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Circana December 2024: #1 Black Ops 6 #2 Madden #3 College Football #14 Indiana Jones ; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, NSW #2 Units + Rev

Sooner

Member
indiana jones 14th?
giphy.gif

It hasn't released on its main platform yet.
 
Is 30-35M good enough though?
Nadella had set a target of 100M subs by 2027 and if I'm not mistaken, it was reported recently that Nadella was even contemplating shutting down Xbox entirely back in 2021.

COD didn't really grow GP much either, btw.
100 million would make it a game changer for industry.

Too many people would subscribe to it and will put a pressure on game sales a lot. Will lead to full consolidation with Sony / Nintendo following suite.

Apocalyptic.

Current setup is fine. I get to enjoy gamepass while others can enjoy PS/ Nintendo as is while complaining about gamepass.

Win win situation I say.
 
We're witnessing the end of Xbox as we know it and that will send shockwaves through the industry. And no even if Indiana Jones had launched on PlayStation it still wouldn't have sold. It was a mistake to make a 1st person Indiana Jones games after the success of Tomb Raider and Uncharted. You narrow down the interest of the game far too much, which is another problem developers are actually making.

Microsoft as a third party is going to have some big success this year and beyond.

Xbox as a platform is near enough dead now though.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Is 30-35M good enough though?
Nadella had set a target of 100M subs by 2027 and if I'm not mistaken, it was reported recently that Nadella was even contemplating shutting down Xbox entirely back in 2021.

COD didn't really grow GP much either, btw.

100 million by 2030 and he thinks 30-35 million in 2025 with decline hardware sales is going to get that done or that that's an acceptable number and there won't be consequences? There are revenue goals associated with that number.

By 2030, you'd want GamePass to be at least 25 dollars a month. That's 2.5 billion in revenue per month and 30 billion per year... That's how you "recoup" the investment in ABK and Zenimax.

Microsoft is now in a new mode of operating income as a focus for Xbox. The biggest open secret in gaming is that Xbox is dead. The only way to get profit out of Xbox now is to put games on systems that sell, i.e. PlayStation and Switch and lower the cost of GamePass as much as possible, while increasinging the price. I guarantee the price of GamePass goes up again before the next CoD launches.
 
The biggest open secret in gaming is that Xbox is dead. The only way to get profit out of Xbox now is to put games on systems that sell, i.e. PlayStation and Switch and lower the cost of GamePass as much as possible, while increasinging the price. I guarantee the price of GamePass goes up again before the next CoD launches.

The mass market sees this too, hence the utter collapse of hardware sales in 2024.

Globally, they’ll struggle to sell 3m units this year.
 
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Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Microsoft as a third party is going to have some big success this year and beyond.

Xbox as a platform is near enough dead now though.

I don't see much long term success.

I think Halo CE remake or Halo Master Chief Collection will sell well. Maybe Gears will do okay, but after that? I think they won't have much success outside of what Activision was doing. A lot of these traditional Xbox studios and franchises will get shuttered as a result.
 
I don't see much long term success.

I think Halo CE remake or Halo Master Chief Collection will sell well. Maybe Gears will do okay, but after that? I think they won't have much success outside of what Activision was doing. A lot of these traditional Xbox studios and franchises will get shuttered as a result.

Obviously ABK will be a big chunk of that, especially if COD comes to Switch 2.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Obviously ABK will be a big chunk of that, especially if COD comes to Switch 2.

ABK was already in decline before Microsoft bought them.

You start getting some more competent competition to CoD and now even ABK is in trouble financially.

The next Battlefield is going to get serious investment. Hopefully, Blundell is working on SOCOM for Sony and also getting serious investment.

I don't see ABK being worth half of what Microsoft bought it for by 2035 and Nadella is going to keep timing ABK/Zenimax/MGS every year to get costs down.
 
The biggest open secret in gaming is that Xbox is dead. The only way to get profit out of Xbox now is to put games on systems that sell, i.e. PlayStation and Switch and lower the cost of GamePass as much as possible, while increasinging the price. I guarantee the price of GamePass goes up again before the next CoD launches.
And when the price goes up, subs will go down.

Did anyone in that stupid three-trillion-dollar company ever have any insight into thinking that a Netflix-like service for games would take off in record numbers? I am very glad that it's stagnating; the last thing this industry needs is this kind of service Microsoft is throwing to try to subvert the traditional buying and selling of games, which were going fine for decades until that disaster hit the market. I can't wait to see Game Pass discontinue by the time PS6 comes out.
 

onQ123

Gold Member
For December 2023 I have

PS5: 1520K
NSW: 1240K
XBS: 1120K

A pure percentage drop in units would mean this for December 2024 (not adjusting for price differences)

PS5: 1250K
NSW: 770K
XBS: 690K

All consoles should be a little higher due to costing less versus last year, just waiting to see what numbers Welfare comes up with.
PS5 price was a lot lower for most of the month but PS5 Pro is also in the mix so it's going to be hard to get the numbers out of the information that we have right now lol
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Where is the cutoff? like after the 10th is all low sales?

ASTROGOAT still hanging with the big sellers, it deserves all the sales and more 🙏

I'm guessing Astro Bot is between 2.5 and 3 million units worldwide right now. With some proper sales and actual advertising, it should be able to have the legs to sell 7 million units pretty comfortably. With a real push and the right pricing I think it could have hit 10 million units.

Have you seen any GOTY commercials for Astro Bot? They left it sold out at retail for much of December, probably so they could push digital sales ratios, but probably at the expense of total sales.
 

SweetTooth

Gold Member
For December 2023 I have

PS5: 1520K
NSW: 1240K
XBS: 1120K

A pure percentage drop in units would mean this for December 2024 (not adjusting for price differences)

PS5: 1250K
NSW: 770K
XBS: 690K

All consoles should be a little higher due to costing less versus last year, just waiting to see what numbers Welfare comes up with.

Playstation Domination! Also:

PlayStation 5 now ranks 3rd in lifetime hardware dollar sales in U.S. history

Playstation 5 in its midlife has become the most successful PS in US history! And we had threads last week all projecting doom and gloom over Sony.

Wake up 😭 🤣
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
And when the price goes up, subs will go down.

Did anyone in that stupid three-trillion-dollar company ever have any insight into thinking that a Netflix-like service for games would take off in record numbers? I am very glad that it's stagnating; the last thing this industry needs is this kind of service Microsoft is throwing to try to subvert the traditional buying and selling of games, which were going fine for decades until that disaster hit the market. I can't wait to see Game Pass discontinue by the time PS6 comes out.

When the pandemic happened they saw dollar signs in their eyes like in old timey cartoons. Can you imagine 30 billion a year in revenue? That's like triple what Xbox was making across the board in 2019.

They felt like they could take over the industry and publishers would be forced to put their games on GamePass and consumers would be forced to pay increased prices for the service, because games outside of GamePass would be significantly more expensive and make less sense.

Netflix's model destroyed revenue in TV & Movies, of course Netflix profited at the center of it, but everyone else has suffered tremendously. Microsoft wanted to do the same and despite seeing what Netflix did to the industry, people cheered on GamePass and Microsoft's consolidation attempts to strengthen GamePass... honestly wild.
 

jm89

Member
On a side note looks like gbiz aren't going to bother with uk and europe reports for december. They'd normally release the reports by now for december.

Bad move imo if they don't do them going forward at all, would have generated clicks for them.
 
PS5 dominating sales in the US and also in accessories, it is already the third console that has generated the most income and it is only 4 years old, it is normal for Switch to drop so much ... it is 8 years old, Xbox is a total debacle, the only thing they have achieved after spending 70,000 million on ABK is to sink the console by selling almost half less and that Sony takes 80-90% of COD sales for its console (Depending on territories), Indiana Jones another sales disaster, it was clear that despite many damage control threads that were made the game had sold little, even Astrobot surpassed it.
It's funny these days the PS doomed threads when real numbers come out.
 

Three

Member
On a side note looks like gbiz aren't going to bother with uk and europe reports for december. They'd normally release the reports by now for december.

Bad move imo if they don't do them going forward at all, would have generated clicks for them.
They were bought by IGN so it's likely IGN calling the shots now.
 
When the pandemic happened they saw dollar signs in their eyes like in old timey cartoons. Can you imagine 30 billion a year in revenue? That's like triple what Xbox was making across the board in 2019.

They felt like they could take over the industry and publishers would be forced to put their games on GamePass and consumers would be forced to pay increased prices for the service, because games outside of GamePass would be significantly more expensive and make less sense.

Netflix's model destroyed revenue in TV & Movies, of course Netflix profited at the center of it, but everyone else has suffered tremendously. Microsoft wanted to do the same and despite seeing what Netflix did to the industry, people cheered on GamePass and Microsoft's consolidation attempts to strengthen GamePass... honestly wild.
True to the motherf'ing teeth. While it may sound great on paper, Netflix's streaming service unknowingly at the time paved the road to destroying the TV and Movie industry, something viewers probably didn't realize until a few years ago with the sheer lack of original IP. An original film that may have flopped at the box office could have been able to break even or even produce a profit when the DVD/Blu-Ray copies hit the market a few months later. Netflix, and the rise of other streaming services, however, destroyed that additional profit hope with a sledgehammer to both kneecaps. As a result, new original films or TV shows ae nearly non-existent and we're getting nothing but remakes, sequels/prequels, and other such stuff because movie and tv studios are super risky from a potential flop.

It's nice to know that, despite all odds, the gaming industry is not heading in this same direction. Gamers are increasingly preferring to buy and/or sell their games instead of going with a streaming service like Game Pass. I'm only subscribed to PlayStation's lowest tier on PS Plus and I have no complains.
 
Welfare's December Estimates

PS5: 1390K
NSW: 840K
XBS: 540K

PS5 and Switch have a lower average SKU versus last December so unit drops were softer than 18% and 38% respectively, but apparently Xbox Series had a much higher average SKU (had massive price cuts last December) so it dropped around 50% in units.

Estimations for 2024

MonthPS5XBSNSW
January425,000210,000255,000
February410,000195,000225,000
March525,000215,000240,000
April240,000110,000150,000
May220,000115,000145,000
June330,000165,000190,000
July370,000250,000155,000
August230,000135,000125,000
September280,000150,000165,000
October290,000175,000140,000
November1,220,00430,000620,000
December1,390,000540,000840,000
Total5,930,0002,690,0003,250,000
Lifetime24,590,00016,240,00047,440,000

Full Estimations for 2023

MonthPS5XBSNSW
January430,000200,000280,000
February560,000240,000290,000
March660,000280,000340,000
April340,000170,000420,000
May260,000160,000450,000
June430,000240,000350,000
July270,000160,000240,000
August390,000210,000200,000
September480,000300,000200,000
October360,000200,000210,000
November1,050,000580,000570,000
December1,520,0001,110,0001,230,000
Total6,760,0003,850,0004,780,000
Lifetime18,660,00013,550,00044,190,000
 
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Jaybe

Member
All consoles should be a little higher due to costing less versus last year (especially PS5 with the cheaper digital edition selling a large amount) just waiting to see what numbers Welfare comes up with.

How was Xbox priced lower this holiday season? It was barely on sale vs the prior year. Plus more people are buying the X version vs S now.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
True to the motherf'ing teeth. While it may sound great on paper, Netflix's streaming service unknowingly at the time paved the road to destroying the TV and Movie industry, something viewers probably didn't realize until a few years ago with the sheer lack of original IP. An original film that may have flopped at the box office could have been able to break even or even produce a profit when the DVD/Blu-Ray copies hit the market a few months later. Netflix, and the rise of other streaming services, however, destroyed that additional profit hope with a sledgehammer to both kneecaps. As a result, new original films or TV shows ae nearly non-existent and we're getting nothing but remakes, sequels/prequels, and other such stuff because movie and tv studios are super risky from a potential flop.

It's nice to know that, despite all odds, the gaming industry is not heading in this same direction. Gamers are increasingly preferring to buy and/or sell their games instead of going with a streaming service like Game Pass. I'm only subscribed to PlayStation's lowest tier on PS Plus and I have no complains.

But it was heading in that direction, championed by Gaming Media.

The key figure who stopped the downfall of gaming... Jim Ryan... who resisted massive pressure to match GamePass, who repositioned PS+ as a sustainable complementary service rather than a destructive one.

Nothing will convince me more than the internet isn't real than Jim Ryan who was probably the most successful and meaningful CEO in gaming history. Had Jim Ryan simply taken a left when he took a right, gaming would be stuck in subscription services and my guess is Steam and Nintendo would have followed suit.
 

Unknown?

Member
Credit: Welfare from InstallBase

QXLYwKC.jpeg



State of the market

December 2024 projected U.S. consumer spending on video game hardware, content and accessories declined 8.9% when compared to a year ago, to $7.5B. Spending during the 2024 year fell 1.1% compared to 2023, to $58.7B. December video game content spending fell 5% when compared to a year ago, to $5.8B. A 21% drop in content spending on console combined with a 1% decline in mobile offset 13% growth in the PC, Cloud & Non-Console VR segment and an 11% increase in non-mobile subscriptions.

Video game content spending during the 2024 year increased by 2%, to $50.6B. This is the 2nd highest total for video game content spending in U.S. history, trailing only 2021’s $52.0 billion. 2024 content spending growth across the mobile, non-mobile subscription and the PC, cloud and non-console VR segments offset an 11% dip in spending on video game content for console platforms.

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Hardware

December video game hardware spending dropped 29% vs YA, to $1.1B. Spending on PlayStation 5 hardware fell 18% when compared to Dec 2023, with Xbox Series and Switch each declining by 38%. Annual spending on video game hardware finished 25% lower than 2023, at $4.9B.

PlayStation 5 finished as December’s best-selling hardware platform in both units and dollars, with Switch ranking 2nd across both measures. For the 2024 year, Xbox Series ranked #2 in hardware spending, while Switch placed 2nd in unit sales. PlayStation 5 led 2024 in both.

49% of PlayStation 5 and 43% of Xbox Series hardware units sold in December did not include a physical disc drive. For the 2024 year, all-digital editions comprised 45% of all PlayStation 5 units sold during the year, and 44% of Xbox Series.

PlayStation 5 now ranks 3rd in lifetime hardware dollar sales in U.S. history, trailing only Switch and Xbox 360. The platform currently ranks 11th in lifetime unit sales.

Software

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 finished as both the best-selling premium video game of December and the 2024 year. Call of Duty was the best-selling video game franchise in U.S. full game dollar sales (excluding add-on content) for a record 16th consecutive year.

EA Sports College Football 25 finished as the #2 best-selling game of 2024, while ranking 1st on Xbox platforms. EA Sports College Football 25 is the best-selling sports video game in U.S. history (full game dollar sales, excluding add-on content).

Indiana Jones and the Great Circle was December’s only new release to rank among the top 20 best-sellers of the month. It was 14th overall on the December sales chart, while placing 4th on Xbox platforms.

Mobile

Sensor Tower: Top 10 mobile games by U.S. consumer spend in December and rank change vs Nov: MONOPOLY GO!, Roblox (+1), Royal Match (-1), Last War: Survival (+1), Candy Crush Saga (-1), Pokémon TCG Pocket, Whiteout Survival, Township, Coin Master, and Call of Duty: Mobile (+5).

“Roblox retook the #2 spot on the top 10 games by US mobile consumer spend for the first time since August,” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower. “Roblox had a great December, with consumer spend up 24% over November." “Another game that saw impressive growth in the last month of 2024 was Call of Duty: Mobile, which grew US consumer spend by 20% with the beginning of Season 11: Winter War 2,” said Aune.

Accessories

December consumer spending on Accessories was flat compared to a year ago, at $671 million, and finished the year 6% higher than 2023 ($3.2 billion). Headset and Headphone spending finished 2024 5% higher than 2023, at $951 million. PlayStation Portal was the best-selling accessory in consumer spending during both December and the 2024 year. The PS5 DualSense Wireless Controller Midnight Black led both time periods in accessory units sold.

Multiplatform Software Charts

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Playstation Software for December

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Xbox Software for December

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Nintendo Software for December

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Multiplatform 2024

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Playstation Software 2024

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Xbox Software 2024

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Nintendo Software 2024

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Playstation Monthly Active User Engagement

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Xbox Monthly Active User Engagement

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Steam Monthly Active User Engagement

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Rankings
Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
Revenue: PS5 > NSW > XBS

Unit Estimates
PS5: 1390K
NSW: 840K
XBS: 540K
1390k for PS5 is great for December! Xbox doing 540k in December is horrible. We are looking at Wii 2010/11 levels of collapse. It only did 200k in EU for the year.

Good to see Sonic x Shadow ranking so highly too!
 

Thick Thighs Save Lives

NeoGAF's Physical Games Advocate Extraordinaire
I think Mat meant to say 'Gran Turismo 7 now ranks 1st in dollars and 5th in units among all Gran Turismo franchise releases.' But yeah, GT7 is performing very well in the US (I think in Europe it's doing even better if we take into account the latest PSN download charts).


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