Sho_Nuff82 said:
The article you posted gave numbers from 2009. Retail dollars are down since then - I'm going to take shot in the dark and say that DD sales are going up over the same time period.
Unless DD sales were at the highest percentage possible that was predicted and near or literally doubled in the past year (which the former is extremely unlikely and the latter is impossible), then digital distribution still isn't as satisfying to the big publishers as retail.
Sho_Nuff82 said:
Revenue may not be the same, but I think you and I are arguing the same thing; the market cannot sustain an indefinite push for more AAA content..
We are arguing the same thing. I just
think you're jumping the gun on how fast the migration should go, unless I'm misunderstanding your posts.
Yes publishers and developers should flee from their current model. It's unsustainable and only brings harm to the developers, consumers, the industry itself, and to them most importantly the publishers themselves.
However, they can't take the plunge just yet for two huge reasons:
#1 The Hardware Owners Aren't Ready and Are Currently Being Tyrants
#2 The Market isn't Ready
For #1 - Currently none of the big three's systems are designed to have digital distribution to be taken seriously. Nintendo systems need no explanation what so ever. You don't have an account, it comes packed in with only 512MB, the menu navigation is horrible, if your storage space gets damaged it's difficult to get your games back, and (etc. X ∞
. With the Xbox 360 one of the SKU's comes with only 256MB packed in, Microsoft has set the standard for retail games on their service to be charging full price, and other shit. But the real problem is how harsh the console vendors are to the developers.
Microsoft for example deletes games that are underperforming and under a certain score (though this is two years old so not sure if this is still true),
is harsh on how often developers update their games, how much free content is in their games, and limits how many games they can publish in a given time frame (I can't find the source to this anywhere but I know for a fact I saw this posted in GAF, you have to trust me). XBLA, PSN, and Wiiware were designed to satisfy small pick up and play games from independent developers, not full adventures from the big boys as well. People seem to forget this fact.
Now these things may sound trivial but compared to Android, iOS, and PC's offerings they are much much more tempting as their policies are much more lax (yes even Apple's) and their hardware is designed for digital distribution, hence why most of these types of games are found there. It's going to take a re-imagining of the console to satisfy this type of development. And the current hardware makers aren't racing out of the gate to not only cut publishers a better deal in royalties, but also to compete against themselves.
#2 Digital distribution, especially for gaming, is in it's infancy. You can post about Limbo all you want. But when the best selling game on that service sells 300,000 units
world-wide it isn't all that impressive. Especially when it was rather a loaded month for the digital services while it was nearly a wasteland for retail.
If digital distribution gaming is going to be a hit anywhere first it's going to be on media devices such as iOS and Android because that's where the market is the strongest currently. And while it's made great strides in the past 3 years or so since the App Store's introduction it still has a long way to go. JUST now there are engines being developed for the platforms that truly push them (see iD and Epic). But again they have a long way to go. And this is mostly due to the market. Digital download sales for non-casual games outside of PC just are nowhere near retail sales. Games like Chaos Rings and Zenonia are nice, but they are nowhere near as common as they should be nor are they even close to being the biggest sellers on the platforms they are on or compared to retail on consoles.
In short: It's inevitability that publishers/developers will adopt the <$2 million model. However the current generation just isn't ready. Most of the hardware out now isn't designed for it and the market in general is still wary for paying to play their games in digital form. It's really a matter of time: time for the console makers to create platforms that truly cater to this style of developments, time for the market to adapt to this development, and time for publishers to switch their strategies. I'd give it 8 years before the industry makes this complete 180.
charlequin said:
Errr, no. 3/01 - 11/04 isn't even four whole years. DS is going to manage at minimum six.
Opps. I always forget that the DS launched in 2004 not in 2005.
