Final couple of charts from me.
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Wow, this one really illustrates what a ridiculous outlier last generation really was.
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NPD Sales Results for April 2015 [Up1: Xbox One #1]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Wow, this one really illustrates what a ridiculous outlier last generation really was.
FullMetaltech
Member
Lol. I love that you put the No Dreamcast at the bottom. Amazing work as always Zhuge.
ProvenDeadly
Member
Don't change the narrative
Yeah I said maybe with the exception of June. While the Batman Bundle will definitely give the PS4 a boost, I don't think it'll be at the level of Destiny last year. I don't think people have that great an impression of Batman right now after Origins (yes it wasn't RockSteady, but nobody outside of GAF knows or cares) and people have a poor opinion of the Batman vs. Superman teasers. I think MS will have a great E3 this year because I think they can sense that they can perhaps take the overall lead back from Sony in the US, and will therefore throw everything they've got at the Xbone. The deals offered by MS won't end with what they had in April, which while big, was not widespread among retailers.
As E3 emphasizes the greatness of the holiday lineup, I think more and more Americans will be going for the Xbone to prepare for all those big games after seeing that Sony doesn't have anything for the latter half of this year. My prediction is based on my assumption that MS will continue to give great deals, possibly even better than what we've yet seen.
My thinking on this is just that the boost Xbone will get from the amazing holiday lineup should cool down a bit by then and UC4 should be releasing sometime near there, so that hype will maybe end the Xbone sales lead from the holidays.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
This post only makes sense if you have zero understanding of context.
Welfare
Member
Fixed. 360 and PS3 were relatively normal until the Kinect gave the 360 its second wind.
Final couple of charts from me.
One showing 2014 vs 2015 sales for PS4 and X1 in the USA and the second graph shows annual sell through for each generation for the first 10 years.
You can click to make larger.
So this is likely the peak year for Gen 8?
Slangblade
Member
Most fan boys sadly don't.
Welfare
Member
2016 should see both consoles at $299 and maybe an Xbox One Slim. That might be the peak.
So current gen is currently a little behind Gen 6 and a little bit ahead of Gen 5 in the US? About what I expected.
Not even close to true. Neither the 360 nor PS3 followed the path of any sort of console before them both being significantly more back loaded than the front loaded consoles of Yesteryear.
Not even close to true. Neither the 360 nor PS3 followed the path of any sort of console before them both being significantly more back loaded than the front loaded consoles of Yesteryear.
360 and PS3 had a terrible start.
CrowDieSlow
Banned
It really seems like your prediction is based on Sony announcing absolutely nothing than MS continuing to have good deals.
Final couple of charts from me.
One showing 2014 vs 2015 sales for PS4 and X1 in the USA and the second graph shows annual sell through for each generation for the first 10 years.
You can click to make larger.
Love that you incorporated this chart into your stable since last month, it's really fun to see for me
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
You have different taste. Is that clear? It doesn't mean that Toukiden or Tomorrow Children or NMS are less attractive games cuz they aren't Halo or Tomb Raider caliber. Right? Right.
MS won April cuz trade-in deals.
Here : ( minus Ratchet & Clank and you can add GeOW if you want ) GIVE ME SHOOTERS
What's 7.Gen? As in 360/PS3/Wii? Legend of Kay is coming to Wii U btw, so I don't think it can be on the list....
No games announced for PS4 this fall, X1 has had Halo,Forza,Tomb Raider. PS4 has Godzilla and a God of War remake, A Final Fantasy game. If I'm undecided PS4 could have a shit ton of games coming out in Fall, but if you don't know about them it's hard to make a decision about buying one.
Which is why I think Sony will fall on its face this E3. If they had games to talk about they would do so to avoid the above issues with current sales. The only thing they are announcing is Game Delays. Ratchet and Clank the most recent one. The lack of content is a direct result of Sony's financial troubles. They are turning it around now which I'm happy about. But these games take time to develop, which Sony didn't really have a ton of cash. Also just because PS4 is making money doesn't mean they are getting that money back. Sony I'm sure is allocating that some money to help some other struggling areas.
Which is why I think Sony will fall on its face this E3. If they had games to talk about they would do so to avoid the above issues with current sales. The only thing they are announcing is Game Delays. Ratchet and Clank the most recent one. The lack of content is a direct result of Sony's financial troubles. They are turning it around now which I'm happy about. But these games take time to develop, which Sony didn't really have a ton of cash. Also just because PS4 is making money doesn't mean they are getting that money back. Sony I'm sure is allocating that some money to help some other struggling areas.
Papacheeks
Banned
Are you basing that off of current AAA made games? Because games like Killing Floor 2, and the likes are made from smaller studios.
Same goes for Red Barrels Games who made OUtlast. They are like 12-13 people who made that game and it's DLC.
Look at the guy's who made toxik which might make it's way to consoles.
It's called smart design and budgeting. Which is why people like red barrels are ablt to make a game like outlast with few people. They are all veteran's and have worked together in the past. Used Unreal 3 which is super easy to use for them since most of Splinter cell games and Prince of Persia I think ran on them. And that's their background from previous development.
Making a deal with SOny for PS+ release was smart as well. Because the DLC sold well.
Now they are making a full fledged sequel and it will more than likely be a bigger game.
Same can be said by Team Meat, Super Giant games, each game they keep getting bigger and bigger. And they still have a relatively small team.
Look at Klei ENT they made SHank simple 2d beat'em up. Then made Mark of the NInja which was a little more complex and had more detail in it, now they have Invisible INC which is a stealth rts/ Xcom type game that people are loving.
And it's going to come to console, and more than likely make them jump again and make an exclusive game for console.
Untiy is cheap and easy, Unreal 4 has been very open for no Licensing fee's until a certain duration of time.
Veterans are understanding to make their game they don't need 100+, the need like 20 or 30 to make something close to AAA calibur.
With giant teams you get development bloat, which is why we saw so many high profile people shuffle around. Like writer for Irrational Games left to go work for Naughty Dog.
Teams that are huge usually doesn't become the best place to have a voice on development for a game.
But smaller studios do.
I'll see you next year when I'm right and more games like Killing Floor 2's caliber pop up, and are made by relatively small studios and more than likely more manageable budgets.
synce
Member
Final couple of charts from me.
One showing 2014 vs 2015 sales for PS4 and X1 in the USA and the second graph shows annual sell through for each generation for the first 10 years.
You can click to make larger.
Gen 8 lol I guess that's what happens when almost every console game can be better enjoyed on PC.
I'm not saying Sony will be announcing nothing, but they won't be announcing anything of real significance for this holiday. There's only approximately 6 months left. I think most everyone agrees that that is definitely not enough time for the first reveal for a big, marketed game. If they did, you know how big of a disservice Sony would be doing to that developer? I mean, I can't believe a big game, that the dev's been spending 2 or 3 years at least to develop, being mentioned for the very first time 6 months before the game is going to launch is going to make any dev very happy. If there was a big game coming this holiday, it would have had to be name-dropped previously at least, even if no footage or release date was given. The only candidate I can see for this scenario is TLG, and come on we all know that's not happening.
The best I think we can hope for is something like an LBP3. Do you consider that a game that would affect my prediction in any way?
What is this blasphemy?
Zhuge is clearly showing his PlayStation fanboyism here, by trying to wipe any record of the Dreamcast from the history books. When will these Sony shills ever stop?
lol
You make a cogent argument there, sir.
I suppose I should have seen this coming when Sony announced that 30 minutes of their E3 conference would be spent discussing the games they're postponing until 2016, but it's perfectly clear now. Thank you.
CrowDieSlow
Banned
I have no way of knowing what they will announce, and neither do you. No, most everyone would not agree that 6 months is not enough to between reveal and release. It's really ridiculous to assume that nothing of consequence will be announced, and acting as if this is an indisputable fact is even more ridiculous. I suggest waiting until we actually see what they have at their conference before making such bold claims.
Front loaded Wii sales combined with back end 360 and PS3 sales meant that last gen did not follow the standard trend we usually see with consoles. That doesn't mean to say that we can't see it happen this gen with stuff like Morpheous etc... being bought in.
Love that you incorporated this chart into your stable since last month, it's really fun to see for me
Glad you like it
What is this blasphemy?
shhhhhhh.
Well, it could be this year, could also be next year, also there could be an unforseen boost in the future thanks to a new peripheral/USP for the console.
You mis-took what I said. I was saying "currently" meaning last few months. I was not saying they would be discussing Delays at E3. Just saying right now the are not announcing "new games", just announcements about games we can't buy this year.
The Artisan
Member
I originally believed Ps4 could make it to 25 million by e3. I no longer believe that.
The PS4 usually leads by more than 13k. Even people who are happy about this win for Xbox can tell it's pretty much a wash.
Do you still believe 1% of China will buy the PS4?
FunkyPajamas
Member
Ohhhh hohohohohoh.
The Artisan
Member
Do you still think I'm a troll?
No he now believes the Xbone will sell 25m by the same time because he still clings to his belief that the Xbone will sell to 1% of China. Region unlock patch!
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Interesting to know. I think Nintendo might finally price drop the Wii U at least $50 (I think it needs a $100, but I'm pessimistic) in September or so then and try to ride out the summer with Splatoon....
I disagree. The Wii U is still more expensive than any other Nintendo console to date. It might simply be completely pricing traditional Nintendo console owners out of the market entirely. I'm not expecting a HUGE influx of purchasers, but it could lead to an ok (in Wii U terms) holiday. Remember, the GC sold 2M in the holiday of 2003 in the US by price cutting to $99 and releasing Mario Kart. Price can definitely matter, as the XB1 also showed this past holiday.
The last few pages have had some interesting discussions surprisingly. Someone mentioned this before, but it'll be interesting to see how these successful indies take their talents to the next level. The Wii U's retail software ecosystem has been completely barren, but their eShop has been doing pretty well all things considered. That, plus the generally large uptake of digital games across all current-gen platforms seems to show that there is SOME growth to partly counteract the decline in retail. Maybe the smaller publishers like Deep Silver can step in like they've done with Mighty No.9 so far, and start serving these underserved demographics with smaller/medium retail titles that started off as digital titles. Like I could definitely see Playtonic as a group that could turn into a larger studio, even producing retail games and the like. They definitely have mentioned making multiple games in their universe, so they could also create a following that way purely digitally as well. Will be interesting to see
.Steverulez
Member
This is what I've been saying, but people tell me I'm wrong because Sony did like 12/13 years ago with the PS2. Oh well, glad someone seems to agree with the reasoning at least.
Holiday makes a lot more sense for obvious reasons, they will have first party software, big bundles with Star Wars and others probably, I can't see them deciding to do it for the summer when there aren't any big releases and a drop could have a bigger impact on the market
plasmawave
Banned
Let's go China!
hipbabboom
Huh? What did I say? Did I screw up again? :(
I just want to help defuse this situation before it gets to personal. Perhaps if you post some data supporting your beliefs then maybe people will be convinced of them. Don't forget to watermark it with your username so I'll know you're the one who posted them incase others quote it.
Wow. I would ask if you're serious but I find no hints of sarcasm in your post.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Looks like the Wii U will finally reach 4M in the US this summer (aka it only needs 50K more right, so possibly in May)? While it's taken absolutely forever to get there, a milestone is a milestone I guess. I guess an eventual 5M LTD in the US isn't completely out of reach (assuming 500K this holiday...) And thanks for the work Zhuge!
Hm, cool to hear
.
Duxxy3
Member
Final couple of charts from me.
One showing 2014 vs 2015 sales for PS4 and X1 in the USA and the second graph shows annual sell through for each generation for the first 10 years.
You can click to make larger.
Just wanted to thank you for your work.
anexanhume
Member
Nah man, just about that time will be Quantum Break hype train. In fact, I don't see Sony ever getting back in front.
PS3 still out selling PS4?
Idempotent Button
Banned
I'm really torn on this whole thing.
I'm glad XBOX One is selling better, but I dearly wish the thing had more go under the hood. My PC absolutely decimates my PS4 and X1 combined.
I'm glad XBOX One is selling better, but I dearly wish the thing had more go under the hood. My PC absolutely decimates my PS4 and X1 combined.
Welfare
Member
No it didn't. Launch aligned, the PS3 had a better second April.
DarkPhoenix
Neo Member
Let's say:
May 2015 - 4M
December 31, 2015 - 4.6M
December 31, 2016 - 5.35M
November 2017 - 5.8M (Supposed NX release this month)
And maybe 6M in the whole cycle.
JayhawkerStL
Banned
Niche title with tons of hype. It was never going to have a tail, let alone a long one. If someone didn't buy in early, the tons of impressions about it being hard as hell, constant dying, and long load times after each death meant that this was a game for the committed.
It's a great game, but I never believed it was a good investment by Sony to move consoles. The Order may have been a swing and a miss, but at least it the type of game that could attract a larger audience.
theprodigy
Member
600k over the 2nd half of the year? lol that would terrible, I doubt it
Historically, for the PS3, it looks like most of the price cuts/ new models for Sony have happened around Gamescom (Slim 120Gb) or early/ mid September (Super Slim), with new models releasing in September/ October (the 40Gb and the $399 price were announced Oct 18th 2007, for a release in November).
For the PS2, it was more around April/ May it seems, right before E3.
The kicker here is double:
1) Sales have been decreasing YoY
2) There is no Sony presser this year at Gamescom, and the Paris Game Show is -quite late- in the year (October 27th afaik).
So while originally I was thinking that PGS was a shoe-in for a price cut announcement, I'm not so sure anymore. But we'll see in one month
Futurematic
Member
Thanks for the charts, ZhugeEX, they are seriously awesome to have.
I mean they're fundamentally flawed (no 3DO, no Atari Panther, no Amiga CD 32, no Panasonic M2, and of course no Sega Katana) but I know you do your best.
EDIT:
Exclusive RPGs do an above average job at pushing consoles, action games do not, I imagine Bloodborne split the difference though the very high Metacritic should have helped. (FPS & racers do better than either, dunno where TPS would fall into.)
I mean they're fundamentally flawed (no 3DO, no Atari Panther, no Amiga CD 32, no Panasonic M2, and of course no Sega Katana) but I know you do your best.
EDIT:
Exclusive RPGs do an above average job at pushing consoles, action games do not, I imagine Bloodborne split the difference though the very high Metacritic should have helped. (FPS & racers do better than either, dunno where TPS would fall into.)
Refreshment.01
Member
Please, can someone repost the estimated numbers for the month? The thread got big really fast.
Thank you.
Thank you.
It was 2nd overall in March, 4th in terms of SKUs in April, is one of the few PS4 games to do well in Japan, and sold better than Sony expected in Europe according to an interview this week, and passed a million a while ago. So you can give up on this phony narrative of Bloodborne not selling well and not being a good investment.