I think many many many many people in this part of the thread don't understand the concept of development times, especially in relation to Gamer's Day. Gamer's Day had a lot of great games showing.. And those games are OBVIOUSLY still coming out for PS3. Even if PS3 sales were to drop to 50K/month, no developer is going to scrap 15 months of development because the console drops to a distant last place.
The problems that Sony is facing now aren't the games that were shown at Gamer's Day, and aren't the games coming out this fall. The problems Sony is facing now are where publishers are allocating development dollars today and tomorrow. Being entirely unbiased, if I were a publisher looking to create a new IP or extend an existing franchise I would ask myself the following questions in this order:
Can this games be done on the Wii?
If not, does the 360 have adequate numbers worldwide in the demo we're shooting for.
If not, do we have the resources to take this multiplatform to PS360.
Of course there are a few development teams out there who buck this methodology. Who wish to solely remain exclusive to one console. The other problem PS3 faces at this moment and in the near future is will the publisher force a platform shift in such development teams.
The PS3 is facing some serious problems. Falling to 10K a week in japan (previous numbers held by GCN), fallingunder 25K/week in the US.. publishers are taking notice of this... And while what some of you say about brand recognition
may hold true for a few consumers, virtually no devs care about brand recognition, just viable development platforms.
This isn't meant to be a "Well, the PS3 had a good run" post.. The generation is just beginning and there is a lot of time left.. But I don't think even Nintendo faced it this bad last gen in terms of public perception and developer hesitation. At this moment the PS3 is, IMHO of course, one big name loss away from officially hitting GCN status. Unfortunately about the only exclusive big name third party titles left on the system are MGS and FF, and I think it would go without saying that the loss of either of those as exclusives would pretty much seal up third place at this point.
DenogginizerOS said:
Ahhh. So in a span of 6 months time, you are convinced the Wii has proven to all developers that it will be the system to beat and they must now put many of their eggs in its basket and design games for its system that cannot be played on any other console. Because I still don't see what they have to offer in the next twelve months that will compete against the appeal of Halo 3, Grand Theft Auto IV, Madden 2008, and Gran Turismo 5.
I was going to change your statement to reflect what I think, but realized only one word needed to be changed. Most of someone's eggs is pretty stupid considering as you say.. a game developed for Wii pretty much can't be ported elsewhere.. However I PROMISE you that ALL third parties are giving the Wii serious attention right now and are most definitely think of games and IPs they can bring to the system. It is the number one selling system currently, and is probably less than 5 months out from being the number one install base worldwide with the US margin between 360 and itself shrinking daily.
As for your final statement.. opinions and all that jazz. The same could be said about Big Brain Academy, Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3, Pokemon Battle Revolution, not to mention the third party stuff... Heck, even one game on YOUR list, Madden, was generally regarded as BETTER on the Wii for 2007 than the other platforms. If EA gets Madden 2008 online for Wii, I can see a lot of Madden die-hards putting down $250 alone for it.. I also wouldn't count on NOT seeing a GTA of some sort appearing on Wii within the next 12-18 months. The other two games you mentioned are first party so pretty much irrelevant to this particular conversation.