Support NeoGAF

[Woopah]

A revenue increase when they are railroading people towards a new more expensive tier in order to gain access to new games like COD isn't necessarily indicative of the total number of subscribers increasing.

I think they may well have seen an increase in subs (if they didn't then it's a disaster), but that 8% increase in spending won't all be from new or returning subscribers.

Game Pass had a price increase earlier this year. It's was much more than 8%.

Not just that, but I think services like GeForce Now would also be a part of that "non-mobile..

videogame subscription" group.

If the sector grew 8% and Gamepass is the primary driver of growth, then Gamepass growth would have to be much higher than 8%.

A 16% price increase alone wouldn't cut it I don't think. Not unless Gamepass accounts for something like 35%-50% of all non-mobile subscription spending.

So there would have to either be new users, or existing users moving on to higher tiers.

 

[Woopah]

Were not those sales based on retailers and not official?

Hardware sales are always based on retailers. Both the Switch and PS2 numbers are based on Circana getting numbers from some retailers and then extrapolating the rest.

 

[Deerock71]

Switch surpassing ps2 in the US is huge. I wonder if it will continue to sell after switch 2 launches. Ps2 had crazy longevity even after ps3 was out from what I remember.

There's no way it can without a price cut. Nintendo's stubborn, aren't they?

 

[Unknown?]

Hardware sales are always based on retailers. Both the Switch and PS2 numbers are based on Circana getting numbers from some retailers and then extrapolating the rest.

Sorry I meant the sales not sells. The discounts. I saw some switch discounts but it seemed to be retailer based and not by Nintendo.

 

[Woopah]

Sorry I meant the sales not sells. The discounts. I saw some switch discounts but it seemed to be retailer based and not by Nintendo.

Yes correct. Nintendo was way less aggressive with pricing than I think they needed to be to hit their hardware target. But it looks like retailers did the work for them.

 

[Muddy]

Only 12% difference given the price difference is impressive. Are you really trying to spin this as negative?

Did you expect anything else?

I mean let’s just ignore that Xbox is down 29% with a 250 dollar SKU and COD on Gamepass.

 

[Topher]

Did you expect anything else?

I mean let’s just ignore that Xbox is down 29% with a 250 dollar SKU and COD on Gamepass.

 

[AyraSutoraifu]

You see that word (Momentum) again? The Minions have their orders & they're out here trying to push this false Momentum/Potential narrative for next year. I've been calling it out for the last few weeks it's been a meeting & this is the angle they are going with pay attention lol.

'Picking up'
'Anytime now'
- Xbox since forever

 

[John Wick]

Game warring is unnecessary, I'm just positive by the good hold for Astro Bot this month. December after TGA win and Christmas shopping season is looking good.

Remember when people were saying it wasn't selling? People are gonna be shocked 1 year from launch.

 

[PixelatedBeast]

Good lord, just imagine if Microsoft didnt spend 80 billion on games they were already going to get from Activision and Bethesda. I dont care how many gamepass subs they're getting, in hindsight they really nerfed themselves.

 

[SweetTooth]

I would never expected this much downfall for Xbox at the beginning of this gen, Im not O onQ123 after all

 

[mayham2199]

Good lord, just imagine if Microsoft didnt spend 80 billion on games they were already going to get from Activision and Bethesda. I dont care how many gamepass subs they're getting, in hindsight they really nerfed themselves.

I don't even think it was dumb to do what they did it just didn't work out. I actually thought Game pass and buying these companies was a good idea but not every good idea works out the way you want it to. I thought Gamepass would be great then I tried it and realized this ain't for me and moved on. I go back and forth on if I even want to keep PS+ extra as I've barely used it. I've played 2 games on it so far that I could have got for cheaper by just waiting for them to go on sale.

Might end up playing two more which will just barely make it worth it at that point.

 

[StereoVsn]

"PlayStation 5 Pro accounted for 19% of total PlayStation 5 units sold in the month and 28% of dollars. Launch month dollar sales of PlayStation 5 Pro were more than 50% higher than the November 2016 launch month sales of PlayStation 4 Pro, while units were 12% lower. "

How? It didn't sell out.

To be fair though, unit sales were 12% lower vs PS4 Pro. Revenue of course was higher even accounting for inflation due to high cost.

It’s going to be really interesting to see the Pro sales trajectory over the next few months.

 

[onQ123]

Good lord, just imagine if Microsoft didnt spend 80 billion on games they were already going to get from Activision and Bethesda. I dont care how many gamepass subs they're getting, in hindsight they really nerfed themselves.

That move wasn't for Xbox Consoles it's for when the hardware doesn't matter but also Xbox was at risk of losing Call Of Duty & some other third party games because of the low return on investment even to the point that Activision asked for a bigger cut to keep Call of Duty on Xbox.

 

[mayham2199]

That move wasn't for Xbox Consoles it's for when the hardware doesn't matter but also Xbox was at risk of losing Call Of Duty & some other third party games because of the low return on investment even to the point that Activision asked for a bigger cut to keep Call of Duty on Xbox.

Didn't ABK make PS also give them a bigger cut?

 

[Klayzer]

Did you expect anything else?

I mean let’s just ignore that Xbox is down 29% with a 250 dollar SKU and COD on Gamepass.

On top of last year's terrible Xbox November numbers.

 

[Topher]

To be fair though, unit sales were 12% lower vs PS4 Pro. Revenue of course was higher even accounting for inflation due to high cost.

It’s going to be really interesting to see the Pro sales trajectory over the next few months.

Only 12% lower is still impressive considering the price difference. Either way, I was mocking this notion that Pro was a flop because it didn't sell out. Thus far, I'd say that is hardly the case.

You are right though. Long term results remain to be seen.

 

[onQ123]

Didn't ABK make PS also give them a bigger cut?

Not that I know of

 

[Topher]

Didn't ABK make PS also give them a bigger cut?

Yes

Sony takes 'discounted margin' on Call of Duty sales and earnings on PlayStation

Sony takes a 'discounted margin' on Call of Duty sales/earnings on PlayStation, gives Activision larger revenue cut, UK regulators at the CMA have found.

www.tweaktown.com

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Good lord, just imagine if Microsoft didnt spend 80 billion on games they were already going to get from Activision and Bethesda. I dont care how many gamepass subs they're getting, in hindsight they really nerfed themselves.

The original plan was to take CoD exclusive and destroy Sony but for some reason even after government regulators stepped in and were like "lolno" and torpedoed that plan they decided to complete the acquisition anyways

 

[AyraSutoraifu]

How's Colt doing?

 

[onQ123]

Yes

Sony takes 'discounted margin' on Call of Duty sales and earnings on PlayStation

Sony takes a 'discounted margin' on Call of Duty sales/earnings on PlayStation, gives Activision larger revenue cut, UK regulators at the CMA have found.

www.tweaktown.com

That looks different from Activision asking for a bigger cut.

 

[Topher]

That looks different from Activision asking for a bigger cut.

It was probably negotiated with the marketing deal but that’s what it is.

 

[onQ123]

It was probably negotiated with the marketing deal but that’s what it is.

That's different from demanding that Xbox give a bigger cut or they would pull Call Of Duty .

But this is exactly why MS knew it was time to stock up on IPs because the less important consoles become the more big publishers will act this way. And at some point they will try to sell directly to the customers.

 

[Topher]

That's different from demanding that Xbox give a bigger cut or they would pull Call Of Duty .

But this is exactly why MS knew it was time to stock up on IPs because the less important consoles become the more big publishers will act this way. And at some point they will try to sell directly to the customers.

Yes, that is different. I was just answering his question about PS and COD.

 

[Klayzer]

That's different from demanding that Xbox give a bigger cut or they would pull Call Of Duty .

But this is exactly why MS knew it was time to stock up on IPs because the less important consoles become the more big publishers will act this way. And at some point they will try to sell directly to the customers.

You just know, Microsoft will be looking for an even larger cut, when this contract is up.

I wonder if Sony will play hardball with negotiations, next time around.

 

[SneakersSO]

They wouldn't know the exact reason per say, but they could look at the growth figures reported to them for each service and see:

1. The $ growth in Gamepass was a large % of the $ growth across all services. Hence knowing that Gamepass was the primary driver of growth
2. The % increase in Gamepass revenue being higher since COD came out, telling that that it is likely that game is having an effect

On top of that, Circana does conduct monthly market research with players. So some of that data could be informing Matt's statement as well.

Could that data be informing it? To a degree, sure, but it'll never be enough to give you a full picture. And even with CoD being the primary driver of growth, that doesn't change the fact that all that statement really says is that of the 8% of growth there was in the sector, the largest slice of the pie was from GP/CoD. So that could very well mean 2%-3% of the overall 8%, or 7% of the overall 8%.

Regardless, it doesn't change the basics you can measure GP by - the CoD tier, per user is bringing in > 15% more revenue per user. So even if every service was flat, which they weren't, and then CoD GP which is now bringing in 16% more revenue, that means that in order for it to only have grown 8%, it means its underperforming by some degree. If you add in the growth from the other service providers, this becomes more obvious.

If the sector grew 8% and Gamepass is the primary driver of growth, then Gamepass growth would have to be much higher than 8%.

A 16% price increase alone wouldn't cut it I don't think. Not unless Gamepass accounts for something like 35%-50% of all non-mobile subscription spending.

So there would have to either be new users, or existing users moving on to higher tiers.

This is simply not how it works. Only 'primary driver of growth' means is that they are the majority of growth amongst all the other subscription services in that sector. EA Play, GeForce Now, PSN, NO. All of them had a degree of growth. No, in order for it to hit 8%, GP wouldn't have needed to be much higher than 8%. In fact, again, given how much more per user CoD GP is bringing it, it tells you the growth for it is either flat or even potentially negative depending just how much of the pie they were in the overall sector, because like I said - the other subscription services also had growth.

 

[H-I-M]

My predictions for November 2025 :
1. Switch 2
2. PS5
3. Switch
4. Xbox Series

Can't wait for the meltdowns

 

[SneakersSO]

My predictions for November 2025 :
1. Switch 2
2. PS5
3. Switch
4. Xbox Series

Can't wait for the meltdowns

Easiest prediction i've ever seen lol

 

[jm89]

My predictions for November 2025 :
1. Switch 2
2. PS5
3. Switch
4. Xbox Series

Can't wait for the meltdowns

Gta6 effect could be interesting on ps5 sales alongside a big price cut. It's gonna be the biggest launch this generation.

 

[Woopah]

Could that data be informing it? To a degree, sure, but it'll never be enough to give you a full picture. And even with CoD being the primary driver of growth, that doesn't change the fact that all that statement really says is that of the 8% of growth there was in the sector, the largest slice of the pie was from GP/CoD. So that could very well mean 2%-3% of the overall 8%, or 7% of the overall 8%.

Regardless, it doesn't change the basics you can measure GP by - the CoD tier, per user is bringing in > 15% more revenue per user. So even if every service was flat, which they weren't, and then CoD GP which is now bringing in 16% more revenue, that means that in order for it to only have grown 8%, it means its underperforming by some degree. If you add in the growth from the other service providers, this becomes more obvious.

This is simply not how it works. Only 'primary driver of growth' means is that they are the majority of growth amongst all the other subscription services in that sector. EA Play, GeForce Now, PSN, NO. All of them had a degree of growth. No, in order for it to hit 8%, GP wouldn't have needed to be much higher than 8%. In fact, again, given how much more per user CoD GP is bringing it, it tells you the growth for it is either flat or even potentially negative depending just how much of the pie they were in the overall sector, because like I said - the other subscription services also had growth.

I guess it depends on what we by primary. I'm reading it as Gamepass accounting for a significant part of that 8% growth, and growing faster than the other services.

So if, say, Gamepass accounts for 4% points of that growth, then it's growth would have to be more than 8%. Since it's unlikely that Gamepass accounts for 50% of the overall subscription spending.

And to be clear I'm talking in revenue here, not number of users.

Does what I say make sense?

 

[Synastry]

My predictions for November 2025 :
1. Switch 2
2. PS5
3. Switch
4. Xbox Series

Can't wait for the meltdowns

Not if GTA6 is set for a September or November 2025 release.

 

[XXL]

How's Colt doing?

 

[EN250]

Not that I know of

They had a deal where Acti got a bigger cut or the other way around, Sony getting less than the standard 30% wasn't it?

Thing is, look at Xbox trajectory, that money spent on Acti+Zenimax and the others wasn't a good deal if it means Xbox has to go extinct, sure MS gaming or whatever will reap from the success of COD and all the mobile stuff making bank, but nothing of that is helping the Xbox brand at all to this day and I'm not seeing anything changing when even freaking COD was unable to help with sales

 

[mckmas8808]

The product that nobody wants...

 

[Venom Snake]

He's fighting for his life: https://www.neogaf.com/threads/circ...ps2s-lifetime-sales-in-the-u-s-46-6m.1678652/

 

[Unknown?]

My predictions for November 2025 :
1. Switch 2
2. PS5
3. Switch
4. Xbox Series

Can't wait for the meltdowns

This time last gen(2019)
people were bragging about Switch taking over PS4 despite it being old and Switch being new. It's silly.

December 2027
PS6
Switch 2
Meta Quest 4

 

[mckmas8808]

Xbox prob struggling to hit a million in December at this rate.

I see them sell 800k-850k in December.

 

[Plague Doctor]

I am calling shennigans on this shit. I was told everything is an xbox now.

Why aren't we counting smart refrigerators with monitor displays as an xbox?

Fuck this list!

 

[mckmas8808]

To be fair though, unit sales were 12% lower vs PS4 Pro. Revenue of course was higher even accounting for inflation due to high cost.

It’s going to be really interesting to see the Pro sales trajectory over the next few months.

Pretty good for a product that the video "media" said no one wanted.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Should be clear to all now why Microsoft is going fully third party. "No red lines" yet "no decisions made on Halo" Yeah right. Halo won't survive unless it's on playstation. Like all the rest of their games. That's why Doom is day 1. That's why Outer Worlds is day 1.

Only reason Avowed and Indy weren't day 1 is because they were too far along in development. They will both be on PS5.

I suspect Gears/Halo/Fable/PD are all day and date on PS5. Microsoft's acquisitions and simultaneous hardware failures put them in a really strange position. Obviously they can still be wildly successful, they just need to soft-exit the hardware market, which is what they are doing.

 

[SneakersSO]

I suspect Gears/Halo/Fable/PD are all day and date on PS5. Microsoft's acquisitions and simultaneous hardware failures put them in a really strange position. Obviously they can still be wildly successful, they just need to soft-exit the hardware market, which is what they are doing.

Fable won't, merely cause its so late and overbudget. That said, everything is coming to PS. All of the in-dev portfolio. Switch 2 as well, in most cases.

 

[Heisenberg007]

If the sector grew 8% and Gamepass is the primary driver of growth, then Gamepass growth would have to be much higher than 8%.

A 16% price increase alone wouldn't cut it I don't think. Not unless Gamepass accounts for something like 35%-50% of all non-mobile subscription spending.

So there would have to either be new users, or existing users moving on to higher tiers.

I don't think that premise is correct.

• First, it assumes that other subs revenue decreased in this period. We don't have any evidence of that.
• Second, as I mentioned earlier, the cost of Game Pass increased by 16% YoY. The revenue, however, only increased by 8%. If we assume that Game Pass users didn't increase or decrease, the revenue should have also been up by 16% YoY - in line with the price increase. But that didn't happen. It is clear that Game Pass lost a lot of subscribers in this YoY period - which is probably why Microsoft hasn't been sharing its numbers since Jan. 2022.

 

[Insanemaelstrom]

I don't think that premise is correct.

• First, it assumes that other subs revenue decreased in this period. We don't have any evidence of that.
• Second, as I mentioned earlier, the cost of Game Pass increased by 16% YoY. The revenue, however, only increased by 8%. If we assume that Game Pass users didn't increase or decrease, the revenue should have also been up by 16% YoY - in line with the price increase. But that didn't happen. It is clear that Game Pass lost a lot of subscribers in this YoY period - which is probably why Microsoft hasn't been sharing its numbers since Jan. 2022.

1. First would be valid only assuming other subs were consistent( no growth or decline). Obviously that isn't the case.
2. The cost of gamepass did increase but again assuming other subs were stable without growth, gp could be responsible for the 8% growth in revenue due to its 16% growth( driven by increase in sub price).

Personally the only conclusion I can draw is that:
1. Gamepass didn't add any significant amount of new subscribers and its growth was entirely due to price increase along with other subs remaining stable with no growth.
2. The other subs had minor growth, gamepass did grow in revenue due to the price increase but actually lost subscribers.

Could be wrong, but that is the conclusion I am drawing from the data we have.

 

[Woopah]

I don't think that premise is correct.

• First, it assumes that other subs revenue decreased in this period. We don't have any evidence of that.
• Second, as I mentioned earlier, the cost of Game Pass increased by 16% YoY. The revenue, however, only increased by 8%. If we assume that Game Pass users didn't increase or decrease, the revenue should have also been up by 16% YoY - in line with the price increase. But that didn't happen. It is clear that Game Pass lost a lot of subscribers in this YoY period - which is probably why Microsoft hasn't been sharing its numbers since Jan. 2022.

Because you are mixing different figures. The 16% is for Gamepass price, the 8% is for revenue for all services (as you yourself say).

If Gamepass had gone up 16% in price but only 8% in revenue, then yes you would be right and there would have to be a decrease in users. But that's not what the data is.

Gamepass could have grown 20%, and all the other services could have grown too but in smaller amounts, and that could give an 8% growth in the sector.

Think about it this way. Last year, PS5 was the primary driver of growth in the hardware sector. That does not mean that the growth % for PS5 was exactly the same as the growth % for the hardware sector. The PS5 growth % was higher than the hardware sector.

Circana will kno the Gamepass growth rates since the price increase. And they are specifying that, for the last two months, growth in the non-mobile subscription sector is primarily driven by COD on Gamepass, not by Gamepass price increase.

 

[jm89]

*in eastern poland

*in the mind of a someone in eastern poland

 

[jm89]

Takes like these are why I don't feel bad for the Xbox fanboys crying at the state of console sales. They choose to be stupid, ignorant, idiotically optimistic and have to make up narratives to do so.

Where exactly is PS5 Pro momentum waning? Everywhere I've seen they're up vs. PS4 Pro. Even if it does start waning soon (I think it will later Q1 next year), did you forget the base PS5 still exists? In what world in all five billion timelines does Xbox suddenly see a major surge of sales due to 1P games that we 1: don't even know the state of quality of (Avowed looks mediocre, Fable could turn out to be only average, same with South of Midnight etc.) and, 2: ARE EITHER ON STEAM DAY 1 OR WILL BE ON PS5 DAY 1!?

Seriously, the amount of delusion from that camp is so insane it's actually annoying. They're going through a trauma crisis.



"High demand" relative to an Xbox and relative to where demand evidently was earlier when sales were even lower.

That's why terms like "(X system) is in high demand" mean nothing without having reference data/numbers behind them. Series X's "high demand" still wasn't enough to help Xbox get that much beyond 400K for the month of November in its strongest market, going by sales estimates others have been posting.

Hope in xbox hardware finally taking off is what makes this more entertaining.

 

[jm89]

Sub 3m

 

[TheGodfather07]

Sub 3m

Earlier in the year I said it would be below 5m for the whole year and xbox fans left the laughing emoji on my comment. Well look how it turned out.

 

[TheDarkPhantom]

Astro moving up the rankings warms the cockles of my heart, GOTY deserves all the success in the world. Helldivers 2 being in the top 3 for the year is crazy, SONY must be over the moon by it's success. Pro at 1/5 of overall PS5 sales for the month = win.