REMEMBER CITADEL said:
As for the future part, that's entirely a matter of taste. Microsoft already has plenty of exclusive core content for the remainder of the year across traditional games, Kinect games (or are you one of those people who think that Kinect automatically means "casual"?) and XBLA releases, with more probably to be announced. I'm willing to bet that the 360 continues outselling PS3 both in most multiplatform and most exclusive core titles.
I think the landscape is becoming pretty clear.
While certainly Kinect is eating up some of the MS "core" exclusives that could have come out instead, their choice is no doubt the right move and will benefit both casuals and core in the long run. It's becoming pretty evident just by looking at PS3 sales that no amount of exclusives this late in a generation is going to significantly increase sales. Their impact is minimal.
Microsoft could have elected to make Kinect a smaller role and made more "core" exclusives in 2011, but it's now becoming very clear that even an additional 7-10 exclusives spread throughout this year was not going to have the same impact on sales that Kinect is having. Kinect's likely permanently increased the average amount of monthly sales somewhere around 20% and no amount of exclusives was going to do that.
The fact is when you consider the entire traditional "core" user base between the 360, PS3, and Wii, it's quickly becoming eaten up for these price points. We're getting close to that total upper ceiling of 150,000-200,000 million users if you take out the budget-only buyers that always jump in when prices dip in the below $199-$100 range. In other words if there was no new casual market, I can't see either PS3 nor 360 pushing far above 60 million users world wide without dropping into the budget range since traditionally that audience maxed at around 200 million world wide users and that's at the very end of the generation. Post final price drops.
So the only way for Microsoft to get growth right now....was to go casual and go Kinect. That was the only way to expand. But if Kinect grows so does the "core" 360 user base over the next 2-3 years. Coupled with the fact that if Kinect can pull in some "core" games, it may actually steal customers, not just from the Wii, but the PS3 's current and future core base as well.
A AAA Kinect game that appeals to the "core" audience is a much bigger incentive for that budget $199 gamer to pick the cheap 360 versus the cheap PS3 than would just another Microsoft exclusive competitor to Motor Storm or God of War. Especially if there's no Move alternative to keep things even. Because that's actually truly something different.