]

Why launch a new console that is going to face the same exact problems as the current one?

It's not like third parties are going to suddenly embrace a new Nintendo console, and consumers are suddenly going to desire a Nintendo console that once again, lacks all the hottest new games that Microsoft and Sony always get.

I don't think they should, I've been saying they should go third party in the home console area for almost a year. I just think that they WILL, and if they do they need to be ready.

 

[fredrancour]

I disagree, If Nintendo brought out say the last WiiU Mario to a wider audience as a third party to sony / MS - it would sell close to GTA V numbers......

Galaxy had the chance to do it on the wii with an enormous install base and still capped out at way less than Mario kart wii/nsmb wii/ gta numbers. 3D mario has never actually sold that hugely even though many of us love it to death and critics reward it. The software they chose to pursue is as much a part of Nintendo's problem as the hardware or archaic infrastructure. Pikmin, wind waker, and 3d world would have disappointed on any platform.

 

[Delio]

Long post.

This is a very interesting post and one I've been thinking about recently. It does seem to come off as Sony/MS are untouchable in terms of consoles right now But if what you are saying is happening to everyone then it's quite nuts.

I also agree with the new CEO pushing them thowards what is profitable aka Mobile gaming. It would be a more modern view of the gaming landscape just not one lots of gamers will be happy to jump in on.

 

[LoveCake]

So, shit results eh. Quelle surprise...

It's time for Iwata to stand down. He has damaged Nintendo time and again to protect his own position within the company, and he is doing so again.

Three points - 3DS has peaked, the Wii U needs to be taken out the back and shot and they need a third pillar.

1. Dedicated handheld gaming is in decline, massively so. There will always be a market since there are always going to be kids who don't have smartphones or access to a tablet without supervision. However, they cannot rely on that market to keep the lights on.

2. I haven't been one to call for Nintendo to kill the Wii U, but as of this point I think they need to just release the bare minimum of games and then summarily kill it. Then look at releasing hardware comparable to the PS4 but at a lower price once the technology has matured. I would say they get Kart, Zelda and Smash out, then kill it. Move Bayonetta and X to the new console as launch titles. If they play the game right they will be able to get PS4 power for a build cost of $200 or lower in 2015. They will be able to significantly undercut Sony and MS.

3. Resurrect the Gameboy brand for the market mentioned in the first point and make the third pillar a Nintendo smartphone publishing house. They can do it the way of Amazon/Sony and have their own store for Android and partner with phone makers to have the store pre-installed. It would be easier than making their own OS for which they have neither the expertise nor the resources.

On a more general note, Nintendo need to seriously rethink their attitude to the internet and implement an online account system for purchases. The current system is a complete joke. Tying purchases to hardware is stupid in an era when the competition are encouraging cross buy and using the cloud to sync gameplay progression across devices.

Make no mistake, this is horrible for Nintendo, but it comes after years of not adapting to new market conditions. They have continually failed to do so and now the window of opportunity is closing quickly. I fear for their future.

Would you buy this follow up console at launch ?

I bought a WiiU at launch like i have most other Nintendo gamers, but if Nintendo dropped the WiiU like you have suggested, i wouldn't buy one.

People who have a WiiU are not going to buy another just a couple of years after buying the previous console, furthermore it takes time & resources to design & build a games console & people in the semiconductor industry would already be working on the chip-sets & things would have leaked already.

 

[Shengar]

Dark times are coming and I greatly fear for the future of traditional gaming.

This is a very doom and gloom post, and I fear its true as much as I hated it. When the majority of gaming turned from product into service, traditional gaming will be dead, or at least become minority that kept alive by number of enthusiast.

 

[John Dunbar]

difficult to believe anyone ever thought that original forecast was even close to being realistic.

 

[Chindogg]

I disagree, If Nintendo brought out say the last WiiU Mario to a wider audience as a third party to sony / MS - it would sell close to GTA V numbers......

They can chose to massively increase sales ANYTIME they want by going third party for home console....and bringing their loved franchises to a wider 170 million audience (SONY + MS)

I am not saying they should or will, but.....it would make allot of money

What precedent or data do you have to support this argument? Did you even read the post I quoted? Nintendo would literally have to gut itself to make it to 3rd party. Even then there's still no guarantee that they would "reap massive profits" from it.

SOFTWARE IS DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD

As much as some want this to happen because they don't want to buy another console to play Zelda and Mario, there's zero guarantees that they'd remain profitable as a 3rd party. What's guaranteed is that the company guts itself into complete chaos, basically starting over from scratch. It'd make Sega's transition look like a cakewalk.

 

[Snaku]

My initial reaction to their original projections...

Iwata was high. Not surprised at all by these more conservative numbers.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

If anything, the appalling tie-rate and software sales prove that parents are buying it for their kids, then baulking at the software prices and just handing their kid their phone when they want a different game to play.
Its nothing short of disastrous.

I mean, I frequent GAF and can't even justify buying another game for the thing. I think I'm going to trade it in actually, just not worth the money when I have services like Steam that give me RIDICULOUS deals.

Kind of sad.

 

[Village_Idiot]

Everyone knows that the market has changed drastically since the last console generation.

I love Iwata and his business decisions. I would imagine if I were in his position I wish I had the balls to do the same and rough it out.

I felt that the iPhone was very similar to the Wii in its aims of bringing something to the masses.

the Wii appealed to people who didn't really need or want one but just the idea of having one kinda made you hip and down with the technology interfaces which at the same time the core gamer kinda scorned ( I never bought one. just borrowed)


The Wii U does not have any charm or appeal. it does not beat the competitors on technology or have the same level of marketing; even personal recommendations are hard to come by.

It does have uniqueness in the form of the gamepad (which I like, but don't love and only use it for VC right now as the games don't support it properly. I'm looking at U zombiU, Pikmin 3, W101)

Everyone loves vita/PS4 remote play .... which, right now has a possibly better but definitely more clear implementation of off screen play than the Wii U (how that happened, I don't know)

But I have had a very amazing time with it this year. and will whole heartedly recommend it after the games come out this year. Smash, Mario Kart etc and the single player exclusives and the surprises I am expecting.

The Wii U will limp along for a few years and as soon as they release nintendo selects on the Wii U eshop the console will be a must buy for everyone.... if they are still producing it.

tldr;
I'm a nintendo fanboy but think I understand why this happened

 

[Pie and Beans]

SOFTWARE IS DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD

Nintendo's own ability to push hardware as a "must have" is now whats holding software back, not its quality. This wasnt a problem before when their hw business was unreasonably booming, but now there are hard limits on what they can invest into becoming what platform holders need to be in 2014 to compete.

If nothing else, they need to focus on one hardware product and one only to see if they can make that an existence for the long term. If not, then they really dont have much of a choice beyond delaying the inevitable.

 

[olimpia84]

This is just horrible. I don't want to see the death of traditional gaming.

 

[Inspectah_Deck]

Kind of OT:
Are there any indicators for a january Nintendo Direct?

 

[Griss]

I think some of you guys are missing the point about all this - there really isn't much Iwata could have done - really - he had the option of turning the company into a F2P/mobile company four years ago and embracing that business model like many Japanese publishers did - or to take a risk and try to stay in the packaged software business and spending tremendous resources scaling Nintendo's capabilities to meet the bar of high-end software development without overextending themselves.

At that time people were questioning whether Sony was going to make a new console as the company was nearly bankrupt (and still is almost bankrupt - it's basically a zombie firm with a ridiculous amount of debt), and Microsoft had pretty much abandoned Japan (the source of 30% of Nintendo's gross profits). It isn't as if Nintendo could even have gone third-party - the only real options were to embrace the iPad and iPhone which were nascent platforms in Japan and had a style of games that Nintendo had never made.

If somehow Iwata were removed - the company would most likely move towards mobile and most likely free to play models since Iwata and his executive team are the last holdouts in the entire Japanese video game industry keeping traditional complete games a priority. I mean I guess some of you would want that because you want more free to play games, but I'm guessing a lot of you wouldn't be too happy about that. A new CEO would likely kill off Monolith Soft since they have been a perpetual cost center for Nintendo over the years, and probably cut off the dozen or so companies that Nintendo works with and keeps feeding like Grezzo, etc. I'd imagine they would kill Bayonetta 2 (or send it to die with zero marketing to cut their losses) and probably kill niche series like Pikmin from ever being produced ever again. Platinum in its current form would probably disappear since Nintendo has been effectively paying their bills over the past two years. MGR:R barely made them any money - they were hired as contractors - and a sequel to that game isn't going to be enough to keep everyone at Platinum employed. Nintendo's overall hiring plans would probably be frozen, and staff would be cut - probably at the high-end developers like EAD Tokyo which over hired to stock pile human resources for HD development over the past two years. Under a hypothetical new CEO, I wouldn't expect much in the way of new AAA console games from Nintendo if Iwata were fired since he is one of the few people who still believes in making them.

Shareholders aren't going to replace Iwata with someone that is going to make hardcore AAA IPs as a first party or as a third party for PS/Xbox platforms, or have Nintendo build a competitor to those platforms. The failure of the Wii U and the failure of their packaged software business in general (consider that out of 40+ million 3DS consoles - Zelda sold peanuts during the Holiday season) is going to lead investors to focus on someone that is going to embrace contemporary trends in gaming. That means lots of F2P an P2W and other things like low development costs on mobile to maximize gross profits. This has implications for the entire industry.

A world where Nintendo gives up on premium software is a scary one because it is going to drive expectations of all customers and spill across the entire industry. EA might be able to ride out the next few years with cheap updates to Madden and FIFA licenses and force yearly upgrades - Activision might have World of Warcraft money - which while declining rapidly - still keeps the lights on. But the former is effectively a peasant of Microsoft (and praying to be bought out by Microsoft or Disney), and the latter is deep in debt and is banking on a single game (Destiny) to deliver any profitability next fiscal year while depending on its Chinese investors to provide cash if they need it. Who knows maybe Destiny does great - but the millions it will sell to a core userbase aren't going to be enough to help Sony/MS drive their user bases up to 70-80 million needed to really achieve profitability at-scale.

Beyond that, Ubi's Just Dance money isn't going to sustain itself and Assassin's Creed is a franchise-in-decline. If Watchdogs fails to sell ridiculous numbers, I would expect Ubi to fully embrace F2P and focus heavily on mobile going forward. I can see them running to Apple and offering to make Rayman an iPad exclusive in return for cash payments. Take Two is already contracting its portfolio, and now it's more or less a two-products a year company. Bioshock4 and GTA6 might just be persistent online worlds with monthly subscriptions or a F2P model. I have a feeling NBA2K is going to go the F2P route in a few years as well - because that's probably where EA is going to take NBA Live to try and compete - and unlike the NFL - the NBA is probably not going to cut an exclusive with Take Two to preserve pricing power and risk lawsuits.

Even people like Peter Moore who have mastered the art of selling out their current employer for their next job and want nothing more than to see Nintendo suffer, are most likely trembling at hearing about Nintendo's current-year numbers.

I'm pretty pessimistic about the future of games, but even I can't accept this frankly dystopian vision of the future. I'll address the bolded points.

1. There was plenty that Iwata could have done, quite obviously. In another world, there is a Nintendo that came up with a better idea than Wii U, gave it a better name, launched with better flagship software than Nintendoland and came in at a better price point. That's just to begin with. In that better world their home console is not cratering the way it is now. Maybe it's not a huge success, but the Wii U is a function of terrible decisions piled on top of each other as much as anything else.

2. Of course Nintendo could go third party. The transition to PS4 development would be massively easier for them than the transition to phone/tablet gaming. One is an entirely new paradigm of gaming that as you point out does not suit most of their franchises. The other is just learning a new architecture, licensing an engine and making higher quality assets. There are 160m PS3s + 360s out there. There will be plenty of next-gen consoles sold. They could easily go, or could have gone, third party. I believe they probably one day will.

3. I don't think that there's any guarantee whatsoever that the new CEO forces Nintendo into mobile gaming. Shareholders aren't stupid - they must see that
a) It doesn't suit Nintendo's catalogue
b) They don't have the skill / expertise in that area, and it would take two years minimum to acquire,
c) You can still profit making software for PS3/4 and the Xboxes
d) You can still profit making handhelds if you don't have a home console albatross weighing you down
e) The mobile market is disastrously over saturated and very few companies are making money. You're throwing the dice as a new entrant to that market. You're also destroying the dollar value of your software forever once you start selling it for 5 bucks or less.

I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm just saying that painting that as the inevitable consequence of a new CEO is ridiculous.

 

[Chindogg]

I mean, I frequent GAF and can't even justify buying another game for the thing. I think I'm going to trade it in actually, just not worth the money when I have services like Steam that give me RIDICULOUS deals.

Kind of sad.

And this is the beginning of the end of traditional gaming.

This post basically sums up the general public's opinion on games. Why buy a game for full price when I can wait for the firesale on Steam in a couple of months? Why buy a handheld when I can play Candy Crush on my phone?

Budgets have exploded but game prices have fallen like stones. This isn't how economics works. I'm not judging this post but its easy to see that something has to change in the traditional gaming sense or all consoles and AAA games are on very short lifespans.

Nintendo's own ability to push hardware as a "must have" is now whats holding software back, not its quality. This wasnt a problem before when their hw business was unreasonably booming, but now there are hard limits on what they can invest into becoming what platform holders need to be in 2014 to compete.

If nothing else, they need to focus on one hardware product and one only to see if they can make that an existence for the long term. If not, then they really dont have much of a choice beyond delaying the inevitable.

I'm not even talking just Nintendo. I'm talking EVERYWHERE. All software is down across all platforms. Microsoft's gaming division still isn't profitable and Sony's all but dead given their debt. The launches were awesome for PS4/Xbone but where's the SOFTWARE ATTACHMENT? Look at the NPD software sales for two incredible, record breaking launches. Still down 5%. My brother didn't even buy any games with his PS4, he bought PS+ and is getting his games through that. You just can't have a piece of hardware and not buy games for it. That dooms it harder than anything else. Wii U has proven that more than anything else we can learn from its struggles.

 

[Mpl90]

Yeah but then it's pointless to replace Iwata if the guy succeeding him isn't going to really do anything different.

This is why I don't think people really are getting the whole picture here. If Iwata goes, so does the idea of complete software - replacing Iwata isn't going to lead to a new FZero or new FPS IP with dedicated online servers from Retro Studios or Nintendo letting people download all their games on 10 different devices.

My guess would be that Retro studios gets shut down altogether if Iwata goes - he is one of the few people in the company that see any value in even keeping Retro and dealing with the challenges of Western development turnover and non-permanence.

This coming year I expect lots of F2P announcements on the 3DS - which will be their way of increasing the value proposition of the hardware without dropping the price further. I'm also expecting Nintendo to announce a tablet-like device with NicoNico streaming, Miiverse, eBooks, and a variety of other features. They will probably start by offering their F2P games on this device too and see the uptake it has in a limited launch in Japan before attempting to introduce it to Western markets.

I still think you're a little exaggerating in saying the next one after Iwata would certainly ditch completely the past and go mobile. If he's someone like SE's Ceo, the risk is concrete, but if he's sometone who knows changes are needed, but that knows Nintendo's value as well, I don't think things would go that extreme. And we have also to consider the BoD. Hopefully, in the extreme case Iwata goes home, the next one is not a mobile believer

Spoiler

I'm also one of those who believes mobile could see a contraction in next years, given how things are going right now (everything is ftp, increasing difficulties in discoverability, audience not eating non-ftp/more premium content enough, limited games possibility + controllers being clunky and costing too much), but that's another matter.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

This is just horrible. I don't want to see the death of traditional gaming.

Just because Nintendo faces a steep decline does not mean the rest of the industry does as well.

I mean just look at PS4 and XB1.

 

[BowieZ]

Why are people suggesting they kill the Wii U before suggesting they drop GamePad support (EDIT: requirement, I mean)?

Surely selling a Wii U with Wii Remote Plus for $149 (and international equivalent), and continue selling GamePads separately, would be quite a feasible step to take in between?

Can someone explain why people think it wouldn't be a good idea to rebrand the Wii U without the Pad?

 

[SmokyDave]

If anything, the appalling tie-rate and software sales prove that parents are buying it for their kids, then baulking at the software prices and just handing their kid their phone when they want a different game to play.
Its nothing short of disastrous.

I think this is a very real possibility.

 

[Coolwhip]

Just because Nintendo faces a steep decline does not mean the rest of the industry does as well.

I mean just look at PS4 and XB1.

Yep, look at that 5% increased hardware sales in december.

 

[Jonnyram]

Claims that traditional gaming is dead are ridiculous. Sorry.

 

[Sandfox]

I'm pretty pessimistic about the future of games, but even I can't accept this frankly dystopian vision of the future. I'll address the bolded points.

1. There was plenty that Iwata could have done, quite obviously. In another world, there is a Nintendo that came up with a better idea than Wii U, gave it a better name, launched with better flagship software than Nintendoland and came in at a better price point. That's just to begin with. In that better world their home console is not cratering the way it is now. Maybe it's not a huge success, but the Wii U is a function of terrible decisions piled on top of each other as much as anything else.

2. Of course Nintendo could go third party. The transition to PS4 development would be massively easier for them than the transition to phone/tablet gaming. One is an entirely new paradigm of gaming that as you point out does not suit most of their franchises. The other is just learning a new architecture, licensing an engine and making higher quality assets. There are 160m PS3s + 360s out there. There will be plenty of next-gen consoles sold. They could easily go, or could have gone, third party. I believe they probably one day will.

3. I don't think that there's any guarantee whatsoever that the new CEO forces Nintendo into mobile gaming. Shareholders aren't stupid - they must see that
a) It doesn't suit Nintendo's catalogue
b) They don't have the skill / expertise in that area, and it would take two years minimum to acquire,
c) You can still profit making software for PS3/4 and the Xboxes
d) You can still profit making handhelds if you don't have a home console albatross weighing you down
e) The mobile market is disastrously over saturated and very few companies are making money. You're throwing the dice as a new entrant to that market. You're also destroying the dollar value of your software forever once you start selling it for 5 bucks or less.

I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm just saying that painting that as the inevitable consequence of a new CEO is ridiculous.

I don't think going third party is as easy and good as you think it is.

 

[Ponn]

I see we are still in the "If Nintendo cant succeed then no one is allowed to blargh scorched earth!" stage.

Siop with the melodrama.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I seriously doubt it. Nintendo has to buy off the shelf parts and has much less clout and by that time also less maturity in their development processes. Sure they could be a bit cheaper, or a bit better, but what would be the point? They would release a me-too device which is marginally cheaper or better and has no software at a time when people are buying of have bought into large droves in PS4s ecosystem. It would be quite similar to PS2/Gamecube at best, but likely worse than the WiiU is doing now.

Samsung turned "a little cheaper" into a hundred billion dollar company. That business model is a proven one and has worked for companies time and again. Just ask Sony who were on the losing side to Samsung's ascent.

Would you buy this follow up console at launch ?

I bought a WiiU at launch like i have most other Nintendo gamers, but if Nintendo dropped the WiiU like you have suggested, i wouldn't buy one.

People who have a WiiU are not going to buy another just a couple of years after buying the previous console, furthermore it takes time & resources to design & build a games console & people in the semiconductor industry would already be working on the chip-sets & things would have leaked already.

Don't forget that you would already have received the games Nintendo have promised such as Zelda, Kart and Smash. So it's not like they would be leaving you high and dry.

What's important is to motivate Nintendo's buying base as well as get people who like Nintendo games but don't want to be forced to choose between playing FIFA and Nintendo games to also buy in. On Nintendo's consoles for the last two generations people have been unable to play third party games or the full fat versions at least. With the Wii it didn't matter because it was cheap and seen as a must have experience for at least four years. For the Wii U, this matters because it forces the choice between PlayStation 3/4 and Wii U.

I like playing Nintendo games, I think they make some of the best games in the industry, but I don't have enough time to have both a PS4 and Wii U. I personally rate Nintendo's first party output as better than Sony's but with the spectre of missing out on MGS5 or FFXV by not having a PS4 it makes the choice too easy for me, I'll forgo Nintendo games. For me the issue is time, but for others it will be money or any number of reasons. However, the choice is clear - Nintendo games on Wii U or third party games on PS4. If Nintendo's next console was an easy port machine from PS4 (using almost identical architecture) and Nintendo tipped the balance in their favour by getting third party games, I would probably get that console, and I'm sure it's not just me.

The current console generation is going to last until about 2019, releasing at the end of 2015 would give Nintendo a good five years before they had to rethink their formula. Building a console using Samsung's "a little bit cheaper but otherwise identical" model would work in the short term, and right now Nintendo needs to think about the short term.

 

[Kerub]

Why are people suggesting they kill the Wii U before suggesting they drop GamePad support?

Surely selling a Wii U with Wii Remote Plus for $149 (and international equivalent), and continue selling GamePads separately, would be quite a feasible step to take in between?

Can someone explain why people think it wouldn't be a good idea to rebrand the Wii U without the Pad?

Isn't the gamepad gimmick the only thing that can make the Wii U appeal to a large audience? The COD/Madden/Fifa casual crowd is either on next-gen or 360/PS3, and have no reason to buy a Wii U. The audience that bought the Wii wouldn't understand what's new with the Wii U, and the hardcore Nintendo fans probably have a Wii U already.

There would be no place for a Wii U minus gamepad. There's no place for Wii U with a gamepad either, though.

 

[kmax]

Okay, so the big question is obviously how they move on from here. I think that we can all agree that the status quo is unsustainable now that reality has hit, so clearly, major changes needs to happen.

The first mistake Nintendo did was to not distance itself from the Wii. Wii U is a sloppy and confusing iteration that could of had a much better prospect if it was called and presented as something unique. It would of stand alone as the next, new console, and people would of resonated with it more efficiently. Nintendo tried to cash in on the Wii wave, since Wii clearly was a big success for them. The problem was that they clearly misjudged that mainstream had drifted to social and mobile, where there is much more accessibility, both in quantity and economically for the consumer. Had they made their next console differentiate itself from its successor, people wouldn't confuse it with the Wii. That's the problem, if people wanted a Wii, they'd buy a Wii. The Wii U is not the same as the Wii, but it has many similarities with it + the fact that it is directly associated with the Wii (Since it's named Wii U). The Wii fad has faded a long time ago, so they pretty much shot themselves in the foot there.

They have a variety of options on the table available to them, and I think that it's critical to examine them, as their old, current model needs to be revitalized. Why isn't this working? How do we fix our relationship with 3rd parties? How do we get the consumers back? What do the consumers want? How are our competitors faring, and what can we learn from them?

These are all important questions, and they really need to think outside the box on this one. There's no lenient quick fix here, as the console is a major bomb, so there's going to need some honest, serious self-reflection from Nintendo's part. Staying quiescent on this issue is detrimental, not only for Nintendo, but for the traditional gaming industry at large.

 

[Conan-san]

Just because Nintendo faces a steep decline does not mean the rest of the industry does as well.

I mean just look at PS4 and XB1.

I am looking and I'm seeing bugger and all.

 

[BowieZ]

Isn't the gamepad gimmick the only thing that can make the Wii U appeal to a large audience? The COD/Madden/Fifa casual crowd is either on next-gen or 360/PS3, and have no reason to buy a Wii U. The audience that bought the Wii wouldn't understand what's new with the Wii U, and the hardcore Nintendo fans probably have a Wii U already.

There would be no place for a Wii U minus gamepad. There's no place for Wii U with a gamepad either, though.

I thought people hated gimmicks anyway?

- family entertainment
- HD Nintendo system
- Mario Kart, 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Smash Bros.
- cheap, impulse buy ($150 is an achievable price point)

 

[Mr Swine]

Just because Nintendo faces a steep decline does not mean the rest of the industry does as well.

I mean just look at PS4 and XB1.

You are forgetting Vita which is probably doing worse worldwide than Wii U (except Japan)

 

[Pie and Beans]

I'm not even talking just Nintendo. I'm talking EVERYWHERE. All software is down across all platforms. Microsoft's gaming division still isn't profitable and Sony's all but dead given their debt. The launches were awesome for PS4/Xbone but where's the SOFTWARE ATTACHMENT? My brother didn't even buy any games with his PS4, he bought PS+ and is getting his games through that. You just can't have a piece of hardware and not buy games for it. That dooms it harder than anything else. Wii U has proven that more than anything else we can learn from its struggles.

You cant take 2 months of the new platform as any kind of good data on the whole industry. What you can take is that an 8 year gen was too long and the market suffered as a result. If you look at software sales for PS4 and Xbone, theyre damn good and the market was thirsty and ready for them.

What you can however also take for why the entire market is contracting is because the previously bigtime winner of last generation of 150 mil DS and 100 mil Wii is fading into the shadows. The entire dedicated handheld software sales market is disappearing to the "other side" of the app stores. Sony's had to sacrifice that end of things with the PSP base disappearing, but the rampant piracy had prepared them for that anyway, its just the hw sales they'll miss but hope to make up on PS4. Other than that, its business as usual for the Xbox and Playstation market. No more extended audience skewing things out of proportion, back to the standard market. Maybe whoever achieves extended market netting next will bother to find a way to keep them in the console gaming market permanently.

 

[The_Lump]

I'm all for a Nintendo Steambox which triple boots Steam OS/ Nintendo OS/Android.

Who's in?


Anybody?

 

[Griss]

And this is the beginning of the end of traditional gaming.

This post basically sums up the general public's opinion on games. Why buy a game for full price when I can wait for the firesale on Steam in a couple of months? Why buy a handheld when I can play Candy Crush on my phone?

Budgets have exploded but game prices have fallen like stones. This isn't how economics works. I'm not judging this post but its easy to see that something has to change in the traditional gaming sense or all consoles and AAA games are on very short lifespans.



I'm not even talking just Nintendo. I'm talking EVERYWHERE. All software is down across all platforms. Microsoft's gaming division still isn't profitable and Sony's all but dead given their debt. The launches were awesome for PS4/Xbone but where's the SOFTWARE ATTACHMENT? Look at the NPD software sales for two incredible, record breaking launches. Still down 5%. My brother didn't even buy any games with his PS4, he bought PS+ and is getting his games through that. You just can't have a piece of hardware and not buy games for it. That dooms it harder than anything else. Wii U has proven that more than anything else we can learn from its struggles.

Yes, this has been happening for ages and it's a massive issue. People just aren't willing to pay for games any more. I don't know why. People obviously don't understand what it takes in terms of money, talent and time to build a great game. But as time goes on, there is a bigger and bigger catalogue of excellent old games that are cheap, and new games don't seem to be innovative enough to compete with them.

Once the paying public realise that paying for items in F2P games is a mug's choice then it could pretty much be all over. The perceived value of software could hardly get any lower. To think that people are reduced to giving away AAA games and then hoping players will buy some useless digital tat when they're in the game, like it was Disneyland but without an entrance fee... it boggles my mind.

I think this is a very real possibility.

Anyone in their early 30s with friends who have kids or who commutes on a train as I do can tell you that this is more a probability than possibility. There's no doubt in my mind that that's what's happening.

I don't think going third party is as easy and good as you think it is.

Great rebuttal!

 

[tanasten]

Another big mistake that Nintendo did was to abandon the Wii and the DS so soon. I think that millions of people ended deceived with the lack of games on these platforms. I got friends who bought the Wii last year... and they can't find games and half of the installed programs doesn't work anymore.

¿How much damage can do this type of treatment of your 100M userbase? And let's not talk about the gamers, because the Wii and the DS did killed millions of gamers from Nintendo for the years to come...

 

[RukusProvider]

Why are people suggesting they kill the Wii U before suggesting they drop GamePad support (EDIT: requirement, I mean)?

Surely selling a Wii U with Wii Remote Plus for $149 (and international equivalent), and continue selling GamePads separately, would be quite a feasible step to take in between?

Can someone explain why people think it wouldn't be a good idea to rebrand the Wii U without the Pad?

The core product has no desirability by the mass market.

Cost is just one factor, not the only factor.

In the US, the Wii u is not on anyone's radar and price has nothing to do with it.

It's a dead product, like the vita.

 

[Magicpaint]

This is really the dark ages for Nintendo. Of course their original WiiU forecast was ridiculous but there's a small chance they might even miss these revised forecasts...that's just scary.

 

[KennyLinder]

I think ultimately, people still want to play Nintendo games, but they don't want to have to buy another console just to do that. Seems reasonable to me, you wouldn't buy a Disney machine just to play Disney movies, the thing would be a disaster.

 

[BowieZ]

The core product has no desirability by the mass market.

Cost is just one factor, not the only factor.

In the US, the Wii u is not on anyone's radar and price has nothing to do with it.

It's a dead product, like the vita.

Of course it's not on anyone's radar. Why would anyone want to buy a tablet for their old Wii from 2008?

I think cutting the price to $149 would get people to have a second look, but obviously some bare minimum of advertising would be required. Like, a couple of ads on TV and buses that don't have a GamePad in sight. The idea would be to emphasise the price, and rekindle people's interest in a good, solid Nintendo console for fun family time and happy memories.

 

[mrback]

They really need something else to get people into buying into WiiU, account systems & vastly improved Virtual console are a given but something like say Occulus VR support maybe? I remember that Lucky Palmer guy saying that they want to get it running with mobiles so I'm sure the WiiU could support it. The steam box shout was a good idea, all the indie stuff from steam should be on there no question. They NEED to do something different, what that is I'm not sure. Whats the next lightning in a bottle scenario? Looks like this Occulus VR to me.

 

[SolarPowered]

It's almost morning here in the US. I fear the madness has only truly just begun on GAF.

Why are people suggesting they kill the Wii U before suggesting they drop GamePad support (EDIT: requirement, I mean)?

Surely selling a Wii U with Wii Remote Plus for $149 (and international equivalent), and continue selling GamePads separately, would be quite a feasible step to take in between?

Can someone explain why people think it wouldn't be a good idea to rebrand the Wii U without the Pad?

If you skim the thread you'll see that Nintendo is more or less paying retailers just so they don't drop the system. Dropping the price to $149 would kill Nintendo faster than anything anyone else here has recommended regardless of what cost cutting measures they implement. It's not feasible.

And this is the beginning of the end of traditional gaming.

This post basically sums up the general public's opinion on games. Why buy a game for full price when I can wait for the firesale on Steam in a couple of months? Why buy a handheld when I can play Candy Crush on my phone?

Budgets have exploded but game prices have fallen like stones. This isn't how economics works. I'm not judging this post but its easy to see that something has to change in the traditional gaming sense or all consoles and AAA games are on very short lifespans.

I'm not even talking just Nintendo. I'm talking EVERYWHERE. All software is down across all platforms. Microsoft's gaming division still isn't profitable and Sony's all but dead given their debt. The launches were awesome for PS4/Xbone but where's the SOFTWARE ATTACHMENT? Look at the NPD software sales for two incredible, record breaking launches. Still down 5%. My brother didn't even buy any games with his PS4, he bought PS+ and is getting his games through that. You just can't have a piece of hardware and not buy games for it. That dooms it harder than anything else. Wii U has proven that more than anything else we can learn from its struggles.

It's going to be okay.

 

[Chindogg]

I think ultimately, people still want to play Nintendo games, but they don't want to have to buy another console just to do that. Seems reasonable to me, you wouldn't buy a Disney machine just to play Disney movies, the thing would be a disaster.

True, but you don't go to Six Flags to ride Pirates of the Caribbean.

I'd love to play The Last of Us on my PC, but I know better. This argument isn't about what's a smart business decision. It's about what certain posters want.

It's going to be okay.

I'm fine but to disregard the numbers across the board while relating to current trends is just being delusional. Despite the great launches hardware is still only up 5%. Meanwhile software sales are still down. Where's the attach rate for the new consoles? Not one new console exclusive cracked the top 10. Not one. That's not good at all.

 

[spekkeh]

Samsung turned "a little cheaper" into a hundred billion dollar company. That business model is a proven one and has worked for companies time and again. Just ask Sony who were on the losing side to Samsung's ascent.

Samsung is succeeding in part due to the largest CE marketing spending ever. And the fact that mobile phones have shorter than yearly iterations. Being considerably cheaper did nothing for gamecube.

 

[geordiemp]

And this is the beginning of the end of traditional gaming.

This post basically sums up the general public's opinion on games. Why buy a game for full price when I can wait for the firesale on Steam in a couple of months? Why buy a handheld when I can play Candy Crush on my phone?

Budgets have exploded but game prices have fallen like stones. This isn't how economics works. I'm not judging this post but its easy to see that something has to change in the traditional gaming sense or all consoles and AAA games are on very short lifespans.



I'm not even talking just Nintendo. I'm talking EVERYWHERE. All software is down across all platforms. Microsoft's gaming division still isn't profitable and Sony's all but dead given their debt. The launches were awesome for PS4/Xbone but where's the SOFTWARE ATTACHMENT? Look at the NPD software sales for two incredible, record breaking launches. Still down 5%. My brother didn't even buy any games with his PS4, he bought PS+ and is getting his games through that. You just can't have a piece of hardware and not buy games for it. That dooms it harder than anything else. Wii U has proven that more than anything else we can learn from its struggles.

And yet here in the UK all Ps4 games are £ 52 - £ 60. Sixty pounds !

I bought 3 games for Ps4 - I would like to buy more, but the new pricing is nuts....

Next gen consoles are selling like hot cakes, the reason the attach rates are not spectacular is they bumped up games prices by almost 50 %.

I can only speak from my personal view, but if those game prices for next gen were similar to 360 prices in stores, they would sell allot more.

 

[Boy Wander]

I firmly believe that what is happening now is a consequence, not of this gen, but the N64 gen and the time elapsed since then.

Back in the day, a lot of people bought Nintendo because that's what they'd grown up with.
When they lost market share to Sony, the net effect that is now coming to fruition is that most people, people who now have kids of their own to buy consoles for, grew up, not as Nintendo fans, but as Playstation fans. When Nintendo lost so much share to Sony, they effectively also lost future generations.

Ergo, The Wii was an anomaly, and one that they're not likely to be able to repeat any time soon. The reality is that Nintendo's console market share has been in decline since 1995.

The one area that I feel Nintendo really needs to buck it's ideas up in is marketing. Their marketing is piss-poor half-arsed and has no coherency. Bottom line is, thing's sell these days, especially to teenagers and twenty-somethings because they are 'cool'. I bet marketing are not involved at all in the design / features of a new console at Nintendo. They should be. They need someone powerful in marketing to tell Iwata & Co that their ideas are more 'quaint' than 'cool'.

I see some similarities between Nokia and Nintendo. Both used to be top of their game, both have lost market share because they failed to keep up with the times and what was 'cool'.

Not sure where I'm going with this really, so I'll stop now

 

[KennyLinder]

True, but you don't go to Six Flags to ride Pirates of the Caribbean.

I'd love to play The Last of Us on my PC, but I know better. This argument isn't about what's a smart business decision. It's about what certain posters want.

Is Six Flags a theme park? UK-GAF here.

My point was that I think most people are happy with one system, and they don't want to fork out £200+ for a console just to play Nintendo games (under the TV).

 

[RukusProvider]

Of course it's not on anyone's radar. Why would anyone want to buy a tablet for their old Wii from 2008?

I think cutting the price to $149 would get people to have a second look, but obviously some bare minimum of advertising would be required. Like, a couple of ads on TV and buses that don't have a GamePad in sight. The idea would be to emphasise the price, and rekindle people's interest in a good, solid Nintendo console for fun family time and happy memories.

Then you're just left with a weak console that plays a couple of Nintendo games. It's just not the way forward. They don't be able to sell enough to be relevant ESP as xb1 and ps4 start growing their games libraries and with the xb1, coming down in price.

If Nintendo wants a serious effort again, read zoomgftw's approach and I agree with it completely.

 

[BikoBiko]

I'd just like an Apple tv-like device dedicated to playing NES/SNES/N64 games. It should include some kind of subscription service (like Netflix), with access to their entire games library. I'm probably not the first to suggest this.

It wouldn't solve their current problem, but I don't know how any price cuts or a possible new console could. Such a device would be pretty cheap to manufacture and at least make them SOME money.

 

[BowieZ]

If you skim the thread you'll see that Nintendo is more or less paying retailers just so they don't drop the system. Dropping the price to $149 would kill Nintendo faster than anything anyone else here has recommended regardless of what cost cutting measures they implement. It's not feasible.

Can you elaborate on this? I have read the thread, but I would be interested to read more about this retailer predicament, and why it's not feasible to rebrand the Wii U. So you're saying retailers would simply absolutely not stock a cheap GamePad-less Wii U? Or are you saying it wouldn't be profitable enough thus kill Nintendo?

Then you're just left with a weak console that plays a couple of Nintendo games. It's just not the way forward. They don't be able to sell enough to be relevant ESP as xb1 and ps4 start growing their games libraries and with the xb1, coming down in price.

If Nintendo wants a serious effort again, read zoomgftw's approach and I agree with it completely.

Okay, fair enough. Thanks.

 

[SmokedMeat]

They would have to take a different approach that attracts core gamers who are interested in buying the big name 3rd party games.

And what approach would that be when you don't have the third party games they want?