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[Dargor]

Stop wondering where people work. Leave them alone. You have questions? I'm right here.

Who do you work for, Mat? If thats even your real name...

Spoiler

lol people should really stop worrying about the sources for video games sales, seriously

edit: Top of the page, gotta make this worth it. I think this year we'll have them numbers bounce back up, since we'll be having Nintendo back on the market with a possibly succesful console and also tons of awesome games being released. Yay!

 

[MatPiscatella]

Rex - You're right I can't discuss. Only thing I'd say is that we work very hard to make sure all partners are comfortable and confident in the reporting. Over time, we expect more participants and more information to be added to the rankings.

Thanks Mat for the clarification and your presence here

No problem and thanks for the thanks!

 

[Exploratory]

Ghost Recon is going to absolutely slay next month.

The tears will be glorious

 

[KawabataSan]

You have questions? I'm right here.

How do you think new services such as Xbox Games Pass and PlayStation Now (With PS4 games) will affect spend on full priced standalone packaged/digital games?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Sony - Digital sales of participating 3rd party publishers are included in both the total spend calculation as well as the individual title rankings. Digital sales of 1st party published games are included in the total spend calculation but removed from the individual title rankings.

That seem so strange that Sony would want that info remove lol .
When it comes to the chart there games will always be at a disadvantage since it revenue base .

 

[RexNovis]

That seem so strange that Sony would want that info remove lol .
When it comes to the chart there games will always be at a disadvantage since it revenue base .

Yea it's bizarre. I don't understand what they gain by making such a demand.

 

[Tonyx]

Nioh is faring well. Well deserved!

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Yea it's bizarre. I don't understand what they gain by making such a demand.

So even more strange, does that mean MS and Nintendo are doing the same?

 

[Somnia]

Ghost Recon is going to absolutely slay next month.

The tears will be glorious

I'm more amazed at people on this board being shocked it's selling well in every country including Japan. People under estimate Ubisoft and what they make for the mass market.

 

[mckmas8808]

Well, hardware pricing causing less revenue isn't too odd, but the hardware units going down suggests we're in the decline phase of the generation, and is less good. That's probably not too surprising though, given a generation is only likely to last ~6 years total and we're at year 3.

The software comp is against... it's not astonishing software, but it's only 14% down there, and arguably had bigger releases: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1196083

If you were hoping for an extended generation though, that's probably not likely.

Or it's just a down month and the Switch will make things right in March and going forward.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Yea it's bizarre. I don't understand what they gain by making such a demand.

Yep .
They don't seem to care so guess there is nothing that can be done .

So even more strange, does that mean MS and Nintendo are doing the same?

Yeah it would be interesting to know if they also the same as Sony .
Mat can you give us a answer on that ?

 

[Somnia]

So even more strange, does that mean MS and Nintendo are doing the same?

We know MS 1st party titles have the ***'s for no digital #'s on NPD, so I think so?

I really wish we knew the digital numbers for 1st party titles. I feel like with MS going games as a service and online focused plus play anywhere that they hit a higher % of digital than other 1st party games. I mean I could be completely wrong on that though since we have no idea! We know Halo 5 did really great digitally and that's about all we know.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Arcade racers, kart racers, platformees, fps set outside of sprint and sight aiming, extreme sports and the list goes on. I'd love to see a new hydro, or water inspired game.

All of these genres exist on the current platforms as indies. So it seems what you're actually asking for is expensive retail versions of these genres. I therefore don't think it's surprising those are sparse on the ground. That said...

I just don't want to keep seeing last of us, cinematic or open games from Sony. They were so good last gen at getting out a great range of games. Arcade racers, platformers, action, story, rpg and just great titles. I feel they have done an 180 based off what they see in open world honestly.

...this analysis doesn't seem very observant. Even just this year, Sony will release:
Arcade racer - Wipeout
Platformer - Dreams
Action - MatterFall
Story - Detroit
RPG - Horizon

Along with these will come a sim racer, sim sport, arcade sports, brawler, rhythm games, and FPS.

Diversity doesn't seem as low as you claim.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Other 1st parties are not currently included in the digital leader panel. Workin on it.

How do you think new services such as Xbox Games Pass and PlayStation Now (With PS4 games) will affect spend on full priced standalone packaged/digital games?

This has been such an interesting couple of weeks for this!

I don't think the subscription services will negatively impact sales of new packaged/digital games significantly, at least not in the short/mid term.

In fact, I think there's opportunity for franchises to be tested for interest and potentially revived, which could potentially lead to higher overall sales.

I do think the potential for exponential growth exists for subscription spending, and I do think that the Xbox Game Pass will be a more appealing option for consumers with a higher time aligned adoption rate than PSNow.

So I'm bullish, just have to see how XGP is executed.

What do you think?

 

[watdaeff4]

A Halo game not charting in the NPD while a niche Japanese exclusive PS4 game like Nioh did.

Really puts in perspective how weak this generation is for Microsoft.

Yeah, Halo Wars is a good indication. I mean it's an RTS spinoff title on a console. Those always do amazingly well. MS and Halo are dad.

Separate point, For Honor selling more on Xbox than PS is very likely

Spoiler

check that....absolutely

due to the differences in new game availability for the month. To say otherwise is as disingenuous as the post I'm quoting.

 

[iceblade997]

Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World selling more than Pokemon Sun is surprising...

Pretty much where im at.

Same here tbh. I tend to have most fun with single player, story heavy experiences, and there are others making those types of games and enough games that've already released that I never got to that it's easier to skip over the stuff that caters to the MP heavy crowd without feeling like I'm missing out. It's great that there's something for everyone out there, frankly. In the end, especially this year, everyone is coming out on top and having a bunch to play.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

This has been such an interesting couple of weeks for this!

I don't think the subscription services will negatively impact sales of new packaged/digital games significantly, at least not in the short/mid term.

In fact, I think there's opportunity for franchises to be tested for interest and potentially revived, which could potentially lead to higher overall sales.

I do think the potential for exponential growth exists for subscription spending, and I do think that the Xbox Game Pass will be a more appealing option for consumers with a higher time aligned adoption rate than PSNow.

So I'm bullish, just have to see how XGP is executed.

What do you think?

I think it going to be interesting to see how it does on XB1.
Still i think it's a stop gap compare to PSNow since it still tie into hardware .

 

[Kill3r7]

I think it going to be interesting to see how it does on XB1.
Still i think it's a stop gap compare to PSNow since it still tie into hardware .

PSNow will be as well come this fall. PS4 and PC only.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

PSNow will be as well come this fall. PS4 and PC only.

Yeah but we all know the goal of PSNow is a streaming service not tie into hardware .
I sure MS wants the same and this is there first step .
Still truth be told i don't think PSNow has went the way Sony wanted .
It still tie into the Sony ecosystem of hardware mostly and now PC .

 

[timberger]

Yeah, Halo Wars is a good indication. I mean it's an RTS spinoff title on a console. Those always do amazingly well. MS and Halo are dad.

Yet Halo Wars 1 debuted at number 3 in the npd chart with over 600k sales.

 

[c0de]

Yeah but we all know the goal of PSNow is a streaming service not tie into hardware .
I sure MS wants the same and this is there first step .

But I think it's strange that for that service they now *cut* clients instead of putting it to even more devices.
XGP is way more appealing to gamers, in my opinion, as it doesn't have the worse IQ and additional lag PSNow "features" but additionally it's not even world wide available.
With MS blurring the lines between PC and Xbox more than ever, I doubt they are after a game streaming service (although they are potentially way better prepared because of Azure).

 

[Conduit]

Nioh digital should be high.

Also Xbox > PS4 on For Honor by a lot is interesting.

That's a very nice start for Nioh I'd say.

Also For Honor selling more on Xbox than PS4 is pretty interesting

Let's be realistic. PS4 Q1 is packed with games compared to Xbone releases. I'm not surprised in any way. And others too.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

where did we get the Nioh sold 230 retail from ? I saw it quoted but not sourced

Harker.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

But I think it's strange that for that service they now *cut* clients instead of putting it to even more devices.
XGP is way more appealing to gamers, in my opinion, as it doesn't have the worse IQ and additional lag PSNow "features" but additionally it's not even world wide available.
With MS blurring the lines between PC and Xbox more than ever, I doubt they are after a game streaming service (although they are potentially way better prepared because of Azure).

I edit my post but yes i don't think PSNow has gone the way Sony wanted .
Right now XGP is more appealing since it's not streaming for some users and even then data caps can get in the way .
I think there all after that it's just we don't have the internet infrastructure yet for it .

 

[Liabe Brave]

XGP is way more appealing to gamers, in my opinion, as it doesn't have the worse IQ and additional lag PSNow "features" but additionally it's not even world wide available.

XGP is also cheaper. But, it'll have far fewer games, and it also plays much less nicely with ISP data caps. I think which is preferable is contingent on the user's situation.

 

[watdaeff4]

Yet Halo Wars 1 debuted at number 3 in the npd chart with over 600k sales.

Good point.

Because the current XB1 user base is as high as the 360 was at that point.

And the physical:digital ratio are probably exactly the same as well. ESP with Play Anywhere.

Those two things probably don't factor in at all.

That being said yes obviously there was a decline but to act like HW2 is a clear sign is just silly IMO

 

[noobie]

Where softwares numbers have been given?

 

[Nirolak]

Or it's just a down month and the Switch will make things right in March and going forward.

The Switch wouldn't change generational timing for Sony or Microsoft though.

In fact, that's a console that's following up a four year lifecycle box.

 

[Interfectum]

I do think the potential for exponential growth exists for subscription spending, and I do think that the Xbox Game Pass will be a more appealing option for consumers with a higher time aligned adoption rate than PSNow.

So I'm bullish, just have to see how XGP is executed.

What do you think?

I think PS Now is a non-starter that Sony refuses to let go of. I think XGP is going to take off, though, and it could impact what people buy on Xbox depending on what's available, imo.

What do you think of this month's sales results? Any overall thoughts on industry health?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The Switch wouldn't change generational timing for Sony or Microsoft though.

In fact, that's a console that's following up a four year lifecycle box.

Yeah we are going back to 6 years gens ( for Sony at least) even with mid gen upgrades .

 

[Kill3r7]

Yet Halo Wars 1 debuted at number 3 in the npd chart with over 600k sales.

HW is the best selling RTS game on consoles. It came out at a time where putting Halo on a can of soda meant more sales. So yeah not all that surprising that HW2 failed to meet its performance levels.

 

[RexNovis]

I think PS Now is a non-starter that Sony refuses to let go of. I think XGP is going to take off, though, and it could impact what people buy on Xbox depending on what's available, imo.

What do you think of this month's sales results? Any overall thoughts on industry health?

I think pricing and the realities of current internet infrastructure are the reason PS Now failed to make a splash of any sort. I think the technology behind PS Now has a lot of promise with things like share play but I don't think the application and execution with PS Now has been appealing enough to the average consumer. They could certainly improve this in the future though.

XBGP is probably going to do very very well going by how successful EA Access has proven to be on XB1. That said prolonged succes will depend heavily on their library of games and how often they cycle through availablility. It's got promise though.

Good point.

Because the current XB1 user base is as high as the 360 was at that point.

And the physical:digital ratio are probably exactly the same as well. ESP with Play Anywhere.

Those two things probably don't factor in at all.

That being said yes obviously there was a decline but to act like HW2 is a clear sign is just silly IMO

I understand what you're getting at here but honestly with Nioh being less than 230k and ranking this month that does it bode well at all for the sales of Halo Wars 2. Most expected it not to do well but few expected it to do that poorly.

 

[c0de]

XGP is also cheaper. But, it'll have far fewer games, and it also plays much less nicely with ISP data caps. I think which is preferable is contingent on the user's situation.

That is for sure It will be interesting to see if Sony's infrastructure is even prepared for many concurrent users and I am curious how the general reception of PSNow will be, when many thousand users want to play at the same time.

 

[MatPiscatella]

What do you think of this month's sales results? Any overall thoughts on industry health?

For Honor had a huge start, Nioh put up great numbers. Overall sales, well, the less said about them the better.

As for industry health, when games come out they sell great. More games should come out. They'd sell good too. If enough new games came out, market sales would go up.

90% of variability in retail sales from year to year between 2010-2016 can be explained by changes in release count.

So health of consumer demand is fantastic. Health of producing enough games to satiate apparent demand due to increasing dev costs and associated risk aversion is the bigger question.

That is for sure It will be interesting to see if Sony's infrastructure is even prepared for many concurrent users and I am curious how the general reception of PSNow will be, when many thousand users want to play at the same time.

I'm so confused.

 

[watdaeff4]

I think pricing and the realities of current internet infrastructure are the reason PS Now failed to make a splash of any sort. I think the technology behind PS Now has a lot of promise with things like share play but I don't think the application and execution with PS Now has been appealing enough to the average consumer. They could certainly improve this in the future though.

XBGP is probably going to do very very well going by how successful EA Access has proven to be on XB1. That said prolonged succes will depend heavily on their library of games and how often they cycle through availablility. It's got promise though.



I understand what you're getting at here but honestly with Nioh being less than 230k and ranking this month that does it bode well at all for the sales of Halo Wars 2. Most expected it not to do well but few expected it to do that poorly.

Agree with your views on PSNow. I tried it once and wasn't a fan of the results (and the current pricing)

Regarding HW2: I understand what you are saying but regardless of HW1 sales; it's still an RTS which is not a popular genre these days in in PC land much less consoles.
Plus As you stated we are seeing sales of digital skew towards 50% in some cases. While I doubt that's the case here that's it's 50%, since it's a Play Anywhere title I wouldn't be surprised if it's more than 30-35%

 

[c0de]

I'm so confused.

Let me help you - what is confusing you?

 

[MatPiscatella]

Let me help you - what is confusing you?

PSNow exists though. Or are you kidding? Or are you referring to when PS4 games will be added?

 

[Nirolak]

For Honor had a huge start, Nioh put up great numbers. Overall sales, well, the less said about them the better.

As for industry health, when games come out they sell great. More games should come out. They'd sell good too. If enough new games came out, market sales would go up.

90% of variability in retail sales from year to year between 2010-2016 can be explained by changes in release count.

So health of consumer demand is fantastic. Health of producing enough games to satiate apparent demand due to increasing dev costs and associated risk aversion is the bigger question.

Do you think the amount of revenue being lost at retail among AAA games might actually just be getting made up on additional revenue for existing games (DLC, season passes, microtransactions) and digital only titles (ARK, Rocket League...)?

Like I wonder if the console software industry would actually look down when you bundle all the digital revenue on consoles that aren't tracked by what NPD covers.

 

[watdaeff4]

PSNow exists though. Or are you kidding? Or are you referring to when PS4 games will be added?

I took it he meant when PS4 games are added

 

[c0de]

PSNow exists though. Or are you kidding? Or are you referring to when PS4 games will be added?

I am not kidding - I am questioning that currently many users are putting the service under heavy pressure and I expect Sony to move forward in terms of marketing and also think that many users will try it for PS4 games once they are available they don't want to buy.
If Sony wants it to be a success, they will have to have more subscribers which of course will put the servers and network and anything that belongs to this service under load, keeping in mind that the slightest impact on both performance and/or network will be perceivable by customers which is where video streaming for example is lot more tolerant.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Do you think the amount of revenue being lost at retail among AAA games might actually just be getting made up on additional revenue for existing games (DLC, season passes, microtransactions) and digital only titles (ARK, Rocket League...)?

Like I wonder if the console software industry would actually look down when you bundle all the digital revenue on consoles that aren't tracked by what NPD covers.

It looks really good. This is most easily seen in big pub earnings reports. Things are going quite well when you look at total spend.

I was just referring to the reported spend and how that could go up as well if there were more games.

Generally? More games is the answer to everything. Well, everything except where to find the money and people to make them.

I am not kidding - I am questioning that currently many users are putting the service under heavy pressure and I expect Sony to move forward in terms of marketing and also think that many users will try it for PS4 games once they are available they don't want to buy.
If Sony wants it to be a success, they will have to have more subscribers which of course will put the servers and network and anything that belongs to this service under load, keeping in mind that the slightest impact on both performance and/or network will be perceivable by customers which is where video streaming for example is lot more tolerant.

Ah. You're wondering if PSNow is scalable, and whether or not it's currently resourced appropriately. Now I understand your point. I have no idea on both lol.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

It looks really good. This is most easily seen in big pub earnings reports. Things are going quite well when you look at total spend.

I was just referring to the reported spend and how that could go up as well if there were more games.

Generally? More games is the answer to everything. Well, everything except where to find the money and people to make them.

At this point i don't even think money is as much as a problem as the big pubs being risk averse .
They are making a good amount of profit but only Ubi really seem to be investing in a whole bunch of new IP .
Even if the IPs are games as service types.

 

[Kill3r7]

Generally? More games is the answer to everything. Well, everything except where to find the money and people to make them.

Good point. Although at times it seems like a handful of publishers control the market. Sales seem to be heavily skewed towards AAA games at least in the console space.

 

[Nirolak]

It looks really good. This is most easily seen in big pub earnings reports. Things are going quite well when you look at total spend.

I was just referring to the reported spend and how that could go up as well if there were more games.

Generally? More games is the answer to everything. Well, everything except where to find the money and people to make them.

On that final sentence, do you think the latter might actually be the bigger problem than the former?

I look at corporate job sites, and even smaller studios often have 20-40+ job openings, and publishers lament how there aren't many great M&A targets for them to work with to make more high quality content.

Like a lot of these publishers are very cash rich, and could certainly afford to make more games, but they seem to struggle to find the staff to do so.

To use a really easy example, Naughty Dog split into two teams to make Uncharted 3 and The Last of Us, but had to re-merge into one team to make Uncharted 4. The same happened with CD Projekt and The Witcher 3/Cyberpunk 2077, despite them now being much closer to 500 staff than 200.

And if you can only hire 40 extra staff members, or those staff are maybe only qualified to make a more contained game, the studios start turning their second projects into games like GWENT (no retail release) instead of another Witcher AAA WRPG, which would require closer to 400.

 

[Khalifa Jayy]

What is For Honor? I literally don't even know the genre or type of game yet it's selling well apparently? Quite well, even?

 

[sirronoh]

It looks really good. This is most easily seen in big pub earnings reports. Things are going quite well when you look at total spend.

I was just referring to the reported spend and how that could go up as well if there were more games.

Generally? More games is the answer to everything. Well, everything except where to find the money and people to make them.



Ah. You're wondering if PSNow is scalable, and whether or not it's currently resourced appropriately. Now I understand your point. I have no idea on both lol.

Just want to stop in and say that you're doing fantastic work Mat. Love reading your insights here and on Twitter and glad you take the time to share them. I don't have any questions myself that others haven't already asked but I wanted to let you know you definitely have fans here. So thanks!

 

[Primethius]

What is For Honor? I literally don't even know the genre or type of game yet it's selling well apparently? Quite well, even?

It's a fighting game in a lot of ways. Just one currently infested with gear that makes skill redundant in major modes and borked balancing. I'd be curious to see how its legs hold up vs. something like Siege which had far better post launch support and balancing.

 

[Nirolak]

What is For Honor? I literally don't even know the genre or type of game yet it's selling well apparently? Quite well, even?

It's a fighting game presented as a third person action game.

The main mode is a 4v4 territory control game (plus a ton of AI units) where you duel as Knights, Vikings, or Samurai is a fairly indepth melee combat system with lots of fighting game mechanics baked in.

There's full 3D movement like you'd see in any other third person game like the Souls series of whatever.

There are also 1v1 and 2v2 duel modes that are a bit more like joining a fighting game match.

Edit:

This might help visualize it:

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

I see just Nioh and KH in the top 10, the rest is available on Xbox.

I don't think this is enough to make For Honor sell "a lot" more on Xbox One.

Remember the PS4 and XB1 aren't that far apart in the US.

WW sales for FH obviously are going to be higher on PS4 than XB1.

And FH I think just isn't really the kind of game PS4 owners really like. PSX is a small sample size granted but all the days I was there the line was pretty short or nonexistent.

 

[Rymuth]

What is For Honor? I literally don't even know the genre or type of game yet it's selling well apparently? Quite well, even?

75% Street Fighter
25% Dynasty Warriors