No, it's much smaller. We see growth because last year was really bad. Even if you don't count the Wii we only see a slight increase and the early years of last gen still had the PS2 doing well.
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
But the amount of core gamers has stayed somewat flat.
I dont think either console is at mass market prices yet.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Gamecube. Dreamcast. N64. Genesis kinda (outside of U.S, and U.S only towards the end).
I could go on maybe.
True, but I think Black Friday makes a much bigger impact now than early PS2 days. We'll see though, I'm not expecting >1 million either.
theprodigy
Member
It's not about the market getting bigger, it's about the recent shift of December sales to November.
John Bender
Banned
[360] 250k
[3DS] 500k
[PS3] 180k
[PS4] 650k
[WIU] 400k
[XB1] 900k
The Xbox One clearly "won" November NPD.
You just have to look at some statements&pics on Twitter, Neogaf, etc.
There is absolutely no doubt, imho.
[3DS] 500k
[PS3] 180k
[PS4] 650k
[WIU] 400k
[XB1] 900k
Don't understand it either.
The Xbox One clearly "won" November NPD.
You just have to look at some statements&pics on Twitter, Neogaf, etc.
There is absolutely no doubt, imho.
I believe.
John Bender
Banned
You seriously believe the PS4 is gonna win Nov. NPD?
As i said on last page. Winning by only 50k-100k in MS favor isn't winning. It is lost cause. So many cheap bundles and great deals ( especially @Target ) and beat main competitor by only small difference is NOT GOOD.
Disagree. It's winning in the since that it wouldn't increase the North American gap during one of the biggest console selling months of the year.
The gap has increased every month this year thus far. Stopping that growth and decreasing a bit during one of the biggest months of the year? That's a good thing.
Well, it's technically a win, but I think people will largely write it off as an effect of the heavy discounts and deals, and not a sign of MS retaking the US market. Basically it would be seen as a fluke. If Sony wins despite these deals, I expect a lot of people questioning whether or not MS can ever catch up, even in the US market. Also GAF meltdowns.
Yeah! But Sony did not have to take such agressive move like MS and it was not necessary. Beat main competitor in Nov. with small difference and lose bunch of money. Well....
I have been checking the monthly ranking updates daily (it's a habit when bored at work), and the normally daily updates of the Amazon Monthly rankings stopped 1 week before the Thanksgiving week, which coincided with the week of release of GTA V. The hourly rankings showed the PS4 rising to #1 spot for days,and then still staying up there up until near Black Friday when it dropped to prepare for the GTA V bundle arrival, but not one product was moving up or down on the monthly rankings for days.
I then proceeded on to checking the other few pages that have Yearly/ Monthly rankings (books and audio CDs) and they had the same problem.
The Monthly rankings page updates re-started right around Black Friday for all three product types, but nothing tells us if they are caught up with backlogged data or not unfortunately. I don't think that we can consider the current November Amazon rankings accurate for at least a few more days in the upcoming week imo.
Stuggernaut
Grandma's Chippy
Seriously, this is going to be the best NPD thread in years!!
[360] 180k
[3DS] 531k
[PS3] 150k
[PS4] 1009k
[WIU] 380k
[XB1] 990k
I am just shooting in the dark here obviously
[360] 180k
[3DS] 531k
[PS3] 150k
[PS4] 1009k
[WIU] 380k
[XB1] 990k
I am just shooting in the dark here obviously
I think MS has a significantly better software attach rate than Sony (correct me if I'm wrong) so even though I'm sure they are losing money on the hardware bundles, on balance I don't think they will actually be suffering too bad.
Not to mention I think there is a higher subscriber rate for Xbox users as opposed to PS users.
Goodacre0081
Member
anyone manage to snag a PS4 from here?
http://www.monoprice.com/Product?c_id=114&cp_id=11408&cs_id=1140802&p_id=11568&seq=1&format=2
http://www.monoprice.com/Product?c_id=114&cp_id=11408&cs_id=1140802&p_id=11568&seq=1&format=2
Seriously, this is going to be the best NPD thread in years!!
[360] 180k
[3DS] 531k
[PS3] 150k
[PS4] 1009k
[WIU] 380k
[XB1] 990k
I am just shooting in the dark here obviously
Come on, haven't you seen " some statements&pics on Twitter, Neogaf, etc."?
True but it's the smallest of victories in that case and consider the cost. All those free games and store cards plus massive price cut isn't without significant cost.
Zok310
Banned
I agree with both arguments. After all that effort, MS needs to take Nov by a landslide otherwise it's going to be a struggle for them to keep up with Sony. At the same time a win is a win.
PS4 1000k
XB1 1100k
WiiU 300k
Vita 200k
3DS 700k
Microsoft don't give a shit about costs - they'll just absorb any losses like they always do while making everything look rosy. Sony probably looked at it as 'we need to hit X amount of units' and probably did. Microsoft are well beyond looking at making profit from their hardware - software sales will be their main priority.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
So no facts then. Just saying, you can't say it's clearly won anything yet when you have zero actual proof
Did you miss the "some statements&pics on Twitter, Neogaf, etc." part?
Aquamarine
Member
That's a valid point.
Black Friday shoppers (at retail + online), according to NRF:
2005 - 60,002,566
2006 - 58,882,639
2007 - 65,965,489
2008 - 73,568,430
2009 - 78,701,810
2010 - 81,039,611
2011 - 86,261,438
2012 - 88,910,146
2013 - 92,052,843
2014 - 86,944,612
NPD November software sales:
2002 - $713 million software sales
2003 - $764 million software sales
2004 - $849 million software sales
2005 - $696 million software sales
2006 - $804 million software sales
2007 - $1.3 billion software sales
2008 - $1.45 billion software sales
2009 - $1.41 billion software sales
2010 - $1.46 billion software sales
2011 - $1.74 billion software sales
2012 - $1.46 billion software sales
2013 - $1.1 billion software sales
Black Friday does seem to be more influential now than in the beginning of the gen, but you also have to take the unique situation into consideration as well.
I'm thinking that offsets the greater Black Friday / November spend so a PS2 <-> PS4 comparison isn't unreasonable.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
No, not those press releases, I mean the Post Black Friday ones we haven't received yet^^ If Microsoft wins they are likely to talk in multiples of something ("tripling our best month of 2014" or something like that) that could give us an idea if more or less than 1 million. And I would never post my guesses with Abdiel either^^ Hopefully not long now!
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
Silly me, with such overwhelming evidence how could it not be a foregone conclusion
lol
No one should really see it as MS retaking the U.S. market since there would still be a gap between the two systems with the PS4 in the lead. MS retaking the U.S. market shouldn't really be thought of until the Xbox One gets close to completely closing the gap and/or going over the PS4 in sales (if it ever happens).
__________________
November is such a big month for sales that a small difference would still be good. If MS didn't do the deals/bundles then I could have seen the PS4 beating the Xbox One by more than 300K.
Their move has...
*Pushed many people who were planning to stick to last gen for another year or so into this current gen (via Xbox One).
*Caused current PS4 owners to get an Xbox One (with a good number of them originally planning not to get one so soon).
*Caused people to get sucked in Xbox Live for some more years.
*Caused early new IP Xbox One exclusives to have a better chance at selling more than they would have if MS didn't make these Xbox One deals/bundles; thus causing those games to have a better shot at having sequels in the future and becoming new franchises.
There's many good things about MS doing this (especially at this time) outside of just (possibly) beating the PS4 for a month; I also bet that MS will push ads and PR statements stating that the Xbox One is the top selling console this Holiday season which will thus make it seem to some people as if the system is the hotter item. MS could make those statements via simply beating the PS4 by less than 1,000.
So while I'm sure MS would prefer a big gap between the November sales of the two consoles, I don't think they would be too upset if they beat the PS4 in November by less than 100K. Looking at it as "not a true win" simply due to them winning November by a small amount would be very short sighted in my opinion.
The Shogun
Banned
Neither bundle was at a 100% sell through at retail so it will be interesting to see how much the GTA / Last of Us bundle and Unity bundle drive sales in December.
Aquamarine
Member
For a company like Microsoft focused on their console? Why? Their "Xbox One is the best-selling console in November" PR is just as effective as if they said "Xbox One is the best-selling console in November by 500K units."
What matters for Microsoft is the #1 ranking so they can leverage it in PR to help spark interest. A big gap / small gap doesn't really doesn't matter because it doesn't really affect PR's impact.
Exactly. That was just me stating "What company wouldn't want to beat their competitor by even more units?".
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
So based on your experiences would you say november is going to be a record month for either console?
We know the Xb1 has had a massive boost and outsold the PS4 but would you say "its sold damn good" or "we are looking at over a million sold here"?
slavesnyder
Member
No idea, but talking anyway.
[360] 250k
[3DS] 400k
[PS3] 120k
[PS4] 920k
[WIU] 320k
[XB1] 970k
[360] 250k
[3DS] 400k
[PS3] 120k
[PS4] 920k
[WIU] 320k
[XB1] 970k
And_Gignac
Member
[360] 140k
[3DS] 545k
[PS3] 110k
[PS4] 870k
[WIU] 425k
[XB1] 1150k
[3DS] 545k
[PS3] 110k
[PS4] 870k
[WIU] 425k
[XB1] 1150k
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
So it begins^^ Thank you! Can you comment on volume moved this year vs last?
The Shogun
Banned
I believe I know who won. I could be totally wrong due to there being so many different locations to buy systems on Black Friday and due to some crazy online deals that cant be found in brick amd mortar. Due to this my observations could be wrong.
Its gonna be a pretty huge month though certainly.
Stuggernaut
Grandma's Chippy
Ignorance is bliss?
Welfare
Member
Is it too much to ask for a PM?
Frag Waffles
Member
[360] 260k
[3DS] 490k
[PS3] 110k
[PS4] 775k
[WIU] 340k
[XB1] 820k
I'm very interested in the PS4 and X1 battle. Many BF anecdotes here along with MS confirming they took the first few weeks tells me X1 will take it. However, my own BF sightings (PS4 killing it at Best Buy) along with Amazon, Gamestop etc. bestsellers lists this weekend, tells me it's going to be a close one. Can't wait for meltdowns and PR chest thumping! Should be very entertaining.
[3DS] 490k
[PS3] 110k
[PS4] 775k
[WIU] 340k
[XB1] 820k
I'm very interested in the PS4 and X1 battle. Many BF anecdotes here along with MS confirming they took the first few weeks tells me X1 will take it. However, my own BF sightings (PS4 killing it at Best Buy) along with Amazon, Gamestop etc. bestsellers lists this weekend, tells me it's going to be a close one. Can't wait for meltdowns and PR chest thumping! Should be very entertaining.
BoxManLocke
Member
[360] 240k
[3DS] 390k
[PS3] 150k
[PS4] 930k
[WIU] 180k
[XB1] 870k
[3DS] 390k
[PS3] 150k
[PS4] 930k
[WIU] 180k
[XB1] 870k
Prototype Viktor
Member
[360] 213k
[3DS] 305k
[PS3] 173k
[PS4] 941k
[WIU] 333k
[XB1] 940k
[3DS] 305k
[PS3] 173k
[PS4] 941k
[WIU] 333k
[XB1] 940k
John Bender
Banned
lulz
Because it's so hard to predict, when you hear positive Xbox One news all over social media, pics, an official statement by MS about outselling the PS4 in the first two weeks, amazon monthly charts, Neogaf musings thread, etc. etc.
But yeah, whatever.
Act suprised when we finally get the NPD results thread.
Or maybe, we have just to wait until tomorrow.
I'm sure MS is already prepin' their PR statement for Black Friday as we speak.
spatenfloot
Member
It is possible that Sony chose the date for the PlayStation event with November npd in mind. If Microsoft releases Black Friday PR, it will soon be lost in new announcements and some sort of worldwide numbers, which would also weaken the impact of an NPD loss later in the week.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
He has said repeatedly that he thinks Microsoft won. To be honest, I see that as a given now.
The questions now for me is by how much and how big the month was for both.
Im not sure the 1 million+ estimates are going to be right (even mine)
Nightengale
Member
These kind of stuff are planned MONTHS and MONTHS in advance, before any 349 or even 399 Kinectless shenanigans.
SmartWaffles
Member
[360] 250k
[3DS] 520k
[PS3] 127k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 450k
[XB1] 1100k
Think the OG consoles won't sell that hot.
[3DS] 520k
[PS3] 127k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 450k
[XB1] 1100k
Think the OG consoles won't sell that hot.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
There's lots of room for doubt, actually.
One is MS's own PR statement; "3x last week of October for first two weeks of November" or something like that. When they only sold 178k in October, then you average that, then do the multiplication...it's actually a somewhat small/average number. Then considering if BF accounts for 90% of November sales (I don't necessarily think that's on a scale of 100, just "90% of what's already been sold for the month", if you will. I tried the "other" way and that number's just way too large to make it correct), that still doesn't give you a very big number. Just something around 500k.
I mean, if all that holds true, Sony either had to massively under-ship or I just have to be completely wrong on this one. And I've got no problem w/ being wrong here when the evidence is convincing, but I won't take photos w/ conveniently cropped-out pallets of game systems as proof, or almost any anecdotal photo for that matter. Give me some hard, concrete evidence they've likely pushed more than 500k or Sony's sold under 500k and maybe then I'll believe.
IndoAssassin
Banned
[XB1] 1800K
[PS4] 1200K
[PS4] 1200K