Support NeoGAF

[theprodigy]

how does this thread have fewer posts than the January one did at this point?

 

[jcm]

I know everything.

Spoiler

I share what I find interesting

The 3DS/Vita split isn't interesting?

how does this thread have fewer posts than the January one did at this point?

January was full of surprising bad news. There's more to talk about when that happens.

 

[CosmicQueso]

how does this thread have fewer posts than the January one did at this point?

Because the news is much better and that makes GAF less vocal.

 

[Nirolak]

As said earlier

http://venturebeat.com/2014/02/26/o...-50-percent-of-all-in-game-revenue-exclusive/

You can't sustain an industry with only 0.15% of the whole audience giving you around 50% of your revenue, you just can't. It's a nightmare-in-the-making. And let's not even discuss about how the quality itself is going down, and more and more free to play are going the extorsion route. Less and less possibly good gaming experiences (of any kind, free to play as well - DQM is a recent example of this done well), much more bad experiences...you can!t expect people to stay forever if things continue like this. And, so far, there doesn't seem to be a stop to such a trend: I fear it even accelerated, recently O_O

Well, I mean, casinos have been going since at least the 19th century...

That said even if that entire group burnt out, 50% of iOS/Android f2p revenue is still a *lot* of revenue.

 

[John Harker]

The 3DS/Vita split isn't interesting?



January was full of surprising bad news. There's more to talk about when that happens.

I tend to avoid console comparisons, mainly because people just want to use what I say as fuel for agendas. I mean, you aren't one of them, but most people who ask are.

I hate console agendas.
Sure, I have my personal preferences on what I like to play on, but I want everything to be successful, why people want some hardware to fail is beyond my understanding. Rising waters raise all ships.

Healthy market means more for everyone.
Less competition is bad, 'one console future' is death of industry and all that.

That said, neither Vita or 3DS are doing particularly well....
But the 3DS still proposes a relatively interesting proposition depending on your current development pipeline, though 3rd party software sales are still anemic overall.

 

[OldKingDoran]

Wow, with those Vita sales, no wonder SCEA has relegated it to PS4 accessory and indie ports.

Sucks too, didn't they recently created a third party/localization team?

They should just focus on bringing Japanese games over, and maybe doing 2-3 big releases a year.

 

[Ty4on]

This is crazy. Apple cleaned up post iPhone.

As said earlier

http://venturebeat.com/2014/02/26/o...-50-percent-of-all-in-game-revenue-exclusive/

You can't sustain an industry with only 0.15% of the whole audience giving you around 50% of your revenue, you just can't. It's a nightmare-in-the-making. And let's not even discuss about how the quality itself is going down, and more and more free to play are going the extorsion route. Less and less possibly good gaming experiences (of any kind, free to play as well - DQM is a recent example of this done well), much more bad experiences...you can!t expect people to stay forever if things continue like this. And, so far, there doesn't seem to be a stop to such a trend: I fear it even accelerated, recently O_O

I think it's so much more than gaming. The mobile devices are very popular entertainment devices rendering handheld gaming systems redundant. We see something similar with internet killing off newspapers. The reason isn't just online newspapers, but also new stuff like Twitter and for many people here NeoGAF.

The PSP was like an early iPad (UMD movies) which is why I think the Vita suffered the most. It took longer for younger kids to move over to iOS/Android and the core market of Nintendo fans was bigger. Kids rather want iPads and iPod touches and older people don't need more entertainment on the go.

 

[jroc74]

I agree for the PS4 to still be hard to find......its amazing its still outselling the XBO. The Titan Fall, Infamous SS duel is gonna be interesting.

Which console is gonna benefit the most from its exclusive?

 

[Mpl90]

Well, I mean, casinos have been going since at least the 19th century...

History is full of whales, it's not even funny
No, seriously: I don't think at all it'll completely disappear, since the userbase is gigantic, and, as said, good things are still there, but with this trend of "freeification" of every title + bad quality / extorsive practises (it's the combination that makes this awful), I can't see mobile going so strong for too long...I see a big drop if things don't change. So far, I'm not seeing signs of good changes, far from it.

 

[kmax]

how does this thread have fewer posts than the January one did at this point?

Because it's always more fun to speculate about things when everything goes south than when most things are good.

 

[Nirolak]

History is full of whales, it's not even funny
No, seriously: I don't think at all it'll completely disappear, since the userbase is gigantic, and, as said, good things are still there, but with this trend of "freeification" of every title + bad quality / extorsive practises (it's the combination that makes this awful), I can't see mobile going so strong for too long...I see a big drop if things don't change. So far, I'm not seeing signs of good changes, far from it.

The question is, do the people playing these games actually find them to be bad?

I'm assuming they're not spending all this money on games they don't like.

 

[SilverBulletKY]

Minecraft literally prints money, it's ridiculous how much that game has sold.

Figuratively

 

[Fafalada]

Well, I mean, casinos have been going since at least the 19th century...
That said even if that entire group burnt out, 50% of iOS/Android f2p revenue is still a *lot* of revenue.

iOS/Android developers have to PAY for users to play their games in the first place, and that acquisition cost is now higher than any other platform. If AAA has sustainability problems - mobile is going through the same cycle, just on an accelerated timeline.

 

[Nirolak]

iOS/Android developers have to PAY for users to play their games in the first place, and that acquisition cost is now higher than any other platform. If AAA has sustainability problems - mobile is going through the same cycle, just on an accelerated timeline.

Paid acquisition through advertising is costly, yes, but that doesn't tell us if the people who open up the game actually like it or not, or their conversion and retention rate.

Obviously at some point you cross the barrier and it makes sense to stop advertising since your new users aren't worth what they cost.

 

[Mutanthands]

History is full of whales, it's not even funny
No, seriously: I don't think at all it'll completely disappear, since the userbase is gigantic, and, as said, good things are still there, but with this trend of "freeification" of every title + bad quality / extorsive practises (it's the combination that makes this awful), I can't see mobile going so strong for too long...I see a big drop if things don't change. So far, I'm not seeing signs of good changes, far from it.

I think a key difference in mobile's case is that even if there is a big crash, the devices will still be out there in people's hands, allowing the game makers a greater opportunity to adjust to downturns and changes in the market with a different model. With the dedicated handheld market downturn, people stop buying the devices, and you don't get a second chance.

 

[Nirolak]

I think a key difference in mobile's case is that even if there is a big crash, the devices will still be out there in people's hands, allowing the game makers a greater opportunity to adjust to downturns and changes in the market with a different model. With the dedicated handheld market downturn, people stop buying the devices, and you don't get a second chance.

Right, an issue in smartphone gaming revenues doesn't directly translate to success for dedicated handhelds.

There are also tons of free users and still tons of paid games that are selling lots and lots of copies. It's just not as profitable for companies, but it still satisfies consumers which is where the problem handhelds have lie.

When Angry Birds has 1 billion downloads that's a lot of people, even assuming a bunch of overlap, that have something to play on a device they always carry with them.

 

[Fafalada]

Paid acquisition through advertising is costly, yes, but that doesn't tell us if the people who open up the game actually like it or not, or their conversion and retention rate.

Well that obviously varies greatly with each product. Rising costs are just a reflection of acquisition through any other means becoming less and less likely.

Obviously at some point you cross the barrier and it makes sense to stop advertising since your new users aren't worth what they cost.

Yes, and with F2P that risk is increasingly more problematic because monetization can be a fickle problem with less revenue-guarantees.

I'm assuming they're not spending all this money on games they don't like

Strictly speaking they are still spending a fraction of what people drop on F2P on other platforms. So if you use the "money spent = enjoyment" logic, it would lead to "mobile = less enjoyable" conclusion.

 

[Jeff-DSA]

I wouldn't be surprised to see XB1 outsell the PS4 in March by a decent margin (30%-40%) given that supply is much higher, the new bundle, and just plain old hype for Titanfall. Second Son probably won't sell a lot consoles beyond what Sony is already going to sell given supply constraints anyway.

Going beyond March when supply should start catching up, it's going to be interesting to see if MS can keep momentum rolling.

If Sony still outsells Microsoft in March, well, that's a really, really bad sign and it could get ugly going forward unless E3 is full of huge announcements.

 

[Nirolak]

Well that obviously varies greatly with each product. Rising costs are just a reflection of acquisition through any other means becoming less and less likely.


Yes, and with F2P that risk is increasingly more problematic because monetization can be a fickle problem with less revenue-guarantees, and more so on mobile platforms.


Strictly speaking they are still spending a fraction of what people drop on F2P on other platforms. So if you use the "money spent = enjoyment" logic, it would lead to "mobile = less enjoyable" conclusion.

Yes, one thing that always stuck out to me is the difference in monetization between PC and mobile.

Feel free to correct my statement if it's incorrect.

On PC, you often push for engagement and then monetize a larger percentage of the player base who sits and plays your game for hours on end.

On mobile, you try to monetize as fast as possible, abusing the fact that people want to play something right now (thus things like stamina) instead of winning their money through long term satisfaction.

However, to get that payment, I still think they have to be hitting it off with people on some level, even if I suspect it's less satisfaction than we see out of things like LoL, TF2, Dota 2, or even FIFA Online.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

I don't think it's as unexpected as it is fascinating to see this transition taking place.

There really isn't a lot that Nintendo (or Sony) can do about this. Gaming on devices that you already own is more convenient for consumers, and the pricing strategy is far more inviting (Free - $15) than dropping $30-$40 on new games.

The dedicated handheld market will become a niche, and will continue to exist... but sales expectations will have to be tempered to reflect reality. There won't be another period similar to when the Game Boy or the DS dominated. Those days are done.

Hence I think the heavy push on indie games on things like the vita. They satisfy the lower price range urge, while still having more premium, more robust offerings at the 30-40 range.

All this talk of abandoning dedicated handhelds in favor of a phone only future scars me. Given many of the most successful mobile games are barely above the Newgrounds flash games in terms of depth, it would basically kill off a lot of creativity and variety in the mobile gaming area.

 

[Crom]

I really hope that Monster Hunter on Wii U has put up respectable digital numbers. I desperately want MH4U to come to the Wii U as I just cannot get into the game on a small screen. Please?

Didn't it sell solidly in Japan? That should count for something.

Same here brother. People that complain about the Wii U not having games should pick this up and be kept busy until May.

I am going to skip MH4 if it only comes out on 3DS. Love playing it on the big screen.

Hell, I can just keep playing 3 on Wii U. I am 150 hours into it and still have plenty more to go.

 

[Biker19]

PS4 demand is there; supply isn't.

If there was a bump in February due to the beta, why do you not expect there to be a bump when the ACTUAL game releases? Of course there will be a large bump for Titanfall.

GZ is not exclusive. It's on four other consoles. I wouldn't be surprised if the PS3 version outsells the PS4 version. Infamous has never been a system seller. PS4 owners will surely buy the game but it will not convince a lot of people to purchase the system.

If anything, the PS4 version of Ground Zeroes are outselling the PS3 version in pre-orders (both in Amazon & in Gamestop), & the MGS series is far more popular on Playstation consoles than on Xbox consoles. Who in the world would want to pick up the weaker version over the superior version?

 

[Crom]

If anything, the PS4 version of Ground Zeroes are outselling the PS3 version in pre-orders (both in Amazon & in Gamestop), & the MGS series is far more popular on Playstation consoles than on Xbox consoles. Who in the world would want to pick up the weaker version over the superior version?

Who in the world would want to pick up a demo for $30?

Spoiler

plus tax

 

[maabus1999]

History is full of whales, it's not even funny
No, seriously: I don't think at all it'll completely disappear, since the userbase is gigantic, and, as said, good things are still there, but with this trend of "freeification" of every title + bad quality / extorsive practises (it's the combination that makes this awful), I can't see mobile going so strong for too long...I see a big drop if things don't change. So far, I'm not seeing signs of good changes, far from it.

Go look at King Digital's IPO valuation, then compare it to EA's current valuation. Go cry yourself to sleep now. Mobile has so much going for it financially right now that the trend won't change any time soon.

Disclaimer: I don't agree with the valuation of King at all, especially with the risk of a one hit wonder that is peaking in revenue.

 

[Petrae]

Hence I think the heavy push on indie games on things like the vita. They satisfy the lower price range urge, while still having more premium, more robust offerings at the 30-40 range.

All this talk of abandoning dedicated handhelds in favor of a phone only future scars me. Given many of the most successful mobile games are barely above the Newgrounds flash games in terms of depth, it would basically kill off a lot of creativity and variety in the mobile gaming area.

I don't really see a scenario where dedicated handhelds go away entirely. Despite the contracting market, there is still a decent number of consumers who will buy in.

The question, to me, is more about how many handheld competitors there will be. While Nintendo seems like a good bet to stick around, will Sony? Could someone else jump in to shake things up? I could speculate further, but it's probably better to just let the picture develop on its own.

 

[molnizzle]

Nintendo as a business confuses me.

Edit: http://www.macrumors.com/2014/03/13/ios-8-screenshot-icons/

Better link here: http://www.macrumors.com/2014/01/31/healthbook-app-ios-8/

Jesus, Apple is going to beat Nintendo to the Health whatever thing. Bad news.

That's what blows my mind about this 'QoL' initiative from Nintendo. That's what Apple's next big thing is. Does Nintendo honestly think that they have what it takes to directly compete with Apple? Or Google? Or Samsung?

What the fuck are they thinking?

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Wrong. The PS3 version of TR sold 1.87M worldwide. And it was released much later than Infamous so it has not had as much time to trend upward.

You do realise you are comparing a game sold to 2011's install base to 2013's install base, right?

 

[Asd202]

And it continues to trend downward. Considering that Nintendo is already losing money, has one bullet left in the big gun (Smash), and the 2DS hasn't done anything to build sales momentum, this is very bad news for Nintendo.

I don't know what they can do. If they discount the hardware, then that's less money coming in. Cut the software prices, same thing. It will be at least a year before they could get something new out, and by then they'll also be launching their Health whatever initiative. Considering they're stretched to the limit with two platforms, and hopefully starting to gear up for whatever comes after the WiiU, I don't know how they can re-engage the market with anything near the effort and manpower needed.

Nintendo as a business confuses me.

Edit: http://www.macrumors.com/2014/03/13/ios-8-screenshot-icons/

Better link here: http://www.macrumors.com/2014/01/31/healthbook-app-ios-8/

Jesus, Apple is going to beat Nintendo to the Health whatever thing. Bad news.

Heh guess Nintendo is fucked in QoL business .

 

[Kinan]

Year Over Year

Family     2014    2013       Change     
MSFT      372      302      23.18%
SONY      382      309      23.62%
NINT      247      455     -45.71%

hehe, Microsoft and Sony are slicing that sweet Nintendo pie.

 

[Regiruler]

That's what blows my mind about this 'QoL' initiative from Nintendo. That's what Apple's next big thing is. Does Nintendo honestly think that they have what it takes to directly compete with Apple? Or Google? Or Samsung?

What the fuck are they thinking?

If they're on the initial tend they might actually have a shot. And for all we know the implementations could be completely different.

 

[liger05]

That's what blows my mind about this 'QoL' initiative from Nintendo. That's what Apple's next big thing is. Does Nintendo honestly think that they have what it takes to directly compete with Apple? Or Google? Or Samsung?

What the fuck are they thinking?

Knowing Nintendo they probably are not even looking at what others are doing and will just go ahead and release what they think will work. They operate in a bubble.

 

[Massa]

Ed. nm, misread.

 

[ec0ec0]

The question is, do the people playing these games actually find them to be bad?

I'm assuming they're not spending all this money on games they don't like.

This.

Many people LIKE those games, obviouly.

My sister has started playing candy crush and she plays everyday now. She has a lot of experience with tradicional gaming in the sense that she has been watching me play everything from nintendo since the n64 until now, she has also played those consoles or handles by herself, with me, or with others. Now she spends almost no time playing in comparation with before. But the thing is that, even after playing "normal" videogames for so long, she still likes candy crush.

Like maaany others, my sister likes it because she doesnt want to spend much time playing videogames. Now, i dont know if she is going to spend money on those games in the future, shes starting.

BUT, gaf, maybe theres hope. When my "little" brother tried candy crush... he stoped after 2 minutes or so he was like: "so, is this enough for +100 million people!? when is the next luigis mansion (for the 3ds) coming out??"

 

[molnizzle]

If they're on the initial tend they might actually have a shot. And for all we know the implementations could be completely different.

Doubtful. If people need to buy another device to get the full benefit of this health stuff, they'll go with the one that was designed for and natively syncs with their iOS/Android phone. Not the obscure Nintendo product.

 

[Mpl90]

If they're on the initial tend they might actually have a shot. And for all we know the implementations could be completely different.

Relying on Iwata words, they want to implement it in a different way compared to mobile (like Apple) and wearables, with the so-called non-wearable. This year we'll know more about it, and thus the biggest question of our recent times will find an answer: what the fuck is a non-wearable?

 

[Draff]

I thought Nintendo was focusing on non-wearable QoL applications?

 

[Nirolak]

Doubtful. If people need to buy another device to get the full benefit of this health stuff, they'll go with the one that was designed for and natively syncs with their iOS/Android phone. Not the obscure Nintendo product.

18+ million people are also already on Nike Fitness, who would presumably have been among Nintendo's most likely audience to buy this kind of fitness product: http://www.fastcompany.com/3016141/fast-feed/18-million-people-are-using-nike-to-track-their-fitness

 

[Guevara]

That's what blows my mind about this 'QoL' initiative from Nintendo. That's what Apple's next big thing is. Does Nintendo honestly think that they have what it takes to directly compete with Apple? Or Google? Or Samsung?

What the fuck are they thinking?

Yeah this kills me. Healthtech is the definition of a red ocean. And it's not just the big companies. A bunch of fast moving start-ups are circling the same territory and Nintendo just can't move that quick. Even if Nintendo came up with a brilliant idea it would be copied within months by a dozen or low- or no margin companies.

 

[Mutanthands]

If they're on the initial tend they might actually have a shot. And for all we know the implementations could be completely different.

I'll admit, we don't know what exactly Nintendo has planned. But my concern is do they have the resources to truly make this a worthwhile, competitive venture? They have trouble supporting more than one console at a time. When the 3DS was in trouble, they threw themselves into supporting it, leaving the last years of the Wii barren, and the first few months of the WiiU under-supported.

And now, they need to break into a new business for them, while at the same time supporting and re-invigorating their slumping core business? And compete with Apple, which is just on another level as a business?

I'm...not hopeful. Maybe they can do it. I just don't see it yet.

 

[molnizzle]

18+ million people are also already on Nike Fitness, who would presumably have been among Nintendo's most likely audience to buy this kind of fitness product: http://www.fastcompany.com/3016141/fast-feed/18-million-people-are-using-nike-to-track-their-fitness

Sure, but that device was designed to work natively with iOS and is heavily pushed by Apple. Half of the functionality of those things is tied to the Nike+ app for iPhone.

I highly doubt that Nintendo is planning on heavily integrating with the platforms that are responsible for their downward spiral — and even if they did, I have absolutely zero reason to believe that Nintendo's offering would be better than the competition that's currently out there. Not to mention what's coming in the near future.

 

[Majestad]

The Vita has the most ironic name for a video game system ever.

 

[speculawyer]

Here is a little color from an analyst report:

Video game makers, GameStop climb after NPD sales data
Shares of a number of video game makers are climbing after data indicated that U.S. video game sales were stronger than expected last month. WHAT'S NEW: Research firm NPD found that video game sales dropped 9% last month, versus the same period a year earlier, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson reported in a note to investors earlier today. Olson had expected software sales to tumble 29% last month, he stated. Take-Two Interactive (TTW) stood out as sales of its video games jumped 44% last month, while Electronic Arts (EA) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) trailed with declines of 45% and 33% respectively, NPD reported. Olson remains confident that the video game sector will start growing during the next holiday shopping season as more players update to the next generation of hardware consoles. Video game retailer GameStop (GME) should also get a boost from the holiday season, wrote Olson, who kept Overweight ratings on all the stocks named in this note. PRICE ACTION: In late morning trading, Electronic Arts rose 1.5% to $30.14, Take-Two Interactive climbed 1.8% to $21.25, Activision Blizzard added 1.2% to $21.10, and GameStop jumped 4% to $38.65.

 

[Nirolak]

Sure, but that device was designed to work natively with iOS and is heavily pushed by Apple. Half of the functionality of those things are tied to the Nike+ app for iPhone.

I highly doubt that Nintendo is planning on heavily integrating with the platforms that are responsible for their downward spiral — and even if they did, I have absolutely zero reason to believe that it would be better than the competition that's currently out there. Not to mention what's coming in the near future.

No, I was saying that in agreement with you.

Why would you buy a new product when you're already with Nike?

Similarly Fitbit got $43 million in funding and Jawbone got $250 million in funding with a $3.3 billion valuation so they're presumably having good success already, making Nintendo a 5th wheel in a market with four major competitors.

 

[kswiston]

Hardware did way better than I predicted, other than the PS4 which I was close on.

Also, is Nintendo particularly adept at advertising JRPGs? Because 200K (digital + retail) is pretty amazing for a new IP. Hopefully legs are good as well.

 

[Pociask]

Wow. I don't want to say this is the death of handheld gaming - but it's pretty clear that dedicated handheld gaming devices are just not competing today. I think that's the key issue here - Nintendo wants to pretend that their handhelds are in a different market segment than mobile games. But they're really, really not.

Assume people like to play games. They can play games at home, or away from home. Now, at home, consoles still offer a great benefit - they hook up to the tv, they're easier versus a tv - but they are expensive. And I have no doubt plenty of people who once bought PS2s and Wii's are going to be happy getting their home gaming in with an iPad or Galaxy or iPhone. But still, consoles offer that tv advantage.

What does a 3DS or a Vita offer over the phone/tablet that everyone is carrying with them on the go already? If better games at a higher price-point is the only answer, the market has seemingly rejected that proposition. It's looking like people don't really want to play great games away from home on a device dedicated for that - they'll just use their phone.

(Keep in mind, too, that many handhelds used to be played at home too - the original comfy couch gaming - and I expect for that use, they're getting killed by mobile/tablets from below and consoles from above).

 

[Mpl90]

According to their plan, Health is just one of the fields of their QoL platform, not the only one. Education is surely going to be another, don't know about what else. It'll be the first one, but not the only one.

The concern about their historic inability to support more than one platform at time is legitimate, but they're doing a big reorganisation, so much that they've stated next consoles will take big inspiration from iOS and Android: NN is the real platform, with devices sharing OS, functions, architectures and also games (sincerly, it's the direction I hoped Nintendo would have went, and I'm very glad to see it in the making)

 

[Zok310]

"Xbox One hardware revenue was over 10% greater than its nearest competitor"
...tbh I'm shocked we didn't get that

Key word; Revenue.
PS4 = $399
XB1 = $499
Therefor the revenue gap is $100 more in XB1's favor.

 

[Ridley327]

Hardware did way better than I predicted, other than the PS4 which I was close on.

Also, is Nintendo particularly adept at advertising JRPGs? Because 200K (digital + retail) is pretty amazing for a new IP. Hopefully legs are good as well.

I wouldn't say that they did something really well with BD specifically (though it did have a big advertising push in of itself), so much as they've been doing a great job of fostering the genre on the 3DS over the past year. I think that promotion they did with FE:A and SMT4 did wonders for raising awareness for the genre on the system.

 

[sflufan]

I'm awully curious about the hard number totals for Thief.

 

[shinra-bansho]

No, I was saying that in agreement with you.

Why would you buy a new product when you're already with Nike?

Similarly Fitbit got $43 million in funding and Jawbone got $250 million in funding with a $3.3 billion valuation so they're presumably having good success already, making Nintendo a 5th wheel in a market with four major competitors.

Even in the domestic Japanese market you have a relative giant in NTT DoCoMo entering the wearable tech sector and pushing into health with smart clothing in the making.

According to their plan, Health is just one of the fields of their QoL platform, not the only one. Education is surely going to be another, don't know about what else. It'll be the first one, but not the only one.

The concern about their historic inability to support more than one platform at time is legitimate, but they're doing a big reorganisation, so much that they've stated next consoles will take big inspiration from iOS and Android: NN is the real platform, with devices sharing OS, functions, architectures and also games (sincerly, it's the direction I hoped Nintendo would have went, and I'm very glad to see it in the making)

I think you put a lot of faith in what Iwata has said in the recent investor briefing... without him actually having done or shown anything towards this.