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[donny2112]

I'd like to know the formula that Donny uses..just outta curiousity ....I love forecasting, even with thousands of variables in the equation.

I try to use actual data with some kind of markup to account for unknown data, when possible. January was particularly nice for Wii, since Nintendo told us it was at 370K for the first three weeks in Europe, so I assumed constant sales in Week 4 and got ~480K for Europe. I then added 70K to try to compensate for other regions not named U.S., Japan, or Canada (e.g. Australia averaged ~35K / month in the first half of 2008 and that average increased in the second half of the year, so that should make up a good portion of the markup.)

Usually, there isn't as much recent data to go with, though. As sort of a placeholder number, I'm currently using 75% of U.S.+Canada as "everything else" for 360 and 95% of U.S.+Canada as "everything else" for PS3 unless more accurate data is available. This is based on Nintendo's report of European weekly hardware sales through CW41 for 2008 (with a ~10-15% increase for all non-European, U.S., Japanese, or Canadian territories) and comparing it to the U.S.+Canada monthlies in the same timespan.

Not a single formula, in particular, but just trying to fit with the available data, whenever possible.

Hey. Do I not exist donny?

No because he admits they are estimates, but explains how he calculates them and uses solid numbers whenever possible.

Thanks!

 

[TheGreatDave]

I (and another guy before me) asked donny a question and he already replied back to the previous poster before my post.

And yeah, this npd is slooow. I bet there's going to be more replies on the weekly RB dlc announcement tomorrow. smh

I'll get a GIF ready.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

Guys. NSMB came out in 2006. 2006.

Why aren't more people freaking out in awe and wonder?

Anyway, Nintendo won't be satisfied until EVERY of their games sell so well and for so long. This is why SMG was not really a Wii Super Mario game (in fact, like MP3:C, I think its concept and development started long before they knew the details of Wii). I would go so far as to say that other than WiiSports and a few other ground-up Wii examples, we really don't know what a Nintendo Wii game looks like.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

So I guess Sony isn't posting reactions to NPD tonight.

Retaliation for banning Hoffman?

 

[Stoney Mason]

NPD used to be more interesting...

Yeah people need to stop saying that. The last two months were fine and the next two months will be fascinating. January numbers are always a drop off as nothing gets released during the month and it follows the two biggest sales months of the year.

 

[donny2112]

Guys. NSMB came out in 2006. 2006.

Why aren't more people freaking out in awe and wonder?

Because Mario Kart DS came out in 2005. 2005.

Spoiler

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Because Mario Kart DS came out in 2005. 2005.

Spoiler

It's like he's some sophisticated AI.

At least he's not hacking the internets.

 

[Fredescu]

Anyway, Nintendo won't be satisfied until EVERY of their games sell so well and for so long. This is why SMG was not really a Wii Super Mario game

You're right that the concept is pre-Wii, but wrong that it's not still selling. Check out the PAL sales thread, SMG is still in the top ten for a number of European countries.

 

[Regulus Tera]

I just got a site error. :lol Kinda late for them but whatever.

 

[soldat7]

Guys. NSMB came out in 2006. 2006.

Why aren't more people freaking out in awe and wonder?

Because NSMB is not a game that inspires awe or wonder, that's why.

It's one of the most no-brainer titles to buy with the purchase of a new DS. That's like being surprised that Halo was still selling well several years after its release in '01 on the Xbox.

I personally think it stinks that Nintendo is satisfied with sitting on the success of titles such as NSMB. I doubt we'll see a sequel to that or Mario Kart DS anytime soon.

 

[pgtl_10]

Makes you wonder who is the bigger defense force. The one that took his time to create this GIF, or the ones that the GIF is relating too. Serious business, this console war stuff. :lol

It's from a you tube video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwEkU5H1Wew

 

[Jammy]

I don't get why people always get "sad" or bitch about Super Mario Galaxy's sales. The game freaking sold more than 7 million copies already. That's more than you can say of any single SKU game on any other system outside of Halo 3. It's nuts. Just because the game doesn't have the 20 million that Wii Play does or the 14 milion that Mario Kart Wii has already doesn't mean it's a travesty or that people have shitty taste in games...

 

[HK-47]

Go to by a new server for your school then. Money's cheap.

Stupidity is priceless though, right? Cause you are hoarding it like gold

 

[Skiptastic]

I already own it. I'm starting another go at keeping a regular fitness regiment soon. It will be assisting.

 

[Jag22]

Anyone else think Left 4 Dead will end up with higher sales numbers than Killzone 2? When it's all said and done (talking about the 360 version only).

I just don't see Killzone 2 having legs like left 4 Dead.

 

[DuckRacer]

I'll get a GIF ready.

get avril flipping the bird when her music isn't announced tomorrow

 

[Arpharmd B]

If next month NPD is going to be any fun, Hoffman has to be unbanned.

 

[soldat7]

It's a shame it has taken the closures of many studios before they realize they ****ed up backing the HD consoles, but the proof is in the pudding. Software sells on Wii.

20/30 titles on Wii is something that you only ignore if you WANT to go bankrupt and close up shop. Hopefully this will lead to more quality Wii support.

Really? The Wii is not at that critical mass point yet. There is no way third-parties would have weathered the storm (especially in this economy) had they chased after the Wii more aggressively.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Really? The Wii is not at that critical mass point yet.

hahahahahhahahahhahahahahaha

No it reached that a while ago third parties just haven't realized it

 

[boiled goose]

Really? The Wii is not at that critical mass point yet. There is no way third-parties would have weathered the storm (especially in this economy) had they chased after the Wii more aggressively.

I think it as more to do with HD development budgets that got out of control than not developing for Wii.

It's not just not developing for wii that hurt them... it's having a terrible business model. when the life and death of your company depends on one of your games being a smash blockbuster hit, then you have the wrong business model. When bad economic times come and you go out of business, then you have the wrong business model.

 

[santouras]

It's called memory.

your browser has issues

 

[Bizzyb]

Really? The Wii is not at that critical mass point yet. There is no way third-parties would have weathered the storm (especially in this economy) had they chased after the Wii more aggressively.

HD production costs are just way too risky in this failing economy. They would have fared much better had they made more and better attempts on Nintendo's platform

20/30 titles are on Nintendo's platforms and you say Wii is not at critical mass point yet? :lol
WTF are you smoking?

 

[Ydahs]

Wow @ Wii and DS

Has their been any additional sales information released? This thread is too long to skim through.

 

[SilverLunar]

Wow @ Wii and DS

Has their been any additional sales information released? This thread is too long to skim through.

Don't bother, nothing yet.

 

[soldat7]

HD production costs are just way too risky in this failing economy. They would have fared much better had they made more and better attempts on Nintendo's platform

20/30 titles are on Nintendo's platforms and you say Wii is not at critical mass point yet? :lol
WTF are you smoking?

Do you realize how many third-party devs make games for the HD platforms? Do you honestly think that the Wii, savior it may be, could sustain all of them? Not all third-party devs focusing on the HD platforms are tanking. Perhaps if the Wii were at 100 million things would be different. Who knows.

Just because a developer targets a game for a successful platform doesn't mean it will be successful. There have been several great third-party Wii games with lukewarm sales and too many to count on the DS.

I think it as more to do with HD development budgets that got out of control than not developing for Wii.

It's not just not developing for wii that hurt them... it's having a terrible business model. when the life and death of your company depends on one of your games being a smash blockbuster hit, then you have the wrong business model. When bad economic times come and you go out of business, then you have the wrong business model.

Good argument. My argument is that the Wii may not have necessarily been the right business model for them either. Some of them? Sure. All of them? No.

 

[Gaborn]

Wow @ Wii and DS

Has their been any additional sales information released? This thread is too long to skim through.

Just that according to Nintendo PR 20 of the top 30 games are on Nintendo systems, no specifics I think yet.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

You're right that the concept is pre-Wii, but wrong that it's not still selling. Check out the PAL sales thread, SMG is still in the top ten for a number of European countries.

I don't get why people always get "sad" or bitch about Super Mario Galaxy's sales. The game freaking sold more than 7 million copies already. That's more than you can say of any single SKU game on any other system outside of Halo 3. It's nuts. Just because the game doesn't have the 20 million that Wii Play does or the 14 milion that Mario Kart Wii has already doesn't mean it's a travesty or that people have shitty taste in games...

I'm sure it is selling, and by the end of the generation, I don't think it will have a problem being one of the best-selling games this generation, beating out Halo 3, GTAIV, etc. But I meant more at the level of NSMB, PARTICULARLY in Japan.

 

[Arde5643]

It's a shame it has taken the closures of many studios before they realize they ****ed up backing the HD consoles, but the proof is in the pudding. Software sells on Wii.

20/30 titles on Wii is something that you only ignore if you WANT to go bankrupt and close up shop. Hopefully this will lead to more quality Wii support.

I think it's 20/30 titles on Wii and DS since Ninty said 20/30 titles made for Nintendo systems and not just Wii.

 

[PantherLotus]

US: HD Systems Losing Still More Ground to the Wii
Not posting my own thread this month, but thought you guys would like to read some of what I'm thinking.

US - The Wii has now surpassed all gains that the HD Console market made before the tiny-white-system-that-could went on sale. Combined, the XBOX 360 and the Playstation 3 have a 3.01 million system lead on the Wii--a little less than what they started with when the Wii launched.

The HD systems looked to be gaining momentum against the onslaught of Nintendo's mass-audience appeal, and at one point had a 5.4 million system lead on the Wii.

Now, that lead is disappearing just as quickly as copies of Wii Fit are moving off the shelf. Why is such a nebulous number important? Because analysts, including this one, have suggested that perhaps the combined numbers of HD system sales were keeping 3rd parties from making serious games for the Wii.

That argument barely holds water at this point...

(read full article)

 

[Htown]

I'm sure it is selling, and by the end of the generation, I don't think it will have a problem being one of the best-selling games this generation, beating out Halo 3, GTAIV, etc. But I meant more at the level of NSMB, PARTICULARLY in Japan.

That's just not going to happen for ANY console game in japan.

Go into any Media Create thread and you'll see that Japan is all about portables.

 

[giuliu]

Did you realize that NPD data is estimated? Really, it is. Also, you might not know this, but when juniors are banned, it tends to be permanent. If I were you I'd be logging out of GAF and finding something less stressful to do for a while, until I calmed down.

So we should treat his estimated numbers from other territories like we treat NPD's estimates in NA?
ok then, you're the boss.

So where is the "World wide sales results for January 2009" thread?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Man, the Nintendo train is running full steam ahead.

The DS sales are insane compared to the PSP and the Wii just beats the PS3 and the X360 to next week.

 

[donny2112]

So we should treat his estimated numbers from other territories like we treat NPD's estimates in NA?

bmf was just informing you that this thread was all about estimated data, since you said

estimated data really shouldn't be here.

I really don't think he was trying to compare my amateur estimates to a professional tracking firm.

 

[giuliu]

bmf was just informing you that this thread was all about estimated data, since you said



I really don't think he was trying to compare my amateur estimates to a professional tracking firm.

my mistake.
what I meant was that your amateur estimates shouldn't be here for a thread that is for professional tracking data, like you just said.

 

[ZeoVGM]

So we should treat his estimated numbers from other territories like we treat NPD's estimates in NA?
ok then, you're the boss.

So where is the "World wide sales results for January 2009" thread?

I left earlier and come back to you doing the same stuff? Relax dude.

 

[shykyoichi]

I know I've already responded, and its a re-run, but what the hell.

The cornered-on-his-own-ship, full of rage and pain, and defiantly fighting a losing day is, well, somewhat apt.

That should get an award.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

So we should treat his estimated numbers from other territories like we treat NPD's estimates in NA?
ok then, you're the boss.

So where is the "World wide sales results for January 2009" thread?

I was just pointing out that the only numbers we have are estimates, and no, not all estimates are created equal. I'd easily trust Donny's over ioi's, but NPD's are just flat better than either, I'm sure. Hell, if you follow Media Create threads, you'll notice that Media Create and Famitsu always have quite a bit of divergence. It's a matter of trust, and Donny has been fairly open about his numbers, and most of GAF has grown to trust him, and that's pretty much the end of it.

Anyhoo, I'm tired of reading your posts, so I'm sure you'll spend the rest of your GAF career on my ignore list. Toodles.

 

[Chumly]

So we should treat his estimated numbers from other territories like we treat NPD's estimates in NA?
ok then, you're the boss.

So where is the "World wide sales results for January 2009" thread?

Dude the reason v g chartz is banned is because they make up their own US sales and say they are correct over NPD. mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmk???? Donny admits he uses estimates and he uses only NPD data for US, MC for Japan, and shipment data plus other leaks for europe. Thats why its his analysis is allowed.

 

[PantherLotus]

my mistake.
what I meant was that your amateur estimates shouldn't be here for a thread that is for professional tracking data, like you just said.

I think you need to spend a few minutes here learning about who's who before you start posting bullshit. Point out errors in the data or move the fuck on. And don't try attacking Donny's rep. The dude is as spotless and transparent as it comes around sales-age, something that we need more of around here, not less.

 

[ZeoVGM]

Out of curiosity, how exactly do we know that site's numbers are made up and why exactly is it banned? I assume it's more than "they estimate numbers".

 

[Chumly]

I think you need to spend a few minutes here learning about who's who before you start posting bullshit. Point out errors in the data or move the fuck on.

Agreed plz point out why donny's data is OMG SO FAR FUCKING OFF.

 

[PantherLotus]

Out of curiosity, how exactly do we know that site's numbers are made up and why exactly is it banned? I assume it's more than "they estimate numbers".

Through multitudinous posts here on gaf by i-o-i and a thorough debunking of his bullshit by gamasutra. Article is around here somewhere. Basically, he "estimates" sales using educated guesses and then corrects his data to more closely match NPD totals after they're posted.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

That should get an award.

He is already worshiped as a god, why would he need an award?

 

[Chumly]

Out of curiosity, how exactly do we know that site's numbers are made up and why exactly is it banned? I assume it's more than "they estimate numbers".

They used to pull NPD numbers and change them slightly. NPD got made and threatened to sue. So they switched to a weekly basis and their numbers became HIGHLY irregular (Had to start relying on guesstamites). They guess based off of shipment data, reports they see online, and supposedly going around and looking at stores (LOL) or possible having sales data for a couple of stores in a single city or such. Many instances they will report sell-through greater than Wii and DS shipments which isnt exactly fucking possible (Happens ALL THE TIME with games). They have error margins that exceed 20-50% VERY OFTEN which is ridiculous (Hence they are banned).

 

[Peronthious]

Through multitudinous posts here on gaf by i-o-i and a thorough debunking of his bullshit by gamasutra. Article is around here somewhere. Basically, he "estimates" sales using educated guesses and then corrects his data to more closely match NPD totals after they're posted.

I believe this is the article you're thinking of. Suffice to say they're fine for a bystander to get some perception of how things are doing, but for sales-age they don't even come close.

 

[Fuzzy]

Through multitudinous posts here on gaf by i-o-i and a thorough debunking of his bullshit by gamasutra. Article is around here somewhere. Basically, he "estimates" sales using educated guesses and then corrects his data to more closely match NPD totals after they're posted.

I still remember when he used to just average the Japanese trackers together and then say he was more accurate than all of them. :lol

 

[duk]

same story each month?

 

[giuliu]

I think you need to spend a few minutes here learning about who's who before you start posting bullshit. Point out errors in the data or move the fuck on. And don't try attacking Donny's rep. The dude is as spotless and transparent as it comes around sales-age, something that we need more of around here, not less.

How about take Japan + NPD data and compare it to his estimate.
we subtract so we will get another thread
There are your media crate weekly
and NPD monthly

We're missing the "estimated rest of the world sales", we need more of this!
we should post it monthly since we have his spotless estimated data.

 

[Gadfly]

It's a shame it has taken the closures of many studios before they realize they ****ed up backing the HD consoles, but the proof is in the pudding. Software sells on Wii.

20/30 titles on Wii is something that you only ignore if you WANT to go bankrupt and close up shop. Hopefully this will lead to more quality Wii support.

is it on Wii or on Nintendo platforms? I thought the PR said Nintendo platforms.

 

[Chumly]

How about take Japan + NPD data and compare it to his estimate.
we subtract so we will get another thread
There are your media crate weekly
and NPD monthly

We're missing the "estimated rest of the world sales", we need more of this!
we should post it monthly since we have his spotless estimated data.

:lol :lol :lol :lol

So which permabanned alt account are you? Im curious.

Donny told you how he makes estimates on Europe and you continue to act like a jackass