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NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]

S

Saty

Member
Overall industry numbers are of secondary importance to me. They aren't as good an indicative for a 'healthy' industry as i see it. Like, how much of sales or revenue going up is associated with NBA 2K or FIFA selling better each and every every year or Madden seemingly being on the rise once again? People go 'hooray' with AC Syndicate under-performing thinking it might spur Ubi to change stuff up but they don't ask where the consumer money spent on Unity went this year.

Debates over whether Call of Duty is declining again or stabilizing or rising when the difference all said and done 1M-2M copies at best, which digital might as well cover and then some, especially if you start looking at revenue rather than units.
The only reason Battlefront's success was put into question is that we had the rare public comments by EA about how many units they were forecasting. If we didn't have that and that game would have sold 75% of what it did, nobody would have read into it too much.

The question is whether the situation of 'the rich get richer' is still continuing and if its tougher for everything else to make dent. Sure, if next CoD sells 60% of the current that can't be good or healthy but neither is if the increase in industry revenue is thanks to Season Passes for the already-big games or thanks to card packs in sport titles.

Which is why it's crucial we have better data on the download-only PS4\XB1 games. The little glimpses we got with Transistor PS4 sales or N++ weren't too encouraging. Dear Esther did 50k on the first week and 100K after ~3 months. How's Rapture fairing?

Cosmic, could you perhaps add up the overall sales\revenue numbers for New IP PS4\XB1 Retail releases at the end of 2015 compared to the same period for 360\PS3 titles?
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
AniHawk said:
i'm trying to think of the influential things that are blowing up in the industry and how often does it happen on dedicated hardware anymore? maybe just monster hunter in japan, but it's been a while since clones of that started coming.

toby fox asked for $5,000 to make undertale, got $50,000, and has so far earned over $6,000,000 from steam. it's also a game that actually uses the pc as a means to tell its story, something i've only seen in one or two games before this. i'm sure now there are publishers who would love to have this on console, but the game wouldn't really be the same on console. nor would it have been greenlit in the first place. stuff like brothers, journey, and shovel knight can only get a retail release after being a hit on digital platforms. shouldn't this be a hint that there's value in taking a step back, maybe devoting the resources to one of the three games that's eating up a $40 million budget, and making ten smaller ones instead? are publishers hopelessly locked in chasing this needy demographic?
Click to expand...

This approach works great for smaller publishers, but it doesn't really make sense for the needle-moving-focus of the multinationals. It's true that making 10 smaller games that each need to sell 200,000 to be profitable could result in a positive return on invested capital, but if you're EA, your fixed costs and your capital and opportunity costs are so high that you have to aim for the blockbuster every time or it just isn't worth it. EA can't afford to stay the size it is and make small games. They'd have to dramatically restructure. This is realistically something that Nintendo just went through (rising costs, falling productivity, falling revenues and EBITDA) and they too opted to stay the size they were. Nintendo's obviously not in the same spot EA is, but it's a similar idea.

I wanted to respond to some other comment I read earlier in the thread. I think someone said Fallout 4 is the ugliest AAA game this year that has sold the best, so maybe people aren't worried so much about graphics so we should make cheaper games. It's true that Fallout is ugly, but I can't imagine this game is cheap to make. It was in development for a really long time, and I have to imagine these large open world games are very costly to develop.

AAA fever has basically killed off a style of games that I loved (8-10 hour games with no multiplayer) because publishers are chasing a no-used-game dragon. I totally think single player games have suffered because of bloat the last 5 years.
 
R

Raist

Banned
Y2Kev said:
AAA fever has basically killed off a style of games that I loved (8-10 hour games with no multiplayer) because publishers are chasing a no-used-game dragon. I totally think single player games have suffered because of bloat the last 5 years.
Click to expand...

To be honest, it's also because a lot of people (including the press) make some noise when a game doesn't have MP.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Y2Kev said:
AAA fever has basically killed off a style of games that I loved (8-10 hour games with no multiplayer) because publishers are chasing a no-used-game dragon. I totally think single player games have suffered because of bloat the last 5 years.
Click to expand...

Those games still exist with the cavaet that you are not getting AAA graphics (or a physical release). Honestly, now that we are seeing indies increasingly moving away from cheaply made "retro" 2d, I am ok with digital tites taking over the mid-range lineup from past generaltions. Some of them are starting to look pretty good visually, even if they arent going to have the detail of Uncharted 4
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Tivor Tontomo said:
Seems odd guys think 9o to 1oo million ps4s are on lock when theres nothing other than price alone that can extend the ps4s life and boost sales high enough for that to happen.

2o million for the next 3 years wouldnt put it at 9o. And that 2o million for the next 3 years, or more, is unlikely because outside price, the ps4 does not have what the Xbox 36o or the ps2 had. We can pretend it will just keep going at the same rate, but that doesnt really add up.

Also the Xbox One has a chance U.S. wise to win even in the first 6 months of the year.

The Xbox One is going into 2o16 in a better position than it was going into 2o15. the main reason why some are doubting is the Holiday sales.

Well lets be realistic, with gift cards and exclusive deals, MS had like what 5 bundles, 3 were big games, deals and the release of Halo, aggressive AC Unity, COD, reshipments of SO white bundle, there was another bundle as well, the 3rd party hype was bigger, and it was the holiday were a lot were finally moving to the new consoles. Excevt Wii U.

This year Gears took AC place, and Halo 5 took Halo MCC, that was literally it. The Multiplats this years were also shaky in relation to last but still provided good sales, deals on both sides for the two months were lower than last year as well.

I mean outside those two games, the Xbox one barely had a 3rd of what gave it the win last year, not even half, and it still was relatively close with record breaking sales that were higher.

This year the Xbox One has a subjective review and preview wise, higher assortment of anticipated games starting in the first half of the year, going into the holidays. Along with another possible price drop, an arguably, depending on the final release dates, a better exclusive and Tp line up, then this holiday as well.

The line up this year outside Halo and Gears, which just took the place of Halo MCC and ACU partially was garbage on both sides, the Tp was shaky, and a lot of it went to Fall out, COD, and SW and not much else. SW being the one to invest in, and Sony getting that deal likely made up partially for their lack luster line up of exclusives. A very good deal.


Anyway the Wii Us Dead. It seems they arent really going to push it into the NX launch, which could cause issues with the NX launch, which according to a thread, is rumored to launch this year.
Click to expand...
Sorry but Xbone has no chance to win over PS4 in US anymore.
Nothing will change that in this generation.
You are being a bit delusional if you believe that.

And your post in every thread looks the same with false claims.

I guess it is time to enter in the acceptance phase ;)
 
N

Newtype-001

Member
Dinjooh said:
402Rh5L.jpg


Sadly the wife didn't agree on my proposition to hang it in the living room, oh well.
Click to expand...

My new home screen.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Saty said:
Cosmic, could you perhaps add up the overall sales\revenue numbers for New IP PS4\XB1 Retail releases at the end of 2015 compared to the same period for 360\PS3 titles?
Click to expand...

Like your post, especially the bit about Syndicate. I get the point you're trying to make.

But your ask is a bit more difficult than itd seem.

How do you define "new IP"?

Is COD2 on the X360 new IP because it was the first appearance of COD on console? Is Bloodborne new IP or is it part of the Souls IP? Is something like LEGO Jurassic World new IP? What about something like rare replay?

Something like Destiny, pretty clearly new IP. But lots of gray area...
 
D

darkinstinct

...lacks reading comprehension.
ethomaz said:
Sorry but Xbone has no chance to win over PS4 in US anymore.
Nothing will change that in this generation.
You are being a bit delusional if you believe that.

And your post in every thread looks the same with false claims.

I guess it is time to enter in the acceptance phase ;)
Click to expand...

Of course it has a chance. They only have to make the price $100 cheaper than PS4. Will it happen? Probably not, but there is always a chance.
 
Coulomb_Barrier

Coulomb_Barrier

Member
darkinstinct said:
Of course it has a chance. They only have to make the price $100 cheaper than PS4. Will it happen? Probably not, but there is always a chance.
Click to expand...

Yeah there's also a chance the Wii U could outsell the PS4 if they slash the price to $100 and they pump in $500m in marketing over the next 3 years. Is it going to happen? No. So there you go.
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
TheUnsunghero26 said:
DKC deserved to be top of the chart.
Click to expand...
No it didn't. It's a shallow game, and lots of people say that today. Most are willing to acknowledge Sonic 3/S&K, for instance, is the better platformer out of the two and visually holds up much better today.

The only reason DK Country did well was b/c of the graphics. The series didn't become legit until the sequel, that's kind of a known thing.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
darkinstinct said:
Of course it has a chance. They only have to make the price $100 cheaper than PS4. Will it happen? Probably not, but there is always a chance.
Click to expand...

The gap between the PS4 and the Xbox One is the smallest gap there has been for a first place console and second place console in North America since the PlayStation brand has existed. The second smallest was PS1 vs. N64 which was already over two million at the same point (third year of its gen).

So yeah, there's a chance (better chance than previous second place consoles in North America) but I doubt it will happen unless the system gets something exclusively that becomes the new craze; The window is greatly closing as this gen moves on and the Holiday season sales greatly added on to that.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
If you want to know numbers, read the thread, be part of the conversation, actively engage.

If you just want a one stop shop like this thread is a service and you're a customer and shouldn't this thread serve your needs personally for your convenience and without requiring any energy or engagement from you... Well then I sincerely hope you remain disappointed, personally.

If NPD or anyone in the thread wanted to make aggregated public statements summarizing a bunch of data points, they would do so, publicly, via Twitter or a blog post or whatever the kids use these days.

My take on the matter.
 
S

Saty

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Like your post, especially the bit about Syndicate. I get the point you're trying to make.

But your ask is a bit more difficult than itd seem.

How do you define "new IP"?

Is COD2 on the X360 new IP because it was the first appearance of COD on console? Is Bloodborne new IP or is it part of the Souls IP? Is something like LEGO Jurassic World new IP? What about something like rare replay?

Something like Destiny, pretty clearly new IP. But lots of gray area...
Click to expand...

Go with the strict notion of 'new IP'. COD 2 isn't. Bloodborne is (it's only some of the fans who like to see part of the series but all official comments view it as separate). I wouldn't include licensed IP like LEGO games or SW Battlefront or you could do additional comparison that include\exclude those titles.

I would agree there would be some edge cases but if you're debating a certain game then share the dilemma with us. For example, i can see the argument for something like PvZ: Garden Warfare being considered a 'New IP'.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
CosmicQueso said:
If you want to know numbers, read the thread, be part of the conversation, actively engage.

If you just want a one stop shop like this thread is a service and you're a customer and shouldn't this thread serve your needs personally for your convenience and without requiring any energy or engagement from you... Well then I sincerely hope you remain disappointed, personally.

If NPD or anyone in the thread wanted to make aggregated public statements summarizing a bunch of data points, they would do so, publicly, via Twitter or a blog post or whatever the kids use these days.

My take on the matter.
Click to expand...

Couldn't have said it better Cosmic. SalesGAF NPD threads arent just some press release of info. Its some in depth analysis, discussion and if people just read through you'll learn a lot more about this industry than just a couple data points. Luckily enough for us there are members of our community who want to share ibfo with us but this isn't just some place to come for PR talk. Anyone who wants that its in the OP
 
J

Jarod McChicken

Member
CosmicQueso said:
If you want to know numbers, read the thread, be part of the conversation, actively engage.

If you just want a one stop shop like this thread is a service and you're a customer and shouldn't this thread serve your needs personally for your convenience and without requiring any energy or engagement from you... Well then I sincerely hope you remain disappointed, personally.

If NPD or anyone in the thread wanted to make aggregated public statements summarizing a bunch of data points, they would do so, publicly, via Twitter or a blog post or whatever the kids use these days.

My take on the matter.
Click to expand...

I agree with what you say here, but I would point out that it's a little disappointing (and unbalanced) we had a ton of LTD data for Wii U/3DS games, and nothing for PS4/Xbox One. Except the big three (Black Ops, Star Wars, Fallout) that was provided in detail by Overlord Mulcair.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jarod McChicken said:
I agree with what you say here, but I would point out that it's a little disappointing (and unbalanced) we had a ton of LTD data for Wii U/3DS games, and nothing for PS4/Xbox One. Except the big three (Black Ops, Star Wars, Fallout) that was provided in detail by Overlord Mulcair.
Click to expand...

What are you talking about, we know Halo sold 17 million digitally. :p
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Jarod McChicken said:
I agree with what you say here, but I would point out that it's a little disappointing (and unbalanced) we had a ton of LTD data for Wii U/3DS games, and nothing for PS4/Xbox One. Except the big three (Black Ops, Star Wars, Fallout) that was provided in detail by Overlord Mulcair.
Click to expand...
Grass is not growing faster when you pull it.
 
K

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
RED_RING said:
Huum, 99% or 90% digital sales?
Click to expand...

I believe that Halo is one of the few titles to have sold more than 100% digital. I believe it sold 170% digital.

It would be interesting to have Steamspyesque insight into PSN and XBL
 
P

PanicFreak

Member
AniHawk said:
i'm trying to think of the influential things that are blowing up in the industry and how often does it happen on dedicated hardware anymore? maybe just monster hunter in japan, but it's been a while since clones of that started coming.

toby fox asked for $5,000 to make undertale, got $50,000, and has so far earned over $6,000,000 from steam. it's also a game that actually uses the pc as a means to tell its story, something i've only seen in one or two games before this. i'm sure now there are publishers who would love to have this on console, but the game wouldn't really be the same on console. nor would it have been greenlit in the first place. stuff like brothers, journey, and shovel knight can only get a retail release after being a hit on digital platforms. shouldn't this be a hint that there's value in taking a step back, maybe devoting the resources to one of the three games that's eating up a $40 million budget, and making ten smaller ones instead? are publishers hopelessly locked in chasing this needy demographic?
Click to expand...

Undertale is extremely profitable but for a company like EA, $6,000,000 only amounts to 0.13% of total revenue. To get growth that matters for a company like EA or Activision, you need a game that generates nine digits (eg $300 million). It just isn't worth it for them to make a game like Undertale.
 
T

Tivor Tontomo

Member
ethomaz said:
Sorry but Xbone has no chance to win over PS4 in US anymore.
Nothing will change that in this generation.
You are being a bit delusional if you believe that.

And your post in every thread looks the same with false claims.

I guess it is time to enter in the acceptance phase ;)
Click to expand...

First of all your wrong.

But Show me where I said the Xbox One would win over the ps4 in the U.S., and Ill literally give you $555 but you cant because I never said that anywhere.

The guy who i was quoting said will the Xbox One win a month this year, and I said there was a chance for them to win the first 6 months of the year.

and your post in every thread looks to be just as full of shit with bad reading comprehension as now.

BTW, i guess that thread where I ASKED guys opinion if Crysis 1 was good, was a... false..clai, what wow your nuts.
 
V

Vena

Member
Nyoro SF said:
Indeed, I was hoping to see the more direct numbers for the console JRPG market to validate other data that is currently available...
Click to expand...

The only number we sort of have is Disgaea 5 from the Famitsu Top 100 thread where we came to the conclusion that it was ~70k (total, retail (tracked ~26k NPD opening month and untracked NIS store/digital) + digital) and it was the best charter out of the lot. So everything else is below that bar at least digitally unless things have changed. And while the D5 estimates are just that, estimates, they check out against cross checking with Japan.

No concrete numbers have otherwise been provided outside of SteamSpy.
 
T

Tivor Tontomo

Member
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
Damn DK Country. Such a shallow, overrated game topping the charts. Kind of sad, but a sign of things to come.
Click to expand...

Well i mean it was a semi 3D game, that was the only that was out at the time of ITS generation of consoles, along with a cheap SNES, and the hype for the 3D consoles that were already out and coming out.

DKC was always going to chart the top even if it was complete garbage and scored a 2 out of ten.


What baffles me is DK64. Not only it being above by a large margin and outselling the NEW GT2, but at the time, selling more than half the Crash 3 LTD at the time if Im reading the chart right.

*On a side note, wow Spyro was nowhere near Crash. i thought Spyro 2 was when the series was exploding. Apparently not, at least relatively.
 
T

Tivor Tontomo

Member
I am now curious, do We have Spyro and Crash Bandicoot numbers, as much as possible, up to Skylanders.

Im curious because looking at the chart of the last 4 generations in this thread, it seems to me Spyro was actually never really that popular but Ill need to see some sales and,or LTDS to be sure.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Jarod McChicken said:
I agree with what you say here, but I would point out that it's a little disappointing (and unbalanced) we had a ton of LTD data for Wii U/3DS games, and nothing for PS4/Xbox One. Except the big three (Black Ops, Star Wars, Fallout) that was provided in detail by Overlord Mulcair.
Click to expand...

This isn't Fox News (lol). Nothing has to be fair or balanced about it.

I know you want Bloodborne LTD spelled out. Don't you think that's a bit high profile of a title that would come with a lot of attention and scrutiny that would extend well beyond GAF? Can you see why that would make a pie like that hard to bake? If a user wishes to take that on that's great, but something like that? Wii U LTDs of niche games is one thing. No one cares about those numbers but posting members here who have shown a strong interest for months or years. Last month, a Google search of member names that were discussing ROTTR were getting way too much of all the wrong kind of attention outside of GAF. Imagine if someone spelled out BB sales? If a user wants to post that, good for them. But I hope you can understand why that might not be a super appealing idea?
 
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