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[Masklinn]

Monster fail is you. Since the PS3's launch, the 360 accelerated and only gained.

 

[gofreak]

Edit: The problem is that sales are not in a vacuum. We already know that the 360's sales are heading in a positive direction (YOY growth) and at least for now the PS3's are not. I think if the price were to drop $100, which doesn't seem likely anytime soon, then they might regain some momentum, but at this point:
The 360's lead week by week in the US has been equal to or slightly higher than the PS3's growing lead in Japan. Europe is a complete unknown.

Ultimately it doesn't matter much if PS3 is catching up by 1 few thousand or even 20-30k per month as neither consumers nor developers will sync the launch times in their mind when making decisions. It's also unlikely that when next gen systems come out PS3 will wait another two years before introducing a new system. Unless sales really pick up, which for PS3, which seems unlikely, it seems like the last few years of the "10 year cycle" will be pretty sparse.

You could take out the 360 comparison and still make the point about the Dreamcast comparison..

As for developers and consumers..I don't think most consumers have sales-age charts in their heads when making decisions about what console to buy The major disadvantage for PS3 in that decision making process is price. Regarding publishers, their decision to support PS3 comes down to whether PS3 has 'enough' of the HD pie to justify supporting it as part of the 3-component HD market. As is, I think it has more than enough of that pie to justify their support. I think you see that reflected in continuing support.

Monster fail is you. Since the PS3's launch, the 360 accelerated and only gained.

It's been a little more stop-start than that, even just within NA. Until the price cuts last year, PS3 was gaining even just in NA IIRC. Its share of the HD software market also ballooned last year as the userbase grew (looking at various publisher's 08 vs 07 platform splits)..once PS3 launched, the only way was down for 360's share of the HD software market. The fall might have stabilised and/or reversed since the 360 cuts last year, but it went far enough for PS3 to get itself an non-negligible share of HD software sales, as far as publishers go.

Globally the userbase gap certainly hasn't seen accelerating growth..it has at best remained roughly the same overall since the PS3 launched, with ups and downs along the way.

 

[NemesisPrime]

*The* graph is incoming in 10...9....8....

 

[Masklinn]

It's been a little more stop-start than that, even just within NA. Until the price cuts last year, PS3 was gaining even just in NA IIRC. Its share of the HD software market also balooned last year as the userbase grew (looking at various publisher's 08 vs 07 platform splits)..once PS3 launched, the only way was down for 360's share of the HD software market. The fall might have stabilised and/or reversed since the 360 cuts last year, but it went far enough for PS3 to get itself an non-negligible share of HD software sales, as far as publishers go.

I know, see the chart I posted, it tells the whole story.

But the fact is still that even though it came close the PS3 never reduced the 360's lead from what it was at its launch. At best it came back to it around 2008's third trimester.

 

[itxaka]

*The* graph is incoming in 10...9....8....

 

[womfalcs3]

I like how people hate on PS3, yet it's performing better than the X360 did at a much higher price point.

Those people are sensationalists who can't think beyond the present, and neglect the past.

When PS3 beats the X360, you hear them say, "X360 is doomed. Oh noes."

When X360 beats the PS3, you hear them say, "PS3 is doomed. It's the Dreamcast."

 

[Pureauthor]

Why would synced launch dates be the least bit important, really?

 

[gofreak]

I know, see the chart I posted, it tells the whole story.

But the fact is still that even though it came close the PS3 never reduced the 360's lead from what it was at its launch. At best it came back to it around 2008's third trimester.

Yep, that's true, I read your comment initially as 360 having only ever grown the gap on a month-to-month basis (if not also in an accelerating way). It's true that it's never gotten smaller in NA than the gap at launch, but it has grown and shrunk in the months since.

Sony came close to eating into the at-launch gap in NA last year, but they fumbled the ball on pricing in the latter half of the year. Everything was lined up well for them until the unreciprocated 360 cuts, which I think surprised most people (not that 360 cut, but that Sony didn't respond).

 

[Dragon]

NPD US Analysis: PS3 Standing Strong Despite Price

http://ps3thevolution.com/2009/03/20/npd-ps3-standing-strong-despite-price/



:lol

Dear oh dear.:lol

You two need to get a new schtick.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Why would synced launch dates be the least bit important, really?

Because after the 360 is completely finished as a viable platform, the PS3 will certainly have one more full year that will match the 360's last year, thus finally bringing things to the even keel that they've secretly been at all along.

 

[Pureauthor]

I like how people hate on PS3, yet it's performing better than the X360 did at a much higher price point.

Those people are sensationalists who can't think beyond the present, and neglect the past.

Is it performing better than the X360 now?

 

[Dragon]

Because after the 360 is completely finished as a viable platform, the PS3 will certainly have one more full year that will match the 360's last year, thus finally bringing things to the even keel that they've secretly been at all along.

The people posting that graph showing the PS3 'ahead' just don't understand the public mind share.

Hint: The people that massage the numbers to show the PS3's success in their eyes are only highlighting the fact that it's been a miserable failure. When you have to resort to such practices you're on the losing team. Time to rebuild. Trade for some prospects and get rid of your veterans.

 

[Masklinn]

I like how people hate on PS3, yet it's performing better than the X360 did at a much higher price point.

Which is completely irrelevant as it's not competing with the 360 of two years ago, it's competing with the 360 of right now. And it's not winning.

 

[Psychotext]

KZ2s real day of reckoning is gong to be in three weeks. If KZ2 manages to sell another 300k or manage better given the longer time on the charts, lots of people in this thread will be vindicated...

So 623k total in just over a month, selling to a 7.2m PS3 install base would good? Gears 1 did that in 3 weeks with 3.4m 360s sold and COD:WaW did it in 2 weeks with 6.1m PS3s sold.

 

[farnham]

Which is completely irrelevant as it's not competing with the 360 of two years ago, it's competing with the 360 of right now. And it's not winning.

plus there is another console that is totally owning the market right now..

sure people can claim that the wii is irrelevant because its not HD

but the reality is that a lot of those kids that bought wiis would have bought 360s or ps3s if the wii wasnt there

 

[Koren]

http://www.paulkramm.com/junkdrawer/duhlines.gif

Hey, the real predictions were pretty tricky to get right :

(As in not doing a slope change for PS3) :lol

 

[theBishop]

The people posting that graph showing the PS3 'ahead' just don't understand the public mind share.

Hint: The people that massage the numbers to show the PS3's success in their eyes are only highlighting the fact that it's been a miserable failure. When you have to resort to such practices you're on the losing team. Time to rebuild. Trade for some prospects and get rid of your veterans.

Sales Age <3

 

[F#A#Oo]

I like how people hate on PS3, yet it's performing better than the X360 did at a much higher price point.

Those people are sensationalists who can't think beyond the present, and neglect the past.

When PS3 beats the X360, you hear them say, "X360 is doomed. Oh noes."

When X360 beats the PS3, you hear them say, "PS3 is doomed. It's the Dreamcast."

We're in the present...and PS3 is underperforming compared to the 360 and that is all that matters...

 

[CiSTM]

Next month KZ2 will probably do 250k. So one month sales would be 573k. Not that bad. It also did well in euroland so it has been solid launch.

 

[Dabanton]

You two need to get a new schtick.

Calm down,it's not that serious. I was laughing that he bothered to post that.

 

[PuppetSlave]

Hey, the real predictions were pretty tricky to get right :

(As in not doing a slope change for PS3) :lol

Thats year end. Your dots are a year ahead.

 

[D4Danger]

NPD US Analysis: PS3 Standing Strong Despite Price

http://ps3thevolution.com/2009/03/20/npd-ps3-standing-strong-despite-price/

:lol

There's so much spin in that post it drilled through the Internet.

 

[DMeisterJ]

So 623k total in just over a month, selling to a 7.2m PS3 install base would good? Gears 1 did that in 3 weeks with 3.4m 360s sold and COD:WaW did it in 2 weeks with 6.1m PS3s sold.

Well, it would have the best 1 month opening of an FPS on the PS3 by a long shot if it is ~600k by the end of March. So yeah, I'd consider that 'good'.

Edit: I'm not saying that's going to happen, but it will vindicate people who said the game would have had a much stronger opening if it was out the whole month, and it also would have proven that the amount of days the game was on sale severly impacted the NPD results.

 

[F#A#Oo]

Next month KZ2 will probably do 250k. So one month sales would be 573k. Not that bad. It also did well in euroland so it has been solid launch.

I'm thinking it will come in at about 150k and below...

This is me assuming that everyone that wanted a copy got theirs within the 2 days that February NPD's covered...

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I like how people hate on PS3, yet it's performing better than the X360 did at a much higher price point.

Those people are sensationalists who can't think beyond the present, and neglect the past.

When PS3 beats the X360, you hear them say, "X360 is doomed. Oh noes."

When X360 beats the PS3, you hear them say, "PS3 is doomed. It's the Dreamcast."

Isn't disregarding the multimillion unit gap between the two consoles due to MS launching a year early the ultimate act of "neglect[ing] the past"?

Because that's pretty much all people are saying.

 

[gofreak]

Well, it would have the best 1 month opening of an FPS on the PS3 by a long shot if it is ~600k by the end of March. So yeah, I'd consider that 'good'.

I think he's saying World at War did that kind of number in 2 weeks on PS3.

Of course, KZ2 could have also..but we won't know for sure. We'll know if it hasn't next month, if the march total is less than 300k or whatever, but if the march total is >300k, we won't know for sure if it picked up most of those sales in the first two weeks of the month or whatever..

I think it's quite possible KZ2 did half a million plus in its first two weeks, looking at day one and two sales. The other thing to remember Psychotext alongside userbase differences, though, is timing differences. WaW was released in Q4, by far the biggest quarter of the year, where there is an abundance of less targetted sales to be picked up that simply aren't there at other times of the year. KZ2 has released in Q1, arguably the slowest quarter of the year (?) so if it did comparable figures to a large-franchise FPS in the preceding Q4, I'd consider that to be pretty decent.

 

[Psychotext]

Well, it would have the best 1 month opening of an FPS on the PS3 by a long shot if it is ~600k by the end of March. So yeah, I'd consider that 'good'.

Ignoring the 600k COD:WaW did on the PS3 in two weeks?

 

[womfalcs3]

Isn't disregarding the multimillion unit gap between the two consoles due to MS launching a year early the ultimate act of "neglect[ing] the past"?

Because that's pretty much all people are saying.

It is, and the fact MS launched its system a year earlier shouldn't be neglected. People, however, cannot jump to "PS3 is doomed" statements when it's beating the X360 when launches are synched.

It shows a double standard.

The PS3 did better at a higher price point in the same time-frame, yet it's being deemed as a Dreamcast or a GameCube, yet the console that did worse is claimed to be doing great.

 

[CiSTM]

I'm thinking it will come in at about 150k and below...

This is me assuming that everyone that wanted a copy got theirs within the 2 days that February NPD's covered...

It's possible. My predictions are always dead wrong :lol

 

[Frencherman]

So still no information about the Top 30 in Software?

 

[Hammer24]

WaW was released in Q4, by far the biggest quarter of the year, where there is an abundance of less targetted sales to be picked up that simply aren't there at other times of the year. KZ2 has released in Q1, arguably the slowest quarter of the year (?) so if it did comparable figures to a large-franchise FPS in the preceding Q4, I'd consider that to be pretty decent.

Isn´t it the other way around? In Q4 there are way more games competing with each other, against an uncontested release in Q1.

 

[Kolgar]

I guess it's true what they say about hope never dies. We still got some tenacious hanger-on-ers, here.

I've always said I see the gulfs between the three competitors widening for the remainder of this generation, at least here in the U.S. Wii is knocking down doors to entirely new audiences; 360 is a hit with the hardcore and making inroads with the PS2 crowd; and PS3 is carving out a space for itself but really needs Blu-ray to take off. (A tall order in this economy.)

Third place can be a dangerous place to be, but ironically, 360's success in the HD space may help ensure a flow of games for PS3 (quick ports).

I do wish Sony would do more to differentiate the console in consumers' minds, but so far, I think they've dropped the ball with me-too motion control, useless moneypits like Home, and a conspicuous lack of (good) advertising.

 

[Nocebo]

So still no information about the Top 30 in Software?

Top 30? Is there ever? Most would be top 20 I think?

 

[the thoroughbred]

As for developers and consumers..I don't think most consumers have sales-age charts in their heads when making decisions about what console to buy

I do agree with you on this statement, but what one's friends and contemporaries have does certainly have an influence on what one is going to purchase.

I for example wanted a GC back in 2001, straight off the back of the 64 I wanted more of the same. However, not a single person I knew had one. In fact I don't think I had seen one in person till a few years later. So before 2002 had come I think, I went and purchased a ps2, which all my friends had. We played endless multiplayer games together. Eventually I did go and get what I wanted but it wasn't until a whole 5 years later. And also most people wouldn't have done that, that late in a cycle.

So, consumers might not have sales-age in their heads when they decide on their purchase, but what appears to each consumer to be the mean*, does have a great influence on their decision. And generally speaking (I do say generally) that turns out to be the market leader.

* by "mean" I mean the purchase has to solve the most problems. For example having the same platform as friends will; enable sharing of games, accessibility in multiplayer, higher chance in equality of skill level, being cool etc etc

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

It is, and the fact MS launched its system a year earlier shouldn't be neglected. People, however, cannot jump to "PS3 is doomed" statements when it's beating the X360 when launches are synched.

It shows a double standard.

The PS3 did better at a higher price point in the same time-frame, yet it's being deemed as a Dreamcast or a GameCube, yet the console that did worse is claimed to be doing great.

You seem to be contradicting yourself, though. The only way to defend the use of a chart that literally has no bearing on the current market because it literally ignores the past, seems to me to be an act of ignoring the past yourself. The burden of performance on the PS3 is not to perform at or close to the 360 when synched up in a frankly meaningless way, it is, I would imagine, to perform better than the 360 or at least better than the PS3 did at the same time last year. The reason that the synched up chart has little bearing, I think, is because the market does not exist in a vacuum. That couple of million 360 users are a permanent facet of the userbase. This means that even with most publicly maligned D-Pad ever, the 360 version of Street Fighter still outsold the PS3 version. This means that weird and game crippling DLC deals will continue to be made (Fallout 3). This means that even when multiplatform games start off being developed for PS3, they still end up clearly engineered to take advantage of the 360 more (Skate 2).

These factors all congeal to create the current state of the market. So, no, the PS3 is not doomed, but the reality of a chart that adheres to the laws of time and space contains a lot of the reasons why the PS3 is not doing as well as it could be.

 

[manueldelalas]

It is, and the fact MS launched its system a year earlier shouldn't be neglected. People, however, cannot jump to "PS3 is doomed" statements when it's beating the X360 when launches are synched.

It shows a double standard.

The PS3 did better at a higher price point in the same time-frame, yet it's being deemed as a Dreamcast or a GameCube, yet the console that did worse is claimed to be doing great.

What shouldn't be neglected is the fact that the difference between both consoles has increased since the PS3 launch.

Also it shouldn't be neglected the fact that at half the price point X360 games look the same or better (like most of the multiplatform games) than PS3 games and with less load times and install times (and many games have the same loading times on the PS3 installed than the same game on the 360 with no install).

So the price point is purely Sony's fault who was unable to make a decent priced HD console.

And this is war bitches! The winner of the (second place) war is the one who sells the most units, as it has always been, so don't begin to change the rules.

 

[gofreak]

Isn´t it the other way around? In Q4 there are way more games competing with each other, against an uncontested release in Q1.

I'd wonder if those things balance each other out..or if games are still more hit-driven, and higher profile games have more to gain in Q4 than in Q1. My gut instinct says bigger, high profile games have more 'extra' sales to soak up in Q4 than they do in Q1, since more holiday purchasers may gravitate toward what's 'big'. I could be wrong though.

Feb this year wasn't as lacking for big names either as it usually might, mind you, SF4 seems to have been a disproportionately large attention-grabber on PS3.

 

[shykyoichi]

Wii is recession-proof. And wasn't Patcher touting a 700k+ Wii sales?

 

[Jocchan]

Top 30? Is there ever? Most would be top 20 I think?

Top 20 + sometimes top 10s for each platform.
I keep entering this thread hoping someone has posted them

 

[ThatHurt]

Isn't disregarding the multimillion unit gap between the two consoles due to MS launching a year early the ultimate act of "neglect[ing] the past"?

Because that's pretty much all people are saying.

Wait..
So people should ignore the fact that the 360 is ahead because they did not wait to put in a HD DVD player that would have jacked up its costs to 600 at launch?

Guess we should also ignore that the increase in sales they have been seeing due to the reduction in price. I mean, its not fair to compair the 360 and PS3 if the 360 can cut its console costs faster because it did not sell its soul to push a HD format.

And we should also ignore that the 5 million head start is now a 7 million console lead.

Well if you put it that way.. The 360 is in last place.. they should just get out of the console buisness and stick to windows.

 

[Balb]

I guess it's true what they say about hope never dies. We still got some tenacious hanger-on-ers, here.

I've always said I see the gulfs between the three competitors widening for the remainder of this generation, at least here in the U.S. Wii is knocking down doors to entirely new audiences; 360 is a hit with the hardcore and making inroads with the PS2 crowd; and PS3 is carving out a space for itself but really needs Blu-ray to take off. (A tall order in this economy.)

Third place can be a dangerous place to be, but ironically, 360's success in the HD space may help ensure a flow of games for PS3 (quick ports).

I do wish Sony would do more to differentiate the console in consumers' minds, but so far, I think they've dropped the ball with me-too motion control, useless moneypits like Home, and a conspicuous lack of (good) advertising.

Well said.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

Sony's gotten so good at promising to deliver the world forever a day into the future that they've gotten armchair analysts doing it. Just wait, the PS3 will be beating the 360 of today in a year from now!

It is, and the fact MS launched its system a year earlier shouldn't be neglected. People, however, cannot jump to "PS3 is doomed" statements when it's beating the X360 when launches are synched.

Do you remember any launch synched charts comparing the Dreamcast and PS2? How about PS2 and Xbox or Cube? Trying to even find meaning into what they would mean today is impossible. The idea is plainly meaningless. That is why people are jumping to the PS3 is doomed statements.

Not that anyone is actually making "PS3 is doomed" statements. Mostly everyone has accepted that it's stuck in third in the US. That doesn't really mean much. It might not get a few niche games that developers don't think it's worth the hassle of porting over, but otherwise it'll have largely the same games as the 360.

The comparisons to Cube and DC are mostly about convienence than anything else. They were the least popular systems of their time with steady support and a decent hardcore following. Sound familiar? Well okay, sometimes they are about sales, but only to make jokes. The n64 would be more apt if it didn't actually sell really well. Or have absolutely nothing in common with any videogame system made in the last decade.

 

[Nocebo]

I think the people that matter don't care how the ps3 is doing compared to the xbox360 from years ago. The PS3 is losing to its competitors right now and that makes it look bad. I think the 360 didn't do so hot because of the lack of game support and maybe RROD fears. But what is there to lift the PS3 up to beat the present day 360? The developer support for PS3 is probably as good as it is going to get. If something like KZ2 can't push significant numbers (we'll find out for sure in march npd thread) then what else is there? GT5?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

It is, and the fact MS launched its system a year earlier shouldn't be neglected. People, however, cannot jump to "PS3 is doomed" statements when it's beating the X360 when launches are synched.

It shows a double standard.

The PS3 did better at a higher price point in the same time-frame, yet it's being deemed as a Dreamcast or a GameCube, yet the console that did worse is claimed to be doing great.

The Dreamcast launched a year ahead of the PS2, yet somehow the PS2 was able to overcome this tragic and massive deficit without resorting to statistical trickery.

 

[gofreak]

The comparisons to Cube and DC are mostly about convienence than anything else. They were the least popular systems of their time with steady support and a decent hardcore following. Sound familiar?

Doesn't sound familiar to GC or certainly DC, wrt support.

The difference between PS3 and these systems - a pretty facking key difference from a consumer's POV - is that their market performance (which in absolute terms was a lot lower than PS3's anyway), directly reflected the level of content access an owner of those systems had. DC publisher support completely imploded. GC didn't enjoy particularly strong support. Their market performance did actually matter to the quality of the ownership experience.

That's very different to the case on PS3.

 

[Nocebo]

The Dreamcast launched a year ahead of the PS2, yet somehow the PS2 was able to overcome this tragic and massive deficit without resorting to statistical trickery.

Is that guy being thrown onto a landmine?

 

[Hammer24]

I'd wonder if those things balance each other out..or if games are still more hit-driven, and higher profile games have more to gain in Q4 than in Q1. My gut instinct says bigger, high profile games have more 'extra' sales to soak up in Q4 than they do in Q1, since more holiday purchasers may gravitate toward what's 'big'. I could be wrong though.

IIRC, weren´t Mass Effect and Bioshock games that broke out of the "high profile game in Q4" pattern, and tremendously profited from it?

Feb this year wasn't as lacking for big names either as it usually might, mind you, SF4 seems to have been a disproportionately large attention-grabber on PS3.

I´d still say one main competitor is better than more than a hand full.

 

[F#A#Oo]

I think the people that matter don't care how the ps3 is doing compared to the xbox360 from years ago. The PS3 is losing to its competitors right now and that makes it look bad. I think the 360 didn't do so hot because of the lack of game support and maybe RROD fears. But what is there to lift the PS3 up to beat the present day 360? The developer support for PS3 is probably as good as it is going to get. If something like KZ2 can't push significant numbers (we'll find out for sure in march npd thread) then what else is there? GT5?

GT5, Heavy Rain, God of War, Final Fantasy 13 (it is coming out before the 360 version right?)

 

[DMeisterJ]

Ignoring the 600k COD:WaW did on the PS3 in two weeks?

Obviously KZ2 is not as big as CoD, and that's not what I'm getting at. I'm simply saying that if the game launched at the top of the month, it could have done better. I'm no analyst, so I don't know what 'better' is, but if it manages another 300k or so next month, then we can say that if the game launched at the top of March, it could have sold 550k or something. Less than CoD: WaW did in 2 weeks, but it would have been a much better opening than 323k or whatever it is.

I'm just saying lots of people are judging this game on a stunted launch release time-frame, and to truly have an idea of how good/bad it will do, we need to wait til next month.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

Not too bad numbers on KZ2, and it's going to clock in much more. Probably a little higher than I expected in those two days regardless. Word of mouth especially, along with the added sales days will definitely put out some good numbers. Sony needs a price cut to spur systems off the shelf, especially in this economy woes. Is it going to be console profitablity, or is it smarter to get more consoles out there for potential royalties, that's what they're discussing I'm sure.

SF4 really didn't do as well as I expected actually. I actually thought even in that time it would've broken the 1 million mark easily.

360 is doing well. The HD market is pretty healthy which is very nice to see, devs are probably happy that they can continue to put big support into that segment. It'll take both machines a big drop in sales to get them to shift their top shelf support off them.

We don't have any numbers for KZ2 in other parts of the world yet no?

Nice try but I still miss Hoffman.