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[Loris146]

Sadly the wife didn't agree on my proposition to hang it in the living room, oh well.

This is why i love neogaf

 

[slavesnyder]

On PC side, yes, people have embraced smaller titles and digital gaming. I'm talking about gaming industry where games like Undertale can sell 900k copies:
http://steamspy.com/app/391540
The fact that Undertale is so widely adored is proof that a game does not have to have AAA graphics to succeed in gaming industry. Plus PC is almost fully digital. But this is on PC, I think the issues you are talking about are on console side.

In my opinion indie titles are heavily dependent on digital gaming. Thus before you can bring indies and smaller titles to consoles, you have to popularize digital.

Problem is that at the end of the day, developers have to earn money, even indies, even digital. Share is higher than in retail by far, chance to get visibility is there, but the competition is maddening.
Congrats to undertale, I am very happy, but there are dozens of games coming out on steam each day, all fighting for visibility on a rather small storefront. Even small games cost up to 100.000$ Easily . And selling 10.000 copies on steam to break even (numbers from my ass, but you get the idea) sounds easy at first, but there are legions of games (and for that developers) not making it. We are in a phase where gamemaking is becoming easier and you have all the possibilities, but actually selling them is still hard.

 

[Welfare]

Could we get a 360, PS3, and Wii YTD 2015 update? The only numbers we got were January, November, and December (with Wii missing here).

 

[GobFather]

I want to frame this and put it on a wall.

Sadly the wife didn't agree on my proposition to hang it in the living room, oh well.

You made it happen and it's awesome

 

[AmaterasuOni]

Nooooo! What happened to Tivor and his crazy magic spells of ooooooooo? Please, come back.

 

[Square2015]

Historical Data
Previous four generations:

Last Month: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189366884&postcount=5779

 

[allan-bh]

Historical Data

Wow, Donkey kong destroying in 94 and 99. Gran Turismo 2 debut was not that great considering the big success of the first game.

Can you add HW ?

 

[Vena]

Sure, I just think it will go further in that direction and likely using different wording.

Arkham Knight's season pass was $40 and people gasped audibly at it. I think they're going to find a way to do it without the sticker shock.

The content was also questionable on that pass. I wonder, given the broken up two-pay model currently running, if there isn't also the risk of the audiences shunning large passes and such if a negative perception permeates around them.

Still though, I agree with Nirolak's assessment. We've seen seams on some of these large projects as well as some notable underperformers with (correct me if I am wrong) MGSV and MadMax, very large budgeted games that adversely affected their publishers (for Warner, at least, they had a good year around the fact and could swallow the MadMax performance*).

*Pending my not being misinformed on the performance of MadMax.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Historical Data
Previous four generations:

Last Month: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189366884&postcount=5779

Damn DK Country. Such a shallow, overrated game topping the charts. Kind of sad, but a sign of things to come.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Historical Data

December 2009. The month when Nintendo sold over 7 million of console, and when a exclusive game like Mario, outsold all version combined of a multiplatfrom game like Call of Duty.


This was an epochal month in the US.

 

[xir]

Historical Data
Previous four generations:

wow 2009 was that long ago. i feel old.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Nooooo! What happened to Tivor and his crazy magic spells of ooooooooo? Please, come back.

He ran out of PRixie dust.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

I genuinely, honestly believe the industry cannot survive another ramp up of production budgets from here. They are at their max as-is. I hope consumers will eternally be okay with that plateau and the limitations that come with it...

...otherwise, the mainstream industry will die.

I really don't want to see the day where this glorious industry withers away because consumers insist upon games with even more hyperrealism that only increasingly-inflated budgets can provide.

Naturally, graphics will incrementally improve over time as tech matures and asset production becomes more efficient. But aside from baseline improvements I genuinely do fear for the future of expectations. I haven't thought this in 30 years of being invested in the video game industry, but I do feel as if it's finally rearing its ugly head to haunt us.

I know I will forever be content with niche Japanese developers who produce on a small budget with tech eternally frozen at the PS3 level. I will always champion the indies where everyone is dedicated to turning back the clock to small, dedicated teams and tiny development budgets like back in the old days.

I just hope enough people think like me to keep this industry alive and thriving.

Oh, I think it's surviving quite well via diversification, but the acceptance of every generation not blowing our doors off like Super Mario World, Toshinden 1, Sonic Generations 1, etc did us way back when has been slower to take. Well, at least when it's phrased as such; when that isn't framed like that, that diversity is being rewarded quite well over last generation.

 

[QaaQer]

Maybe people are overestimating how many games console owners need to have in order to be happy with their purchase. Numbers from Nintendo showed that the lifetime tie ratios ranged from a low of 4.22 for the gameboy to a high of 9.59 for the GameCube. The majority of console owners buy less than ten games per console, much less.

So the question is, how many AAA are needed each year to keep these players happy? Given the narrow taste in games that yearly top tens show--open world tps-RPG, fps, sports--I don't think there needs to be more than 5-10 per year. Moreover, I don't think there is room for more. The only problem is the concentration of games in oct-nov.

 

[hodayathink]

Maybe its time people make making games easier. Just look at how easy Dreams looks creating things.

That's what UE4 and Unity and the like are supposed to be all about.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Isn't the graphics problem caused by lack of new and improved game engines? Aren't games still using Unreal 3 even thoughts it over a decade old?

 

[igordennis]

Isn't the graphics problem caused by lack of new and improved game engines? Aren't games still using Unreal 3 even thoughts it over a decade old?

Uhhh no? Arkham knight i think was the last big game using UE3 and that barely counts due to how modified the engine was. UE4 adoption is real, especially so in Japan.

 

[Doctor_Thomas]

That's what UE4 and Unity and the like are supposed to be all about.

For the average person, they're not really "easy" though. I've had a look at Unity and, yes, if I wanted to, I could probably pick it up with little issue but there's still a learning curve there and not everyone who wants to be creative has the patience for programming on an engine like Unity.

 

[RexNovis]

I genuinely, honestly believe the industry cannot survive another ramp up of production budgets from here. They are at their max as-is. I hope consumers will eternally be okay with that plateau and the limitations that come with it...

...otherwise, the mainstream industry will die.

I really don't want to see the day where this glorious industry withers away because consumers insist upon games with even more hyperrealism that only increasingly-inflated budgets can provide.

Naturally, graphics will incrementally improve over time as tech matures and asset production becomes more efficient. But aside from baseline improvements I genuinely do fear for the future of expectations. I haven't thought this in 30 years of being invested in the video game industry, but I do feel as if it's finally rearing its ugly head to haunt us.

I know I will forever be content with niche Japanese developers who produce on a small budget with tech eternally frozen at the PS3 level. I will always champion the indies where everyone is dedicated to turning back the clock to small, dedicated teams and tiny development budgets like back in the old days.

I just hope enough people think like me to keep this industry alive and thriving.

A man after my own heart. I agree with everything you've said here. My hope is that simple, surreal and beautiful art direction will take the place of hyper realism in gaming. I think the indie space has repeatedly proven how appealing slick art styles can be. Look at something like Hyper Light Drifter, Transistor, Journey or even smaller dev cost AA games like Bloodborne and Street Fighter V. I think the appeal of hyper realism is on its way out thanks to diminishing returns. Or at least that's my hope.

I dont think high end tech is really much of an issue. The average consumer doesn't really care, they just want games they like.

FO4 is probably the ugliest of the major AAA releases in 2015, didn't massively evolve the gameplay formula, and by AAA standards was made by a smaller sized team. Its sold through more than 8.5 million copies in 2 months. We shouldn't be afraid of consumers demanding better tech, we should be afraid of publisher confidence and lack of risk taking. Its the most dangerous factor in the current climate imo.

This is also an excellent point. I think the demand is more and more falling into providing compelling gameplay systems than it is in providing the most realistic graphical tech. That said, people do still seem to enjoy graphically impressive games. Time will tell.

 

[Japanmanx3]

Sadly the wife didn't agree on my proposition to hang it in the living room, oh well.

 

[Nightengale]

That's what UE4 and Unity and the like are supposed to be all about.

Stuff like UE4 and Unity has allowed the creation of games to be "easier", but I don't think they've made AAA game development "faster" and "cheaper." when all is said and done.

Not because of the tools but because of escalation of what it means to be AAA.

Let's say newer tech tools allows 3D character models to be made faster, but current gen means that now the 3D models are all higher fidelity, has more physics in them, has more lighting consideration, etc, which ultimately adds up and makes them more expensive and longer by the end of the day.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Maybe people are overestimating how many games console owners need to have in order to be happy with their purchase. Numbers from Nintendo showed that the lifetime tie ratios ranged from a low of 4.22 for the gameboy to a high of 9.59 for the GameCube. The majority of console owners buy less than ten games per console, much less.

So the question is, how many AAA are needed each year to keep these players happy? Given the narrow taste in games that yearly top tens show--open world tps-RPG, fps, sports--I don't think there needs to be more than 5-10 per year. Moreover, I don't think there is room for more. The only problem is the concentration of games in oct-nov.

This also a good point .
Also i think more and more games focusing on MP going to effect spending habits .
There is only so much time people have to play games and more and more games trying to lock you in like MMO do.
So now you have people playing the same games for longer periods of time.
Of course after a while if everything goes that way some going to get left behind .

 

[hodayathink]

Stuff like UE4 and Unity has allowed the creation of games to be "easier", but I don't think they've made AAA game development "faster" and "cheaper." when all is said and done.

Not because of the tools but because of escalation of what it means to be AAA.

Let's say newer tech tools allows 3D character models to be made faster, but current gen means that now the 3D models are all higher fidelity, has more physics in them, has more lighting consideration, etc, which ultimately adds up and makes them more expensive and longer by the end of the day.

To be fair, the quote I posted never said faster or cheaper. It said easier. And I could argue that it's easier to make a game now than it has ever been. It's much, much harder (more expensive and time consuming) to make a AAA game, though, and it's arguably harder to make a game that stands out from the crowd (especially in terms of indies and/or mobile), but the act of making a game is getting easier.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

Sadly the wife didn't agree on my proposition to hang it in the living room, oh well.

NPD_Mulciair, we love you.

 

[Narpas Sword0]

Historical Data
Previous four generations:

Last Month: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189366884&postcount=5779

This is really cool

Surprised at no Dreamcast game charting in 1999. And at Frogger beating Crash lol

 

[Cornbread78]

Just in case Harkin or Cream happen to have these? Anyone? Pretty please? PM me if it can't be posted

First of all, thank you for doing this.

Second, a small request for LTD number on some of the 3rd party jrpgs such as:

- Disgaea 5
- Tales of Zestiria
- Dragon Quest Hereos
- Omega Quintet
- Trails of Cold Steel


Pretty please?

 

[joecanada]

This is really cool

Surprised at no Dreamcast game charting in 1999. And at Frogger beating Crash lol

Holy shit at those lists I've owned systems in all those eras and haven't played even 30% of those. I mean I probably played Wii sports at some party but DragonBall, Spiro,dkc, need for speed, rock band Beatles? Some of these I'd never expected to see way up there
Edit - also some of those movie ones lol most are terrible like Shrek or something but maybe lion king was good

 

[Obliterator]

I know its already been discussed but I'm so happy at Siege launch. I'm loving this game

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Can someone give me a straight answer?

Why is the OP never updated with info from this thread? Even a "rumour" section or something.

 

[Welfare]

Can someone give me a straight answer?

Why is the OP never updated with info from this thread? Even a "rumour" section or something.

Because the numbers we get are unofficial leaks.

Until we go back to how it was pre 2011 and get numbers directly from NPD themselves, none of the stuff that cream/other leakers post will go in the OP.

 

[Obliterator]

Can someone give me a straight answer?

Why is the OP never updated with info from this thread? Even a "rumour" section or something.

Like Welfare said, anything posted here can't be considered "official" and also will bring unwanted attention from other places onto our info sources. If you can't find what you are looking for in the thread just ask for a PM.

 

[fastmower]

Does anybody know The Order or Bloodborne LTDs???

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Because the numbers we get are unofficial leaks.

Until we go back to how it was pre 2011 and get numbers directly from NPD themselves, none of the stuff that cream/other leakers post will go in the OP.

Not even a spoilered unofficial section?

Like Welfare said, anything posted here can't be considered "official" and also will bring unwanted attention from other places onto our info sources. If you can't find what you are looking for in the thread just ask for a PM.

I would like to see everything and that everything is splintered into 3000 posts.

 

[Steverulez]

Not even a spoilered unofficial section?

I would like to see everything and that everything is splintered into 3000 posts.

There are some rather obvious ways to cut down the time it would take to find the relevant posts... although I'm not sure you can really expect people to collate all the info for you either. Its obviously done for a reason

 

[Welfare]

Not even a spoilered unofficial section?



I would like to see everything and that everything is splintered into 3000 posts.

Spoilers can be unspoiled by non members.

If you want to see everything, there are notable posters that you should look out for, and if you don't know them, just start at the end of the thread right now and go backwards. The first few hours of the thread won't have anything to discuss except for official info.

There is an email tag we could use to hide info from non members, but that method was frowned upon, so we don't do that.

 

[soundscream]

2015 was the year that SW revenues experienced the smallest YoY decline since 2008.

I completely agree that packaged sales will be up this year, to tune tune of around 3-4% in consumer spend.

I believe in the rumors about half-step console iterations, and to the idea that somehow MS is going to merge Win10 and the Xbox platform together because of the ideas that Muclair just touched on.

I think the days of firm console gen leaps are no longer certain. And I think you'll start seeing this being presented at E3. Could be wrong, don't think I am.

I want the Xbox to be basically a larger version of the alienware alpha ( so you can swap out the gpu). As a result you could then sell Xbox games to the PC market, while still having a base standard that the console only crowd can latch onto.

 

[Welfare]

Some Xbox or PS (or both) LTD's for software would be cool about now. Thread's a bit slower than usual, it seems.

 

[Boombloxer]

A man after my own heart. I agree with everything you've said here. My hope is that simple, surreal and beautiful art direction will take the place of hyper realism in gaming. I think the indie space has repeatedly proven how appealing slick art styles can be. Look at something like Hyper Light Drifter, Transistor, Journey or even smaller dev cost AA games like Bloodborne and Street Fighter V. I think the appeal of hyper realism is on its way out thanks to diminishing returns. Or at least that's my hope.

Look at the charts for the past 3 years. Hyper-realism isn't going anywhere because there are millions upon millions that enjoy the games. All of the titles you mentioned are dwarfed by just one. That doesn't mean more unique art styles can't sell, but it's hard to argue diminishing returns overall.

This is also an excellent point. I think the demand is more and more falling into providing compelling gameplay systems than it is in providing the most realistic graphical tech. That said, people do still seem to enjoy graphically impressive games. Time will tell.

The demand is there for both, and should be. The two doing well don't cannibalize sales. You can have Journeys and RE5, GTA, Cod, TWD and Hyper Light Drifter all in the market at the same time.

 

[Square2015]

Wow, Donkey kong destroying in 94 and 99. Gran Turismo 2 debut was not that great considering the big success of the first game.

Can you add HW ?

Gran Turismo 2 was released just a week before Christmas [DEC 18th?], it actually did very well for the time. Sony released a PR citing GT2 was their fastest selling title ever during its debut week (tho no numbers were given).

HW is on its way, I have a graph this time

December 2009. The month when Nintendo sold over 7 million of console, and when a exclusive game like Mario, outsold all version combined of a multiplatfrom game like Call of Duty.


This was an epochal month in the US.

Yep Nintendo's biggest month ever. DEC 2009 may have also been the biggest month for gaming ever.

This is really cool

Surprised at no Dreamcast game charting in 1999. And at Frogger beating Crash lol

December is a tough month to crack especially if your userbase is low (or new) compared to the competition.

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

I know its already been discussed but I'm so happy at Siege launch. I'm loving this game

Me too, and I'm impressed since it launched with next to no hype at all.

 

[kinoki]

Publishers have been getting more and more risk adverse as time goes, which leads them to become an echo chamber for the perceived tastes of the masses. Indies,
Kickstarter and Early access picked up some of the flack, but the concentration of the genras for AAA dev has been crazy. What's worse, it is being compounded by both buying tastes and critical reception of the industry.

E.g.
Full Year:

1. Call of Duty: Black Ops III (Activision Blizzard | Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
2. Madden NFL 16 (Electronic Arts | PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
3. Fallout 4 (Bethesda Softworks | PS4, Xbox One, PC)
4. Star Wars: Battlefront (Electronic Arts | Xbox One, PS4, PC)
5. Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two | PS4, Xbox One) 360, PS3, PC)
6. NBA 2K16 (Take-Two | PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
7. Minecraft (Microsoft | 360, Xbox One, PS3, PS4)
8. FIFA 16 (Electronic Arts | PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
9. Mortal Kombat X (Warner Bros | PS4, Xbox One)
10. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (Activision Blizzard | Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)

Goty awarded by years:
2015 Witcher3
2014 Dragon Age Inquisition
2013 The Last Of Us
2012 The Walking Dead
2011 Skyrim
2010 Red Dead Redemption
2009 Uncharted 2
2008 Fallout 3

Seeing that, the ideal game that'll maximize profit is either Sports with a big Franchise, or a TPS -FPS - Adventure game/ Rpg with semi or full open world.

And things will continue to concentrate that way as budgets continue to grow.

Hopefully the vicious cycle takes a pause, and in some ways VR might help due to inherent constraints in high end visuals. Maybe.

I don't think it's that at all. The casual gamer really want two types of games: solitary and poker. One to keep themselves busy for hours and the other to play with friends. It's we gamers who are the problems. We want more nuanced games with more rules that differ from what people in general want. We're too few to support this industry that keeps on bloating in cost.

 

[patapuf]

I don't think it's that at all. The casual gamer really want two types of games: solitary and poker. One to keep themselves busy for hours and the other to play with friends. It's we gamers who are the problems. We want more nuanced games with more rules that differ from what people in general want. We're too few to support this industry that keeps on bloating in cost.

There has been a literal explosion of games coming out. Good ones too.

The "hardcore" gamers are sufficient in numbers to support the games they want. However the games they want will only rarely be those with the highest production values anymore, and they may not be on top of a sales chart.

But really, is that a problem? It's that way in literally all of entertainment. Hell if we compare games with other entertainment the enthusiasts are still heavily catered to by the big companies.

 

[DieH@rd]

nvm

 

[DISSESHOWEDO]

I genuinely, honestly believe the industry cannot survive another ramp up of production budgets from here. They are at their max as-is. I hope consumers will eternally be okay with that plateau and the limitations that come with it...

...otherwise, the mainstream industry will die.

I really don't want to see the day where this glorious industry withers away because consumers insist upon games with even more hyperrealism that only increasingly-inflated budgets can provide.

Naturally, graphics will incrementally improve over time as tech matures and asset production becomes more efficient. But aside from baseline improvements I genuinely do fear for the future of expectations. I haven't thought this in 30 years of being invested in the video game industry, but I do feel as if it's finally rearing its ugly head to haunt us.

I know I will forever be content with niche Japanese developers who produce on a small budget with tech eternally frozen at the PS3 level. I will always champion the indies where everyone is dedicated to turning back the clock to small, dedicated teams and tiny development budgets like back in the old days.

I just hope enough people think like me to keep this industry alive and thriving.

I'm a tough dude but i shead a tear reading this!

 

[AniHawk]

i'm trying to think of the influential things that are blowing up in the industry and how often does it happen on dedicated hardware anymore? maybe just monster hunter in japan, but it's been a while since clones of that started coming.

toby fox asked for $5,000 to make undertale, got $50,000, and has so far earned over $6,000,000 from steam. it's also a game that actually uses the pc as a means to tell its story, something i've only seen in one or two games before this. i'm sure now there are publishers who would love to have this on console, but the game wouldn't really be the same on console. nor would it have been greenlit in the first place. stuff like brothers, journey, and shovel knight can only get a retail release after being a hit on digital platforms. shouldn't this be a hint that there's value in taking a step back, maybe devoting the resources to one of the three games that's eating up a $40 million budget, and making ten smaller ones instead? are publishers hopelessly locked in chasing this needy demographic?

 

[Nyoro SF]

Just in case Harkin or Cream happen to have these? Anyone? Pretty please? PM me if it can't be posted

Indeed, I was hoping to see the more direct numbers for the console JRPG market to validate other data that is currently available...

 

[Kyoufu]

Like Welfare said, anything posted here can't be considered "official" and also will bring unwanted attention from other places onto our info sources. If you can't find what you are looking for in the thread just ask for a PM.

But I thought you said we got numbers straight from NPD for free? I don't understand. What is a lie and what is real???

 

[Welfare]

But I thought you said we got numbers straight from NPD for free? I don't understand. What is a lie and what is real???

Does Mulcair actually work for NPD?

 

[Raist]

i'm trying to think of the influential things that are blowing up in the industry and how often does it happen on dedicated hardware anymore? maybe just monster hunter in japan, but it's been a while since clones of that started coming.

toby fox asked for $5,000 to make undertale, got $50,000, and has so far earned over $6,000,000 from steam. it's also a game that actually uses the pc as a means to tell its story, something i've only seen in one or two games before this. i'm sure now there are publishers who would love to have this on console, but the game wouldn't really be the same on console. nor would it have been greenlit in the first place. stuff like brothers, journey, and shovel knight can only get a retail release after being a hit on digital platforms. shouldn't this be a hint that there's value in taking a step back, maybe devoting the resources to one of the three games that's eating up a $40 million budget, and making ten smaller ones instead? are publishers hopelessly locked in chasing this needy demographic?

Yeah, I thought we might start seeing big studios going after that market.
I hope they don't do though, because that might be tough for indies.

 

[benny_a]

shouldn't this be a hint that there's value in taking a step back, maybe devoting the resources to one of the three games that's eating up a $40 million budget, and making ten smaller ones instead? are publishers hopelessly locked in chasing this needy demographic?

Ubisoft does not green light every game any more. If an Ubisoft studio wants to make a game that costs as much as many Kickstarters they can just do that without any management approval.