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NPD Sales Results for April 2015 [Up1: Xbox One #1]

I hate the 'GIT GUD' line of thinking but I honestly can't imagine how any people find Bloodborne THAT hard. I mean there are hard fights but not until a fair way in to it. It does take practice and perseverance but challenge is a thing to be lauded in a sea of games that are 'press X to win'

It is made a fair bit easier by co-op too. My teenage boy has flown through parts of it by just using co-op for the bosses and he isn't even that patient and its hard work even getting him bother to learn controls etc. Pah. Teenagers.

TLDR 'GIT GUD', Lol.

I know, I know. I can shoot the nuts off a mosquito at 100 yards with the Black Hammer in Destiny but can't work up the fortitude to go through another 2 hours of moaning to get to a boss I have to continuously roll left, roll left connect a slice, roll left, roll left, connect a slice. Then hope not to get hit. It's been fun, because its different and my first souls experience, but I don't think the game is the GOAT like some do.

TLDR - bottom line is you're right. I need to Git Gud... damn it.
 
Budgets depending on the game should be getting smaller. There are cheaper ways to make a game now. Company Engines are cheaper and licensing Fee's are pretty much going out the window or are being scaled down for getting more people on their engines. Games can be made with less people now.(No mans Sky, Wild, Rime, Shadow of the Beast, even the first batman game was made with 80 people)

Yes as some game franchises grow so do the teams. But if the game is a yearly release you don't need 200+ people, and more than likely can reuse Engine assets, and character editors.


Games like Farcry 3 Blood dragon and the likes are made with smaller teams. Some big games that started out like The first Witcher game with small teams.

There are more options that are more cost effective to make a game. Which is why Japan is able to produce games at a fast pace, for series like DYNASTY Warriors.

Then what would you attribute the demonstrable fact that there are less games being released to?
 

breakfuss

Member
While not mad (I'm 34, I have better things to be mad about) I still am a bit disappointed that the Xbone is so close in NA, especially when I think the PS4 is far and away the superior console. When it wins a month, it's even worse. The 360 deserved it's success, at least for the first half of the gen, but I sold my Xbone after only a few short months of owning it because it just didn't make enough sense to own both a PS4 as well, and I couldn't very well sell the system that plays multiplatforms the best. So I culled the weaker link. Last gen it was the opposite where my PS3 was the more ignored system for the first few years.

I know there is a lot more to the console than mere power, and I really liked the interface of the One once I became used to it, but it was sitting around unused for too long like my Wii U after a while. With 90% of games being multiplatform, power is actually what won out however.

I think its because the PS4 is so reminiscent of the early Xbox 360, with an abundant library of XBLA-style games thanks to the indies and the power of PS Plus. I just can't warrant 2 subscription services either, so the deeper service (at least as far as "freebies" is concerned) won out.

The short of it is I don't think the Xbone deserves any of it's success, not when there is a better alternative out there. For exclusives it might make a bit more sense and that's what talked me into a purchase (Sunset Overdrive) but as a primary system I don't understand it.

Lord have fucking mercy. I'll say a prayer for you.
 

Theonik

Member
714k
1
7
4

This generation is so lame. I'm calling the PS4 will be 155k in May, just like the 360 did.
The Wii was sort of a firecracker it died pretty fast as the hype died down.
The PS4 still has some room to blow up once the price drops by $100 and if they can do something radical (AKA if Morpheus takes off)
 

Game Guru

Member
At what point does everyone accept that the contraction in this space has already occurred and that the new demand baseline for dedicated gaming devices has been established? It's self-evident in every data point and facet that the market for these devices is smaller overall than it was 5 or 10 years ago. So why do we keep talking about this as if there's an option that it's not? It's like a global warming debate sometimes.

All the evidence seems to show is that whatever collapse happened in regards to merely the PlayStation and Xbox happened last generation when the DS and Wii took whatever casual gamers the PS2 had. The Wii took those sorts of gamers out of the PlayStation and Xbox market last generation, and this generation, those sorts of gamers as well as a good chunk of handheld gamers had left to mobile.

This is why sales of consoles look stable once you remove Nintendo and handhelds from the equation. The collapse of dedicated systems this gen compared to last-gen is purely because of the collapse of Nintendo and handhelds. Both PlayStation and Xbox consoles had their collapse last gen because of handhelds and Nintendo.

It's strange because bone seems "immune" from traditional consumer satisfaction in NA but in Yurop they've been feeling the effects. Bad products would naturally fail in the face of good competition especially with these things are $300+, no way do ppl buy on impulse without researching on that kind of money, but we have different sales results to different areas. Marketing alone can't explain that unless the Americans are that stupid.

Bone being $50 cheaper is probably nearing the correct price to justify the power difference though, so if it remains cheaper by at least that much it's only natural ppl will start looking seriously at their decisions and bone might win the battle in NA but have already lost the war.

Your problem is assuming that the European and North American markets are the same, but I have news for you. They aren't. While Xbox One may be a bad product in regards to what Europeans want and especially in regards to what the Japanese want, Xbox One is a mighty fine system for what Americans generally want, which are games like Call of Duty and Madden.
 

Jomjom

Banned
I could definitely see the Xbone leading in sales every month from here on out, with the exception of Batman month, maybe.
 

donny2112

Member
As we can see, it's not that the XB1 did particularly well (it did ok), but the PS4 dropped significantly.

To me, PS4 dropped basically as expected for a March -> April transition, but XB1 held March weekly numbers unexpectedly. Historically, there's usually a drop in normalized weekly numbers from March -> April -> May, so XB1's hold is the real surprise.
 
All the evidence seems to show is that whatever collapse happened in regards to merely the PlayStation and Xbox happened last generation when the DS and Wii took whatever casual gamers the PS2 had. The Wii took those sorts of gamers out of the PlayStation and Xbox market last generation, and this generation, those sorts of gamers as well as a good chunk of handheld gamers had left to mobile.

This is why sales of consoles look stable once you remove Nintendo and handhelds from the equation. The collapse of dedicated systems this gen compared to last-gen is purely because of the collapse of Nintendo and handhelds. Both PlayStation and Xbox consoles had their collapse last gen because of handhelds and Nintendo.

What a great take, idea and synopsis. Thanks for sharing.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Hell yeah there is. And every time a Dying Light, a Bloodborne, or even a Mortal Kombat sets some type of sales record in a particular month or for a particular genre, that message is delivered. As it is when a game like Hardline comes out and fails... while these other "niche" titles sell incredibly well, the message is reinforced. Some (maybe one) publisher "gets" that right now. I think others are learning with every sales announcement or NPD release.

Make some gawdammed games, publishers. What the hell are you people doing?

I thought the consensus was that BFH didn't fail. Hence my tag for predicting it would bomb.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
Do we have PS4/XB1 Pies/hardware numbers?

Nice to see the Xbox One up over last year. I thought both were going to be down. Price sensitive consumers continue to sway to Xbox One.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Do we have PS4/XB1 Pies/hardware numbers?

Nice to the Xbox One up over last year. I thought both were going to be down. Price sensitive consumers continue to sway to Xbox One.


Please note that the below is based on preliminary data and is to act as a guide only.
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7_zpsmuzswmps.jpg~original


3_zpsencgyfvl.jpg~original
 

Jomjom

Banned
Really? I'm not even sure how they won this month

I think this is actually just the beginning. I think next month's gap will be even bigger. Then in June PS4 will probably sell about 30k or so more. Before Xbone goes on to lead in sales from July through probably about February 2016.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
Just to check what the evolution on a weekly sales basis has been (NPD/ US), I have normalized the numbers per week (March had 5 weeks).

The following numbers are rounded.

Jan:
PS4: 47k/ week
XB1: 37k/ week

Feb:
PS4: 88k/ week
XB1: 69k/ week

Mar:
PS4: 68k/ week
XB1: 47k/ week

Apr:
PS4: 43k/ week
XB1: 46k / week

As we can see, it's not that the XB1 did particularly well (it did ok), but the PS4 dropped significantly. Now as per the reason, there are probably many (including many deals in both Feb/ March but little to none in April, no significant exclusive software releases after Feb/ March, some stock problems at least on Amazon, limited ed. Batman Bundle in June, etc.), but imo it's clear that the $399 price point might be reaching the point of (relative) disinterest as well.

Jan:
PS4 - 188k
XB1 - 148k

Feb:
PS4 - 352k
XB1 - 276k

Mar:
PS4 - 340k
XB1 - 235k

Apr:
PS4 - 172k
XB1 - 184k

Four month totals:
PS4 - 1.052m
XB1 - 843k

PS4 dropped to about half from March to April but look at Xbox One...it improved from January to February but has decreased in sales the last two months. Xbox was still outsold overall by over 200k units. And when did the PS4 Batman bundle become available as im sure that has something to do with the decrease in sales. I think that May could go either way but June most likely already belongs to Sony due to the two Batman bundles. And im sure that E3 will increase the number for the last two weeks.

As of right now, Xbox One has the better exclusive lineup for the end of 2015 but yet, even then, it's not a guarantee that they win and even if they do, if it's minimal like April, then it just shows that even without any major exclusives, PS4 is still superior so just imagine what it will sell next March and April when Uncharted 4 and SFV get released exclusively on PS4? Also, chances are there won't be any major exclusives for Xbox One at the time since they like to release them between September and early November.

Funny thing is what happens if Microsoft reduces the Xbox One price to $300 come the fall and yet, still barely win like they did in April while PS4 is still at $400? Bottom line is that Microsoft screwed themselves over two years ago and they still haven't recovered. PS4 gamers may get pissed with the delays and whatnot but I rather have a delayed game as opposed to a bugged and glitch filled game at launch.

Holiday wise, I can easily see it being Forza, Halo 5, Rise of the Tomb Raider and a $300 price tag for Xbox One with special bundles for Halo 5 at the same price since the game would be digital as opposed to physical (which says a lot more than people realize) against No Man's Sky (which will include a disc release), Uncharted trilogy collection, Until Dawn (late October) and I think that God of War III re-master gets delayed until October as well and if Sony was smart, they would include God of War 1, 2 and Ascension.

What happens if Sony wins in the last three months of the year or barely loses despite having a hit or miss (NMS), a Heavy Rain/Beyond type game (Until Dawn) and two re-mastered games compared to two major AAA franchises for Xbox One and a huge timed exclusive?

While it all remains to be seen, if that's how it all plays out, anything less than a total and complete demolishment by Xbox One over PS4 would be a total and complete failure in my opinion.
 

cakely

Member
I think this is actually just the beginning. I think next month's gap will be even bigger. Then in June PS4 will probably sell about 30k or so more. Before Xbone goes on to lead in sales from July through probably about February 2016.

That is an ... interesting way to extrapolate existing data.

A 13k lead in April indicates a lead for the next ten months to you?
 
I think this is actually just the beginning. I think next month's gap will be even bigger. Then in June PS4 will probably sell about 30k or so more. Before Xbone goes on to lead in sales from July through probably about February 2016.

Eh I doubt they will win September with MGSV coming out and I see no reason for the gap to be bigger without all the deals from last month.
 
I'm still of the opinion that PS4 and XboxOne are hamstrung by their lack of new content. Remakes and ports are all well and good, but they are more attractive to those already invested at the hardcore level than new buyers. To most of the market, they see these systems getting the same games as their PS360s and shrug.

Publishers would have been better served flooding the shelves with cheap new ip than cheap "definitive editions".

Gears and God of War remasters are just part of the problem imo, both games run fine and still look great.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
Then what would you attribute the demonstrable fact that there are less games being released to?

So we are not including indie developer's I take it? Because the market has changed. AAA isn't the only thing shaping the landscape.

If your saying AAA I guess your right since there was a lot fo financial issues with over bloated budgets, and failed projects that led to the demise of publisher's and developers.
But when you see so many PC titles coming over to consoles, and doing decent, it's only matter of time before they start making exclusive games and growing.

CD RED has went from a no name studio that made an alright RPG called The witcher in 2007, to a powerhouse that now is one of the premier studios. Same goes for guy's Metro 2033, People who made magika now made Helldivers for PS4.
Team Meat are now kind of a hyped studio for their games, same for Big Behemoth.

We didn't have even half the digital titles we do now on last gen.
The back bone right now is Indie as AAA recoups. Indie developers will now start to become like Insomniac and get bigger making more games.

Were just in a transition phase right now. But one that with all the cheap engines available to make decent sized games are getting made on PC then being ported over or debuting on console.
Come next year I forsee more of these budget indie big scale games to be in full force along side the smaller focused games from big publishers.
Landscape has changed not the amount of games. If your only going to count stuff as big as Darksiders or something like that then I guess yea.
But games being streamed on PSN and XBox are not all big giant games.

Small/ Mid sized games are getting popular and that will grow, and with that growth the size of the studio and future projects.

There are more games being made, they just come out in a different form that is not budget AAA.
 
I think this is actually just the beginning. I think next month's gap will be even bigger. Then in June PS4 will probably sell about 30k or so more. Before Xbone goes on to lead in sales from July through probably about February 2016.

What happens February 2016?
 

RexNovis

Banned
Fair enough. You're right. I shouldn't have used that word.

Don't get me wrong I really wish you were right and it did fail (as horrible as that is to say) mainly because it's everything I hate about contemporary AAA development consolidated into a single disappointing game but alas it sold boatloads T_T

All the evidence seems to show is that whatever collapse happened in regards to merely the PlayStation and Xbox happened last generation when the DS and Wii took whatever casual gamers the PS2 had. The Wii took those sorts of gamers out of the PlayStation and Xbox market last generation, and this generation, those sorts of gamers as well as a good chunk of handheld gamers had left to mobile.

This is why sales of consoles look stable once you remove Nintendo and handhelds from the equation. The collapse of dedicated systems this gen compared to last-gen is purely because of the collapse of Nintendo and handhelds. Both PlayStation and Xbox consoles had their collapse last gen because of handhelds and Nintendo..

What a fascinating and eloquently stated theory. I had never really made the connection between the surge in Nintendo console sales siphoning off users from PS and XBX but it makes sense. But, we do know that there are people who have never owned PS/XBX consoles buying PS4s thanks to some previous interviews with Shuhei Yoshida. The question is whether or not that segment of the market is a significant portion of the PS4 install base. At the end of the day though, I think your right. I think the market that bought heavily into the Nintendo and handheld ecosystems last gen has largely moved on to greener pastures (Tablets/Mobile). It will certainly be really interesting seeing how the numbers play out by the end of this gen in comparison to previous install bases.

Your problem is assuming that the European and North American markets are the same, but I have news for you. They aren't. While Xbox One may be a bad product in regards to what Europeans want and especially in regards to what the Japanese want, Xbox One is a mighty fine system for what Americans generally want, which are games like Call of Duty and Madden.

Yes this is entirely accurate. The U.S. market has completely different tastes than most if he rest of the world and the XBX platform/brand is basically tailor made to cater to those specific tastes. So of course the XB1 will resonate more with the market the platform was made to appeal to.

I think this is actually just the beginning. I think next month's gap will be even bigger. Then in June PS4 will probably sell about 30k or so more. Before Xbone goes on to lead in sales from July through probably about February 2016.

What's your thought process here? Why do you see the demand increasing further in the absence of a new bundle debut or trade in discount advantages? At the very least I don't see how XB1 would take June with the Batman Bundle selling remarkably well. Seems to me that bundle will inflate PS4 demand in June by a significant margin and lead to record sales.
 
I could definitely see the Xbone leading in sales every month from here on out, with the exception of Batman month, maybe.

no one else sees it.

and it's 13k. with that amount it could've gone either way this month. we're talking about approximately 5% difference.
 

TsuWave

Member
npd threads are quite interesting, every time the xbox outsells the ps4 we get some incredibly reactionary posts. it was only 13k difference, this "i can see the xbox outselling the ps4 from here on out" just seems, i dunno weird. especially when its this close.
 

Ty4on

Member
As we can see, it's not that the XB1 did particularly well (it did ok), but the PS4 dropped significantly.
Now as per the reason, there are probably many (including many deals in both Feb/ March but little to none in April, no significant exclusive software releases after Feb/ March, some stock problems at least on Amazon, limited ed. Batman Bundle in June, etc.), but imo it's clear that the $399 price point might be reaching the point of (relative) disinterest as well.

The reason is April is a weak month. XB1 sales were higher than expected.

Here are some March to April numbers for random recent consoles with March normalized to 4 weeks (I didn't check if that was the case for every year). Only one increased.
Code:
297	249	56	54	212	127	184	89	54	159	104	346	297	209
199	115	48	36	116	106	113	71	35	174	84	297	236	130
 

Elandyll

Banned
To me, PS4 dropped basically as expected for a March -> April transition, but XB1 held March weekly numbers unexpectedly. Historically, there's usually a drop in normalized weekly numbers from March -> April -> May, so XB1's hold is the real surprise.

As I said, the XB1 did ok (it even did quite good if you will, possibly thanks to its promos), but the PS4 dropped -lower- than any other week in 2014 or 2015.

The lowest it had been previously was 46.7k, and that was back in July 2014.

43k is a new weekly low (April 2014 was almost 50k/ week - which used to be close to the normal in 2014), with sales down MoM (generally logical due to seasonaliy) but also down YoY, and coming right after a whole quarter (Q1 2015) where the sales were down YoY.

Not sure what's to argue about this really... There is no way, form or shape in which Sony can be Happy about that, although they might take a wait and see approach to this and see where the Q2 (Apr-Jun) sales lead before acting.
 
As I said, the XB1 did ok (it even did quite good if you will, possibly thanks to its promos), but the PS4 dropped -lower- than any other week in 2014 or 2015.

The lowest it had been previously was 46.7k, and that was back in July 2014.

43k is a new weekly low, with sales down MoM, down YoY, and coming right after a whole quarter (Q1 2015) where the sales were down YoY.

Not sure what's to argue about this really... There is no way, form or shape in which Sony can be ok about that.

well they've captured a lot of their potential consumer base. it isn't that demand is dwindling, it's that the people who were going to get a next gen system no matter what have already bought a system. combined that's 30+ million households. the remaining are people who are not necessarily on the fence but rather those that don't go running to buy a console. on the same note, xbox still has yet to maximize their potential base, so obviously a higher-than-normal (when normal is lowww) performance isn't that surprising.

sony is okay with it. as shu already said, they're wondering if they're selling too fast. ps4 and xbone also make their money back and can grow their profit per unit by not slashing the price when the costs go down throughout the years (remember 360 selling for 250 bucks on 2010 when it cost xbox 99 bucks to make on. yep, that kind of profit margin).

i mean, ps4 is basically 2:1 leading the xbox worldwide. a 13k difference, or a "loss" of 40k in a single month isn't going to make them "not okay". it's been 1.5 years since launch, and keeping it at an increasing or even maintaining pace in sales since launch is next to impossible, really. especially if they're managing profit margins the way they do. they don't plan to lose money on every unit. so far, that's the game they're playing. competition is selling at a loss (most likely), and playstation isn't about to do that just to outsell the competition especially if the difference is as small as 5%.
 

Game Guru

Member
So we are not including indie developer's I take it? Because the market has changed. AAA isn't the only thing shaping the landscape.

If your saying AAA I guess your right since there was a lot fo financial issues with over bloated budgets, and failed projects that led to the demise of publisher's and developers.
But when you see so many PC titles coming over to consoles, and doing decent, it's only matter of time before they start making exclusive games and growing.

CD RED has went from a no name studio that made an alright RPG called The witcher in 2007, to a powerhouse that now is one of the premier studios. Same goes for guy's Metro 2033, People who made magika now made Helldivers for PS4.
Team Meat are now kind of a hyped studio for their games, same for Big Behemoth.

We didn't have even half the digital titles we do now on last gen.
The back bone right now is Indie as AAA recoups. Indie developers will now start to become like Insomniac and get bigger making more games.

Were just in a transition phase right now. But one that with all the cheap engines available to make decent sized games are getting made on PC then being ported over or debuting on console.
Come next year I forsee more of these budget indie big scale games to be in full force along side the smaller focused games from big publishers.
Landscape has changed not the amount of games. If your only going to count stuff as big as Darksiders or something like that then I guess yea.
But games being streamed on PSN and XBox are not all big giant games.

Small/ Mid sized games are getting popular and that will grow, and with that growth the size of the studio and future projects.

There are more games being made, they just come out in a different form that is not budget AAA.

This guy sums up my feelings on where console gaming is headed. I feel the cost of development is getting leaner and cost-effective with PS4 and Xbox One being essentially PC hardware and middleware engines being much cheaper and easier to use than Unreal Engine 3 last generation. In addition, fans are becoming more and more willing to help with the development of the games they want be it through Kickstarter or Early Access. The rise of indies we are seeing right now is going to lead to the new mid-tier developers that console gaming sorely needs. These new mid-tier developers are going to come from the successful indies with larger hits that can justify console development.

While console gaming looks to be a collapsing market and is one if you are Nintendo or a handheld, I don't see the PS4 and XB1 as a stagnating market which would be nearly as bad as a collapsing market, but a stabilizing market that can grow if encouraged to do so like PC Gaming and Mobile has. The forest of large, old, dying developers and publishers has already been burned leaving fertilizer for small, young, newly-born developers and publishers to grow to replace them in the industry.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
This guy sums up my feelings on where console gaming is headed. I feel the cost of development is getting leaner and cost-effective with PS4 and Xbox One being essentially PC hardware and middleware engines being much cheaper and easier to use than Unreal Engine 3 last generation. In addition, fans are becoming more and more willing to help with the development of the games they want be it through Kickstarter or Early Access. The rise of indies we are seeing right now is going to lead to the new mid-tier developers that console gaming sorely needs. These new mid-tier developers are going to come from the successful indies with larger hits that can justify console development.

While console gaming looks to be a collapsing market and is one if you are Nintendo or a handheld, I don't see the PS4 and XB1 as a stagnating market which would be nearly as bad as a collapsing market, but a stabilizing market that can grow if encouraged to do so like PC Gaming and Mobile has. The forest of large, old, dying developers and publishers has already been burned leaving fertilizer for small, young, newly-born developers and publishers to grow to replace them in the industry.

You better explained it than I ever could. Thank you.
 

arevin01

Member
When PS4 leads, its unstoppable, the superior console, best value, but when XB1 leads, its only because of promotions and deals.
 

StevieP

Banned
I feel the cost of development is getting leaner and cost-effective with PS4 and Xbox One

Not in this world. This won't be the first generation where production costs go down. If you want to compete for mega dollars in this market, your cost has gone up. Way up. The type of executable you're compiling on your middleware won't change that. Indies being around and lively (especially on PC and mobile) doesn't change that either.
 

Mikey Jr.

Member
but imo it's clear that the $399 price point might be reaching the point of (relative) disinterest as well.

You hit the nail on the head. They got a good majority of the hardcore at $399. I mean, they got to 23 million in a pretty short amount of time.

They got to get it down to $299 quick to get the rest of the people in.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Final couple of charts from me.

One showing 2014 vs 2015 sales for PS4 and X1 in the USA and the second graph shows annual sell through for each generation for the first 10 years.

You can click to make larger.



 
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