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NPD Sales Numbers for November 2008
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
I'm not up to speed, but is there even room in the market for FPS games on the Wii? I'm not saying there shouldn't be FPS titles Opiate, but you appear to be operating under the assumption that because the Wii has X units sold, it ought to support a solid FPS library.
As recently as the PSone, the dominant console in the market was not the FPS machine. Granted there has been a shift towards FPS as a cash cow genre, that cow appears to be tapped out and with a solid ceiling of 2 to 2.5 million units, and one that is dominated by the big 3, Acti-Blizz, Microsoft and Epic. A random third party would have a hard time even making a fifth of that number with a random FPS.
You know the tired charge that only 1st party games sell on Nintendo platforms? Perhaps its time to start a new meme that only 1st party FPS really are guaranteed to sell the most. This month's top 10 certainly looks more like a 1st party love in on all sides than any real victory for any publisher, yet people still read off the time tired script sheet about how things a grim for 3rd parties on the Wii.
As recently as the PSone, the dominant console in the market was not the FPS machine. Granted there has been a shift towards FPS as a cash cow genre, that cow appears to be tapped out and with a solid ceiling of 2 to 2.5 million units, and one that is dominated by the big 3, Acti-Blizz, Microsoft and Epic. A random third party would have a hard time even making a fifth of that number with a random FPS.
You know the tired charge that only 1st party games sell on Nintendo platforms? Perhaps its time to start a new meme that only 1st party FPS really are guaranteed to sell the most. This month's top 10 certainly looks more like a 1st party love in on all sides than any real victory for any publisher, yet people still read off the time tired script sheet about how things a grim for 3rd parties on the Wii.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Not really - what will they be able to put out in 2012 for $249?soldat7 said:
I'm thinking:
- a newer GPU - maybe on par with what ATI is selling now or next year
- more memory - 512? 768?
- a multi-core e700 based processor? How many cores can they fit on if IBM is building at 32nm? At 22nm?
I think that there will be an increase in the wattage footprint, and a slight increase in the physical size. There will be a significant bump in the internal flash, and the storage expansion issues and the wiiware issues will be worked out well ahead of time. There will be no more 'cleaning out the fridge'.
I have no idea if they'll aim improve their online experience to try and meet what Sony and Microsoft have done.
It will be a true upgrade. It's what will be expected at a $249 price point.
Arpharmd B
Banned
Mohonky said:
Poor, poor Banjo.
I +1ed him. Part of G/F's Xmas gift.
speculawyer said:
You do realize that these three things really don't cost much at all. Nvidia GPU especially, since it was outdated when the PS3 launched. WiFi in bulk isn't going to cost them that much. The HDD situation could have easily been avoided if they had selected one size and made it standard. Instead, they wanted to charge more for an iteration of their console with a bigger HDD.
I agree that they'll hurt themselves if they drop the price. But, if they don't they'll be hurting themselves even more. Look at the 800K+ sales of the 360, and the 2.04M sales of the Wii. If the PS3 had already dropped to $299, which is on par with 360 Pro, and only $50 more than Wii, they may have gotten some better sales. They might have stolen some of the sales from the other two consoles.
Or, maybe not. Maybe even with a price cut, the system would have failed to move enough units. We'll never know.
RumblingRosco
Member
xbhaskarx said:
Depends on supply. If they pushed most of it into November, December may only be a slight increase or even a decrease if they just can't meet demand.
Arpharmd B
Banned
bmf said:
They could decide to go toe-to-toe with MS and Sony next gen for the hardcore crowd, and sell a waggle box with comporable power. God knows the other two will have some sort of waggle in their 2012 boxes. And it's not like Nintendo can't afford to do this next gen.
bmf said:
They don't need to do this. At best Nintendo will release a Wii HD which will simply be a slightly beefed up Wii featuring, uh, HD resolutions. If they want to maintain their iron grip on the industry then they won't be releasing a drastically more powerful system (ala Sony). Nintendo swims in their own blue ocean and that's probably where they should remain (since it's the vast majority of the total ocean apparently).
Arpharmd B
Banned
Deku said:
Check my above post I was just talking about this.
I think you are forgetting L4D and WaW are 3rd party, or I'm just reading your post wrong...
shykyoichi
Member
My prediction is screwed. I nearly hit 360, PSP and PS3 numbers but I underestimated the sales of DS and Wii by a million.
Deku said:
No, no no! Those games I mention also create momentum. They're mainstream for their system and many people that later buy the other consoles will pick up at least one of those games, continuing to build like Nintendo's current top titles are. The main reason why Nintendo's are selling so much while those particular games aren't anymore is simply because they've been replaced by their updates that released this holiday season.
The only reason why they don't sell as much, even with a similar long tail or curve or whatever it's called, is probably because they're genre's aren't broad enough. On this point, I consider myself very possibly wrong, as I've reached the limit of my late night reasonings.
titiklabingapat
Member
Deserved to be quoted again.kame-sennin said:
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
shykyoichi said:
You really thought the DS would sell only 600,000 in a holiday month?
Proven said:
So basically we're back to making special rules. Still doesn't make sense to me.
And the mainstream argument is total bullocks. A game can be mainstream and still suffer from 'off the cliff' syndrome on the sales charts. Lots of average joes went and lined up to have their religious experience when GTAIV came out.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
The development cost for them will be comparable whether they develop something that can be sold for $249 and break even, or something that has to be sold for $599 in order to only lose $200 a unit.Arpharmd B said:
Sony and Microsoft both have bloody noses trying to build something super high end for this generation. They won't do it again. It will be (relatively) minor improvements to try and render at a higher res. They'll both be hawking 'waggle'.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Whipped Spartan said:I bet most wii owners don't even know this game exists.
Over 7 million sold.
cartman414 said:
Personally I'd imagine the next Wii to sell by more features. I.E. better controller, small enough to fit in your pocket, etc. while having noticably improved processing and somewhat improved graphics that are enough for developers to realize most artstyles.
Basically I expect Wii 2's graphics to be like this:
So yeah I wouldn't expect a powerhouse, but I expect that Nintendo will give the machine a little extra boost in graphics so that developers can truly have their games look timeless. However I expect Nintendo to push the fact that the Wii 2 is backwards compatible with the Wii so they can still get sales from previous Wii games and most of all not piss of developers that were late to the party.
Arpharmd B said:
Not only does this statement completely contradict itself, but it's just flat out wrong. Super Smash Bros, Metroid Prime 3, Resident Evil 4, and Red Steel have far surpassed a million units. And of course No More Heroes and Sin & Punishment aren't going to tear up the charts they're niche games, but they've sold so incredibly well that they are getting immediate sequels, well Sin and Punishment was a game that originally flopped but got a sequel solely due to strong VC release, hell proves my point even more.
LittleBigPlanet bomba prediction was right on the money. Sony repeatedly said it was one of their biggest games this season. If they really believed that, the dudes at the top just dont get it. Should have replaced home with LBP and gave a slimmed down version for free. And reduce the damn price for your console already. Goddam the PS3 is not even an option for people looking for a new game system, as its pretty much double the price of the competition for no better return. People dont give a damn about Bluray
Wii sales are ridiculous, but I wonder how many games that arent by Nintendo actually sell. Wii is so unique that many can have Wii Sports, Wii Fit and a few random titles and be set. I wonder if this huge userbase actually equals more opportunity for devs. I'm guessin it doesnt, and this is opportunity Sony should jump on. But instead, they will probably announce Eye of Judgement 2 and release it bundled with the PS3 for $449.
Wii sales are ridiculous, but I wonder how many games that arent by Nintendo actually sell. Wii is so unique that many can have Wii Sports, Wii Fit and a few random titles and be set. I wonder if this huge userbase actually equals more opportunity for devs. I'm guessin it doesnt, and this is opportunity Sony should jump on. But instead, they will probably announce Eye of Judgement 2 and release it bundled with the PS3 for $449.
Arpharmd B
Banned
Flying_Phoenix said:Basically I expect Wii 2's graphics to be like this:
.
It will take Wii2 to match Xbox 1.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
soldat7 said:
It will be a minor upgrade in 2012. Really. It will be. My thought is - what can they sell for $249 in 2012 and break even, and then I extrapolate from there.
ViperVisor
Member
xbhaskarx said:
That really shows you how they can not have enough of them. It's not high end hardware but when you 1st unpack a new Wii you are struck by the number of things inside. Console with 5 main bits with it. The Stand. 2 plastic things. Couple batteries. Lots of literature. Wii Sports. And I got mine before the jacket inclusion.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
2012. 6 years in.Trevor360 said:
DS will be 6 years in at the end of 2010.
Opiate said:
I didn't miss your point. I understand what you were getting at, but it's still incredibly flawed thinking. You can't act like those explanations are invalid nor can you expect those games to sell well despite their serious issues.
If something like The Conduit, an original FPS designed for the Wii in mind ends up good, gets decent advertising and still bombs then yeah, chances are third party FPS won't sell on the system. We really don't have anything to go on until a game like that comes out though.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Arpharmd B said:
I am aware it is an Xbox game but hell it looks better then many current gen games. Then again the developers pretty much solely worked on the games graphics for 2 years (oh and some multiplayer modes)
pgtl_10 said:
<sigh>
Stopsign said:
Why is it everyone acts like Sony owns GTA & Final Fantasy? Sony has no way of forcing a 3rd party to develop a game faster than they are internally capable of doing. This applies equally to the PS3 as it does to the 360. Sony wishes FFXIII was out right now, if they could have had it at launch, they would have, but they can't just magically cut years off its development time.
AlternativeUlster
Absolutely pathetic part deux
Who is the dude I had a bet against where if the Wii sold less than 2.5 million in December, he would have to make out with a dog? Damn it, I don't want to research it.
Basileus777
Member
bmf said:
In 2012 a system that breaks even at $250 will certainly be more powerful than the 360.
Warm Machine
Member
Game-Biz said:
Some execs at EA make low two digit millions when bonuses, company loans, company stock, and salary all come into play. Expect the same for those two.
bmf said:
Wii to Wii HD will be a bigger step than 360/PS3 to 720/PS4. I fully expect Wii HD to be on the level of the 360. Microsoft is selling the Arcade for $199 now, so in 2012 the Wii HD should be able to match it at a significantly lower cost. All I say is that they better have an HDD in there this time.
Nintendo won this generation due to waggle (game play) capturing the casual (X larger than HC) market. Next generation everyone will have some sort of waggle. Microsoft & Sony won't be caught off guard again.
Just don't see how Wii HD will compete if Microsoft & Sony comes out with system with just as large a graphic gap as this generation. Unless, Nintendo can hit another out of the blue home using another unique game play > graphics. Just don't see it happening. Expect everyone to have comparable graphic power next generation, like one before the current.
Just don't see how Wii HD will compete if Microsoft & Sony comes out with system with just as large a graphic gap as this generation. Unless, Nintendo can hit another out of the blue home using another unique game play > graphics. Just don't see it happening. Expect everyone to have comparable graphic power next generation, like one before the current.
Basileus777 said:
That is true but the game-development tools and costs need to come down as well.
knitoe said:
The key difference is that Nintendo won't define the next cycle in terms of your so-called waggle. That will be there but they will have something new and you can be damn sure Sony and MS are planning accordingly.
bmf said:
I try to do the same thing in my mind, I figure that MS is at least breaking even on the arcade pack. I read that somewhere...on the internets. They can match at least that power at that price-point...which would be a massive upgrade over the Wii. I just don't see how some people in this thread expect Wii level graphics simply in HD. Nintendo isn't crazy, they're crazy like a fox. Their next machine will be a massive leap in graphics when compared to its previous iteration, not its competition.
knitoe said:
I have a feeling that Nintendo knew its next step even before the Wii was released. Look at the cycles they've had:
NES > SNES
GB > GBC > GBA
N64 > Cube
For the N64 > Cube, they wanted media that would load as fast as cartridge. They got that in those 1.5GB mini discs. And they got better 3D graphics.
For the Wii, they most likely planned the next evolution of the Wiimote before the Wii was even released. And they've stated time and again that they didn't feel the time was right for HD graphics in this gen. We should see HD in their next system.
Deku said:
You're right, I could be just making up a stupid theory.
If I try to focus back onto the mainstream:
Proven said:
As you and others mentioned, a game can still be well known by the actual mainstream and still be front loaded, which in my opinion makes it simply known by the actual mainstream but not ever played by the actual mainstream. If GTA was played by the actual mainstream, would we really have these media explosions about Hot Coffee and hookers in videogames? No, because enough people would have actually played and tried it and know stuff about it that it would be an actually understood issue.
Halo 3, Call of Duty, and Gears of War are gamer mainstreams, so they're extremely front loaded, but because their mainstreams if the games are the go to games of the console, and the genre isn't throttled, then the monthly sales should be to some degree comparable. I think I'm losing sense again but just try combining sales of all of these major FPS titles and comparing them to the rate of sales for Mario Kart Wii, and they should be comparable.
I probably need to revisit my definitions and redefine them, because the only way I can make sense of this is if I say that all of the niche games on the Wii that disappear from the top charts but still end up selling a couple million, are comparable to Halo 3 and the like being front loaded, but even new buyers of the system often pick up these games, just not enough to make it back into the top 10 as well. I feel some evidence to all this theory is in the CoD4 sales lasting several months in the top 10 last holiday seasons.
Right now I feel like I've left a hole in all of this theory, though. I can try to cover it up by saying something like that by being gamer mainstream, Halo 3 and the like get the advantage of being both very front loaded and having silent sales, and Super Smash Bros Brawl and perhaps even Mario Galaxy can be considered a gamer mainstream title on the Wii as they've acted in much the same way, selling millions first month before disappearing from charts. But this would also be saying you can only sell millions rather than thousands every month by being actual mainstream and there's complications trying to match this up to the past like with the PS2 GTAs, but this is the closest I can come up with for an all encompassing explanation.
Fake Edit: Oh, I guess you can say the PS2 was the ultimate by having all three types, actual mainstream, gamer mainstream, and niche titles, and the other two had only gamer and niche, but all of this still needs some fine tuning. Actual Edit: Plus I wasn't on GAF back then, so I never looked at sales data. Give me some data and I could see if my theory of game types matches up with the top 10 lists of last generation, but at the same time, is it even worth it to bother?
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
hauton said:
price drops arent going to help the ps3.
sony tapped out, they want to keep the towel they threw in.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Trevor360 said:
____________
I admit the game looks good for being a last generation game but Conker is just leagues ahead of it.
soldat7 said:
...I was referring to the point in time when the Wii 2 would launch...
Also really Halo 3's graphics are nothing impressive especially in this day of the generation with games like Gears of War 2, Metal Gear Solid 4, and the likes out. I'm not saying it looks horrid but it just isn't on the top of the graphics food chain.
Basileus777 said:
But think about it. Nintendo will probably make the system smaller, sleaker, and more efficient.
Flying_Phoenix said:
____________
I admit the game looks good for being a last generation game but Conker is just leagues ahead of it.
...I was referring to the point in time when the Wii 2 would launch...
Ok, now imagine Star Fox Adventures with a 50% more powerful graphics engine, I think it would match Conker. Shit, there are shots of Mario Galaxy that match Conker.
Edit: Funny that we're comparing two first party games from the same company on two competing platforms lol.