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NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]

If this is accurate, late gen should be really good. 2014-15 really proved that the market has remained for AAA games, so from 2017 onward releases should pick up a bit.

You can already see it ramping up now, look how many games were announced in the back half of 2015 for 2016 release. Like I said I think 2016 will be the first year in a while we will see packaged games up YOY
 
So if we go way back to the early phases of the thread, I wanted to weigh in on the AAA industry sustainability debate people were having.

To me, the current revenue is not problematic. If we look at the software for the PS4/XB1, they're generating about the same amount of revenue as the 360/PS3, and that's before we even get to digital revenue.

The actual problem is the process of making the games and how much rides on each one. We have maybe 1/3rd as many AAA games releasing per year as we used to, and they've went from taking 2-3 years to develop to 3-4 years. They're also in increasingly few genres and varieties. Consumers seem okay with the current situation judging by the rate at which they're buying consoles and the games themselves, but let's just keep forecasting this out.

What happens if next generation we have half as many AAA titles a year as we do now and they start taking 4-5 years to develop each? Are consumers still happy? Have they fully embraced some smaller titles and especially digital games? How about publishers? Is it still okay for games to fail? It's important that a game can fail and it not be a total disaster for the publisher, because quite frankly, there are always going to be titles that don't do well, if for no other reason than what was hot when you started making your game 3-4 years ago might not still be hot when it releases. If you made 30 games a year and 5 of them failed, that was fine. If you're making 3 games a year with the same number of staff and one of them fails, that's like 10 did. If two fail, that's like 20 did before. It's a significant scaling issue.

Before deleting his tweets, the head of Avalanche studios was explaining how he was spending more per month on Mad Max than the entire development budget of Just Cause 1. That game didn't exactly light the chats on fire and it took around four years to make. Maybe only 12-24 months of that was at the burn rate he was referring to, but that game probably hurt Warner's otherwise very successful year a fair bit.

Maybe we've hit a plateau and the general costs and timeframe of making games isn't going to go up by a meaningful amount anymore, but to me, while there's plenty of demand for many of these games as they come out, this is the core struggle they face.

I genuinely, honestly believe the industry cannot survive another ramp up of production budgets from here. They are at their max as-is. I hope consumers will eternally be okay with that plateau and the limitations that come with it...

...otherwise, the mainstream industry will die.

I really don't want to see the day where this glorious industry withers away because consumers insist upon games with even more hyperrealism that only increasingly-inflated budgets can provide.

Naturally, graphics will incrementally improve over time as tech matures and asset production becomes more efficient. But aside from baseline improvements I genuinely do fear for the future of expectations. I haven't thought this in 30 years of being invested in the video game industry, but I do feel as if it's finally rearing its ugly head to haunt us.

I know I will forever be content with niche Japanese developers who produce on a small budget with tech eternally frozen at the PS3 level. I will always champion the indies where everyone is dedicated to turning back the clock to small, dedicated teams and tiny development budgets like back in the old days.

I just hope enough people think like me to keep this industry alive and thriving.
 
I talk to consumers every single day. Every day. Its what I do in the industry without going into any specifics. I resoundingly hear one thing, that may really surprise you, "Where are the games?" Consumers are starving for them on current gen. Buying habits are not the problem, publisher confidence is.
 

bombshell

Member
If this is accurate, late gen should be really good. 2014-15 really proved that the market has remained for AAA games, so from 2017 onward releases should pick up a bit.

It's already picking up A LOT this year.

Just looking at the voting results in this thread there's a lot of very big titles even when ignoring the top 25.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I genuinely, honestly believe the industry cannot survive another ramp up of production budgets from here. They are at their max as-is. I hope consumers will eternally be okay with that plateau and the limitations that come with it...

...otherwise, the mainstream industry will die.

I really don't want to see the day where this glorious industry withers away because consumers insist upon games with even more hyperrealism that only increasingly-inflated budgets can provide.

Naturally, graphics will incrementally improve over time as tech matures and asset production becomes more efficient. But aside from baseline improvements I genuinely do fear for the future of expectations. I haven't thought this in 30 years of being invested in the video game industry, but I do feel as if it's finally rearing its ugly head to haunt us.

I know I will forever be content with niche Japanese developers who produce on a small budget with tech eternally frozen at the PS3 level. I will always champion the indies where everyone is dedicated to turning back the clock to small, dedicated teams and tiny development budgets like back in the old days.

I just hope enough people think like me to keep this industry alive and thriving.

Well said, and completely agreed.
 
I genuinely, honestly believe the industry cannot survive another ramp up of production budgets from here. They are at their max as-is. I hope consumers will eternally be okay with that plateau and the limitations that come with it...

...otherwise, the mainstream industry will die.

I really don't want to see the day where this glorious industry withers away because consumers insist upon games with even more hyperrealism that only increasingly-inflated budgets can provide.

Naturally, graphics will incrementally improve over time as tech matures and asset production becomes more efficient. But aside from baseline improvements I genuinely do fear for the future of expectations. I haven't thought this in 30 years of being invested in the video game industry, but I do feel as if it's finally rearing its ugly head to haunt us.

I know I will forever be content with niche Japanese developers who produce on a small budget with tech eternally frozen at the PS3 level. I will always champion the indies where everyone is dedicated to turning back the clock to small, dedicated teams and tiny development budgets like back in the old days.

I just hope enough people think like me to keep this industry alive and thriving.

I definitely agree with the bolded :)
 
I think whether the industry can take another production increase (to be defined as a new baseline and not some outliers) depends entirely on whether the market can take another price increase. This does not necessarily mean a rise to $70, though I don't entirely discount that, but whether high-budget, high-production games will eventually need to just completely ape mobile revenue models.

A future where a game like Second Son sells missions from day one isn't unreasonable to predict. We could slowly see this creep in within the coming years and either back off if it turns out the audience isn't accepting of it or progress to a level they do find acceptable by the middle of next generation.

We'll see how it shakes out. I agree that the baseline probably can't rise on its own anymore, but I think the level we're at is also going to need some stabilizing in the near future.
 
I talk to consumers every single day. Every day. Its what I do in the industry without going into any specifics. I resoundingly hear one thing, that may really surprise you, "Where are the games?" Consumers are starving for them on current gen. Buying habits are not the problem, publisher confidence is.
Human nature is bizarre.
No matter what media, film, music, games - people want the new stuff.
There are so many amazing things that exist and they just did not see/hear/play so far, but as long as it's not new they can't get excited (as long as it has no 75% discount).
Thank god for that.
 
I dont think high end tech is really much of an issue. The average consumer doesn't really care, they just want games they like.

FO4 is probably the ugliest of the major AAA releases in 2015, didn't massively evolve the gameplay formula, and by AAA standards was made by a smaller sized team. Its sold through more than 8.5 million copies in 2 months. We shouldn't be afraid of consumers demanding better tech, we should be afraid of publisher confidence and lack of risk taking. Its the most dangerous factor in the current climate imo.
 
I think whether the industry can take another production increase (to be defined as a new baseline and not some outliers) depends entirely on whether the market can take another price increase. This does not necessarily mean a rise to $70, though I don't entirely discount that, but whether high-budget, high-production games will eventually need to just completely ape mobile revenue models.

A future where a game like Second Son sells missions from day one isn't unreasonable to predict. We could slowly see this creep in within the coming years and either back off if it turns out the audience isn't accepting of it or progress to a level they do find acceptable by the middle of next generation.

We'll see how it shakes out. I agree that the baseline probably can't rise on its own anymore, but I think the level we're at is also going to need some stabilizing in the near future.

Prices for games have increased this gen, just devs / pubs were very smart about how they did it. The Season Pass / DLC becoming standard for every AAA game. Consumers are spending more per new title on consoles than at any other point.

For every person that bought Black OPs 3 and the Season Pass they spent $110 on it. Same for Battlefront. FO4 and the Season Pass came out to $90.
 

Dinjooh

Member
I know I will forever be content with niche Japanese developers who produce on a small budget with tech eternally frozen at the PS3 level. I will always champion the indies where everyone is dedicated to turning back the clock to small, dedicated teams and tiny development budgets like back in the old days.

I just hope enough people think like me to keep this industry alive and thriving.

I want to frame this and put it on a wall.
 
I am still surprised why product placement or in game ads are so seldomly done in AAA games compared to movies.

Damn phantasy worlds just have no consumer goods.
 

Parham

Banned
I dont think high end tech is really much of an issue. The average consumer doesn't really care, they just want games they like.

FO4 is probably the ugliest of the major AAA releases in 2015, didn't massively evolve the gameplay formula, and by AAA standards was made by a smaller sized team. Its sold through more than 8.5 million copies in 2 months. We shouldn't be afraid of consumers demanding better tech, we should be afraid of publisher confidence and lack of risk taking. Its the most dangerous factor in the current climate imo.

Would Fallout 4 be a good example? What it lacks in production values, it makes up in sheer scale.
 
I suspect 2016 will be the first year in a long time we see packaged titles up YOY

2015 was the year that SW revenues experienced the smallest YoY decline since 2008.

I completely agree that packaged sales will be up this year, to tune tune of around 3-4% in consumer spend.

I believe in the rumors about half-step console iterations, and to the idea that somehow MS is going to merge Win10 and the Xbox platform together because of the ideas that Muclair just touched on.

I think the days of firm console gen leaps are no longer certain. And I think you'll start seeing this being presented at E3. Could be wrong, don't think I am.
 
Would Fallout 4 be a good example? What it lacks in production values, it makes up in sheer scale.

I think its a solid example. The team size for example is tiny compared to something on the scale of Ubisofts AAA games and also recycled an old engine. I bet people would be surprised on the budget of that one, big no doubt but I bet it was much smaller than many other AAA games of last year.
 
2015 was the year that SW revenues experienced the smallest YoY decline since 2008.

I completely agree that packaged sales will be up this year, to tune tune of around 3-4% in consumer spend.

Ah, good observation Cosmic. PSVR could also help quite a bit if a chunk of its titles receive a retail version.
 

Parham

Banned
I think its a solid example. The team size for example is tony compared to something on the scale of Ubisofts AAA games and also recycled an old engine. I bet people would be surprised on the budget of that one, big no doubt but I bet it was much snaller than many other AAA games of last year.

I wonder how the production and marketing costs for Fallout 4 compare to Fallout 3 and Skyrim. It's a shame we'll probably never get those numbers.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Annual sales for generation.
This shows annual sell through for each generation with year 1 being the year that the first console in that generation released.
Year 1 for gen 5 is 1995, Gen 6 is 2000, Gen 7 is 2005 and Gen 8 is 2012.
Launches are not aligned.

CY3v142WkAAMrpg.jpg:large


Credit for Zhuge.
 

The God

Member
2015 was the year that SW revenues experienced the smallest YoY decline since 2008.

I completely agree that packaged sales will be up this year, to tune tune of around 3-4% in consumer spend.

I believe in the rumors about half-step console iterations, and to the idea that somehow MS is going to merge Win10 and the Xbox platform together because of the ideas that Muclair just touched on.

I think the days of firm console gen leaps are no longer certain. And I think you'll start seeing this being presented at E3. Could be wrong, don't think I am.
so something like an XB1.5/PS4+ ?
 

M.D

Member
So if we go way back to the early phases of the thread, I wanted to weigh in on the AAA industry sustainability debate people were having.

To me, the current revenue is not problematic. If we look at the software for the PS4/XB1, they're generating about the same amount of revenue as the 360/PS3, and that's before we even get to digital revenue.

The actual problem is the process of making the games and how much rides on each one. We have maybe 1/3rd as many AAA games releasing per year as we used to, and they've went from taking 2-3 years to develop to 3-4 years. They're also in increasingly few genres and varieties. Consumers seem okay with the current situation judging by the rate at which they're buying consoles and the games themselves, but let's just keep forecasting this out.

What happens if next generation we have half as many AAA titles a year as we do now and they start taking 4-5 years to develop each? Are consumers still happy? Have they fully embraced some smaller titles and especially digital games? How about publishers? Is it still okay for games to fail? It's important that a game can fail and it not be a total disaster for the publisher, because quite frankly, there are always going to be titles that don't do well, if for no other reason than what was hot when you started making your game 3-4 years ago might not still be hot when it releases. If you made 30 games a year and 5 of them failed, that was fine. If you're making 3 games a year with the same number of staff and one of them fails, that's like 10 did. If two fail, that's like 20 did before. It's a significant scaling issue.

Before deleting his tweets, the head of Avalanche studios was explaining how he was spending more per month on Mad Max than the entire development budget of Just Cause 1. That game didn't exactly light the chats on fire and it took around four years to make. Maybe only 12-24 months of that was at the burn rate he was referring to, but that game probably hurt Warner's otherwise very successful year a fair bit.

Maybe we've hit a plateau and the general costs and timeframe of making games isn't going to go up by a meaningful amount anymore, but to me, while there's plenty of demand for many of these games as they come out, this is the core struggle they face.

Has there been any attempt on the part of developers to streamline the development process in some way since last gen? I'm really curious about that and if publishers/developers are looking do something about it

I know Jonathan Blow made a couple of videos, exploring the idea of a new programming language for game developers. I'm talking about something along those lines. Maybe there's advancements in other fields like Hollywood in regards to animation and modeling that could hlep reduce costs in the future? I dunno, anything in that direction really
 

jelly

Member
I think consumers are quite happy as long as the games are good, asking for a prettier Fallout 4 isn't double the budget crazy town, just a solid expectation for example. The publishers are raising the bar themselves and make it hard for others to compete, they aren't bending to the whim of graphic whores and pie in the sky expectations. One reason for less games is because the survivors made it very difficult to step up to their level and they'll try to keep it that way even if it means bigger budgets, less risk, longer development and speaking of the latter would that open up a gap for more AA games, that would be a neat turn around.

Do we know the budgets for AAA games now, not just on average or still a guess?
Is game development efficient and managed properly now?
 
Its a good assessment but I think the answer is that dev cycles will start to slowly creep back down to reality for a few reasons. The biggest being middleware scalable engines. Look at Japan the past year and the total adoption of UE4. Look at what EA is doing with Frostbite being a Universal engine across their games.

I suspect 2016 will be the first year in a long time we see packaged titles up YOY

EA's probably a good example of the transition. Adopting Frostbite and Ignite no doubt makes it easier to pool resources across studios, which I'm guessing you will see far more from the big pubs going forward (and of course some really went full throttle with this last gen). We've seen it with the BF series and a little bit with BioWare, but I'm guessing that's going to be the norm from now on.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Has there been any attempt on the part of developers to streamline the development process in some way since last gen? I'm really curious about that and if publishers/developers are looking do something about it

I know Jonathan Blow made a couple of videos, exploring the idea of a new programming language for game developers. I'm talking about something along those lines. Maybe there's advancements in other fields like Hollywood in regards to animation and modeling that could hlep reduce costs in the future? I dunno, anything in that direction really

The tools are actually awesome. After new distribution models (a la Steam/PSN/XBLA), it's the most important thing fueling the indie revolution. Almost every indie game out there runs on Unity, Unreal, or GameMaker, and it helps them make things they could have never hoped to otherwise.

However, major publishers realized that if they have an awesome toolset and still spend $60 million making a game, they could effectively force out (from AAA development) anyone who didn't have both the financial wherewithal and development toolset to compete while netting comically huge sales for themselves. And it's been super effective. Japan once ruled the roost on consoles, and now they've all been pushed out of the upper echelon.

Of course, these publishers have had to adapt to their own creation, so you saw EA, Take-Two, and Activision shut down studios en masse and Ubisoft balloon up with 7000 extra staff over the past 10 years. However, it's working, and a lot of these publishers are making way more money than they used to.

Since they know exactly what they're doing, they also hedged their bets by heavily investing in mobile, PC, and/or emerging markets to make sure they were fine in case anything went wrong.

One potential side effect of their strategy that actually helps them though is that the publishers who couldn't compete didn't necessarily go out of business, they just changed their business model, and now provide a lot of the digital offerings and the seeming resurgence of trying to offer mid-tier titles again. Rocket League and Dragon Ball XenoVerse don't exactly compete with Grand Theft Auto V, but they make a large variety of customers happy and keep them active in gaming.

The real question is if we ever fall off the balance point where what has emerged still works in terms of shifting tons of consoles. So far, as I said, things look good, but I don't blame anyone for being skeptical. We've seen a lot of games showing their seams this generation.
 
Prices for games have increased this gen, just devs / pubs were very smart about how they did it. The Season Pass / DLC becoming standard for every AAA game. Consumers are spending more per new title on consoles than at any other point.

For every person that bought Black OPs 3 and the Season Pass they spent $110 on it. Same for Battlefront. FO4 and the Season Pass came out to $90.

Sure, I just think it will go further in that direction and likely using different wording.

Arkham Knight's season pass was $40 and people gasped audibly at it. I think they're going to find a way to do it without the sticker shock.
 
Simple, more mid tier and AA games will come out and more games will be broken up like life is strange and DLC. Examples are UC4, FF7R, Hitman, and Infamous:SS I don't think next gen needs a huge power leap either, further iterations on the current architecture will suffice. Also, studios need to start having standard engines, like until dawn, killzone amid horizon using the same modified engine. Gotta spread the love....
 

Elandyll

Banned
Publishers have been getting more and more risk adverse as time goes, which leads them to become an echo chamber for the perceived tastes of the masses. Indies,
Kickstarter and Early access picked up some of the flack, but the concentration of the genras for AAA dev has been crazy. What's worse, it is being compounded by both buying tastes and critical reception of the industry.

E.g.
Full Year:

  1. Call of Duty: Black Ops III (Activision Blizzard | Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
  2. Madden NFL 16 (Electronic Arts | PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
  3. Fallout 4 (Bethesda Softworks | PS4, Xbox One, PC)
  4. Star Wars: Battlefront (Electronic Arts | Xbox One, PS4, PC)
  5. Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two | PS4, Xbox One) 360, PS3, PC)
  6. NBA 2K16 (Take-Two | PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
  7. Minecraft (Microsoft | 360, Xbox One, PS3, PS4)
  8. FIFA 16 (Electronic Arts | PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
  9. Mortal Kombat X (Warner Bros | PS4, Xbox One)
  10. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (Activision Blizzard | Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)


Goty awarded by years:
2015 Witcher3
2014 Dragon Age Inquisition
2013 The Last Of Us
2012 The Walking Dead
2011 Skyrim
2010 Red Dead Redemption
2009 Uncharted 2
2008 Fallout 3

Seeing that, the ideal game that'll maximize profit is either Sports with a big Franchise, or a TPS -FPS - Adventure game/ Rpg with semi or full open world.

And things will continue to concentrate that way as budgets continue to grow.

Hopefully the vicious cycle takes a pause, and in some ways VR might help due to inherent constraints in high end visuals. Maybe.
 
So if we go way back to the early phases of the thread, I wanted to weigh in on the AAA industry sustainability debate people were having.

... clip ...

The actual problem is the process of making the games and how much rides on each one. We have maybe 1/3rd as many AAA games releasing per year as we used to, and they've went from taking 2-3 years to develop to 3-4 years. They're also in increasingly few genres and varieties. Consumers seem okay with the current situation judging by the rate at which they're buying consoles and the games themselves, but let's just keep forecasting this out.

What happens if next generation we have half as many AAA titles a year as we do now and they start taking 4-5 years to develop each? Are consumers still happy? Have they fully embraced some smaller titles and especially digital games?

... clip ...

Maybe we've hit a plateau and the general costs and timeframe of making games isn't going to go up by a meaningful amount anymore, but to me, while there's plenty of demand for many of these games as they come out, this is the core struggle they face.

On PC side, yes, people have embraced smaller titles and digital gaming. I'm talking about gaming industry where games like Undertale can sell 900k copies:
http://steamspy.com/app/391540
The fact that Undertale is so widely adored is proof that a game does not have to have AAA graphics to succeed in gaming industry. Plus PC is almost fully digital. But this is on PC, I think the issues you are talking about are on console side.

In my opinion indie titles are heavily dependent on digital gaming. Thus before you can bring indies and smaller titles to consoles, you have to popularize digital. But the problem with embracing digital games on consoles is that consoles are closed systems. Digital works on PC because of PC openness. I can create backups of my game files that I downloaded. If Steam ever gets shut down, I can just download a crack that removes the Steam DRM from my game I downloaded and I can still play it! You can't do that on consoles.

Second, on PC, there is competition on digital market. Origin vs Steam vs Amazon vs who knows how many different websites. As a result I can get digital games cheaply. No such competition exists on consoles, because console manufacturers have everything locked down. No competition can exist on console market digital side, because only one store exists. With retail games, competition exists. Consumers get better prices and thus prefer retail over digital.

So to get smaller game sizes on consoles, console manufacturers have to first popularize digital gaming. With digital gaming's reduced barrier of entry and increased profits (no need to manufacture physical copies), smaller games become possible. But to get consumers to embrace digital gaming, the console manufacturers would have to actively and willingly create an environment that would be more beneficial to consumers and developers, than to console manufacturers.The console manufacturers would have to loosen the iron grip they have on consoles and what happens on them. They would have to stop trying to maximize their profits and think about consumers first. An example would be allowing third party stores on consoles. But I don't see that happening.
 
Prices for games have increased this gen, just devs / pubs were very smart about how they did it. The Season Pass / DLC becoming standard for every AAA game. Consumers are spending more per new title on consoles than at any other point.

For every person that bought Black OPs 3 and the Season Pass they spent $110 on it. Same for Battlefront. FO4 and the Season Pass came out to $90.

Yep this gen have players spending more and if you paid attention it's rather easy to see how they doing it .
Also like i said before the mid tier is coming back and it's indies .
If you look at this gen we are getting more and more of them i expect it to grow even more in the future .
As for AAA games i think we going to get around the same amount in the upcoming years .
But some also going to evolve into the service model for eg car games like DC .

Side note thread went crazy for a short while lol .
 
Hopefully the vicious cycle takes a pause, and in some ways VR might help due to ineherent constraints in high end visuals. Maybe.
Good point. VR will not just be the omg machine for realistic gaming experiences, but even more a creative playground where fresh ideas might get a chance and give us something that could look like poo but feel like next gen.
Keep talking and nobody explodes is a good example. I know it's out on steam, but first I saw this as an occulus thing and thought "now this is clever".
 

CariusD

Member
Has there been any attempt on the part of developers to streamline the development process in some way since last gen? I'm really curious about that and if publishers/developers are looking do something about it

I know Jonathan Blow made a couple of videos, exploring the idea of a new programming language for game developers. I'm talking about something along those lines. Maybe there's advancements in other fields like Hollywood in regards to animation and modeling that could hlep reduce costs in the future? I dunno, anything in that direction really

There has always been tons of tools development, the bigger problem is that the demand for things like content growth towards open worlds has constantly exceeded the allocated resources. Personally I hope developers don't continue towards a push for title of largest world and move towards IQ consistency based goals.
 
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